Mafia XXXIV Game Thread - Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

[thamrick]

@Demon - This list thing is bullshit I used to post very good reads when I was scum. And reads D1 are usually a bunch of null reads and "gut feelings".

That's fair. So it's D2. 4 hours prior to EoD2. Do you plan on posting reads today? I don't recall you posting any really except for maybe in the vote analysis but that was more "these are the people we should look into"

[Tom Bombadil]

@tham: Are you suspicious of rdrivera?

[brainbomb]

To say I posted no reads is kinda bullshit. My would shoot list, my scumreads, I absolutely was posting observations about the game throughout the night

[thamrick]

@tham: Are you suspicious of rdrivera?

Not strongly. I don't have a good reason to see him as either town or scum. He started out as a strong townread for me, but I'm less sure about him lately.

[Tom Bombadil]

How does his vote D1 impact your read of him?

[brainbomb]

This is kinda strange.

yavuzovic
Day-1 26:53
page 8 @thamrick, I voted ND but it was temporarily until I have a scumread. He was just randomly selected player, you might be too.
@DemonRHK, could you tell why did you attach me as scumread. I just ignored question (yeah, it's actually enough reason to scumread - but it was based on my laziness). Was that your reason to scumread me?

yavuzovic
Day-1 26:53
page 8 @rdrivera save us.

Why? Rivera wasnt even talking at this point.

[brainbomb]

Yavuz Day 1

Votes ND says he fears NDs wrath
Votes me says he knows im scum
Unvotes me

yavuzovic
Day-1 13:23
page 13
I will
%%unvote
Because I don't want early lynch for brainbomb. He's still suspect - I would revote him if I can't find anyone to vote until EoD.

yavuzovic
Day-1 05:03
page 18 %%vote Balki Bartokomous
I have no reason but there's quite strong intuition in my mind about he is scum. If I had better choice I would not trust my intuitions, however I haven't sucmread anyone so far, I must vote somebody until EoD and I want to vote to the person who I expect he's scum.

DemonRHK
Day-1 00:02
page 27 Jamie is a much better lynch. I assume you tie you swing is still policy?

yavuzovic
Day-1 00:02
page 27 No way
#%vote ND

brainbomb
Day-1 00:02
page 27 Ok

yavuzovic
Day-1 00:01
page 27 Ah 6-6 now!

brainbomb
Day-1 00:01
page 27 Yavuz just tied it

EOD final 3

yavuzovic
Day-1 00:01
page 28 #vote Jamiet99uk

VashtaNeurotic
Day-1 00:01
page 28 #vote Jamie

Balki Bartokomous
Day-1 00:01
page 28 #vote Jamiet

That's better.

brainbomb
Day-1 00:01
page 28 Vote JAMIE f9r gods sakes


VashtaNeurotic
Night-1 24:00
page 28 He says after 3 jamie votes....

yavuzovic
Night-1 24:00
page 28 I just voted to break draw.

Lets change it up.

##vote yavuz

[Foxcastle]

Was there an actual case on me, Brainbomb? I missed it, if so.

There will be fox. I know exactly what you are doing. But itll be tomorrow. Im devoting my energy today to getting rid of my dear friend. Its unfortunate. He and I are good friends and colleagues. Its a game. I think hes a smart fella, but ive seen his scum game and his town. This aint his town meta.

I have been very patient, Brainbomb, and it is now tomorrow. I'm not sure I can take the suspense much longer...

[thamrick]

How does his vote D1 impact your read of him?

I'm not sure. He hadn't posted reads of anyone at that point so it's hard to say why he got on what wagon he did. His justification for voting Jamiet was that he didn't like the Balki wagon and between ND and Jamiet he chose Jamiet. Jamiet was on Balki at that point so maybe that's why he didn't like the Balki wagon. I don't know.

At the time he switched, it put the vote 6 ND, 5 Balki, 4 Jamiet. So it's hard to say he knew Jamiet was gonna swing and voted for him for towncred. I see it possible he thought Jamiet was scummy and voted for him and it worked out. I also see it possible he knew Jamiet was scum and voted for him for cred down the road.

Basically, I don't think it affects my read at all. Slight shift in the town direction if anything.

[thamrick]

Lets change it up.

@@vote yavuz

You posted a lot of quotes. It was clear all D1 that Yav was all over the place, yet D1 you were sure he was town. What made you sure D1 that he was townclear?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Ezio

I don't understand why Ezio isn't posting or playing. I really don't understand it as either alignment. I mean...I suppose he could be scared scum, but it's not like he's really received any pressure. I just don't know what to make of it.

