Mafia 88: Murder at the Meadery - GAME THREAD

[Balki Bartokomous]

Okay. So I've been working on some research. I decided to go back through the history of Mafia games in which a Mafia player was voted out on the very first day. I threw out ones that didn't quite match ours, like 3-faction games (no Judge Dredd game, for instance) or ones where players got eliminated before the end of the first day (or ones where I was simply confused by what was going on). I stopped after I found 10 instances. The results were rather interesting. First chart:

Screenshot (46).png

The most interesting part of the chart for me is the color-coded part. It shows the order in which (according to the tracker) players joined what ended as the leading wagon. So, in the first row (M86), it looks like a Mafia player started that, and then was followed by six townspeople. Overall, in three of the ten cases, it looks like a Mafia player started the wagon.

But! In all three of those cases, a bit of investigation shows that the wagon was actually started by a townsperson who later left the wagon. So, I didn't see any cases in which the wagon was started by a fellow Mafia.

We also see that in all but one case, bussing happened. We also see that, in the vast majority of the cases, the first Mafia player joined the wagon quite early on. Time for a second chart:

Screenshot (47).png

I wanted to see if members of the leading wagon were more or less likely to be Mafia (than if wagons were randomly assigned). I did this by computing the expected number of Mafia on a wagon of a given size, and comparing that with how many Mafia were actually on the wagon. [Details: the "Expected Mafia on wagon" column is computed by:

([#Mafia - 1] / [#Mafia + #Town - 1]) * [SizeOfWagon]

I assume the players being bussed won't vote for themselves.]

To my surprise, more often than not, there were more Mafia players than expected on that wagon! It seems like Mafia really like bussing to blend in. This genuinely surprised me.

What does this say for our game?

With 3 Mafia who could have voted for Will, 16 voters who might have voted for Will, and 7 votes actually on Will, we would expect 1.3 Mafia to be on the wagon. By my analysis above, I think that this is an underestimate. If I had to bet, I would guess that there are most likely 2 bussers on the Will wagon from Day 1. Moreover, I am thinking that the first Mafia joined the wagon around slot 2 or slot 3 (but the player who started the wagon is town!).

In our game, the order in which players joined the Will wagon were:
1. sweetandcool
2. Bonatogether
3. rdrivera2005
4. kingofthepirates
5. worcej
6. BunnyGo
7. ghug

So, I repeat my read that I think sweetandcool is a town player. On the other hand, Bonatogether and rdrivera2005 are sitting in the slots where the first Mafia player usually joins. rdrivera (if you're reading this, I hope you're doing well in real life) hasn't been put under any pressure, as far as I can tell. Maybe some pressure should be put. If it's Bonatogether, I have to think about what is the likelihood that Will and Bona were bussing each other on Day 1 (I could see Will doing that; I don't know enough about Bona to give a guess).

Anyways, that's my contribution to the exercise for the night. I'm not planning on switching my vote right now - Jamie has made a good practical case for voting LoW. But this is where I am headed now.

Jesus.

##unvote

Regardless of your alignment, I like you very much.

[Bonatogether]

What about it?

If you are wondering why I am currently ignoring that analysis, it's because I am sleeping what I perceived as the common consensus that Town would claim the kill.

Consequently my conclusion was invalid.

And because my conclusion was invalid, I return to towning damo.

no, i don't care why you're not using it now. explain your thought process when you made it

Well, I wanted to organize my thoughts around how the bee sting affair could happen. So I found I could not come up with a reason as to why Town would claim the kill. However, I found that Mafia may decide to claim it. Combined with the fact that it was so conveniently awful, it made me think damo was Mafia.

the post in question has a model of a town player who plays to survive by refusing to claim in order to avoid flak, and a model of a scum player who seeks towncredit by claiming it. how does that make sense? would not a scum player seek to mimic the town play, and could not a town player seek to be honest about mistakes?

it just seems to me a pre-fitted conclusion with warped logic

[Balki Bartokomous]

##vote Vecna

Not seeing enough from Vecna today. And Town!Vecna just doesn’t care about being my friend like this Vecna does.

[sweetandcool]

no, i don't care why you're not using it now. explain your thought process when you made it

Well, I wanted to organize my thoughts around how the bee sting affair could happen. So I found I could not come up with a reason as to why Town would claim the kill. However, I found that Mafia may decide to claim it. Combined with the fact that it was so conveniently awful, it made me think damo was Mafia.

the post in question has a model of a town player who plays to survive by refusing to claim in order to avoid flak, and a model of a scum player who seeks towncredit by claiming it. how does that make sense? would not a scum player seek to mimic the town play, and could not a town player seek to be honest about mistakes?

it just seems to me a pre-fitted conclusion with warped logic

Well, you're right.

