Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[rdrivera2005]

I'm guessing English is rdrivera's 2nd language so I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from pronoun usage.

Exactly. I usually double check my messages to avoid this kind of ugly mistakes, but sometimes it happens.
And why people think I am a serial busser?

[Maniac]

@rdrivera - what do you make of reedeer's recent RB claim? If true, it would mean that the Nurse would know that one of Balki/reedeer is a townclear

The nurse wouldn't have a clue if the person they didn't RB was clear. In this set up sending out the hooker to roleblock could get the hooker watched and killed. There is more reason in this game to hold a roleblock and for scum to fake claim one.

Reedeer1's delay is interesting. Perhaps he is scum who was RB by nurse and kept quiet because people claiming RB actually attract attention rather than been semi-cleared.

[rdrivera2005]

@rdrivera - what do you make of reedeer's recent RB claim? If true, it would mean that the Nurse would know that one of Balki/reedeer is a townclear

The nurse wouldn't have a clue if the person they didn't RB was clear. In this set up sending out the hooker to roleblock could get the hooker watched and killed. There is more reason in this game to hold a roleblock and for scum to fake claim one.

Reedeer1's delay is interesting. Perhaps he is scum who was RB by nurse and kept quiet because people claiming RB actually attract attention rather than been semi-cleared.

I considered this option and it was one of the reasons I thought for his late claim, as Nurse will expose him later. The other option is scum didn't RB N1 to try to make someone look good by claiming RB. But then why claim now?
I have reread Reedeer D1 again and can't find a single reason for either nurse or Hooker target him. I stopped pushing him now because I fear another Yav.

[Hellenic Riot]

##GM Note: Peterlund is aware of a potential issue where votes cast in the same minute may not appear in the correct order in the tracker. This is caused by the fact that the new forum does not have a timestamp accurate to the nearest second (instead, it's the nearest minute), and he intends to try and find a fix in the next few days.



Day 4 Vote Count 1.0

MeanLaQueefa (3): Balki Bartokomous, Tom Bombadil, rdrivera2005
thamrick (1): VashtaNeurotic
bozotheclown (1): DemonRHK
captainmeme (1): Foxcastle
Balki Bartokomous (1): MeanLaQueefa
bo_sox48 (1): thamrick

Currently MEANLAQUEEFA is set to be lynched!

You have 11 hours and 30 minutes remaining.

[Maniac]

People I’m unlikely to vote for today unless given a very good reason to change my mind. This doesn’t clear them in any sense. They are just not good lynches today. I’m giving short reasons only.

Balki Bartokomous – voted for Jamie D1 and then claimed RB N1. Would scum fake a RB claim on someone who (a) had a good vote record and (b) was a counter wagon late into D1? It’s possible but unlikely. Obviously it’s possible that nurse was protecting him and roleblock has no value one way or the other.
DemonRHK – claims watcher. If he is scum then he’ll die once real watcher dies or is revealed. I’m treating as soft-town clear and listening to his cases with that in mind.
reedeer1 - voted for Jamie D1 at a critical time and then claimed RB N1. This could be nurse Roleblock of course. I like that reedeer didn’t declare a RB early. However, reedeer is far from clear. If he felt under pressure perhaps he and scum have tried to use the N1 missing roleblock as a way of protecting reedeer somewhat.
Tom Bombadil – claimed a doc save. I trust this as if nurse every exposes that it is false, Tom insta-dies. I’m treating Tom as clear and listening to his advice.
VashtaNeurotic – has a good voting record, was counter wagon to RJ and yavuz flipping town really helps Vash. The Deadpool on D2 was Scum RJ, Town Yavuz and Vash. If Vash was also scum we would have seen a lot more pressure on Yavuz and there was virtually none.
Foxcastle – my wild card save. I’ve seen nothing scummy from him at all and lots of pro-town stuff.

This leaves:
bo_sox48 – poor voting record
bozotheclown - poor voting record
CAPTdargorygel - poor voting record and lurker in chief
MeanLaQueefa – poor voting record
rdrivera2005 – really good voting record.
Thamrick – poor voting record, claimed RB N2

This list is alphabetical. However as it happens the two at the bottom are the two I'd be less likely to vote for and I suspect MLQ may be engaged in Town v Town with Balki.

Tom, DemonRHK and Vash – is there anybody you’d like to save from the second group, or anybody from the top group that shouldn’t be there?

[Tom Bombadil]

Maniac - It would be very difficult for me to be convinced to vote for thamrick at this point.

[captainmeme]

Hi guys,

I only took the position because it was supposed to be a temporary substitution while Darg was too busy to play, but it's now seemingly turned into a permanent one. I'd intended to be more active than this anyway, but with the tournaments and other stuff going on I haven't had the chance to catch up (and let's face it, I was never good at catching up on missed mafia even at the best of times).

I've requested replacement but I don't think there is anyone, otherwise I would've never been asked in the first place. I'm VT, so it's not a big loss if town loses me, so I'm not going to put in a vote today - either you'll get a more active replacement or you'll save yourselves wasting a lynch on me, it's a win either way.

[Foxcastle]

Has anyone compiled a complete list of RB claims?

[thamrick]

Sorry to hear that Meme.

Hard for me to imagine that being a scum ploy, unless he knew he was going to be subbed.

Pretty sad that town has essentially been dealt a -4 handicap (two modkill VTs, and the two Yav cost us lol) and I still feel good about a town win here.

