Mafia XL - A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum

[ND]

Both days, we have the following people on the primary wagon: ghug, Balki, flash2015, DrCJG, DemonRHK, Damo666. That’s 6/10 from D1 to D2. It encompasses 60% of the vote share on the primary wagon D1 and 75% of the vote share D2. I’m not saying that this entire block of players are scum. But, I find it improbable with the pattern that the same group keeps pushing town lynches. However, I think it is very likely that there are scum in this group. Why? Damo666 has not played a town-aligned game. Sure, a few people may be able to defend him and justify it somehow, but at the end of the day and by his own admission he has no scum reads. (or didn't up until start of N2). He has suspicious D1 behavior that I outlined D1 and D2 couldn’t even give a read to save his life. Either I am wrong and he is just a lazy town player or he is scum who is evading the lynch.

Both the Thd and Peter wagons can be characterized as late day wagons with a massive influx of voters. For thd most of his votes were gained in the final half hour. For Peter most of his votes were gained in the last 10 minutes with it being pushed over in the final minute. Both of these wagons were formed in opposition to the Damo666 wagon or to a lesser extent the DemonRHK wagon. Some of the people who formed the wagons had their reasons, but I find both wagons to be inorganic. They don't feel genuine. This implies scum motivation or direction to them. In the secondary, tertiary and single wagons I am seeing quite a bit of static votes. It implies to me dug in players. That is not really alignment inductive to me. There could be a scum in this group (static read groups) as tunneling can be an effective scum strategy and I am not ruling that out. However, if we operate under the assumption that Damo is scum then we can explain both the thd and peter wagon’s. Let me reiterate, the entire scum team is not in that group, but scum are in that group. How many, I don’t know, but the numbers support a quick and rapid swing vote to pump these two wagons over the lynch line to save Damo666. I firmly believe that Damo and Flash are scum. I am suspecting that we also have scum in DrCJG, Balki, or DemonRHK. At least one of them. We may have a scum somewhere in Ghug, Xorxes, Ezio. But, I am going to concentrate on Flash/Damo if I make it through the night.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I am hoping we lynch one of the low content guys on Day 3. My order is roughly that I'd prefer we lynch DemonRHK, then flash2015, then Ezio.

I have a healthy skepticism of ND, DRCJG, and bo_sox.

I think Bozo, Xorx, damo, rdrivera, and Vecna are likely town.

[worcej]

So, last post for the night - incoming thoughts.

The train on peter felt off near the end. A lot of somewhat suspicious votes occurred and I found it worth digging into the last votes.

IMO, the train of votes started with ghug on page 64. I'll go through each one, starting with his.

1. ghug - Moved randomly it seems, stated it was because peter was getting momentum (probably people probing) and thus put vote there. I didn't find any actual engagement with peter to make this come off him really believing peter was scum. IMO, he decided to sheep Durga based on her posting/pressure around page 61. Result was 4 damo - 3 peter.
2. DrCJG - Wanted to have Yav go up, but moved to peter to consolidate. Ike/Peter were on his radar a post made 1 hour before EOD, so it could've been sheeping as well because peter was never really on the his radar before then. Made it 4 damo - 4 peter
3. Damo - Moved to Peter, no reasoning given. Obviously was self-preservation mode. Made it 5 damo - 5 peter
4. Demon - Didn't think Damo was scum, decided to break the tie and move to peter to make it 5 damo - 6 peter.
5. Balki - No reason presented, but seemed to think a tie was occuring at the time. Post before was questioning the count and almost immediately after (in the same minute) the vote came in. 5 damo - 7 peter. Then moved off of him to Demon, but then back again to prevent the tie created by Vecna. I highlight this because it's important to note and could've been an attempt to save someone.
6. Flash - Last second vote, not much content. Flash's actions since taking over for Jaime seem a little disconnected and is making me look back at Jamie's behavior to assess if it was forced or not.

Of this assortment, I feel ghug, DrCJG, and Flash were the least genuine and least town motivated - analysis further on these guys should be done for D3 voting. Balki was borderline, mostly because of the last second vote moves. Damo and Demon made more sense based off their posting tendencies.

Oh, and FWIW, in the off-chance I die now: I had the Box D1 and got something I am glad scum won't get. I passed the box to someone that I probably shouldn't have, but I will let them reveal on their own when they want.

[Foxcastle]

=====PHASE HAS ENDED, PLEASE HOLD=====

[Foxcastle]

"I'm going into hiding!" Pseudolus says to no one in particular from behind a curtain, "It's just not safe out there anymore!"

He emerges from behind the curtain, dressed in a flowing gown, wearing a long black wig, his cheeks rouged, a perfect smokey eye, and a shade of lipstick that archeologists studying the customs of ancient Rome would later conclude was quite toxic.

"And what better place to hide than in plain sight!" He picks up a mirror and admires himself. "I'm lovely, absolutely lovely! Who'd believe the loveliness of me!? Flowers! I need flowers!"

He grabs some flowers from a vase and poses with them demurely.

"And jewelry! No lady so lovely should be without a little jewelry!" But despite digging through all his drawers, he doesn't seem to own any jewelry.

"I know who will have some I can borrow..."

He slips out of his house just as dawn is breaking and taps on the door just down the street.

"Pssst! Xorxes! Xorxes, wake up!" There's no answer, so he knocks harder, and then starts pounding on the door.

The door creaks open ominously, revealing the body of Xorxes.

XORXES HAS DIED. He was Cuprumius of Rome, the Cop!

[Foxcastle]

=====DAY 3 HAS BEGUN, YOU MAY NOW POST====

[worcej]

Well fuck.

[Durga]

Lol, well at least worcej is town

[bo_sox48]

"In case I die tonight, here are my last instructions for you all: Lynch Ezio then Yavu then ND then DrCJG. I have some ideas about who the last one might be, but I don't want to do all your work for you."

[worcej]

Lol, well at least worcej is town

I mean, I've been pretty hard town vibes.

[Balki Bartokomous]

##vote Ezio

[ND]

##vote ezio

Maybe he already had a scan on him. RIP Xorxes.

[Durga]

I still think he's wrong on ND, idk about the others.

I wonder if you should just tell us who you passed the box to at this point so we have some accountability.

[damo666]

Well that was bleedin' obvious. I guess doc was RB'd.

##vote ezio

[worcej]

##vote ezio

And mostly because I want to speed this up:

##end

[Durga]

Well that was bleedin' obvious. I guess doc was RB'd.

##vote ezio

There is a driver...?

[DemonRHK]

RIP xorx. Did he have a guilty on Szpot / Ezio?

I’ll honor his wishes. ##Vote Ezio

Worc is pretty town now. EoN the night after you pass is the optimal time to reveal, as N3 you’d be able to be passed back to.

[bo_sox48]

##VOTE Ezio

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Ezio, what is your role?

[bo_sox48]

Wait in sorry wtf. We changed EoD timing? Rip sorry guys

Ezio, can we make a deal? You don't NK me and I won't vote for you D3.

He made a lot of posts about all those people but this one stands out to me, plus he's first on that last one.