War, what is it good for?

[Jamiet99uk]

I disagree. Nuclear warfare is widely viewed (and rightly so) as inherently different than conventional strikes or even invasion. Any nation using a nuke without unilateral agreement from her allies would be shunned by those allies.

But perpetrating a genocide in which tens of thousands of civilians are murdered in plain view of the world does not result in shunning.

Explain that to us.

I am inclined to think that if Israel fired a nuclear missile at Tehran today, Trump would applaud, Keith Starmer would do nothing at all, and Bert would be in here saying "thank goodness Iran was stopped from getting the bomb".

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I disagree. Nuclear warfare is widely viewed (and rightly so) as inherently different than conventional strikes or even invasion. Any nation using a nuke without unilateral agreement from her allies would be shunned by those allies.

But perpetrating a genocide in which tens of thousands of civilians are murdered in plain view of the world does not result in shunning.

Explain that to us.

I am inclined to think that if Israel fired a nuclear missile at Tehran today, Trump would applaud, Keith Starmer would do nothing at all, and Bert would be in here saying "thank goodness Iran was stopped from getting the bomb".

I guess we wouldn't know until it happened but I strongly share Fritz' view.

The reality is a big chunk of the western public has a high tolerance for masses of darker skinned people being murdered, even by their own governments/militaries but especially by foreign ones.

A nuclear launch is symbol of the end of the world. Nuclear use is threatening to everyone no matter where they're used.

Israel clearly agrees with this framing, or they would just nuke Iran's underground nuclear sites rather than begging Trump to bunker bust them.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

In this conversation (post Israel's strikes on Iran) my only real point is that it's stupid to allow ones rightful hatred for Israel to blind them to the real trade-offs at stake posed by an Iranian bomb.

Someone might make a convincing argument that Israel's actions in the past week actually greatly increase nuclear risk. That would be a lot more convincing to me than just saying "Israel is bad" and "imperialism are bad" without addressing the nuclear elephant in the room.

Given my main concern is preventing the chance of a nuclear strike, I would quite obviously be against Israel launching a nuke, even if it could somehow be proven that it was the only way to stop Iran from developing one. Israel will under no circumstances launch a first nuke strike on Iran anyhow for the reasons we've already discussed, so I'm not particularly fussed about this.

[Jamiet99uk]

In this conversation (post Israel's strikes on Iran) my only real point is that it's stupid to allow ones rightful hatred for Israel to blind them to the real trade-offs at stake posed by an Iranian bomb.

Someone might make a convincing argument that Israel's actions in the past week actually greatly increase nuclear risk. That would be a lot more convincing to me than just saying "Israel is bad" and "imperialism are bad" without addressing the nuclear elephant in the room.

Given my main concern is preventing the chance of a nuclear strike, I would quite obviously be against Israel launching a nuke, even if it could somehow be proven that it was the only way to stop Iran from developing one. Israel will under no circumstances launch a first nuke strike on Iran anyhow for the reasons we've already discussed, so I'm not particularly fussed about this.

You therefore believe that if any state in the world is suspected of developing any kind of "weapons of mass destruction", any other nation on earth is immediately justified in bombing that state?

This is what you believe, yes?

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

In this conversation (post Israel's strikes on Iran) my only real point is that it's stupid to allow ones rightful hatred for Israel to blind them to the real trade-offs at stake posed by an Iranian bomb.

Someone might make a convincing argument that Israel's actions in the past week actually greatly increase nuclear risk. That would be a lot more convincing to me than just saying "Israel is bad" and "imperialism are bad" without addressing the nuclear elephant in the room.

Given my main concern is preventing the chance of a nuclear strike, I would quite obviously be against Israel launching a nuke, even if it could somehow be proven that it was the only way to stop Iran from developing one. Israel will under no circumstances launch a first nuke strike on Iran anyhow for the reasons we've already discussed, so I'm not particularly fussed about this.

You therefore believe that if any state in the world is suspected of developing any kind of "weapons of mass destruction", any other nation on earth is immediately justified in bombing that state?

This is what you believe, yes?

You keep saying the word "suspect" as if we didn't have a ton of independently verified evidence that Iran is on the brink of making nukes.

Non-proliferation should be done first by diplomacy and economic coercion. Where that fails, like in Iran, the next best option may in fact be military action, but that's (as we can clearly see) a dangerous and uncertain approach.

If we fail to do this the chance a nuke gets used in mine or my future kids' life goes up from already unacceptable levels, which is a harm so great that many absurd and horrible things can in fact be justified to prevent it. It was a good thing that Syria's program was bombed. It's a terrible shame that North Korea has nukes. You no doubt agree it's terrible that Israel has them.

