Mafia 88: Murder at the Meadery - GAME THREAD

[Bonatogether]

Cheers to Honey and good fortune

scum

Oh as per official newb shield Spartaculous will not receive my vote until day 3 or later. Lord of Words maybe bc hes played elsewhere

fake!

Will is obvtown

you will see your error soon

Bonatogether was apparently scum reading Just after his first post, and was confident Just was mafia at EOD. That is not very consistent with not voting for Just for 47 hours of D1. I don't think everyone should assume Bonatogether is town.

The GF is only useful if he gets cop scanned, Bonatogether could have been trying to make that happen.

the first post was a joke, the second post is not a scumread (and is from SoD1??), and the third post is deep-seated eod conviction

[Bonatogether]

Just checking, but we can link screenshots here, yes?

It would save me the trouble of linking Will's read list here and speed things up for me. I've reread this thread three times now and I'm not really trying to hunt for it on mobile.

you can imagepost

[Bonatogether]

Seriously, here is a player who has told us that he is an experienced Mafia player on other forums.

He has not indicated that he has any problems logging in or posting.

Most of his posts, it remains, are about promising to post in the future, which he continues to avoid doing.

VOTE HIM PLEASE

With respect, if I was scum, life happens, but wouldn't it be weird for me to miss a vote, especially one where my alleged teammate was on the chopping block? And conspicuously being absent wouldn't accrue to my benefit either.

it's extremely difficult to read into absences, imo, because there's always the random bs factor, so i wouldn't think it makes any sense to make a read based off of not being present

[Bonatogether]

i'm going to probably miss EoD/be inactive tomorrow

will make a vote around EoD

[Bonatogether]

can't guarantee that i'll have read more

[worcej]

can't guarantee that i'll have read more

Is this an anchor? Someone tell me.

[kingofthepirates]

With respect, if I was scum, life happens, but wouldn't it be weird for me to miss a vote, especially one where my alleged teammate was on the chopping block? And conspicuously being absent wouldn't accrue to my benefit either.

Lord, absences happen, and I get that, there could be any number of reasons involved. I hope you’re doing ok, whatever that may mean to you. I politely request you share your read list with us, even if incomplete (you can always finish it later). While not scummy, your posts so far feel to lack substance. You also didn’t vote yesterday. Such inaction and energy towards solving make me both uncomfortable to town you in the first place, and in my opinion, inactive town can very much be a liability, especially when key votes are needed to tiebreak or tip the scales. I’m very interested in what your reads list will add to this discussion :3.

Sorry if anything above came out as accusatory, harsh, or sarcastic, I mean it with utmost respect and seriousness.

[ghug]

Just checking, but we can link screenshots here, yes?

It would save me the trouble of linking Will's read list here and speed things up for me. I've reread this thread three times now and I'm not really trying to hunt for it on mobile.

You can. You can also quote posts though. I'd suggest that, because it can be read inline and there's a link too.

[ghug]

i'm going to probably miss EoD/be inactive tomorrow

will make a vote around EoD

If Bona were scum scum, life happens, but wouldn't it be weird for him to miss a vote, especially one where his alleged teammate were on the chopping block? And conspicuously being absent wouldn't accrue to his benefit either.

[ghug]

can't guarantee that i'll have read more

Is this an anchor? Someone tell me.

Yes but everyone anchors except me.

[sweetandcool]

i'm going to probably miss EoD/be inactive tomorrow

will make a vote around EoD

If Bona were scum scum, life happens, but wouldn't it be weird for him to miss a vote, especially one where his alleged teammate were on the chopping block? And conspicuously being absent wouldn't accrue to his benefit either.

Hmmm, what exactly are you trying to imply? I don't quite grasp what you are saying.

[Hamilton Brian]

I feel like this is the first game where I’ve seen the use of “anchor.” What is that?

Damo, you have to get off of me. I mean, really, pull back the hounds. Unless you’re scum.

Clearly I haven’t spent enough time reading.
Letting all things be equal, Bunny appears most town.
Enough analysis makes me think we solve this by Day 3 or 4.
Reflect on what Will published; the answers have to be there.
Keep on truckin’, y’all.

Sweet, if I met you walking down through our town, I’d high five you and say, “Got past D1, man!”

[Hamilton Brian]

How many mafia are there? I thought there were only three but I’m reading these posts and it’s making out like there’s four?

[Hamilton Brian]

Gak! I’m an effung dummy; just realized Will was the GF.

I still think he’s clued us in to solving with his reads list.

[Lord of Words]

Gak! I’m an effung dummy; just realized Will was the GF.

I still think he’s clued us in to solving with his reads list.

I feel the same way and am finished my reads list.

Is there a character or word limit on posts here?

[Bonatogether]

Gak! I’m an effung dummy; just realized Will was the GF.

I still think he’s clued us in to solving with his reads list.

I feel the same way and am finished my reads list.

Is there a character or word limit on posts here?

nope

[Spartaculous]

Okay. So I've been working on some research. I decided to go back through the history of Mafia games in which a Mafia player was voted out on the very first day. I threw out ones that didn't quite match ours, like 3-faction games (no Judge Dredd game, for instance) or ones where players got eliminated before the end of the first day (or ones where I was simply confused by what was going on). I stopped after I found 10 instances. The results were rather interesting. First chart:

The most interesting part of the chart for me is the color-coded part. It shows the order in which (according to the tracker) players joined what ended as the leading wagon. So, in the first row (M86), it looks like a Mafia player started that, and then was followed by six townspeople. Overall, in three of the ten cases, it looks like a Mafia player started the wagon.

But! In all three of those cases, a bit of investigation shows that the wagon was actually started by a townsperson who later left the wagon. So, I didn't see any cases in which the wagon was started by a fellow Mafia.

