Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[EspressoPatronum]

@Espresso your Part II isn't looking hot at all
You basically just said if et claims PR he is scum sigh does that mean in your view he isn't scum right now?

Also your "It's too early criticism" response, Im not buying it

Please quote the part where I say this. I think you've misread or misunderstood what I wrote.

What part of my response to the timing criticism are you not buying? Please read my interaction with Neph first, then point me to the specifics. I can't formulate a surrebuttal if you keep making sweeping remarks about my arguments.

[TrPrado]

@Espresso your Part II isn't looking hot at all
You basically just said if et claims PR he is scum sigh does that mean in your view he isn't scum right now?

Also your "It's too early criticism" response, Im not buying it

Please quote the part where I say this. I think you've misread or misunderstood what I wrote.

What part of my response to the timing criticism are you not buying? Please read my interaction with Neph first, then point me to the specifics. I can't formulate a surrebuttal if you keep making sweeping remarks about my arguments.

He does that.

[FlaviusAetius]

@Espresso, you say you've played this a lot IRL and so I would have hoped that you would have logically waited until closer to the phase, we almost always have enough people online to change things if you he claims. Doing so now is horribly poor play.

See the "it's too early" criticism.

Also worth noting that all IRL games play out within 20-60 mins. There isn't really any 'waiting until EoD' kind of stuff.

Theres an easy counter though,

If you are clearly going to be lynched then ET doesnt need to claim at all and going by your plan you have just outed (and therefore killed) a PR. I believe that is goal C...

Your plan undermines your own goals.

EXACTLY

[FlaviusAetius]

@Espresso your Part II isn't looking hot at all
You basically just said if et claims PR he is scum sigh does that mean in your view he isn't scum right now?

Also your "It's too early criticism" response, Im not buying it

Please quote the part where I say this. I think you've misread or misunderstood what I wrote.

What part of my response to the timing criticism are you not buying? Please read my interaction with Neph first, then point me to the specifics. I can't formulate a surrebuttal if you keep making sweeping remarks about my arguments.

I didnt believe the person who said you were making up things, now I do;

If I were scum in my position, I would claim a PR every time. I’ll get into why later, but first consider the theory behind it: if the Premise is the town’s prime directive, then the mafia’s primary goal is the opposite: get the town to lynch PRs. If the town wants to lynch maf and protect PRs, maf want to do the opposite: lynch town, find PRs, protect maf.

If you’re a caught scum (especially a scum caught in a 50/50) you lose nothing from a PR claim. At worst, the real PR CCs you and you die. Your maf kill the PR that night. At best, the real PR gets lynched, you survive one more night, then the town has to spend another day to get you lynched. That’s a huge win for the maf team right there.

Now this all boils down to: would this EP noob actually fake claim? Here’s where @Durga comes in. I’ve done fake claims in Secret Hitler before (remember the claim against SHL?). I’m also pretty sure I’ve mentioned before that my favourite role in Werewolf is the sorceress (think evil cop) because you get to fake claim against the seer (cop) when you find them. My mindset in this game is to win as the team, and sacrificing myself to take down

In those three paragraphs you specifically say if et claimed, he would be scum. He had ample time to claim and DIDNT does that not make him town in your eyes??

[FlaviusAetius]

@Espresso, you say you've played this a lot IRL and so I would have hoped that you would have logically waited until closer to the phase, we almost always have enough people online to change things if you he claims. Doing so now is horribly poor play.

Agreed!

This about explains it PERFECTLY about why your 'Its too early' criticisms are ridiculous

[EspressoPatronum]

I'm saying it's equally bad and I don't know how you don't get it.

Wtf. Lynching a PR is SO MUCH WORSE than a PR getting NK'd. If we lynch a PR then scum might nk another PR and we lose 2 PR

The key word is might. It also presumes the worst case scenario of everyone jumping on a PR and forcing him to out whereas if we didn't they wouldn't see the need. And yet there's a whole strategy talk about doing it absolutely right now. "The Premise" is poisoning the well and guaranteeing a PR goes down.

First, regarding your worries in general.

Are you familiar with chess? I think it might provide a helpful analogy to highlight the difference between a PR getting lynched and a PR dying.

Lynching the PR is like making a blunder in chess and losing your queen for nothing.

Having a PR claim to avoid a lynch is like sacrificing your queen to grab material elsewhere.

Nobody is saying losing a PR (or a Queen in chess) is good. All we're saying is lynching a PR is worse than a PR dying at night... just like blundering your queen is worse than sacrificing it with purpose.

