Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

Why do you think Chaqa is scummy? Besides being selfish and wanting to survive until the late game (that’s just selfish poor play, but not necessarily scummy)

Chaqa's claim was unnecessary at the time he made it, and town should try to avoid that claim if at all possible.

SAYS THE GUY WHO WAS CLAMMERING FOR A MASS CLAIM AT THE TIME I MADE IT.

HOLY SHIT HOW HAVE WE NOT LYNCHED HIM YET.

This is incorrect, I only thought a mass claim was valuable to town D1, before the mafia has a chance to coordinate their claims.

[worcej]

Seriously though, the great xorxes, the best towniest towny town player out there, is trying to spin that the scum want to keep tom alive (a town clear) longer so they won't kill him and thus we keep Chaqa around?

Have you lost your mind?

[xorxes]

Why do you think Chaqa is scummy? Besides being selfish and wanting to survive until the late game (that’s just selfish poor play, but not necessarily scummy)

Chaqa's claim was unnecessary at the time he made it, and town should try to avoid that claim if at all possible.

SAYS THE GUY WHO WAS CLAMMERING FOR A MASS CLAIM AT THE TIME I MADE IT.

HOLY SHIT HOW HAVE WE NOT LYNCHED HIM YET.

I hate having to defend bozo because he's been so bad this game, but that doesn't seem true to me. Unless I'm very mistaken, by the time you made your claim bozo was no longer advocating for his plan. I think he only advocated for his plan D1, before scum had a chance to coordinate. Your claim came EOD2.

[bozotheclown]

... I believe the scum team is xorxes, Chaqa, Percy, Espresso, bo_sox.

In clear and concise language, can you please outline why you think darg is the legitimate tracker?

I do not think he would counterclaim the real tracker the way he did as scum. I also question your preemptive attempt to imply that scum would be more likely to crumb the role. I do think it is possible you both could be scum, though.

[xorxes]

@xorxes, have you read my darg ISO? Or even better, have you done a darg ISO yet?

Yes, both.

Assuming scum!darg, how are you drawing the conclusion that Percy is scum?

What? I think Percy is town.

That's not what you said.

"I'm not so sure that Percy and Chaqa are town."

Tbf, I accidentally mischaracterized 'not town' as scum, but it is clear you didn't say Percy is town.

bozo was asking me how I was so sure they were town, and I was telling him I was not so sure. I have a townlean on both, I am just not as sure about either of them as I was of damo, for example.

It's pretty clear what I was saying if you read carefully, I think.

[bozotheclown]

@Xorxes - my number one issue with what you're saying right now is 'stick with what we know and what we read' - which is exactly the problem with what I and bozo are trying to tell everyone.

Chaqa, even if telling the truth, is a huge liability if we get to lylo if he is town. If he loved the wrong person, we most likely lose in all scenarios. It just turns into a race with the scum team.

I understand that there is an argument to be made for lynching Chaqa. I don't agree that it's as clearcut as you're trying to paint it, and I think your math is wrong (but feel free to convince me otherwise preferrably without insults or screams).

You should see that there is no down side to lynching Chaqa today.

[EspressoPatronum]

... I believe the scum team is xorxes, Chaqa, Percy, Espresso, bo_sox.

In clear and concise language, can you please outline why you think darg is the legitimate tracker?

I do not think he would counterclaim the real tracker the way he did as scum. I also question your preemptive attempt to imply that scum would be more likely to crumb the role. I do think it is possible you both could be scum, though.

Assume he is scum. How do you think he would have claimed it?

Assume I am town. How would I have claimed it?

[bozotheclown]

@bo, are you not going to claim your role? I think you're next on the list that Tom gave.

Oh, I missed that. I only briefly skimmed before I made that post earlier.

I'm bulletproof.

I find it hard to believe that you are the bulletproof and did not ask rdrivera to shoot you D1 for another town clear.

[xorxes]

Also, being wrong about damo and wrong about one of Espresso/dargorygel being scum is one thing, because with damo flipping town I was obviously missing a scum. However, I now believe bo_sox is scum as well. I believe the scum team is xorxes, Chaqa, Percy, Espresso, bo_sox.

What I think is that you have been basing all your reads this game on the assumption that I'm scum. You take my reads, and work from there who would be scum with me. If I was advocating for lynching Espresso instead of dargo, you would townread Espresso and scumread dargo. If I was onboard with the Chaqa lynch, you would probably think Chaqa is town.

I'm fine with lynching Chaqa if that's what Tom says we should do, but I think Chaqa is probably town.

What I can't quite figure out is if you're doing this as scum, or as a tunnelling town.

[worcej]

I am out of here until after EOD. I've done what I can to present the situation to the town... Chaqa, if true, cannot be alive by lylo or we probably lose.

I think bozo is town now based on realizing the issue as well.

I think EP is the scum between darg and himself. This is based on the smokescreens, his tracking 'choices', and his attitude towards the chaqa situation.

I think Chaqa is town, but tinfoil hat says he is probably scum for not also realizing the plight his position puts us in and instead advocates for him to live. Most hopeful case, he is the RB on the scum team and wanted to try to hide in the town with the lover claim. But honestly, he probably just is a dumb lover.

I think xorxes is scum for how hard he is trying to undermine my position and assuming some really crackpot theories.

The scum want us on EP/Darg for a reason. I think Chaqa is that reason.

Please Fox / Tom / Hosuke - getting Chaqa now does not hurt us. There is no super secret PR I am trying to save. I am just playing as if the human is in the game, and we cannot go to lylo because of that role.

[bozotheclown]

In clear and concise language, can you please outline why you think darg is the legitimate tracker?

