Mafia 47 - The Sixth Mass Extinction - GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

Well gee Bozo, it doesn’t seem like anyone picked up on it, so maybe THATS EXACTLY WHAT I DID. How are you this dense?

The only reason I’m outed as Loved is because people pushed me on Day 2 and I had to.

You have no idea how badly I want to vote for you because I’m tired of you getting away with all your scum crap.

You did not have to claim when you did, which is the reason I still suspect your claim may be fake.

If you were leaving an undetectable crumb to later verify a claim, I would expect you to crumb your role or animal, not your target. I do not see any benefit to town to ever make your target public, since the only way to verify your target gets you killed.

I felt like I had to claim when I did. You don't have the right to say how I perceive things.

I did not dispute how you felt, I was stating a fact that you would not have been lynched if you had not claimed. Your claim can so late it was after EOD. Your soft claim came when you were trailing emc by 2 votes. Also, at the time, you seemed to be saying it was OK to lynch you because of your role. Now you are saying you only claimed to avoid the lynch.

[bozotheclown]

I don't know what to tell you. With how the roles in this game are, what was I supposed to do? Options:
1. Not claim at all. Probably get lynched.
2. Claim VT. People don't mind lynching VT, so get lynched.
3. Claim a random role and potentially draw a CC. Bad for town.
4. Claim my real role and obfuscate who my Lover target is.

#4 is what I did. My lover target has yet to die, so i guess it has worked so far.

And everyone keeps saying I confirmed it's Tom, but as far as I know I haven't done so.

This might be the most mechanically and mindgaming interesting thing I’ve seen. I’m turning in for the night, but we need to spend some serious time thinking this. Big questions:

1. Did Dargo counterclaim have to do with the Tracker specifically? Why CC Espresso over someone like Jamiet or worcej who have more scum reads?

2. Is Dargo actually the tracker? The roleblock makes me wonder, because there would be no reason to hold the roleblock or to use it on the NK target on night 3, as far as I can tell. So mafia would be incentivized to actually roleblock someone they think is tracker.

3. If one of them is the cow, who is the target of the disease? A thought occurs to me - what if it’s Tom? In that situation, him lynching either of them is a DISASTER for town because it means we lose 2 townies for 1 mafia.

4. Could mafia be planning to power steal their own guy somehow if the power thief is in play? Similarly, what if the double vote is in play and that could manipulate things?

I think we need the full phase time to figure out the least dangerous solution. So no end voting.

How does the third item not confirm Tom?

[Chaqa]

I suppose I'm more uncomfortable now because I see the two of you pushing it as scummy at the moment, making me doubt the motivations.

@Bozo: what do you mean? Normally it's a 1-for-1 trade. Lynch one scum, lose one townie to NK. If Tom (or anyone I guess) gets cowed, we lose him as well in addition to the NK.

[worcej]

I suppose I'm more uncomfortable now because I see the two of you pushing it as scummy at the moment, making me doubt the motivations.

@Bozo: what do you mean? Normally it's a 1-for-1 trade. Lynch one scum, lose one townie to NK. If Tom (or anyone I guess) gets cowed, we lose him as well in addition to the NK.

Can you explain what is scummy about bozo and me pointing this out?

[worcej]

I suppose I'm more uncomfortable now because I see the two of you pushing it as scummy at the moment, making me doubt the motivations.

@Bozo: what do you mean? Normally it's a 1-for-1 trade. Lynch one scum, lose one townie to NK. If Tom (or anyone I guess) gets cowed, we lose him as well in addition to the NK.

Cow becomes a problem at mylo. If someone gets cowed then (which means the cow was lynched), the town will lose on the NK if the double vote exists.

[bozotheclown]

Has anyone noted the possibility of Chaqa's lover being scum?

We have 14 players remaining. Assuming his lover isn't Fox, Hosuke, or Tom, and excluding Chaqa from the pool, that's a 50/50 chance his lover is mafia.

Someone was mentioning a 5/7 chance that we're in mylo if we don't lynch Chaqa today... does this number reflect the chance of a mafia lover?

It is the same either way, because for town to win we have to lynch all of the scum, which would eventually kill Chaqa.

[bozotheclown]

I suppose I'm more uncomfortable now because I see the two of you pushing it as scummy at the moment, making me doubt the motivations.