This is a problem that is going to get worse in the near future. The barriers to develop nuclear (and biological) weapons are dropping rapidly. More states and non-state actors will pursue them. We're likely to indulge an awful lot more surveillance and conventional violence in response to the horrible logic of this.

[Jamiet99uk]

Non-proliferation should be done first by diplomacy and economic coercion. Where that fails, like in Iran, the next best option may in fact be military action, but that's (as we can clearly see) a dangerous and uncertain approach.

A diplomatic route was being pursued. Iran was in regular communication with the IAEA and a major round of talks, including senior delegates from the USA (ironically) was due to take place imminently.

Israel's attack was deliberately timed to cause those diplomatic efforts to fail (as well as taking some attention off Gaza where the IDF continues to murder and torture women and children in their thousands).

Israel does not respect diplomacy and believes it has the right to kill anyone it pleases.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Non-proliferation should be done first by diplomacy and economic coercion. Where that fails, like in Iran, the next best option may in fact be military action, but that's (as we can clearly see) a dangerous and uncertain approach.

A diplomatic route was being pursued. Iran was in regular communication with the IAEA and a major round of talks, including senior delegates from the USA (ironically) was due to take place imminently.

Israel's attack was deliberately timed to cause those diplomatic efforts to fail (as well as taking some attention off Gaza where the IDF continues to murder and torture women and children in their thousands).

Israel does not respect diplomacy and believes it has the right to kill anyone it pleases.

Maybe yes. The problem is a decade+ of such talks have not prevented Iran from getting more and better weapons' grade material. The time it would take Iran to develop a working nuke has dropped every year that negotiations have been going on—and these weren't just friendly chats, the West was simultaneously imposing extremely costly sanctions (with severe humanitarian consequences).

Israel's attack was sanctioned by the US, in part to gain leverage in a negotiating approach that was clearly failing. Trump's 60-day threat, and now the two-week threat, are aimed at beating the regime into giving up its nuclear ambitions without the need for US air strikes or boots on the ground. It's deeply unclear that this will work, but it ought to be admitted that the previous approach was also failing.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Here's a probably-fair assessment of where we were at before the war from The Economist:

"Israel said it decided on war after it picked up intelligence that Iran had “accelerated significantly” towards building a nuclear weapon. It has not substantiated that claim in public. It has shared intelligence with allies, not all of whom are convinced. There is no doubt that Iran had enriched 400kg of uranium to 60% purity, a short hop from weapons-grade, a figure reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog. America’s spies also believe that Iran was researching other aspects of bomb-making. But they are sceptical that Iran was as close to building one as Israel posits."

Iran was developing a bomb. It was getting ever closer to being able to build one. But Israel probably jumped the gun earlier than other allies would have liked. Given Israel would be the target for such a weapon, it makes sense they have a lower risk tolerance than others—but their eagerness may indeed have wasted some time that *might* have been used in service of some diplomatic solution. Diplomacy, however, has not achieved much to date re: Iran's nuclear ambitions. And if diplomacy failed and Iran got the bomb, there would then be no way to stop them from having atomic weapons.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

https://newrepublic.com/post/197037/trump-white-house-nuclear-weapons-iran-fordo

Okay Jesus Christ I don't support this, even if it's an idle threat. Trump is a threat to everyone's safety, seriously fuck the people who thought he'd be a good president.

[Octavious]

So quick to believe every piece of nonsense about Trump you read, Berti. Get a grip, man. You're like a teenager who's just discovered politics

[Octavious]

Trump has threatened nothing of the sort. It's a Guardian article that casts doubts on the capability of bunker busting bomb, and specifically states Trump isn't considering nuclear weapons.

You have an official being questioned about it and he's desperately trying to quash the rumour that the much vaunted bunker buster may be ever so slightly over-hyped and not up to snuff. Then he gave the stock response of "nothing is off the table" which they reporter has got thoroughly overexcited about. Anyone who interprets this as a threat to use nukes needs to sit down, count to ten, and consider whether they've been sitting in the sun too long

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

So quick to believe every piece of nonsense about Trump you read, Berti. Get a grip, man. You're like a teenager who's just discovered politics

This was a useful check, thank you. You're right that the New Republic reporting was intentionally misleading, which is unfortunate for a paper that used to do reasonable journalism. I admit to being quite twitchy about this conflict, which is a big source of dangerous uncertainty—you're right that this particular fear did not need indulging.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I'm curious to hear your view on the situation Oct. No doubt I harass you too much on some topics, but I'm genuinely curious for an Oct's-eye-view on the situation. Did Israel err in striking Iran? What should the US, UK, etc. do?

