Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[EspressoPatronum]

@xorxes, have you read my darg ISO? Or even better, have you done a darg ISO yet?

Assuming scum!darg, how are you drawing the conclusion that Percy is scum?

[bozotheclown]

Why do you think Chaqa is scummy? Besides being selfish and wanting to survive until the late game (that’s just selfish poor play, but not necessarily scummy)

Chaqa's claim was unnecessary at the time he made it, and town should try to avoid that claim if at all possible.

[worcej]

So to start, your math is fundamentally off because the 50% odds of getting darg/EP wrong operates under the assumption that one is town and one is scum. You have to start with that baseline assumption to get 50%

Why would you start with that assumption when we don't know that it is true?

So what are the odds they are both scum? The math is this: (5/14)*(4/13) = 10.98%

Why 14? There's only 11 unclears left (only 10 for me, and only 10 for you if you are town).

That being said, for someone who has said this to me...
...I think you just scum slipped in that wall.

Explain?

Okay, I'll take the clears out. Math wont result much better... (5/11)*(4/10) = 18.18%. Important key factor in this all: The odds of them both not being scum is 81.82%.

You have to have baseline assumptions when you start an equation to calculate odds. You cannot just throw numbers up there and just be willy-nilly with them.

Your slip is this:

And the main reason I don't want to lynch Chaqa is that I want Tom alive as long as possible. No offence to the masons, but I trust Tome more than them.

Why does Chaqa's lynch have any effect on Tom xorxes? The scum read is you gave me crap twice for not reading the setup, meaning you did.

[bozotheclown]

Again - poor play is not scummy.

I truly think darg panicked and counterclaimed

Also, regarding Chaqa - we still need to consider cow scenario. If scum was given lover as a fake role, cow (if in play) would almost certainly claim that role as they are the most likely to get lynched for the mathematical reason and thus more likely to have a near consensus wagon. (I do not think Chaqa is mafia, but this needs to be considered)

Why would dargorygel or any scum be panicked just because the tracker claimed his role, with no useful reports?

[worcej]

Hey @worcej, I just want to say I appreciate the effort you're taking to keep a cool head now.

I'm liking your recent posts.

Sleep does wonders for the soul.

[xorxes]

Again. Math is wrong, I just showed you how. 10% odds they are both scum.

Only if you think that the odds of Tom, Fox or Hosuke being scum is greater than zero.

That 10% does not add to the 50/50 you're trying to assign - you're double dipping with assumptions to try to say it's 70/30 that we get a scum.

It's more like 72/28 as Espresso correctly points out. But that's not taking into account reads. For me it's way higher than that given my reads of the game.

I've told you numerous times why Chaqa needs to go now. Did you not read my posts? It's simple - a myslynch today could end the game. I believe the scum are playing for that chance right now.

Yes, if we mislynch today and there is a human and Chaqa is the Lover and they know who to target to kill Chaqa then we lose. The odds of that are higher than zero, but much lower than 50%.

[bozotheclown]

Percy. I don’t understand what you are trying to say. You are presenting what you think is a contradiction (it’s not - not all crumbs are the same), but even so a contradiction does not equal scum.

As Scum, you have to pretend to act in town's interest while plotting their death. I believe that Bozotheclown has been attempting to get information for the Mafia all game. From the Massclaim to the scum team lists to pushing Chaqa for a reveal of who he loves. That would match the scum team this game, as they have directly targeted PRs over Townclears. I believe that the scum team figured out that Dargo was the tracker, and that EP is scum to get us to mislynch and win, but specifically Dargo's role thanks to the handy scum read teams charts (but that is a high risk vote if we get wrong, so I at least think we should vote outside of that).
Back to my original point, Bozo knows that revealing D1 gives information to the Mafia, and doesn't help Town, so he points it out as scummy behavior. Then he remembers his entire narrative d1 was that everyone should claim, so he has to backtrack, and say it would have helped Town, and he made a mistake not doing so.
Even presuming that Bozo is 100% Town (which I don't believe) why is he suddenly on the right track with voting for Chaqa? It seems like the plan probably accidentally helps Scum if Bozo likes it... Oh yeah! It inherently has us lynch Town. (To Worcej, who is invariably yelling at me through his screen right now: I get the math reasons why we'd want to remove the lover, and earlier rather than later, but We're just as dead if we never catch scum)

If you evaluate reasons to lynch Chaqa, you should come to the conclusion it is best for town, regardless of whether you think I am town.