@Bozo: what do you mean? Normally it's a 1-for-1 trade. Lynch one scum, lose one townie to NK. If Tom (or anyone I guess) gets cowed, we lose him as well in addition to the NK.

I took this to mean that if Tom was killed by the cow, we would lose 2 town, Tom and you. Why else mention Tom specifically?

[bozotheclown]

I suppose I'm more uncomfortable now because I see the two of you pushing it as scummy at the moment, making me doubt the motivations.

@Bozo: what do you mean? Normally it's a 1-for-1 trade. Lynch one scum, lose one townie to NK. If Tom (or anyone I guess) gets cowed, we lose him as well in addition to the NK.

Cow becomes a problem at mylo. If someone gets cowed then (which means the cow was lynched), the town will lose on the NK if the double vote exists.

Yes, and since it is mylo now if Chaqa is town and the double vote is in play, we could potentially lynch the cow and still lose today if the cow's target is voting for him. This is why the fake claimer is very likely the cow. This is also a reason to suspect dargorygel's claim is fake.

[bozotheclown]

It is possible dargorygel counterclaimed Espresso because Espresso is his cow target. If that is the case, and Chaqa is town, and the mafia have the double vote, the mafia would win if dargorygel gets lynched with Espresso on his wagon.

[worcej]

It is possible dargorygel counterclaimed Espresso because Espresso is his cow target. If that is the case, and Chaqa is town, and the mafia have the double vote, the mafia would win if dargorygel gets lynched with Espresso on his wagon.

Yes, we'e both on the same page right now about just jumping into the EP or Darg wagons. We shouldn't due it at this exact moment.

[Jamiet99uk]

Only I know who my lover is. What this seems like to me is a scum getting nervous I may not have who they think as lover and throwing off their entire endgame math and plan.

What?
Are you retracting your Brain/Tom lover claim?

[Jamiet99uk]

Fuck manipulative shit like this.

[Chaqa]

Only I know who my lover is. What this seems like to me is a scum getting nervous I may not have who they think as lover and throwing off their entire endgame math and plan.

What?
Are you retracting your Brain/Tom lover claim?

I NEVER MADE THAT CLAIM. Everyone keeps telling me i did, but go and find it. You won't.

[flash2015]

It is possible dargorygel counterclaimed Espresso because Espresso is his cow target. If that is the case, and Chaqa is town, and the mafia have the double vote, the mafia would win if dargorygel gets lynched with Espresso on his wagon.

Yes, we'e both on the same page right now about just jumping into the EP or Darg wagons. We shouldn't due it at this exact moment.

Even in that worst case scenario it would be 8-4 after lynching and 6-4 after EON. We would be still OK for at least one more day even if that happens.

[Chaqa]

I think our best course is to lynch Dargo and make sure the town clears and likely cow targets (basically, anyone who has a penchant for making it to the late game) aren't on the wagon.

[xorxes]

Chaqa, flash, Espresso, bo_sox, Jamiet could you give your comments on these posts please:

@xorxes - I mean, mainly because I'm a lazy player regardless, and I like to read less posts. Nothing irks me more than lots of short posts with a dozen back and forth discussions I have to track.

Don't worry. I am here. Not much to keep track of yet.

EMC's vote against himself is effectively a non-vote meant to defeat a literal interpretation of the criticism, "EMC doesn't vote until EOD." The heart of the criticism is that his non-vote doesn't help town because we can't track his voting record and we don't know what to expect of his vote. Voting for himself doesn't help either of this problems, so his vote against himself is still anti-town.

Lynching lurkers might be a smart plan, but it needs to be done cohesively. A smart mafia player in a setup like this one is probably burying themselves in the muck right now. The worst thing that they can do for themselves is draw undue attention their way, which is why, for example, I think bozo is probably town even though he's the one that keeps proposing stupid things. There should be less attention focused on those who are coming up with ideas and trying to direct traffic, so to speak, and more attention focused on those who are either not posting at all, doing what I did last night and posting just to get something down on paper, or simply following in the tracks of others who are laying bricks for them. Personally, I find the latter is the easiest way to track down lurking scum, because eventually playing by either of the former will stand out even if it doesn't on day 1. When I reread day 1, that's something I plan to look for.

This is a false narrative. I lost track of time and did not realise the night had ended.

