Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[xorxes]

I think ##VOTE Espresso

It's likely they are both town, but et's posts feel more off-the-cuff and spontaneous and Espresso's posts are more considered, which is not necessarily scummy but there's not much more to go on.

I don't think claiming VT, especially so early helps town, but it's not particularly scummy either, just not well thought out.

This is hedgy af Xorxes. Spontaneous vs considered is not alignment indicative, I make posts of both types as both alignments. Genuine vs Fake is alignment indicative. Do you think Et's spontaneous posts are genuine and EP's considered posts are ingenuine?

Both seem genuine, but spontaneous is harder to fake.

[xorxes]

I'm catching up on the forum right now to add to my "responses to criticisms" and "my actions this game." Not sure how long I'll take, but I'll write and post PART II once I finish that.

PART I was a very strong post. Looking forward to PART II. Could be a vote swinger.

What was strong about it? It just stated some basic facts about the theory of the game.

[Foxcastle]

I am torn. Prior to the call, I hadn't thought much about either of them---null or slight town leans. Now, I town read et pretty strongly; I town read EP less strongly, and while some of his play (both before the judge and after) seems off to me, I'm not sure it's actually scummy. I want to believe the Judge saw something, but "hope" is not the basis for a strategy.

Et lynch pros: makes small progress in sorting the D1 Bozo wagon, which will be especially important to analyze if Flavius flips scum.

EP lynch pros: makes significant progress in sorting the independent wagons, which will be important if D1 was TvT.

Tie/no lynch pros: maybe Balki has just put the fear of LyLo in me, but putting a lynch off when it looks like two townies maybe is for the best. Especially if the BA understands why he should be helping Town out at the moment. I think if they are both town, the information on who is scum will be limited; I think if one of them is scum (EP, probably), the information on who else is scum will also be limited or harder to parse.

I'll support a tie if that has enough support, but an EP lynch is a close second preference.

[xorxes]

This is kinda part of what I mean by you assuming the worst. I’ve explained my position, one I stand by and don’t regret, but you’ve completely ignored my reasoning. Whether or not he played games off site factored completely 0 into my consideration of him, which is a point I tried to make very clear several times.

Not factoring in a player's experience in your reads is just plain dumb.

I have a very good reason for not doing it. My definition is very particular where I'll consider someone who's played a hundred games but this is their first on the site as new, whereas someone who's in their second or third game but they've played on this site as not new. If you've never played with a community before, you'll be wide eyed, in a strange land, and ultimately adopt the same sort of mindsets and characteristics that truly new players exhibit. And from there they're easier to break down.

That makes sense. The timing thing difference that Espresso pointed out between IRL games and online games is also an example.

[damo666]

I'm catching up on the forum right now to add to my "responses to criticisms" and "my actions this game." Not sure how long I'll take, but I'll write and post PART II once I finish that.

PART I was a very strong post. Looking forward to PART II. Could be a vote swinger.

What was strong about it? It just stated some basic facts about the theory of the game.

It was well structured and well written. I'll concede that it did not contain anything particularly surprising but it does a good job of explaining his approach to the situation (albeit that I think the approach is flawed).

[Percy Williams]

Answer for Squigs 3(last)

You say that you townread Chippe, Percy, and teacon (here). Those townreads seem to be built at the very beginning of D1. The townread of Percy looks to be because he agreed with you? Why does agreeing with you make him townie? Any updates on your thoughts of teacon, or Chippe?

About Percy, I guess his thought of voting bozo and that might be correct.
So I think he is townie. I don't think he agreed me.
About Chipe, I have thought he is townie.
And I haven't read teacon and Percy's post Day2 yet, I am worried.

You said you don't think Percy agreed with you in this answer. But on day 1, you said:

Nextly, about Percy.
I thought boz might be scum.
(And I thought Percy might be town because of same thought.)
So, I don't want to players stop focus boz.

Having the same thought as someone is agreeing with them. You say here you think Percy is town because he also scumread Bozo. Why did scum-reading Bozo make Percy town to you?

I think the point et is trying to make is that he believes we separately came to the same conclusion (Bozo is scum) using the same thought process. Since et knows he is town, someone thinking about the game the same way as him is town indicative.(Unless he's scum and lying about the whole thing).

[xorxes]

Chippe, have you talked about your reads of et and EP yet? That's the most important thing to look at today.

I'm thinking about them. All of these detailed reads on both of them are making me go back and forth. I'm hoping ND will post his Espresso read soon...

Are you going to base your read on how ND reads them?

[Percy Williams]

WWSDD? We need to see if there is any way to summon Squigg's Dude. He is the guidance we need to win this game.

