Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[MeanLaQueefa]

Fox: "What if I told you that, in my (one game) experience, the NK is generally executed on one vote (the vote of scum conducting the kill), and that it's likely that the scum team is operating on consensus, rather than actually holding elections for the NK. Does that change your assessment?"

That is very different than I'm used to. I'm use to the mafia having to unanimously decide on who to kill, if it isn't unanimous, the kill doesn't happen. That's how it's played irl. Yeah if one person can change the vote, they could have switched onto brain, but I still think he was probably targeted for his general towniness more than his likelihood of being a PR.

[Tom Bombadil]

"Tom, I asked you to not throw around bs statements about me being scum without giving reasons, then you ask me "why you nk me mean?" If you're normally a nice person, why'd you choose to take the low road in that moment?"

Half of mafia is throwing around bs statements without giving reasons and seeing how people react...

[Tom Bombadil]

I'll look forward to your thoughts on Balki when you get to it - no rush.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I see some very simplistic arguments made about the whole Yavuz debacle. I just want to flesh out some thoughts I have about what we should be looking for.

A difficult part of analyzing that sequence is that we don't know what scum knew exactly. Scum knew that both Yavuz and ND were town. But we don't know if they stalked either Yavuz or ND, and that would have a large impact on how their motivations there. If scum scanned either one, then they would have known that Yavuz was not cop.

I would bet that scum did not scan ND. ND was the leading lynch target with about an hour to go Day 1, and he did not claim a PR. That likely made him less of a priority for a stalk.

Yavuz would have been a possible stalk target. He was never close enough to the lynch to be forced to claim a PR, and he was probably unlikely to be watched by Watcher. That said, scum only had two stalks before the Yavuz claim, and there were and are still plenty of potential cops. I think that Scum have a tendency to scan for more experienced PR as a general matter unless their following a breadcrumb train or something like that. I'd say that the most likely scenario is that scum did not stalk either Yavuz or ND, which means they would have assumed that Yavuz was cop and ND was Miller. We can't count on that, but I think it's most likely.

So, how do expect them to behave when Cop comes forward with a guilty scan on someone they know is Town but who they probably think must be miller?

At the start of that day, I think we were likely on the right track. We were zeroing in on a couple of targets, and I'd be very surprised if we didn't have at least one scum as a likely leading wagon. Then all of a sudden it looks like Cop comes forward with a guilty scan on a townie. It's a huge break for them.

I think the most likely reaction for scum there is to sit back and be passive. They don't have the same kinds of burning questions or innate suspicion that Townies have. They know Yavuz is Town and they likely have no reason to disbelieve his claim. They also know, based on the claim, that a Townie is going to be lynched. So the natural tendency is to sit back and watch town meltdown.

Over at Playdip, we call this phenomenon: "Nazi tea." Because back in some game somewhere, somebody said, during a town-on-town meltdown, "I'll bet scum are just sitting back and drinking Nazi tea right now." It's the idea that when townies are involved in some chaos and infighting, scum take a back seat and watch.

I'm going to go back through the full episode, beginning with the Yavuz claim. I'll betcha that scum are not in the forefront, that they are sitting back, sipping Nazi tea, and letting Town have it out with each other.

Without going back and reading at all, this is a primary reason why I'm pretty sure Thamrick is town. DemonRHK too, if it wasn't obvious before.

[DemonRHK]

Fox was correct on why Tom isn't 100% but close enough in my book. There is an abysmally low chance Maf Tom is claiming a held kill and save in hopes to draw out the Nurse. There is zero use in discussing it though. For all intents Tom is clear.

I do not see how the town votes that ended up lynching Rjmcf in any way clears Vashta. Two of three known town votes were Maniac and brain, who were scum reading Vashta and helped start the Vashta wagon.

Day 2:

RJ: Tom, Fox, ND, Vash, rd, Maniac, Ezio, brain
Vash: RHK, Balki, bozo, MLQ, tham
ND: bo, yavu
Ezio: reedeer, meme
Tom: RJ

The bolded names are conf town, townclears. For the sake of not pissing off the peanut gallery I didn't even include myself as townclear. RJ was on Tom. That leaves 10. Let's drop me, the clears, RJ:

RJ: Fox, Vash, rd
Vash: Balki, bozo, MLQ, tham
ND: bo
Ezio: reedeer, meme

30% scum in this group. AS much as it pains me to say it, rd looks good here, his vote making it 6-5 Vash from 6-4 Vash. For solely the purposes of this, let's drop him.

RJ: Fox, Vash
Vash: Balki, bozo, MLQ, tham
ND: bo
Ezio: reedeer, meme

And now let's point out everyone that posted in the last hour:

RJ: Fox, Vash
Vash: Balki, bozo, MLQ, tham
ND: bo
Ezio: reedeer, meme

And then of those people who voted in that span against the scumwagon.

RJ: Fox, Vash
Vash: Balki (Twice), bozo (Twice), MLQ, tham (Twice)
ND: bo
Ezio: reedeer, meme

The entire unclear Vash wagon (And, in fairness, myself included), was active and pushing him against the Witch's wagon at EOD. There are three scum in this grouping. I'd advance the theory that at LEAST 2 members of the Vash wagon are scum, and 1 of the lurkers. Taking's tham's hooker rb as true for now, my best assessment is:
Two of Balki, bozo, and Mean are scum.
One of bo, reedeer, and meme are scum.