My logic around the RB was poor on multiple occasions. Which I recanted after hearing more from others.

I was also mad at damo and wanted to scumread him at the time, so my warped logic was biased against him from the start. It's unsurprising I managed to reach the poor conclusion that I did.

I didn't do it because I was scum, I made these mistakes because I was emotional and fog brained. Evidence of this is that I didn't end up campaigning for damo's death. Scum sweetandcool would absolutely be doing so, unless damo happened to be my teammate.

[sweetandcool]

Well, I wanted to organize my thoughts around how the bee sting affair could happen. So I found I could not come up with a reason as to why Town would claim the kill. However, I found that Mafia may decide to claim it. Combined with the fact that it was so conveniently awful, it made me think damo was Mafia.

the post in question has a model of a town player who plays to survive by refusing to claim in order to avoid flak, and a model of a scum player who seeks towncredit by claiming it. how does that make sense? would not a scum player seek to mimic the town play, and could not a town player seek to be honest about mistakes?

it just seems to me a pre-fitted conclusion with warped logic

Well, you're right.

My logic around the RB was poor on multiple occasions. Which I recanted after hearing more from others.

I was also mad at damo and wanted to scumread him at the time, so my warped logic was biased against him from the start. It's unsurprising I managed to reach the poor conclusion that I did.

I didn't do it because I was scum, I made these mistakes because I was emotional and fog brained. Evidence of this is that I didn't end up campaigning for damo's death. Scum sweetandcool would absolutely be doing so, unless damo happened to be my teammate.

Sorry, I said RB but of course I meant the sting.

[bozotheclown]

Your questions imply you’re not thinking, and not trying to understand, just asking to ask.

Ghug says he doesn’t want to vote a new player during D1. You quote it to ask why he’s voting one now. You’re better than this.

Ties, but work I don't like killing new players.

Where in this does he say he does like voting for new players exclusively "during D1"?

It was DAY ONE!! He was discussing the voting at END OF DAY.

Please explain to me how ghug, a player of moderate but not no skill, would. Never vote a new player. How does your computer not compute the context and intent of this statement?

Please explain what you thought he meant at the time and whether you believed he’d never vote for a new player at KiLo. And why you believed that was his intent.

It case it was not clear, I was skeptical of his answer and wanted to know where he would be OK DKing a new player. I am sure there is a mafia term for whatever you did to try to discredit my question before he answered it.

[bozotheclown]

This is a fairly good town slip also.

No it is fucking not.

Is town!bozo usually this useless?


@bozo: has there been some irl changes for you?

I do not accept the basis of your question.

[bozotheclown]

Your questions imply you’re not thinking, and not trying to understand, just asking to ask.

Ghug says he doesn’t want to vote a new player during D1. You quote it to ask why he’s voting one now. You’re better than this.

Ties, but work I don't like killing new players.

Where in this does he say he does like voting for new players exclusively "during D1"?

I said I don't like killing new players.

I didn't say I won't vote for new players.

Those are two key differences. Other factors gain more weight as the game progresses.

You said you were just causing ties, though, did you think your votes might end of DKing Bonatogether or damo?

[bozotheclown]

No it is fucking not.

Is town!bozo usually this useless?


@bozo: has there been some irl changes for you?

I wouldn’t call him worthless, just tunneling randomly

ghug has accused me of doing what I would consider the opposite of tunneling.

[bozotheclown]

scum

fake!

you will see your error soon

Bonatogether was apparently scum reading Just after his first post, and was confident Just was mafia at EOD. That is not very consistent with not voting for Just for 47 hours of D1. I don't think everyone should assume Bonatogether is town.

The GF is only useful if he gets cop scanned, Bonatogether could have been trying to make that happen.

the first post was a joke, the second post is not a scumread (and is from SoD1??), and the third post is deep-seated eod conviction

When did you start sum reading him then?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Read my posts! I want attention.

[sweetandcool]

Read my posts! I want attention.

I agree with you about Vecna. Otherwise, not sure what you are expecting a response for.

[Lord of Words]

Sorry this took a bit to type; between work and some personal stuff I had a bit more than planned this week. Let just say that off the bat.