[xorxes]

@Xorxes - my number one issue with what you're saying right now is 'stick with what we know and what we read' - which is exactly the problem with what I and bozo are trying to tell everyone.

Chaqa, even if telling the truth, is a huge liability if we get to lylo if he is town. If he loved the wrong person, we most likely lose in all scenarios. It just turns into a race with the scum team.

I understand that there is an argument to be made for lynching Chaqa. I don't agree that it's as clearcut as you're trying to paint it, and I think your math is wrong (but feel free to convince me otherwise preferrably without insults or screams).

[xorxes]

@xorxes, have you read my darg ISO? Or even better, have you done a darg ISO yet?

Yes, both.

Assuming scum!darg, how are you drawing the conclusion that Percy is scum?

What? I think Percy is town.

[worcej]

Again. Math is wrong, I just showed you how. 10% odds they are both scum.

Only if you think that the odds of Tom, Fox or Hosuke being scum is greater than zero.

That 10% does not add to the 50/50 you're trying to assign - you're double dipping with assumptions to try to say it's 70/30 that we get a scum.

It's more like 72/28 as Espresso correctly points out. But that's not taking into account reads. For me it's way higher than that given my reads of the game.

I've told you numerous times why Chaqa needs to go now. Did you not read my posts? It's simple - a myslynch today could end the game. I believe the scum are playing for that chance right now.

Fixed it, so it's 18% now.

Again, NO IT IS NOT 72/28. You're doing bad math if you think that continuously. The 50/50 result is ONLY VALID if you think one is scum and one is not.

Fuck, here is more math:
Odds both are town: 27.27%
Odds both are scum: 18.18%
Odds one is scum and one is town: 54.55%

These odds are assigned before you go to the probability of choice. The probability of choice (assuming darg vs EP) is just 1/2, just like a coin flip. The odds of us getting a scum on EP and darg, based only on math is the following: (18.18)(2/2) + (54.55)*(1/2) = 45.45%

Yes, if we mislynch today and there is a human and Chaqa is the Lover and they know who to target to kill Chaqa then we lose. The odds of that are higher than zero, but much lower than 50%.

[worcej]

@Xorxes - my number one issue with what you're saying right now is 'stick with what we know and what we read' - which is exactly the problem with what I and bozo are trying to tell everyone.

Chaqa, even if telling the truth, is a huge liability if we get to lylo if he is town. If he loved the wrong person, we most likely lose in all scenarios. It just turns into a race with the scum team.

I understand that there is an argument to be made for lynching Chaqa. I don't agree that it's as clearcut as you're trying to paint it, and I think your math is wrong (but feel free to convince me otherwise preferrably without insults or screams).

I have shown you numerous times on the math. If you don't believe it, that's on you.

I finished it out in my quote above.

[Chaqa]

Why do you think Chaqa is scummy? Besides being selfish and wanting to survive until the late game (that’s just selfish poor play, but not necessarily scummy)

Chaqa's claim was unnecessary at the time he made it, and town should try to avoid that claim if at all possible.

SAYS THE GUY WHO WAS CLAMMERING FOR A MASS CLAIM AT THE TIME I MADE IT.

HOLY SHIT HOW HAVE WE NOT LYNCHED HIM YET.

[EspressoPatronum]

Okay, I'll take the clears out. Math wont result much better... (5/11)*(4/10) = 18.18%. Important key factor in this all: The odds of them both not being scum is 81.82%.

You have to have baseline assumptions when you start an equation to calculate odds. You cannot just throw numbers up there and just be willy-nilly with them.

I like this as a starting basis.

How does that change once we factor in the counterclaim situation? There's no situation in which both of us are town, so town can be certain one of darg or EP is scum.

[EspressoPatronum]

@xorxes, have you read my darg ISO? Or even better, have you done a darg ISO yet?

Yes, both.

Assuming scum!darg, how are you drawing the conclusion that Percy is scum?

What? I think Percy is town.

That's not what you said.

"I'm not so sure that Percy and Chaqa are town."

Tbf, I accidentally mischaracterized 'not town' as scum, but it is clear you didn't say Percy is town.

[bozotheclown]

xorxes is ignoring the reasons we should lynch Chaqa today, so I have to assume he is scum. Besides, I find it hard to believe xorxes is so sure Percy and Chaqa are town when he supposedly thought emc and ItsHosuke were scum despite their claims that would make no sense for scum.

