Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

I was fairly confident worcej was town D4 when he was arguing for the Chaqa lynch for the same reasons I was, even though worcej said he thought Chaqa was town. However, at the beginning of D5, worcej confirmed he was soft claiming oracle D3, and one of the reasosn he gave was that he was trying to draw the NK. Obviously the mafia would be less likely instead of more likely to NK the oracle, so I thought worcej slipped as scum. That would mean worcej was bussing Chaqa D4, but with Chaqa turning out to be the cow, I thought this was possible. The point of this is that I now realize it was a mistake to discount what worcej was doing D4, because the detail of his argument should have made me realize that it was very unlikely he was bussing.

On D4, flash made 2 posts that stand out to me:

In reading through the past few pages, I don't understand how we think it could be MYLO today even in the worst possible circumstances. We are 9-5 currently.
If we lynch a townie today it is MYLO tomorrow.

If we lynch a mafia that is the cow, we will be down to 7-4 tomorrow. The only thing the cow will do is it could potentially change a MYLO day into a LYLO day (if we hit the cow today, and mislynch tomorrow it means LYLO instead of MYLO day 6). That's it. I don't think we should be obsessing about it so much.

We now just need to make a choice between EP/darg and stick with it. If it was me I would probably choose darg...but I will leave it up to the townclears to make the final decision.

It is possible dargorygel counterclaimed Espresso because Espresso is his cow target. If that is the case, and Chaqa is town, and the mafia have the double vote, the mafia would win if dargorygel gets lynched with Espresso on his wagon.

Yes, we'e both on the same page right now about just jumping into the EP or Darg wagons. We shouldn't due it at this exact moment.

Even in that worst case scenario it would be 8-4 after lynching and 6-4 after EON. We would be still OK for at least one more day even if that happens.

The first post indicates flash was not accounting for the double vote, which is the same thing I was doing until xorxes brought up the double vote D4. The second post pointed out a mistake I made about the case of dargorygel getting lynched as the cow with Espresso as his target. This indicates that flash was taking the time to consider all possibilities, even cases where dargorygel was the cow. These posts seem very unlikely for scum to fake, so I think flash is town.

[bozotheclown]

So, if I go on the assumption that flash is town, even if Jamie and Espresso were both scum, the third scum would have to be either bo_sox or foodcoats. However, that would mean that 2 scum were arguing that both Espresso and dargorygel were scum, as both bo_sox and foodcoats joined Chaqa in supporting that theory. Since it seems unlikely 2 scum would do this if their plan was to clear a scum Espresso, that leads me to believe Espresso is town. Of course, that would mean that both bo_sox and foodcoats are scum.

The bottom line is that if flash is town, as I believe, then the remaining scum are likely Jamie, bo_sox, and foodcoats.

[bozotheclown]

@foodcoats: You can use that as my input to your survey.

[bozotheclown]

Since it is 5-3, if the mafia have the double vote, and they use it to secure a mislynch, then the game is over. Therefore, we do not want a close vote today. To prevent this, I believe the clears need to vote together and lead the lynch.

[ItsHosuke]

##vote no lynch

[Jamiet99uk]

@Bozo: What convinces you Flash is town? He hasn't contributed much.

[ItsHosuke]

Placeholder as I think we’re at mylo?

[Jamiet99uk]

##vote no lynch

Are you sure that we have this luxury?

[bozotheclown]

Placeholder as I think we’re at mylo?

If the mafia have the human (5/7 chance), it is lylo instead of mylo since they would be able to use the double vote to force a no lynch D8 at 4-3.

[bozotheclown]

@Bozo: What convinces you Flash is town? He hasn't contributed much.

Besides the posts I mentioned from D4, there is this from D3:

When we combine/intersect vapor's RB, and his suggestion of flash...

Maybe those things point to our first scum.

##vote flash2015

I do not think dargorygel would start bussing flash D3 if the mafia really used the RB on Vapor to keep flash from getting scanned by the tracker.

Also, if flash was mafia, he could have claimed DP instead of having dargorygel couterclaim tracker.

[bozotheclown]

Final DP smokescreen results. Return to this if town!DP dies without a reveal.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
bozo (complete) [chaqa]
Vapor (complete) [foodcoats]
foodcoats (complete) [damo]
flash (complete) [bo_sox]
bo_sox (refused)
Jamie (complete) [Jamie]
worcej (refused)
dargorygel (complete) [Brain]
damo (complete) [Bozo]

@Espresso: you argue that scum were forced to counterclaim someone because none of them were able to claim DP, and so they were one fakerole short.

I think that's a reasonable argument, and it applies whether the other Tracker claimant is town or scum, in both cases they decided that the counterclaim gambit was preferrable to claiming DP. Claiming Absorber would have been relatively harmless as far as I can tell.

So, the people unable to claim DP were:

bo_sox (refused)
worcej (refused)

It's hard to believe that the real DP wouldn't have used this opportunity to reveal their target.

dargorygel (complete) [Brain]

Brain had already proven that he was not the target, so dargo here was essentially saying "I am not the DP". You have to admit that this would clear dargo if your hypothesis is true and if we believe that dargo understood what was going on. It is not clear that dargo understood the consequences though.

EspressoPatronum (complete) [damo]
foodcoats (complete) [damo]

Damo never said anything that I noticed about having lost his power, so these two were also very unlikely to get away with a DP claim. The fact that they made it would suggest they were not planning to claim DP, or did not realize what their claim entailed.