[bo_sox48]

I'm a little behind and need to read things more closely but I don't see any world right now in which we don't have to kill both darg and Espresso. There's a real good chance they're both scum seemingly aiming to get darg lynched and then have Espresso coast. That's a better chance than any other scenario that has been brought up. I don't really see the point in messing around with anything else other than that at the moment simply because I don't think it's a 50/50 shot.

I'm looking back at Espresso in particular because Espresso's claim was exactly as I expected it to be. Darg, on the other hand, was late and hasn't done a great job. I don't have a whole lot of trouble believing Espresso's claim over his, and I think that's the point.

Espresso says he tracked xorxes N2, and xorxes didn't visit anyone. Okay, cool. Espresso scumread xorxes on D2, even suggesting that on D3 there should be a wagon against xorxes. Then he tracked him, and saw nothing.

What Espresso should know is that seeing nothing is not clearing any implication that xorxes is scum. There are a lot of mafia roles that don't necessarily visit if there is a killer, and even if there isn't a killer only so many people are making the visits each night. So why does Espresso go from this:

@bozo for your list:

Scum team:
1. Damo
2. Emc
3. Percy
4. Xorxes
5.Hosuke*

*If Hosuke gets mason cleared, put worcej in there instead.

I'd like to see a xorxes wagon tomorrow

...to this?

All but 1 of Jamie's 5 votes in D2 were among the first 2 of a wagon. Huuuuge powerthief red flag.

All but 1 of Jamie's 5 votes in D2 were among the first 2 of a wagon. Huuuuge powerthief red flag.

Does scum!Jamie bus xorxes to steal his power? I don't think so.

If Jamie is scum, xorxes is town.

@all remaining town clears.

I would like to start a Jamiet wagon. Can two of you please vote for him so we can start it?

The reason this is suspect is not because his read changed. That would be expected, at least to a degree, when the odds are mathematically lowered that someone is scum based on the results of a scan. What I find suspicious is that his read changed during night 2, not after he got the results of his scan. Jamie became a scumread, and as a result, xorxes became a townread. So why track xorxes if he's a townread based on POE off your new scumread? He had already claimed innocent child during day 2.

What I see is this: the scumteam had the tracker as an available claim and knew that from the start. They have been plotting out the execution of this plan since then, knowing that the proper time to claim tracker would be after N3. They have been going PR hunting instead of killing townclears because they thiink they're going to have a "townclear" of their own. Mathematically, if they leave enough townclears alive until late in the game that their own "townclear" can justifiably not die, they'll win, even if a couple of them get caught.

In my view, this is a slight error in the execution of this plan by Espresso, and it stands out. There was no stated reason for him to be tracking xorxes N2. He townread him.

Another question this made me consider was why the Vaporwave wagon went down the way it did. It was at least somewhat apparent that he either wasn't the tracker and coincidentally crumbed it, was the tracker but wasn't claiming it yet and just crumbed too openly, or was scum setting himself up to claim tracker. Why did this not catch the attention of either darg or Espresso? Nothing in their iso suggests they ever had a moment where they thought he might be setting up to counterclaim them. This is the kind of thing that a town PR should be looking for, but neither of them ever did.

This is a sequence that stands out to me regarding Espresso's treatment of Vapor, beginning with him voting Vapor on D3:

Espresso is not just town, he's mighty town.

damo remains town, same for xorxes however I'm prepared to be slapped with a surprise of scum!xorx performing one of his best scum games of all time

foodcoats is a strong new entry in my towncore, he's trying to understand everything and doesn't feign interest in topics

Ahh, here comes the scum spew. I was a little worried about your pocketing of me, but this is next level. I guess you've been brewing up this pot of WIFOM since D1, eh?

##vote Vaporwave

5 hours prior to this post, we saw this from Espresso:

The worcej wagon looks fine to me. I don't think Vapor is scum, but my read of him is likely influenced by his hard townread of me.

VOTE## worcej

Assuming I have the correct interpretation of the power thief role, I suggest bo_sox unvote and then vote for worcej again. That would leave Fox and Brain as the first two on the wagon.

I don't know what to make of such a dramatic flip flop. Initially, Espresso townreads Vapor because Vapor townreads him. Then, five hours later and after the wagon has built up alongside worcej, he votes for Vapor because Vapor townreads him. What's the magic line that Vapor crossed? I don't see how the post Espresso quoted when he voted for Vapor could have been so dramatically interpreted that he flipped from a townread to a scumread worth wagoning on.