This analysis however may not hold up in the event Vash is scum. In that scenario mafia was fucked and the majority could have been in the lurks.

[thamrick]

Interesting analysis RHK. What did you mean "30% scum in this group"?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki - explain this comment please:

Let's flip Vashta.

##Vote Vashta

Snowy would want it that way.

I don't know, I feel a little gross about this. I don't like our lynchpool. But Vashta has done nothing, he may be scum, and he's not helping us if we're town.

That was my Vashta vote. I didn't love voting for Vashta because I found him very Null. He had contributed basically nothing, and we had no useful associations to evaluate with him. He was "50 shades of grey." No data. A poor lynch. I felt gross about it because I didn't think it was a good lynch, but I felt locked in by our small and changing lynchpool and because I felt like RJ was probably town based on his "vomit on the page" lack of fear. I said "Snowy would want it that way" because Snowy made a comment near the end of Day 1 that, when in doubt, we should lynch Vashta because he is more hurtful than helpful to Town at the end of the game, even when he is "town=aligned" based on role PM.

Do you have any more specific questions about it?

Also, why did you eventually end up voting for ND? Still feel good about your decision?

I think I put my thoughts down pretty clearly on the page around my ND vote. Initially I was thinking that it would be best for us to resolve the DemonRHK/Yavuz CC so that our Nurse and Watcher would know where to go to protect our PRs. And I also have felt pretty sure that DemonRHK is Town since Day 1, and so I was much more skeptical of Yavuz after DemonRHK said the Night 1 scan had to be false.

I changed my mind after a discussion about PR strategy in thread. One problem with the "let the PRs all protect each other" strategy is that neither Cop nor Watcher get a scan off when Nurse protects them (kind of a unique part of this game), which means that when the PRs go into "hunker down and protect each other mode," and mafia still have a RB, they PRs can't actually get us much more information.

Based on that, I figured it was better to kill the guilty scan and let a bit of time sort out the PR claimers, especially because we were winning, and were better off employing a less risky strategy.

Do I still feel good about my decision? Well, knowing what I know now, obviously not. I wish we would have just continued to lynch MLQ. But I think I made the right vote with the knowledge I had at the time. We've simply lost some VTs, while our Cop continues to stay hidden and get scans, and our Watcher, Nurse, and GS are still alive. I think the lower risk strategy was the right approach there for a town that was and is clearly in the lead.

[Tom Bombadil]

10 players, 3 scum left = 30%

[rdrivera2005]

@rdrivera - I also find it odd that you've been saying you are scumreading reedeer but haven't really built a case yourself. You said you have re-read reedeer and are having trouble building a case? Why so sure about him then? Why ask me to look into him if you can't even build your own case?

Fair point. I want to see if I weren't just tunneling as seems many people townread him. And your post show exactly what I am thinking, he could be the deep threat and I want him to engage more, but without pressure I don't think it will happen. But I can't point a single post or vote and say "look this proves he is likely scum". I could also pressure Mean but he is already been under pressure.

[thamrick]

Okay. I also have issues with dropping himself and rdr from the analysis but thanks Tom.

[thamrick]

Nope. No follow-up questions Balki to that train of thought.

I agree with your analysis that a lot of this depends on what scum knew re: ND and Yav's roles and I also agree it unlikely they had scanned either. Though it is certainly something to keep in mind.

Shocking, I know, but no one immediately comes to mind when I think about scum drinking Nazi tea. Most of my scum suspects were involved in the conversation to some extent.

[thamrick]

I could also pressure Mean but he is already been under pressure.

"He" is a "she"

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Balki - then I would just like your thoughts about the current state of the game, how to proceed, who you suspect and why

Before my reread, my scum team is MLQ, Bo, and captainmeme.
Still in a Null space: rdrivera, Foxy Knoxy
And a growing list of people I wouldn't lynch in a million years. In order: Maniac, Tom, DemonRHK, Reedeer, Thamrick, Bozo.

[Foxcastle]

Wanna get on my Captainmeme pressure wagon, Balki?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Oh, I'm missing Vashta. Vashta probably goes on the end of my "Not in a million years" group. Or else he's the towniest of the Null void. He's sort of in between there.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Wanna get on my Captainmeme pressure wagon, Balki?

Nah, not really.

##vote MLQ

I know that it's en vogue to say I am "tunneling" here. That's true in the sense that MLQ has been my strongest scum read since Day 1. But the evidence has only become stronger, and we have not lynched her. So I feel very compelled to keep explaining why I think MLQ has a greater chance of flipping scum than anyone else in the game.

Anyway, possible that will change after rereading the Yavuz episode. I'll give you my thoughts as I have them.

[thamrick]

Not to distract you from the Yav reread Balki, as I find it a very entertaining read, but I think you'll be disappointed by your current scumreads. If you had to drop 1 of the 3 from the list, who would you drop?

[Tom Bombadil]

Ugh. I don't want to have to reread Foxy too. Everything that comes out of his mouth seems so towny. But I also think that even though he has played only one game, that he is a very strong player.

I like Balki's reads list.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Oh, I'm missing Vashta. Vashta probably goes on the end of my "Not in a million years" group. Or else he's the towniest of the Null void. He's sort of in between there.

No, I can't put Vashta in the "not in a million years" group. He goes in like a "I wouldn't lynch him in the next 8 days" group.

[Tom Bombadil]

I like that you just quoted yourself.

##vote MLQ. 99% change of being scum. Just to grind her gears.