I'm not so sure that Percy and Chaqa are town. I'm sure that if they are scum they are already caught, and if they are town the Mafia will sort them for us. I also tend to believe their claims. Percy has not obvtowned as strongly as damo, but he has not been too scummy either. Chaqa had some good towny moments earlier but is not doing so good lately. I still think he is more likely town.

Hosuke was a complete null. He had said nothing to make me think he was a townie, and his out-of-nowhere claim could have come just as easily from inexperienced scum as from inexperienced town. The fact you were so sure it was the latter is also telling.

emc's claim was also NAI. And you insisting that I base my reads mainly on claims is also bad.

Foxcastle, ItsHosuke, and Tom, please consider the reasons why lynching Chaqa is the best option today. You should be the ones leading the lynch today.

I agree, but I welcome that they are not shutting up discussion.

Could you give your updated reads now that we know damo was town and that at least one of EP/dargo are scum? You were wrong on both of those things, so I would like to know your current reads.

Your response is inconsistent with how close town is to losing. It does not matter if Percy and Chaqa are already caught if we lose today without lynching them.

Also, being wrong about damo and wrong about one of Espresso/dargorygel being scum is one thing, because with damo flipping town I was obviously missing a scum. However, I now believe bo_sox is scum as well. I believe the scum team is xorxes, Chaqa, Percy, Espresso, bo_sox.

[xorxes]

Okay, I'll take the clears out. Math wont result much better... (5/11)*(4/10) = 18.18%. Important key factor in this all: The odds of them both not being scum is 81.82%.

That's true only if you allow for the possibility of both of them being town, which we know is false.

You have to have baseline assumptions when you start an equation to calculate odds. You cannot just throw numbers up there and just be willy-nilly with them.

But you made the wrong assumptions.

Your slip is this:

And the main reason I don't want to lynch Chaqa is that I want Tom alive as long as possible. No offence to the masons, but I trust Tome more than them.

Why does Chaqa's lynch have any effect on Tom xorxes? The scum read is you gave me crap twice for not reading the setup, meaning you did.

You misunderstood what I was saying. Scum may choose to keep Tom alive as long as Chaqa is alive so that Chaqa is left as a question mark. Once Chaqa is dead, Tom is toast.

[EspressoPatronum]

... I believe the scum team is xorxes, Chaqa, Percy, Espresso, bo_sox.

In clear and concise language, can you please outline why you think darg is the legitimate tracker?

[xorxes]

Fuck, here is more math:
Odds both are town: 27.27%
Odds both are scum: 18.18%
Odds one is scum and one is town: 54.55%

You can't possibly believe that there's a 27.27% chance one of them is a complete idiot and both are town.

[worcej]

Okay, I'll take the clears out. Math wont result much better... (5/11)*(4/10) = 18.18%. Important key factor in this all: The odds of them both not being scum is 81.82%.

That's true only if you allow for the possibility of both of them being town, which we know is false.

You have to have baseline assumptions when you start an equation to calculate odds. You cannot just throw numbers up there and just be willy-nilly with them.

But you made the wrong assumptions.

Your slip is this:

And the main reason I don't want to lynch Chaqa is that I want Tom alive as long as possible. No offence to the masons, but I trust Tome more than them.

Why does Chaqa's lynch have any effect on Tom xorxes? The scum read is you gave me crap twice for not reading the setup, meaning you did.

You misunderstood what I was saying. Scum may choose to keep Tom alive as long as Chaqa is alive so that Chaqa is left as a question mark. Once Chaqa is dead, Tom is toast.

No it is not false. The statement was "Important key factor in this all: The odds of them both not being scum is 81.82%." which is 100% accurate - it's the inverse of the odds both are scum.

I already account for the lack of them both being town in the 45% calculation - you're right, it's false.

I don't want to be mean, but you clearly do not know math well if you're arguing a bunch about assumptions being bad when you're getting a result of 70% we get a scum today in EP or Darg.

And - wtf? Why would the scum choose to keep Tom alive keep Chaqa alive longer? In what possible situation would that make any sense?

Scum xorxes, going the distance here with this shit...

[worcej]

Fuck, here is more math:
Odds both are town: 27.27%
Odds both are scum: 18.18%
Odds one is scum and one is town: 54.55%

You can't possibly believe that there's a 27.27% chance one of them is a complete idiot and both are town.

Mathematically I have to. I then account for it in the odds of getting the day right because I remove it from options because 0/2 (the chance of getting a scum) takes that percentage out.

It's just as valid as assuming both are scum and trying to setup a clear when all they needed to do was push a lynch on someone like me.