@Foxy -
N1: Balki and reedeer
N2: Maniac and me
N3: RHK and Tom

[thamrick]

Take it for what it's worth with my status being unclear, but here's my list of likeliest to flip scum from least to most likely:

Maniac
Tom Bombadil
DemonRHK** - I've stated my reservations about his claim enough. If CC'd, he'd move to the bottom.
VashtaNeurotic
Foxcastle
reedeer1
rdrivera2005
bozotheclown
Balki Bartokomous
MeanLaQueefa
bo_sox48

captainmeme** - says he'll be modkilled and flip VT. I had him between Balki and MLQ prior to that

Nothing groundbreaking, I know. But I feel pretty good about Maniac's list.

Basically my cases against the bottom 2 break down to this:

Bo
-Weird RJ/Bo interaction D2 while scumreading RJ.
-Unwavering defense of lynching Yav
-Staying just under the radar enough to avoid suspicion
-Frozen votes on town

MLQ
-RJ setting up as town leader
-Consistent townread by Jamiet
-Not processing options like a townsperson (Yav could be Cop, RHK's claim could be false, etc)


I feel like MLQ has been on defense more this game so it makes sense why she feels off, but I just have a bad feeling about Bo. I'm fine with flipping either of them. Whichever doesn't flip will become my highest scumread tomorrow, pending the new info their flip and the night actions reveals.

[Tom Bombadil]

Why is Foxy so high on your townreads?

Why are we so suspicious of rdrivera (saying he could have bussed) but letting Foxy slide because he parked an early vote on rj day 2?

[Tom Bombadil]

Rd was pretty important votes in both the Jamie and the rj lynch.

Foxy was neither - though he was on the rj wagon early.

[Tom Bombadil]

Seems like his vote was a likelier bus than rivera's with 6 minutes left which put rj only one vote behind Vash.

[Foxcastle]

I had been scumreading and pushing Rjm hard for days, Tom, and skipped several good opportunities to get off Rjm (particularly for ND, my D1 vote; as well as going back onto your wagon, that I moved off of for Rjm). So if I'm a busser, I'm at least good enough to not look opportunistic about it.

[Tom Bombadil]

"So if I'm a busser, I'm at least good enough to not look opportunistic about it."

Lol. This is exactly what I'm worried about.

[Tom Bombadil]

You weren't exactly beating the lynch rj drum when it mattered. Your vote was there - but you had 13 posts after your vote, and only one mentioned rj. You weren't exactly pushing the lynch.

And you only voted rj after my wagon seemed to fizzle. And you had no problem voting rj when me, your top scumread, was the only other person voting rj. Did that contradiction cross your mind at the time?

[thamrick]

As far as the roleblock situation I can go either way. I see why it makes a ton of sense to holster the roleblock as mafia. However, in the setup we have with Nurse and Hooker RBs, I'm sure mafia knows that it doesn't produce an automatic townclear and that only the Nurse would know which the mafia RB target was and would have to reveal themself to reveal which was the Nurse and mafia RBs (and that wouldn't even clear the mafia RB as it could be a mafia claim of a holstered RB).

Of the 3, I see why mine draws a lot of doubt. It would have been a relatively safe time to holster the RB for mafia and claim it, assuming Nurse would save Maniac. In hindsight, I wish I had waited to reveal RB to see if a scum had tried to claim it. But I know I was RB'd and now know Maniac was too so I stand by my claim that I was most likely Hooker RB'd.

RHK's is 50/50. If he's real Watcher, yeah it makes sense for mafia to RB him. If he's not, yeah, he'd obviously tell his teammates to holster and let him claim it.
I have trouble doubting Tom's save and RB claim since the Nurse would easily be able to dispute it. If it comes down everyone having evidence supporting their town status, we can revisit Tom, but I believe him.

I don't know what to make of the reedeer/Balki claims. Balki claimed confidently which could indicate a scum ploy to clear himself, but he didn't push for a 2nd claim to come forward (which he would have known there was a missing Nurse RB if he was scum). reedeer gave some decent justification for withholding the info and while I don't know if it was the right thing to do or not, I can at least buy the sincerity and believe it for now.

Overall, I think it makes more sense for mafia to use their RB ability as they know it doesn't produce a townclear and would draw the Nurse out to really be a detriment to them (and still leave uncertainty for town). They can risk it to potentially hit a town PR.

As far as who they've targetted, I don't see much reason to the first 2. Balki and reedeer don't particularly stand out to me as potential PRs N1. On close re-read for both, I could see a couple small things that maybe Nurse or mafia took as PR slips. Still no clue why I was RB'd N2. As stated above, RHK's is obvious either way.

[Foxcastle]

Not that I recall. My scumread of you was never that strong, and I was busily tunneling Rjm anyway. I didn't actually expect him to go up, I didn't think there was appetite for it yet.

[Tom Bombadil]

Who are your top 3 lynch targets today foxy?

[thamrick]

Why is Foxy so high on your townreads?

Why are we so suspicious of rdrivera (saying he could have bussed) but letting Foxy slide because he parked an early vote on rj day 2?

I assume this is directed at me. There's a pretty clear divide between my certainty about those above Foxy and the next 3. Foxy has just seemed pro-town the entire time to me. If he's scum, he's playing it brilliantly (possible since he is the reigning MVP).

rdrivera isn't a strong suspect for me. I agree his votes both look good. Both contributed to lynching scum, but neither directly caused it. He's a POE non-suspect for me.