The UMP is not going to dissolve, what on earth is Invictus talking about? Sarkozy, despite his massive unpopularity, still managed to win a high percentage, meaning his party is still very organized (and Sarkozy is a Nixonian style dirty trick campaigner). Anyway Chirac himself apparently didn't think that defeating Sarkozy would lead to his coalition falling apart, considering he endorsed Hollande, calling him a 'true statesman'.
The much vaunted Sarkozy-Merkel love affair resulted in little more than dithering and myopic austerity as the European economy fell into a double-dip recession. And if the PS are 'pinkos', I'm an astronaut. The Parti Socialiste abandoned any inkling of socialism long ago in the Mitterand years.
Hollande is a generic consensus manager type. He is not a firebrand by any stretch, and he's a very experienced political operator. I mean this guy overcame the fact that one of his main rivals, Royal, is his estranged partner/mother of his children. Royal endorsed him. He overcame the DSK fiasco. He overcame the unusually intense scrutiny paid to his companion, Ms. Trierweiler, who Sarkozy had the police investigate (illegally).
Every dirty trick the slimy Sarkozy threw at Hollande and the PS, he overcame.
But it says something that Redhouse & Invictus freak out even if a generic center-left politician wins office. What exactly impressed you about Sarkozy? His repeal of the sexual harassment laws? His continual race-baiting whenever his popularity sagged? His total disregard for the political independence of the French courts?