[Octavious]

I'm curious to hear your view on the situation Oct. No doubt I harass you too much on some topics, but I'm genuinely curious for an Oct's-eye-view on the situation. Did Israel err in striking Iran? What should the US, UK, etc. do?

The UK should stay out of it as much as possible. Not our business. The usual empty statements about de-escalation and calls for peace is as far as our involvement should go.

Whether Israel has done the right thing or not remains to be seen, and may never be seen clearly. We only ever get to see the fallout of the choices made and never see what the consequences would have been if the other road was taken. If you believe that the do nothing option would inevitably lead to Tel Aviv disappearing under a mushroom cloud then pretty much any fallout from this attack is worth it. But if Israel manage to genuinely cripple Iran's nuclear ambitions with minimal losses then it'll be considered a win by the vast majority of people.

With regards to the Yanks... they will no doubt be nervous about whether their bunker buster works or not. As it stands their enemies have to assume it does... If they use it then everyone will know for sure one way or another. I think this is making them think twice about intervening more than any squeamishness about war. And it will just be airstrikes and possibly special forces ops. I don't see any appetite for an invasion. Iran may well descend into civil war, but they will see that very much as Iran's problem. Even if an Islamic State style group take over it will be an Islamic State group without nukes, which will be considered better than what currently exists with nukes.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

And it will just be airstrikes and possibly special forces ops. I don't see any appetite for an invasion.

I wonder how that might play out. If the US thought it could just use a stealth bomber and call it a day, I suspect they already would have.

The US probably needs to blow up Iranian ships and anti-air installations in the south in order to fly in with maximal safety. And Iran might react to US strikes in a way that increased the chance of war. Since the war is existential from their view, it seems like even a bunch of self-harming options are on the table—striking US bases in Qatar, hitting Saudi oil fields, cutting off oil shipping, etc. If American soldiers are dying and oil prices spike, I don't know how long the US could really hold off.

[CaptainFritz28]

I disagree. Nuclear warfare is widely viewed (and rightly so) as inherently different than conventional strikes or even invasion. Any nation using a nuke without unilateral agreement from her allies would be shunned by those allies.

But perpetrating a genocide in which tens of thousands of civilians are murdered in plain view of the world does not result in shunning.

Explain that to us.

I am inclined to think that if Israel fired a nuclear missile at Tehran today, Trump would applaud, Keith Starmer would do nothing at all, and Bert would be in here saying "thank goodness Iran was stopped from getting the bomb".

It's a lot easier to deny that a genocide is occurring than it is to deny that a nuclear weapon has been used.

[Jamiet99uk]

Well now we are seeing it play out. The USA is at war with Iran.

[Jamiet99uk]

The current state of world affairs should be terrifying to any decent human.

It isn't just the orange man-baby in the White House. We've had childish, incompetent leaders before - maybe just not as extreme or reckless as Trump. But it's more than that.

What puts us in this extreme, frightening, precarious position is the fact that we’ve been through a live-streamed genocide in Gaza over the last 20 months. Not a "war", or a "dispute", but an almost completely one-sided mass slaughter of civilians, including many children, in burned out buildings and blown-up hospitals. Many people have stood by and said nothing while this has happened. That terrifies me.

While millions _have_ marched and attended demonstrations, what have our representatives and leaders done?

All their carefully crafted "two sides" statements, all the speeches that avoided the word "genocide", all the "but Hamas", all the self-censorship on social media, all the long silences, as if they needed to be prompted and pressurised into displaying some humanity.

This weak, complicit behaviour has paved the way for the lunatic hawks to think that they can now do anything they want. In the West Bank, in Yemen, in Lebanon and now in Iran. They can reshape the world through mass murder, while the "liberal" politicians will still be thinking about how to script their next, "balanced intervention".

Fuck all of them. Fuck all of this.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I'm not sure how the obvious badness of the genocide in Gaza relates to the strikes on Iran. The US and West more generally should both stop Israel from ethnically cleansing Gaza and stop Iran from getting atomic weapons. Our failure to do one doesn't mean we should fail on both accounts.

You're decrying anticipated meddling by Israel/the US in nearby countries with no acknowledgement of how Iran has meddled ruinously in both places for many years. The status quo is also tragic, I'm not sure if it's about to get batter or worse. For Lebanon in particular, probably a lot better.

[Octavious]

If Iran has any sense they'll fire a barrage of missiles at US targets, taking great care that they are the sort of targets that can robustly defend themselves with anti missile systems so no one gets killed. That will hopefully be the end of it as far as US direct action will go.

I'm cautiously optimistic about the situation as it stands. Unless some outside influence is thrown into the mix