Jamie (complete) [Jamie]

If Jamie was planning to claim DP, he may have changed his mind after we said his choice was idiotic.

flash (complete) [bo_sox]

flash was unable to claim DP if bo_sox is town (unless there's something bo_sox hasn't told us). But they could not have known this at the time that the counterclaims were made. So it seems that flash was at least potentially a candidate to claim DP. This makes flash look good.

bozo (complete) [chaqa]

Now that we know that Chaqa is scum, we know that if bozo was scum he would have been free to claim DP. This makes bozo look good.

In conclusion:

flash and bozo get townie points based on this explanation for the cc.

bo_sox, worcej, Espresso, foodcoats, dargo and Jamie get either townie points, or idiot-scum points for backing themselves against a wall. Is that what you were saying before?

The fact that you brought this up yourself would suggest you had thought about it and so you would have not made the claim you made, or you may be double-bluffing.

This post from xorxes about Espresso's DP smokescreen shows why the mafia would avoid claiming DP if Jamie, bo_sox, and foodcoats are the remaining scum. Also, it shows that most of the scum candidates were unprepared for their DP claim, which points to Espresso as town.

[Jamiet99uk]

….

Also, if flash was mafia, he could have claimed DP instead of having dargorygel couterclaim tracker.

But Dargorygel could also have done that, and he didn't... How does this clear Flash?

[foodcoats]

@flash: I was voting Dargo before this all happened. Other scumreads were Bozo and bo_sox. I haven’t read the last... dozens of pages yet though.

Really, lynching me probably isn’t that bad. My role is a bit of a liability for the town anyway and my lynch probably gives us an extra mislynch in the late game.

Looks like when Chaqa declaimed their dislike for the Vapor wagon because of their scumreads, those supposed scumreads were darg, bo and bozo. So darg was being bussed. Was Chaqa bussing 1/3, 2/3 or the whole lot?

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE Chaqa

bo_sox voting for Chaqa one minute before EOD on D2 when emc was leading the vote over Chaqa 6-4 makes it look like he was trying to end on Chaqa without risking him getting lynched. As town, voting for Chaqa there instead of emc would have been risking a tie, and if you read bo_sox's reasoning for not asking to be lynched D1 to use his bulletproof power to clear himself, bo_sox places a high value on lynches.

[bozotheclown]

….

Also, if flash was mafia, he could have claimed DP instead of having dargorygel couterclaim tracker.

But Dargorygel could also have done that, and he didn't... How does this clear Flash?

As the xorxes post points out, dargorygel could not have claimed DP because he said he would have targeted a town clear N1.

[foodcoats]

Xorxes brought up an interesting point about foodcoats and his unchanging scumread of xorxes. Town's reads are usually more fluid than that.

This post from xorxes about Espresso's DP smokescreen shows why the mafia would avoid claiming DP if Jamie, bo_sox, and foodcoats are the remaining scum. Also, it shows that most of the scum candidates were unprepared for their DP claim, which points to Espresso as town.

Why are you both sheeping the dead guy now?

You're attaching to his earlier posts, too, not his final conclusion:

So my scumteam is EP/bozo/Jamiet, but I can't really say that I townread bo or food. I'm most certain about EP.

I believe EP attacked me earlier because I had, long ago, suggested there might be some wisdom in dead-Vecna's reads. Apparently the wisdom of the dead sometimes suits, sometimes does not.

[foodcoats]

Ok since bomb no longer plays, I would like to say:

shame on you bomb for creating a twisted, abnormal take on my 'admiration' of Vecna. It's not even admiration, I find him strong town in many games and openly proclaim when I'm confident

For you to mention sexual innuendos regarding me and him it's really vile. He's a father with kids, I know you don't care about what I think, but at least for him, abstain from this sort of mockery. I'm sorry to Vecna on your behalf

Also, you need to stop talking about players from MU, stop involving them with this site. I'm NOT anyone else, you're CONFUSING and mistaking players and you keep insanely repeating this when it's utterly displeasing

/over

I post this after his leaving because I wasn't about to do a back and forth with bomb on non-game related stuff

This post is fake as shit. You are a total jackass for waiting until he’s no longer here to talk things through and as far as I’m concerned you’re looking for nothing but a target on which to maintain your recently overly emotional rampage. Do you actually have a purpose to anything you’ve done recently other than to be pissed at people or can you simply not handle the pressure you’re under?

##VOTE Vapor

I forgot to clip this last night. This is another D3 post that caught my eye. bo's reasoning for voting Vapor is completed not related to the game.

Also, bo had voted for worcej earlier in the day because of the drunk posts... also not really a game related reason to vote someone.

bo, do you feel these votes were justified? Or were you just casting about for a mislynch?

[bozotheclown]

@flash: I was voting Dargo before this all happened. Other scumreads were Bozo and bo_sox. I haven’t read the last... dozens of pages yet though.

Really, lynching me probably isn’t that bad. My role is a bit of a liability for the town anyway and my lynch probably gives us an extra mislynch in the late game.

Looks like when Chaqa declaimed their dislike for the Vapor wagon because of their scumreads, those supposed scumreads were darg, bo and bozo. So darg was being bussed. Was Chaqa bussing 1/3, 2/3 or the whole lot?

Chaqa only voted for darg and bo_sox when they had no chance of getting lynched.

[foodcoats]

Also, everyone realizes it is equally likely the missing claim is Absorber, right?

[Jamiet99uk]

….

Also, if flash was mafia, he could have claimed DP instead of having dargorygel couterclaim tracker.

But Dargorygel could also have done that, and he didn't... How does this clear Flash?

As the xorxes post points out, dargorygel could not have claimed DP because he said he would have targeted a town clear N1.

Was that person known to be a townclear on N1?