Fall 1901
Now is when the board starts to take shape. Some alliances are starting to coalesce, and this is where diplomacy gets interesting. It’s a struggle for everybody. Those who are doing well have to convince the board that they’re friendly and everybody shouldn’t freak out and attack them. Those who are doing poorly need to scramble, look for a buddy, and try to make their case. Most alliances aren’t set in stone, so with some creative wordsmithing, it may be possible to pry one ally from another and turn the direction of the game. Don’t be desperate; make a solid case as to why it’s better to work with you than to work with somebody else. (E.g. Your ally is bigger than you and he might stab you. It’s better to work with me, since I’m too small to threaten you, and I’m happy to help you take down your ally.) It’s only 1901, so there’s lots of game left. That being the case, feel free to finalize your orders early in the build and retreat phases to keep the game moving. Take your time in the Spring/Fall movement phases though. It’s important to get that right. This early in the game, the process of ranking countries is somewhat arbitrary, but, essentially, positions 1-3 should be smiling, 4-5 are not in bad shape, and 6-7 are in big trouble.
1. England. By a hairsbreadth, you’re in the lead. Right now, his alliance with France is in lockstep. Germany had no chance to defend Belgium, but he could have at least bounced England in Holland. Instead, he let an English army right in. As a result of his blunder, England’s up two builds, which I expect will be F Edi and A Lon. I’ll rank England just a notch ahead of France because, assuming the alliance holds up for a few years, his path will be through the lowest ranked nations, while France will have to push himself through some tougher opposition. Again, assuming the alliance holds up, I expect him to be poised to stay a center or two ahead of France from ’03 onward.
2. France. Checking on your profile, he’s been a member of this site for a long time and have played over 100 games. However, he’s joined games with awfully tough competition and has a lot of defeats. With that kind of a record, he should be smiling after his 1901 season in this game. France’s confident opening has worked out great. He’ll be all set to pick up Portugal when he gets around to it. His fleet in the South Coast of Spain can slide back to pick up Portugal, guard the Med waters, or swing up north behind England. It’s just in a great spot. He’s got two builds coming; and I have a feeling that, rather than the usual F Bre A Par, he’ll be opportunistic and build the fleet in Mar. Just a guess.
3. Austria. You’re still solidly in third, and your TA assures me that you are a great student. You listen to the concepts passed on by your TA and formulate your own strategy. That’s the mark of a great Diplomacy player. Italy is again trying a bizarre movement into Venice, which Austria’s casually bounced. Russia is still not threatening at all. It doesn’t look like he’s made anybody mad yet, so the opportunity for alliances is wide open. Two builds for Austria: F Tri A Buda.
4. Turkey. This is tough. I’m not sure where to put you, so I’m putting you squarely in the middle. If Turkey had a solid alliance lined up with either Austria or Italy, then I can understand shutting Russia out of Rumania. But if he doesn’t, then he’s living on borrowed time. His single build in Smyrna is quite likely to be a fleet, but, unfortunately, his fleets aren’t adjacent so they won’t be able to coordinate moves. Moving Con to Smy in the fall would have set up for a Con fleet build and a stronger position. Turkey is naturally well defended, so if he can manage to, one way or another, get to 5 SC’s, he’ll be tough to kill.
5. Italy. It may be that Turkey is without friends, and it may be that you are too. Italy has one build coming, which may be F Nap. Right now, he’s caught in a tough spot. Even if his lazy movement into Trieste was planned with Austria, and Austria is his ally, why would the Italian ask his ally to tie up one of his pieces when it could be productively used? Fortunately, he’s got plenty of potential to strike an alliance and find a place to expand.
6. Russia. In the Spring, I couldn’t have been more pleased with your Warsaw hold. It signaled to the board that Russia was cool and laid back and not a threat. Apparently that line of diplomatic reasoning didn’t hold up. None of Russia’s moves succeeded. Did he get the hint that Germany was going to bounce him in Sweden? Then why not move to the Baltic and threaten three of his centers? The standard fall movement for Russia should typically be F Sev supports Ukr to Rum, or A Ukr supports Sev to Rum. If he knew that Turkey was going to keep hassling him, he should have ordered the latter and built another boat in Sev. It’s just bad news all around. Fortunately, Austria seems to be off his back, and Germany, although unwelcoming, is not in any position to mount a serious attack. No builds for Russia this year.
7. Germany. I was hoping that you would overcome your bad start in the spring and come off with a good fall. It’s not uncommon for Germany to get 3 builds in ’01, and 2 is the standard. 1 is bad, and I expect him to stick an army in Kiel. France and England obviously have decided to do him in, and of his 3 moves this fall, 2 were really bad, and the other wasn’t great. Ruhr should not have moved to Belgium. France had the manpower to support himself in, so Germany should have at least gotten some use out of his Ruhr army and bounced Holland. Covering the unguarded Munich was adequate, but he could have guessed France as being far more likely to support himself into Belgium than to attempt to nab Munich and leave his Belgium attack unsupported. A better move would have been to use Ruhr to support Kiel into Holland, thereby bringing him up to 5 centers and keeping the SC (supply center) counts of England and France (two allies) uneven. Allies like to be evenly matched, so if one has more than the other, the dynamic gets disrupted. Far and away the worst move he could have possibly done this turn was to bounce Russia in Sweden. This does not mean that Germans should never bounce Russians in Sweden, but he should not have here. I’ve soloed with Germany only twice on this site. One time I bounced Russia in Sweden, the other time I didn’t. When I bounced Russia, I was allied with France, who helped kill England for me, so I didn’t need any help from Russia. When I didn’t bounce Russia, France was clumsily attacking me and certainly not helping me dismantle the Brit, so I allowed Russia to take Sweden. He then took Norway also and kept England’s growth contained until I invaded the island and killed him off. In our SoW game, Germany is being attacked by England and France, so allowing Russia to take hold of Scandinavia and put pressure on England is the very very best choice. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. The German player has failed to realize this.