To clear the air and provide some good faith, I’ll state that I’m Vanilla Town. I don’t see much risk it disclosing this, since scum will have other more valuable to go after given the DI elimination of Will, which has probably set back their play somewhat. Killing me would also disclose that I was town and eliminate any hope of using my continued survival after this disclosure as a way to misdirect Town and divert attention from themselves. More importantly I don’t want Town to waste a vote on me that could be conceivably used for scum, giving the scum a double kill.

I also reread this thread three times because I wanted to get feel for players and their posting attitudes since haven’t played here before making any accusations, especially since unfounded and blind accusations cost Town time.

Fortunately, Will generated a reads list on D1 which probably speaks to his mindset as the Mafia Foreman.

Staring with his first category of Town reads who wouldn’t flip today, there is Spartaculous, myself, Jamie, and Sweet. I will stress that Will apparently put this category as unimpeachable and therefore this category deserves the most scruntiny.

Spartaculous’s style of play of reminds me a lot about myself when I started playing Mafia and occasionally when I play on a new forum or Discord, so I feel that is genuine behavior. He seems unsure of reads and play at times, which is what I’d expect. However, I’ve been in games where new players made devastating scum players due to slack being cut for them, but I’m willing to honor the tradition here for now. I’m not seriously looking at him currently, though.

Moving on me, I’m new here, but I’m not new to Mafia in general, which I admitted earlier. That would’ve be quite easy to coast on, yet I admitted that in the spirit of sportsmanship since Spartaculous deserved a reprieve and there was no need to accommodate to new players. I have also disclosed my role and alignment, though I can admit there was some cause for suspicion before. I promise far more engagement going forward now that I have an idea of the players.

Jamiet99uk I have been wavering on, but the early pushing of players most likely to be town like Bonatogether and Bozoclown (see below) along with myself strike me as possible deflection, though I can see his reasons, superficially, for suspecting me. I must stress that anyone Will placed in this category of the next is inherently due some consideration.

As a nice segue, Jamiet99uk interestingly managed to convince Sweetandcool to vote against me, who also happens to be a final player on this list. The business with Bonatogether, unless I’m misunderstanding the subtext, made more suspicious and Bona is strongly Town for me, considering that Will had him pegged as scum. Sweet is definitely on my watch list as well.

Moving onto the next possibly most concerning category, there are the Town leans, which consists of Ghug, Kingofthepirates, and Foodcoats. These players should be regarded with suspicion because odds are good that Will may have placed at least one scum player in this category to avoid suspicion falling on them if he was exposed later in the game.

Ghug’s late on Will could be seen as cutting losses ahead of him flipping, but the general consensus seems to be Ghug normally votes late, so I’m not drilling hard on that now, especially in light of his roleblock claim.

Kingofthepirates I don’t know well from I’ve read, but I’m assuming he is Town purely due to his D1 vote. Bunny and Sweet voting him makes me more confident he is Town and that something is up with Sweet and possibly Bunny as well.

Foodcoats is the player I’m suspicious of because he was advocating for Will until the last minute at the end of Day 1. Other than that, I don’t have too much on him at the moment.

We’re on Will’s Null reads now. Being honest, I’m haven’t seen too much concerning material so far among this group. But to be thorough, we’ll review the largest category containing DrFidelis, Worcej, Balki Bartokomous, Rdrivera2005, and Damo666.

DrFidelis, I’m having some trouble reading at the moment, so I’m really going to asking them dirct questions for the remainder of the today to home in on them.

Worcej, I peg as Town mostly based on his timing during the vote on Will, who he voted for.

Balki Bartokomous’s D1 voting was a bit random, but it was D1, though his D2 voting has been stronger. Personally, he reads as Townside of null.

Rdrivera2005 strikes me as Town since there seemed to be agreement he wasn’t bussing Will, if I’m interpreting correctly.

Damo666 I feel alright about, given his D1 vote and overall posting pattern. He genuinely seems like he is trying solve, but I’ll admit in it is early to clear him.

Will’s scum read are the ones I’m most trusting of, though Bunny I’m suspicious of, even though they placed a critical vote on Will during D1.

[Lord of Words]

I'll generate further reads on the remaining three players, but I feel confident enough in Vecna, Bozo, and Bunny to put that off for the morning.