We also see that in all but one case, bussing happened. We also see that, in the vast majority of the cases, the first Mafia player joined the wagon quite early on. Time for a second chart:

I wanted to see if members of the leading wagon were more or less likely to be Mafia (than if wagons were randomly assigned). I did this by computing the expected number of Mafia on a wagon of a given size, and comparing that with how many Mafia were actually on the wagon. [Details: the "Expected Mafia on wagon" column is computed by:

([#Mafia - 1] / [#Mafia + #Town - 1]) * [SizeOfWagon]

I assume the players being bussed won't vote for themselves.]

To my surprise, more often than not, there were more Mafia players than expected on that wagon! It seems like Mafia really like bussing to blend in. This genuinely surprised me.

What does this say for our game?

With 3 Mafia who could have voted for Will, 16 voters who might have voted for Will, and 7 votes actually on Will, we would expect 1.3 Mafia to be on the wagon. By my analysis above, I think that this is an underestimate. If I had to bet, I would guess that there are most likely 2 bussers on the Will wagon from Day 1. Moreover, I am thinking that the first Mafia joined the wagon around slot 2 or slot 3 (but the player who started the wagon is town!).

In our game, the order in which players joined the Will wagon were:
1. sweetandcool
2. Bonatogether
3. rdrivera2005
4. kingofthepirates
5. worcej
6. BunnyGo
7. ghug

So, I repeat my read that I think sweetandcool is a town player. On the other hand, Bonatogether and rdrivera2005 are sitting in the slots where the first Mafia player usually joins. rdrivera (if you're reading this, I hope you're doing well in real life) hasn't been put under any pressure, as far as I can tell. Maybe some pressure should be put. If it's Bonatogether, I have to think about what is the likelihood that Will and Bona were bussing each other on Day 1 (I could see Will doing that; I don't know enough about Bona to give a guess).

Anyways, that's my contribution to the exercise for the night. I'm not planning on switching my vote right now - Jamie has made a good practical case for voting LoW. But this is where I am headed now.

[sweetandcool]

can you explain this post

What about it?

If you are wondering why I am currently ignoring that analysis, it's because I am sleeping what I perceived as the common consensus that Town would claim the kill.

Consequently my conclusion was invalid.

And because my conclusion was invalid, I return to towning damo.

no, i don't care why you're not using it now. explain your thought process when you made it

Well, I wanted to organize my thoughts around how the bee sting affair could happen. So I found I could not come up with a reason as to why Town would claim the kill. However, I found that Mafia may decide to claim it. Combined with the fact that it was so conveniently awful, it made me think damo was Mafia.

[sweetandcool]

Good work Sparta. I actually was thinking recently about how I had forgotten about rdr.

[ghug]

Okay. So I've been working on some research. I decided to go back through the history of Mafia games in which a Mafia player was voted out on the very first day. I threw out ones that didn't quite match ours, like 3-faction games (no Judge Dredd game, for instance) or ones where players got eliminated before the end of the first day (or ones where I was simply confused by what was going on). I stopped after I found 10 instances. The results were rather interesting. First chart:

Screenshot (46).png

The most interesting part of the chart for me is the color-coded part. It shows the order in which (according to the tracker) players joined what ended as the leading wagon. So, in the first row (M86), it looks like a Mafia player started that, and then was followed by six townspeople. Overall, in three of the ten cases, it looks like a Mafia player started the wagon.

But! In all three of those cases, a bit of investigation shows that the wagon was actually started by a townsperson who later left the wagon. So, I didn't see any cases in which the wagon was started by a fellow Mafia.

We also see that in all but one case, bussing happened. We also see that, in the vast majority of the cases, the first Mafia player joined the wagon quite early on. Time for a second chart:

Screenshot (47).png

I wanted to see if members of the leading wagon were more or less likely to be Mafia (than if wagons were randomly assigned). I did this by computing the expected number of Mafia on a wagon of a given size, and comparing that with how many Mafia were actually on the wagon. [Details: the "Expected Mafia on wagon" column is computed by:

([#Mafia - 1] / [#Mafia + #Town - 1]) * [SizeOfWagon]

I assume the players being bussed won't vote for themselves.]

To my surprise, more often than not, there were more Mafia players than expected on that wagon! It seems like Mafia really like bussing to blend in. This genuinely surprised me.

What does this say for our game?

With 3 Mafia who could have voted for Will, 16 voters who might have voted for Will, and 7 votes actually on Will, we would expect 1.3 Mafia to be on the wagon. By my analysis above, I think that this is an underestimate. If I had to bet, I would guess that there are most likely 2 bussers on the Will wagon from Day 1. Moreover, I am thinking that the first Mafia joined the wagon around slot 2 or slot 3 (but the player who started the wagon is town!).

In our game, the order in which players joined the Will wagon were:
1. sweetandcool
2. Bonatogether
3. rdrivera2005
4. kingofthepirates
5. worcej
6. BunnyGo
7. ghug

So, I repeat my read that I think sweetandcool is a town player. On the other hand, Bonatogether and rdrivera2005 are sitting in the slots where the first Mafia player usually joins. rdrivera (if you're reading this, I hope you're doing well in real life) hasn't been put under any pressure, as far as I can tell. Maybe some pressure should be put. If it's Bonatogether, I have to think about what is the likelihood that Will and Bona were bussing each other on Day 1 (I could see Will doing that; I don't know enough about Bona to give a guess).

Anyways, that's my contribution to the exercise for the night. I'm not planning on switching my vote right now - Jamie has made a good practical case for voting LoW. But this is where I am headed now.

I haven't read this post but I think I like this Sparta guy.