Second, regarding the bolded text... we're operating under the worst case scenario of an already worst case scenario. You're saying we're focusing too much on the chance that et!PR dies, but you're ignoring the fact that et!PR is extremely unlikely in the first place. If you're willing to entertain one worst-case scenario (ie. et!PR being the victim of a judge), you should also be willing to entertain the best and worst scenarios that follow from that.

[FlaviusAetius]

You also have completely skipped over the Nepthys post about your 'Its too early' criticism and how he didnt believe it either, and started to respond to other stuff instead. Why? Respond to it please

[Balki Bartokomous]

The key word is might. It also presumes the worst case scenario of everyone jumping on a PR and forcing him to out whereas if we didn't they wouldn't see the need. And yet there's a whole strategy talk about doing it absolutely right now. "The Premise" is poisoning the well and guaranteeing a PR goes down.

I don't understand what you're talking about.

Whether ET is a PR or not, he should not claim his role now, and may have no reason to claim his role at all today. If he does not claim, Scum will have no reason to suspect that he is any more likely to be a PR than any other townie who has not claimed. Nothing that anyone has done has "guaranteed a PR goes down."

[EspressoPatronum]

@Espresso your Part II isn't looking hot at all
You basically just said if et claims PR he is scum sigh does that mean in your view he isn't scum right now?

Also your "It's too early criticism" response, Im not buying it

Please quote the part where I say this. I think you've misread or misunderstood what I wrote.

What part of my response to the timing criticism are you not buying? Please read my interaction with Neph first, then point me to the specifics. I can't formulate a surrebuttal if you keep making sweeping remarks about my arguments.

I didnt believe the person who said you were making up things, now I do;

If I were scum in my position, I would claim a PR every time. I’ll get into why later, but first consider the theory behind it: if the Premise is the town’s prime directive, then the mafia’s primary goal is the opposite: get the town to lynch PRs. If the town wants to lynch maf and protect PRs, maf want to do the opposite: lynch town, find PRs, protect maf.

If you’re a caught scum (especially a scum caught in a 50/50) you lose nothing from a PR claim. At worst, the real PR CCs you and you die. Your maf kill the PR that night. At best, the real PR gets lynched, you survive one more night, then the town has to spend another day to get you lynched. That’s a huge win for the maf team right there.

Now this all boils down to: would this EP noob actually fake claim? Here’s where @Durga comes in. I’ve done fake claims in Secret Hitler before (remember the claim against SHL?). I’m also pretty sure I’ve mentioned before that my favourite role in Werewolf is the sorceress (think evil cop) because you get to fake claim against the seer (cop) when you find them. My mindset in this game is to win as the team, and sacrificing myself to take down

In those three paragraphs you specifically say if et claimed, he would be scum. He had ample time to claim and DIDNT does that not make him town in your eyes??

I see... you misread the section. This is specifically under the "My Actions This Game, C. How I Normally Behave - Hypotheticals" section. This is the part of the section in which I am telling you how I would normally behave if I were scum. I argue that I did not claim a PR in a situation in which I would fake claim, so you have more reason to trust me as VT.

I have no idea how et normally plays. Perhaps this section could be useful if someone can attest to his claiming behaviours. For now, I don't know if it's useful for me to assume he would make the same plays as me.

Look at my discussion on Scenarios with Neph and Balki to see a objective(ish) take on how I think an et PR claim would result.

[EspressoPatronum]

@Flav I'm going to wait until you're fully caught up before I say anything else. It's clear you're still behind. Quote this at me with any questions AFTER you're fully caught up.

[FlaviusAetius]

btw we should also determine who we think the Blind Assasin should kill.
My suggestion when talking about this;
JUST SAY WHO YOU THINK HE SHOULD KILL AND WHY, AND LEAVE IT AT THAT
We dont want crumbs to the Blind Assasin
I say kill Foxcastle he was the biggest wagon before this judge stuff

[FlaviusAetius]

@Flav I'm going to wait until you're fully caught up before I say anything else. It's clear you're still behind. Quote this at me with any questions AFTER you're fully caught up.

I am caught up???

[FlaviusAetius]

I dont really understand the scenarios you guys were talking about

[FlaviusAetius]

Ill reread it tomorrow, I have to go to bed now

[EspressoPatronum]

@Flav I'm going to wait until you're fully caught up before I say anything else. It's clear you're still behind. Quote this at me with any questions AFTER you're fully caught up.

I am caught up???

Then why are you asking me to respond to posts I've already responded to?

I responded to Neph's questions from page 129, 130, and 131...

[TrPrado]

The key word is might. It also presumes the worst case scenario of everyone jumping on a PR and forcing him to out whereas if we didn't they wouldn't see the need. And yet there's a whole strategy talk about doing it absolutely right now. "The Premise" is poisoning the well and guaranteeing a PR goes down.