@Ezio, what's up?

Bozotheclown

I read Bozo's ISO too. It's sparse, but there is a lot more engagement. I like this post:

I will assume brainbomb is not really the gunsmith unless he gives a good reason for claiming it. I just want to point out to the new and almost new players that brainbomb is known for fake PR claims, so there is no reason to counterclaim gunsmith.

A sensible thing to say, and the kind of thing that comes from a town perspective who has played with Brainbomb before, thinks Brainbomb is likely town, and doesn't want to give up a PR.

I like this defense of DemonRHK on page 20:

"DemonRHK switching off of yavuzovic leaves himself in first with three votes. DemonRHK seems to be trying to solve the game, so I do not think he should be the first lynch. No one from the group with two votes stands out to me as particularly suspicious. I found reedeer1 early posts suspicious, first claiming a list of reads, then presenting a list with no reasoning, then voting with minimal explanation. I am going to put my vote on reedeer1 for now.

[][]VOTE reedeer1"

I think DemonRHK is town for similar reasons. Note that DemonRHK had heat on him at this point, whereas reedeer really didn't. This was not the path of least resistance if Bozo is scum.

On the other hand, very little commitment to reedeer vote, and maintaining a lot of flexibility to move his vote if Scum Bozo wants to do that strategically. No conviction.

On Page 21 we see Bozo use that vote flexibility:

"I have to leave and I likely won't be back for EOD, so I am changing my vote to ND. I do not like his vote for brain at this point, and his analysis has not been what I am used to seeing from him as town.

[][]VOTE ND"

There is a potential Scum Bozo here, certainly. He puts a vote on the leading ND to protect Jamiet. But when he cast this vote, Jamiet only had 1 vote (mine). The leading wagons were DemonRHK, Ezio, and Brainbomb. So this move to ND is pretty Null until we know some more alignments.

* * *

I'm leaning slight town on Bozo, but mostly incomplete. I don't think we can draw much from his vote on ND with the alignments we know. I see a few townie things in his ISO (e.g., defense of DemonRHK, protection of GS), but not much engagement or conviction, and leaving himself plenty of flexibility, which could be because he is scum.

[MeanLaQueefa]

So demon, I posted a large list of reads earlier today, why did you only consider N1 for a reads list?

Brain, give me a rundown on your case on why vash isn't scum please.

[Balki Bartokomous]

IMPORTANT PLEASE READ:

We're lynching from the following pool today:

Ezio
Tom
Vash
Bozotheclown
CaptainMeme

I don't really like our list. I feel constrained.

Ezio is MIA, but he's so MIA that it's NAI.

One of these days I will do a Tom ISO, but in just reading his posts as they come, I have read nothing that pushes my in the Scum Tom direction. And I find the river current pushing in his direction puzzling.

Vash? He hasn't put down enough on the page to get a read on him, but that's him as either alignment. I hope we can find a higher percentage flip than that.

Bozo: I'm slight Town on him for the reasons above.

CaptainMeme: my first choice right now based on Darg's behavior. But then Darg was coming around a bit towards the end of his ISO, and I just like playing with CaptainMeme once he stops lurking and starts solving. (Hopefully that is soon).

Mostly, I'd like people to go to Page 20 and Page 25, and read these MLQ quote in context again, considering what we know now:

Page 20 (3.5 hours before EOD):

[Balki] is now pushing Jamie on trivial crap again with the same loose reasoning. That whole argument felt like Balki trying to find an easy place to put his vote that wouldn't seem out of place, so why not push the guy people have described as "acting less belligerent than usual," get into a dumb argument and cast an emotional vote that people can easily understand. Thing is, he seems too smart to have this bad of arguments and pushes.

Page 25 (30 minutes before EOD):

You [Balki] push jamie, when everyone, even you, can agree he isn't a good lynch today. He's done nothing but be an idiot, pushing yav a bit for being confused, and then pushing lurkers. Dumb does not equal scum. He is an easy vote to push, but not a good one in the slightest.

If people I respect read those quotes in context and tell me MLQ is Town, I'll let this wagon fizzle and choose from the Fifty Shades of Grey above.

[Foxcastle]

Balki, did you see my reasoning for why I think MLQ is town?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Balki, did you see my reasoning for why I think MLQ is town?

I don't know. It hasn't drawn my focused attention. Can you link, quote, or paraphrase?

Three bullet points might be best.