[bozotheclown]

Okay. So I've been working on some research. I decided to go back through the history of Mafia games in which a Mafia player was voted out on the very first day. I threw out ones that didn't quite match ours, like 3-faction games (no Judge Dredd game, for instance) or ones where players got eliminated before the end of the first day (or ones where I was simply confused by what was going on). I stopped after I found 10 instances. The results were rather interesting. First chart:

Screenshot (46).png

The most interesting part of the chart for me is the color-coded part. It shows the order in which (according to the tracker) players joined what ended as the leading wagon. So, in the first row (M86), it looks like a Mafia player started that, and then was followed by six townspeople. Overall, in three of the ten cases, it looks like a Mafia player started the wagon.

But! In all three of those cases, a bit of investigation shows that the wagon was actually started by a townsperson who later left the wagon. So, I didn't see any cases in which the wagon was started by a fellow Mafia.

We also see that in all but one case, bussing happened. We also see that, in the vast majority of the cases, the first Mafia player joined the wagon quite early on. Time for a second chart:

Screenshot (47).png

I wanted to see if members of the leading wagon were more or less likely to be Mafia (than if wagons were randomly assigned). I did this by computing the expected number of Mafia on a wagon of a given size, and comparing that with how many Mafia were actually on the wagon. [Details: the "Expected Mafia on wagon" column is computed by:

([#Mafia - 1] / [#Mafia + #Town - 1]) * [SizeOfWagon]

I assume the players being bussed won't vote for themselves.]

To my surprise, more often than not, there were more Mafia players than expected on that wagon! It seems like Mafia really like bussing to blend in. This genuinely surprised me.

What does this say for our game?

With 3 Mafia who could have voted for Will, 16 voters who might have voted for Will, and 7 votes actually on Will, we would expect 1.3 Mafia to be on the wagon. By my analysis above, I think that this is an underestimate. If I had to bet, I would guess that there are most likely 2 bussers on the Will wagon from Day 1. Moreover, I am thinking that the first Mafia joined the wagon around slot 2 or slot 3 (but the player who started the wagon is town!).

In our game, the order in which players joined the Will wagon were:
1. sweetandcool
2. Bonatogether
3. rdrivera2005
4. kingofthepirates
5. worcej
6. BunnyGo
7. ghug

So, I repeat my read that I think sweetandcool is a town player. On the other hand, Bonatogether and rdrivera2005 are sitting in the slots where the first Mafia player usually joins. rdrivera (if you're reading this, I hope you're doing well in real life) hasn't been put under any pressure, as far as I can tell. Maybe some pressure should be put. If it's Bonatogether, I have to think about what is the likelihood that Will and Bona were bussing each other on Day 1 (I could see Will doing that; I don't know enough about Bona to give a guess).

Anyways, that's my contribution to the exercise for the night. I'm not planning on switching my vote right now - Jamie has made a good practical case for voting LoW. But this is where I am headed now.

This could be a replay of M84, in which case the remaining mafia would be sweetandcool, Bonatogether, and BunnyGo.

It must have taken a lot of work to put that together, if you did that as mafia I would be even more impressed.

[sweetandcool]

I'll generate further reads on the remaining three players, but I feel confident enough in Vecna, Bozo, and Bunny to put that off for the morning.

That's an awful lot of town reads.

Could you tell me more about your opinion on Food and damo's connection?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Read my posts! I want attention.

I agree with you about Vecna. Otherwise, not sure what you are expecting a response for.

How about the thing about Damo actually looking fairly townish for targeting Foodcoats, given there is little sign in Foodcoats’ ISO that he is beekeeper and foodcoats was a fairly likely daykill target at that point?

[Lord of Words]

I'll generate further reads on the remaining three players, but I feel confident enough in Vecna, Bozo, and Bunny to put that off for the morning.

That's an awful lot of town reads.

Could you tell me more about your opinion on Food and damo's connection?

By definition, there are going to a lot more town reads than scum reads.

For clarity, my scum reads are Jamie, Food, and Bunny, such as they are.

[sweetandcool]

I'll generate further reads on the remaining three players, but I feel confident enough in Vecna, Bozo, and Bunny to put that off for the morning.

That's an awful lot of town reads.

Could you tell me more about your opinion on Food and damo's connection?

By definition, there are going to a lot more town reads than scum reads.

For clarity, my scum reads are Jamie, Food, and Bunny, such as they are.

Food is dead.

[sweetandcool]

Read my posts! I want attention.

I agree with you about Vecna. Otherwise, not sure what you are expecting a response for.

How about the thing about Damo actually looking fairly townish for targeting Foodcoats, given there is little sign in Foodcoats’ ISO that he is beekeeper and foodcoats was a fairly likely daykill target at that point?

Yes, I have been working with damo. I do think they are likely Town. It seems nobody is really scum reading him considering the current vote.