[ChippeRock]

I am torn. Prior to the call, I hadn't thought much about either of them---null or slight town leans. Now, I town read et pretty strongly; I town read EP less strongly, and while some of his play (both before the judge and after) seems off to me, I'm not sure it's actually scummy. I want to believe the Judge saw something, but "hope" is not the basis for a strategy.

Et lynch pros: makes small progress in sorting the D1 Bozo wagon, which will be especially important to analyze if Flavius flips scum.

EP lynch pros: makes significant progress in sorting the independent wagons, which will be important if D1 was TvT.

Tie/no lynch pros: maybe Balki has just put the fear of LyLo in me, but putting a lynch off when it looks like two townies maybe is for the best. Especially if the BA understands why he should be helping Town out at the moment. I think if they are both town, the information on who is scum will be limited; I think if one of them is scum (EP, probably), the information on who else is scum will also be limited or harder to parse.

I'll support a tie if that has enough support, but an EP lynch is a close second preference.

Look Fox, a tie is not in town's interests. There is bound to be at least one scum who everyone thinks is town - who better to fit that profile than two players who have been overlooked by everybody and just sort of read as town without too much reason (even if there was reason, there wasn't enough reasons to strongly read them as town). Not only that, but we've gotten both players to start talking more and people have made detailed reads on these players. Assuming the judge randomly selected these two candidates & ruled out all of the obvious town (since what the judge here seems rather similar to a post of mine about what the judge should do - so I would take that he took some kind of inspiration from my idea), there's about a 75% chance one of these players are scum.

I'm willing to make that gamble on two players - and if I see any indication that a tie is in the works, I'll do what I can to try preventing that tie - even if it means I don't lynch the candidate I felt most strongly about.

[ChippeRock]

Chippe, have you talked about your reads of et and EP yet? That's the most important thing to look at today.

I'm thinking about them. All of these detailed reads on both of them are making me go back and forth. I'm hoping ND will post his Espresso read soon...

Are you going to base your read on how ND reads them?

Not necessarily - but his read is one of the several insightful perspectives on the two candidates and I'll take his perspective into consideration into my read.

[xorxes]

I've never seen you type like that. Is that a copy-paste of Teacon's garbage "analysis" ?

This is backwards. It's usually ND that tries to bait Durga, not the other way around.

[Durga]

Also, both teacon & MoscowFleet are INTENTIONALLY lurking - as both have been online withing the past 12 hours of this post. This really needs to be addressed... Although they're the most blatant case of lurking, they're not the only ones unfortunately...

Maybe reading to catch up?

I don't like posting until I'm caught up (other than to say 'catching up').

What I'm saying is that in a game this size apparent lurking might not be actual lurking.

Neither posted during the first night either. And Moscow had 4 posts total Day 1. It's been longer than 65 hours since both of their last posts (68 hours for MoscowFleet - who's made a grand total of 4 useless posts)! They've both been online in that timespan. I really can't see how it's NOT lurking.

But Chippe!! What about YOUR CASE!

[Durga]

Honestly, no one's on EP's side which makes me think he's town.

I am stilk on EP side, even considering et seemed a lot towny in his last interactions.

So because you're on his side, I should consider him to be less town?

[damo666]

If Chips is determined to not allow a tie and with the vote currently at 10-5 we may as well end it, no?

I'll hold off voting end for a while to give people a chance to comment.

[Durga]

Guys- let’s stop narrowing down the judge pool since they get they ability twice per game and it would be really useful to have again.

I'm operating under the assumption that any smart judge complains about the lynch picks.

ANY OTHER HINTS YOU'D LIKE TO GIVE THE SCUM TEAM?

Really Fox?

[Durga]

I've never seen you type like that. Is that a copy-paste of Teacon's garbage "analysis" ?

This is backwards. It's usually ND that tries to bait Durga, not the other way around.

It's not bait.

[Durga]

I can't decide who I want dead. But I DO want to see EP's reads before I make a decision

[ND]

Damo wants to end it. Doesn't the phase already end in a few hours (3PM EST right?)

Of the two, I still hold that EP is town. So I'm not voting for him. I don't really see why he is being voted up. It's dumb imo.

[xorxes]

Several people have expressed towny feelings regarding Espressos lengthy posts. I just want to remind everyone that those are much less “readable” than off the cuff moments. It is useful information potentially, but I’d be careful townreadinf someone based on posts that can be very carefully crafted like that. Off the cuff, quick responses are much more readable than those long crafted messages.

That's what I think.

[ND]

True and that point is fair play, and I've read ET. I'm not seeing a gold mine of off the cuff town indicative statements at all.