I don't understand what you're talking about.

Whether ET is a PR or not, he should not claim his role now, and may have no reason to claim his role at all today. If he does not claim, Scum will have no reason to suspect that he is any more likely to be a PR than any other townie who has not claimed. Nothing that anyone has done has "guaranteed a PR goes down."

My starting point was et shouldn’t claim.

[Squigs44]

We've been arguing for a long time about whether EspressoPatronums play was optimal. The general consensus is that no, it was not.
Whether his play was optimal or not doesn't matter. What matters is whether his play was scummy or not. For anyone wishing to move on from this tireless back and forth, answer these NEW questions:

Do you think that EP pulled this move to fish for PRs? Why or why not?
Do you think that EP pulled this move to look more townie? Why or why not?
Do you think EP actually believes his long post (does it feel genuine), or do you think he wrote it simply to defend himself?
Besides this play, and his posts being "calculated" what other reasons do you see for him being scum?

[Squigs44]

Answer for Squigs.
Questions for et:
Why did you defend Percy's vote when Percy gave no reasoning, but scumread Bozo's vote when he gave no reasoning?

I didn't scumread bozo because he gave no reason.
bozo voted Chipe when Chipe was already voted by many players.
Firstly, I thought he may be irritated by Chipe's post as Durga and didn't want to talke about Chipe.
But he said he read Chip as scum. And he didn't explain why he read Chipe as scum at first. So I was starting to doubt bozo. I thought he just want to alive and vote to a player about to be victim of lynch.
And Percy voted bozo when no one voted bozo.
I think, his thought is what I thought. And, I read Percy as town because of same thought.

Thank you, after reading through your post three more times with this answer you just gave I finally see what this post was actually saying. I think.

After Bozo gave clear reasoning for his vote, did this impact your read on him?

Yes. He said, he read Chip as scum. And he didn't say why he read Chip as scum at first.
So, I read boz as scum strongly after I read it.


I leave here about half an hour, I will answer remaining questions afterward.

Help me out here. You are saying when Bozo originally didn't give a reason, you did not scumread him. But after he gave his reason and you read it, you did scumread him?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Okay, I just read an et ISO. Pretty sure he is Town.

Things I like:

- He does a lot of town reading people who other people are scum reading. Generally, that's something that townfolk do a lot more than scumfolk. Speaking very generally, scumfolk more often townread people who are widely townread. Scumfolk don't want to (a) lose a potential mislynch target, or (b) overtly defend a scumbuddy. So, by and large, town reads from scum are given only to people who lots of others read as town. That is not a hard and fast rule, but it's a decent rule of thumb.

ET has had solid town reads on Carl, Chippe, teacon, and Percy, and at least a soft town read on Flavius (see pages 27, 53, 120). I'd say that, were et scum, it's pretty unlikely that he would have town reads on Chippe, teacon, Percy, and Flavius, as he would perceive them as mislynch targets (or else a scumbuddy). I just would not expect that. There was nothing forcing ET to townread those people. He had to go against the grain to do it, and he didn't even explain those reads very thoroughly. I don't think Scum!et makes those reads.

- His vote for Bozo seems sincere. Here is what he wrote at page 55:

My thought is that.
boz voted Chip because of many plays had voted.
And he don't join any conversation. Just he answered a few questions for him.
Because he don't want to stand out.
He don't make effort to find scum.
He just want to alive.
So, I think he is scum.

This especially makes sense after ET townread Chippe, and I generally grok the reasoning. I think ET understands this game, and is generally making sensible arguments. We shouldn't think of him as unsophisticated just because his posts reflect sometimes that English is not his first language.

Beyond that, it's just a tonal thing. His posts ring sincere to me, and I like how he has handled the claim/don't claim thing.

[et]

​To Espresso

Et’s questions/comments
“Why Espresso encouraged me to claim?
I think 4 cases.
1 Espresso is VT and he thought of me as VT
In this case, I think we had better not to claim.
Mafia may think of aliving one as PR.
2 Espresso is VT and he thought of me as town PR
In this case, he had better to say that 'I am VT, not PR. So, please vote me'
3 Espresso is VT and he thought of me as Scum
If I were scum and claimed town PR, he would be killed by lynch.
But, I alive at next day. Town can doubte me.
4 Espresso is scum.
As Prad said.
I think, most likely 3. But 4 is possible too.”

I hope my posts have shown you that I had scenarios 1-3 in mind.

I understand what you said but I have different thought.
If I claimed PR, just you are voted all players (or no lynch is possible too).
We can't get much information about other players.
I think judge don't hope so.
So, I think that's too early.
I don't try to persuade you.
Please receive as my opinion.