Also, contend with the quotes I reference above. Those quotes are my sticking point. I think she has acted pretty Town for 2 days now. Like, I think she's talented scum if she's scum. But I think, based on her experience, she may have the chops to be talented scum.

[Foxcastle]

@Balki

I'm town reading Mean. In her P52 summary of everything, she says a couple things that I don't think scum coming off a night in the Mafia QT would say.

In reading ND, she says "He scum read snowy throughout the game, and that’s an odd thing to do if you’re planning on killing him at night when you’re the only person who has voted for him"

In reading Rjm, "He also scumread snowy in his reads at the end of night, which is a really odd thing to do if he knew he was going to die."

Scum don't go into the Mafia QT knowing who they will kill. If Mean were scum, she would have just spent 24 hours in the Mafia QT and would know that even if there's general consensus, scum don't go in knowing how the discussion will come out. So I see those as town slips, defaulting to how she understands the game is usually played face-to-face because she didn't go to the Mafia QT.

[brainbomb]

9 people voted Jamie.

Show of hands who thinks all 9 were town?

[MeanLaQueefa]

Also fox, not to diminish the point about me being town, I still think my point about rjm still stands. ND scumread snowy before he could have talked to his teammates and maybe just didn't feel like he should go back on it, but rjm posted his reads just before the end of night, with 7 minutes until dawn, when he would for sure know who was going to die. Unless the mafia usually decide at the very end of night who they kill.

[Foxcastle]

A fine point, Mean. He could have been coached, but I think it's clear I already/still think Rjm is scum, so I won't belabor that interpretation of it.

[bozotheclown]

@Demon: Here are thoughts on D1 EOD that you requested. Sorry for the delay.

First, I found a fourth discrepancy in the bot report for D1 EOD: the bot switched the votes by Balki and ND at 5 minutes before EOD.

If I have everything correct, here are the actual vote totals for Jamie, ND, and Balki starting where they deviated from the bot with Jamie’s vote for Balki that was missed by the bot:
Jamie votes for Balki (10 min.): ND 5, Balki 5, Jamie 3
ND votes for Jamie (7 min.): ND 5, Balki 5, Jamie 4
Balki switches from Jamie to ND (5 min.): ND 6, Balki 5, Jamie 3
rdrivera votes for Jamie (5 min.): ND 6, Balki 5, Jamie 4
reedeer votes for Jamie (3 min.): ND 6, Balki 5, Jamie 5
snowy switches from ND to Jamie (2 min.): Jamie 6, ND 5, Balki 5
yavuzovic switches from Balki to ND (2 min.): Jamie 6, ND 6, Balki 4
yavuzovic switches from ND to Jamie (1 min.): Jamie 7, ND 5, Balki 4
Vashta switches from Balki to Jamie (1 min.): Jamie 8, ND 5, Balki 3
Balki switches from ND to Jamie (1 min.): Jamie 9, ND 4, Balki 3

ND: Vote for Jamie looks good, but he still had time switch to Balki for self preservation. After yavuzovic moved off Balki, ND’s options would have been limited as scum. Jamie’s vote for Balki helped ND.

Balki: Switch from Jamie to ND looks like self preservation. Switched back to Jamie late to end on scum wagon, but he started the Jamie wagon.

rdrivera: Vote for Jamie helped get the momentum going on Jamie, but Jamie was still 3 votes behind ND at the time of the vote, so he could have been trying to end on a scum wagon.

reedeer: Similar to rdrivera.

yavuzovic: He tied the vote but seemed to not realize it until after his vote, then changed his vote to untie it. However, he stated that his only goal was to prevent a tie, indicating he had no opinion on the three top wagons.

Vashta: Kept vote on Balki over ND and Jamie, but moved to the scum wagon after the vote was decided.

Summary:
ND does not come out looking as cleared compared to the bot report, but he still looks OK. Balki looks a little better compared to the bot report, as he was tied with ND and ahead of Jamie when he switched his vote to ND. yavuzovic looks slightly suspicious for changing he vote at a critical time despite indicating he had no preference between the three top wagons. rdrivera and reedeer look rather good, although it is still possible either one could have been bussing Jamie. Vashta moving to Jamie late looks a little suspicious, but not too much information without knowing the alignment of ND and Balki. brainbomb looks good for getting the Jamie wagon going, bus bussing can’t be completely ruled out. Slight connections between the following combinations: ND/Vashta, yavuzovic/Balki, and rdrivera/reedeer, if one of the pair was revealed as scum, the other would look more suspicious.