I do not think he would counterclaim the real tracker the way he did as scum. I also question your preemptive attempt to imply that scum would be more likely to crumb the role. I do think it is possible you both could be scum, though.

Assume he is scum. How do you think he would have claimed it?

Assume I am town. How would I have claimed it?

dargorygel might have claimed with a better theory about why mafia would fake claim tracker. You could have claimed with the understanding that the tracker can track anyone performing the NK. However, it is possible that dargorygel is the cow and wants to get lynched.

[Jamiet99uk]

Hi everyone I'm back. I see I have 8 pages to catch up on. Comments shortly...

[xorxes]

Fuck, here is more math:
Odds both are town: 27.27%
Odds both are scum: 18.18%
Odds one is scum and one is town: 54.55%

You can't possibly believe that there's a 27.27% chance one of them is a complete idiot and both are town.

Mathematically I have to. I then account for it in the odds of getting the day right because I remove it from options because 0/2 (the chance of getting a scum) takes that percentage out.

It's just as valid as assuming both are scum and trying to setup a clear when all they needed to do was push a lynch on someone like me.

You lost me here. What is your final answer for the odds of getting scum if we lynch one of dargo or Espresso then? It clearly has to be higher than 50%, because 50% is what it would be if we knew for sure one had to be town, but we don't.

[xorxes]

Seriously though, the great xorxes, the best towniest towny town player out there, is trying to spin that the scum want to keep tom alive (a town clear) longer so they won't kill him and thus we keep Chaqa around?

Have you lost your mind?

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying.

What I'm saying is: if Chaqa is the Lover and scum think that Chaqa chose brainbombadil as his loved one, then they won't kill Tom (unless it secures the win) because leaving Chaqa around will keep being a distraction to town, as we need to figure out whether we need to kill him or not.

[xorxes]

@Xorxes - my number one issue with what you're saying right now is 'stick with what we know and what we read' - which is exactly the problem with what I and bozo are trying to tell everyone.

Chaqa, even if telling the truth, is a huge liability if we get to lylo if he is town. If he loved the wrong person, we most likely lose in all scenarios. It just turns into a race with the scum team.

I understand that there is an argument to be made for lynching Chaqa. I don't agree that it's as clearcut as you're trying to paint it, and I think your math is wrong (but feel free to convince me otherwise preferrably without insults or screams).

You should see that there is no down side to lynching Chaqa today.

The downside I see is that we probably lose Tom and that we have fewer numbers tomorrow to kill a potential cow.

[Chaqa]

I’ve got a few things to take care of this morning but I should be around for EOD. I’m a bit concerned we don’t have more of a consensus but I believe we will get there. Hopefully Tom and Fox are around.

[bozotheclown]

Also, being wrong about damo and wrong about one of Espresso/dargorygel being scum is one thing, because with damo flipping town I was obviously missing a scum. However, I now believe bo_sox is scum as well. I believe the scum team is xorxes, Chaqa, Percy, Espresso, bo_sox.

What I think is that you have been basing all your reads this game on the assumption that I'm scum. You take my reads, and work from there who would be scum with me. If I was advocating for lynching Espresso instead of dargo, you would townread Espresso and scumread dargo. If I was onboard with the Chaqa lynch, you would probably think Chaqa is town.

I'm fine with lynching Chaqa if that's what Tom says we should do, but I think Chaqa is probably town.

What I can't quite figure out is if you're doing this as scum, or as a tunnelling town.

You are incorrect if you think I have been assuming you are scum, and I am certainly not basing my reads off of it. I would say the opposite is true, I suspect you are scum because I do not see where your reads are coming from. emc claimed tree stump D1, with all of the scum fake claim roles available. Do you really think ItsHosuke, as a new player, is equally as likely to choose a fake role to claim without being able to talk to his teammates as he is to claim his real role as town? These were obvious town claims to me, yet you helped lynch emc D2 after forcing Foxcastle to reveal on the premise you did not believe ItsHosuke. However, when Percy and Chaqa claim under pressure, you are confident they are town. My read on all four has nothing to do with what I think of your alignment. It is possible Percy and Chaqa are town and I am missing scum in flash, foodcoats, and Jamie, but I do not like how Percy and Chaqa are getting by after making scum indicative claims under pressure.

[bozotheclown]

Seriously though, the great xorxes, the best towniest towny town player out there, is trying to spin that the scum want to keep tom alive (a town clear) longer so they won't kill him and thus we keep Chaqa around?

Have you lost your mind?

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying.

What I'm saying is: if Chaqa is the Lover and scum think that Chaqa chose brainbombadil as his loved one, then they won't kill Tom (unless it secures the win) because leaving Chaqa around will keep being a distraction to town, as we need to figure out whether we need to kill him or not.

If Chaqa is scum, the mafia are keeping Tom alive to avoid disproving Chaqa's claim. This is more likely than the reverse.

[bozotheclown]

I understand that there is an argument to be made for lynching Chaqa. I don't agree that it's as clearcut as you're trying to paint it, and I think your math is wrong (but feel free to convince me otherwise preferrably without insults or screams).

You should see that there is no down side to lynching Chaqa today.

The downside I see is that we probably lose Tom and that we have fewer numbers tomorrow to kill a potential cow.

That is meaningless if we lose today, and we would still have the same number of town whether Tom gets NKed or not.

[Jamiet99uk]

Chaqa, flash, Espresso, bo_sox, Jamiet could you give your comments on these posts please:

This is a false narrative. I lost track of time and did not realise the night had ended.

If you're asking me if that's a tracker breadcrumb, it is not. I am not the tracker.