My working theory is that Espresso simply forgot that he's supposed to be setting himself up for a tracker claim and realized that he should be at the very least hinting that Vapor's crumbs were fake. But that's just a theory.

After Vapor flipped, Espresso said the following:

- I think scum pushed the Tracker!Vapor agenda. bozo mentioned that it looks like scum set Vapor up with the RB with the idea of him getting lynched... I agree with his. I'm assuming scum must have the tracker claim + knew Vapor either (a) didn't really claim Tracker + pushed the story that he did, or (b) wanted to kill Vapor to "regain" the tracker claim in their possible. With that in mind, I'm highly sus of anyone who was pushing the message that Vapor was tracker. I think that's damo, flash, and maybe a few others.
- side note. I was planning on waiting until night to push the rest of the tracker smokescreen. I don't think there's a need for it any more considering the above information.

Obviously, he knew Vapor was town regardless of whether or not he's the tracker after his flip. Nonetheless, this is far more dismissive of Vapor's breadcrumbs than I would expect the actual tracker to be. It is, on the other hand, exactly what I would expect someone to say when they actually set this up to begin with. Clearly, duh, this was a scum push from the beginning.

On the other side of the coin, this is darg's first vote of day 3, after Vapor claimed RB:

When we combine/intersect vapor's RB, and his suggestion of flash...

Maybe those things point to our first scum.

##vote flash2015

This is the post he is referencing:

this is non-game related, don't wanna hear anyone thinking of 'softing' or any of that bs

that's why I was targeted, it was a threat to flash

why would they care if I were to follow a townie (btw I'm not claiming to be anything this is hypothesis)

it seems that they didn't want me to visit flash, is he the one that holds the kill?

This is confusing. If darg is the tracker, wouldn't the tracker crumbs plus the RB claim lead him down a path toward suspecting Vapor? Why is he trusting Vapor instead? That certainly does not seem befitting of someone who has implied he may be your counterclaim.

At the very least darg has some redeeming crumbs that give me some pause. I notice this one in particular on day 2, indicating his plan to scan Percy:

Sigh...
I was feeling better about Percy. But then he went all unsure about his claim.
I am interested in Jamie. He seems very terse and mad, like scumjamie. If there is something else about him, please summarize. I expect to be in full Monday. Your patience is appreciated.

I am going to VOTE ## Percy Williams but will try to scan again if I get the chance.

Still, this can all be faked. I just don't think this has been all that well executed considering how clever their plan actually was, and I don't think they accounted for the extra dimension of someone outside their team crumbing tracker. Neither showed the appropriate amount of suspicion toward Vapor at all, and yet both ended up voting for him.

[xorxes]

I assume they could steal the double-vote or the roleblock, but not the disease?

From the role's description on p1: "...if you are one of the first two players to vote on a mislynch..."

I don't think mafia lynches count as mislynches, so I'm assuming the PT can't steal mafia powers.

Good point. Can someone check with the GMs, I'm on phone atm.

Thank you everyone for helping with this.

I can now confirm that the Powerthief cannot steal from one of their teammates. One fewer thing to worry about.

[EspressoPatronum]

I suppose I'm more uncomfortable now because I see the two of you pushing it as scummy at the moment, making me doubt the motivations.

@Bozo: what do you mean? Normally it's a 1-for-1 trade. Lynch one scum, lose one townie to NK. If Tom (or anyone I guess) gets cowed, we lose him as well in addition to the NK.

Cow becomes a problem at mylo. If someone gets cowed then (which means the cow was lynched), the town will lose on the NK if the double vote exists.

Worcej is behaving as though he knows we have a cow.

Sic 'em, @Jamie.

[xorxes]

I believe both dargo and Espresso are scum.

The reason is that I think the Tracker was a Mafia fake role.

Why do the counterclaim charade? Maybe in the hopes that whichever one is not lynched gets enough towncred to take the win. Things like this have been done before.

I think Tracker is a fake role because of what happened with Vapor. Scum roleblocking him while leaving damo alive and not roleblocked means they were not afraid of the Tracker. Damo was a strong cadidate to being the Tracker, certainly much stronger than Vapor, so the only way Mafia would be sure he wasn't is because they knew he couldn't be.

Also, dargo's crumb "investigative" reads like an intentional crumb, but the timing (N2) is ridiculous. All his other crumbs look like things he thought up later that could be construed as crumbs rather than things that he said with the intention of being crumbs.