MAfIA 84 - A VERY TENDER THANKSGIVING GAME THREAD

[Bonatogether]

day 1 vca

major wagon = 3 votes or more at once, plus whatever else i care to talk about

i wasn't around for early early game but it's ok

the first major wagon is NDtogether, with ghug, ND, and jamie. ghug is a hater, so nothing really to read into that. ND self-voted for unknown reasons, and jamie followed that up because apparently seriously self-voting early in d1 is like wacky. this wagon technically dissipates when ND subs out, but i feel like it's important to note that from my understanding of the thread, people were not big fans of ND. I don't think anyone scumread him per se at this point, but he's not one of the bubbly and friendly personalities that we know and love around here.

no kill gets 3 votes but it's irrelevant and just people babooning so idc. no one on this (temask, worcej, ND) meant to stay here, or was indeed actively subbing out.

i sub in, and immediately pick up 3 votes. only one of these is from the ND wagon, which suggests that, given the unseriousness of the wagon on ND, the votes were largely focused on myself. the votes are, in order, from sweet (who claims that his scumread of ND is the driving factor, despite never voting for him and only a mild setup), ghug (i believe an unserious vote), and macca (who claims to scumread ND on first read, but i'm now in that slot).

macca picked up two votes for her vote almost immediately from damo and from heartthrob for her justification of her vote on me. i believe at least heartthrob has changed his mind on this but at the time, this is what happened. macca drops her vote from me, supposedly in response to me appealing to famous former mafia player bob, but the timing on this looks like it's a response to vote pressure. she also changes her vote several times to unvote and then to no-kill. this sequence is important because it sets the ball rolling for macca's wagon, which temasak jumps on to make it major. jamie also expresses interest in the wagon at this point. macca never reappears after this until n1

chaqa votes for me initially as a #swingthesubs, but this read apparently later solidified. unclear when or why.

sweet and i argue for a while, because i disliked his explanation of voting for ND and not me, when it would seem that we're the same. some people disagreed with me on this but i am town and he was scum so i won.

temasek, worcej, and ghug all notice sweet's argument and take issue with different parts. temasek later votes macca (he is the only sweet voter to change votes), but ghug and worcej stay on until the end.

i briefly drop off from being a major wagon but return when will has this post, which is kind of crazy: https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=365631#p365631
have i ever played with this guy? (i think yes but i got killed d1). does this guy believe nd is a paragon of mafia playing? what is even going on in this post. also the quote "Unless any new information or counterclaims come out" is kind of crazy. no one has claimed anything, and there is no information. this is a nothing sentence, which, if taken at face value, would mean this man is totally ride or die on the vote he has found, based on "ND's antics." (side note: what is threat level control).

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=365746#p365746
apparently not LOL. i do not understand this guy.

i think EoD really begins at T-0:45, when the vote is 3 macca/3 will/3 sweet/2 bona/5 votes either not placed or on minor wagons
macca voters: temasek, damo, heartthrob. these 3 either don't move, aren't active, or only flip when it's too late to change the outcome. zero momentum wagon.
will voters: bunny, rdr, sweet. primarily the anti-sweet counterwagon.
sweet voters: worcej, ghug, bona. all voting for sweet in response to sweet's voting justification footwork with me and ND. none of these votes move, despite being around relatively close to EoD.
bona voters: chaqa (inactive) and will (late to the party on voting me). this former lead wagon is in the final stages of disintegration.

by T-0:26, the vote is 4 macca/4 will/4 sweet/3 vanity wagons
macca voters: same plus will in desperate self-saving mode. this zombie wagon lumbers on
will voters: same plus ham. remains the 'not sweet' wagon.
sweet voters: same plus spirit. this is the only vote placed in between now and the previous interval that had a definite 'i scumread this person', which looks good for spirit. editors note: lol he died. this might be why.

bozo and jamie get off vanity wagons for sweet. bozo has only engaged with sweet once before in the whole day (admittedly not a high poster), and says his reason is not very strong. however he never moves his vote even as sweet becomes a giant wagon. jamie is also not a big sweet fan in his vote, and also, like bozo never really engages sweet throughout the day in any determinative manner

two macca voters also flip onto sweet but their votes weren't relevant (will and damo) so they don't count.

i think because sweet was trying to make it him vs will, will looks tentatively better. i'm not sure who else he could have chosen though - macca's wagon was effectively dead, as was mine. the only other wagon with momentum in the final minutes before eod was will, partially because will was doing his whole freakout routine. sweet was also trying to attack will directly for that, quoting a post where will plans out possibilities for sweet getting flipped and how he dies. i think on balance this makes will look somewhat worse, but in a meta planning way. i'm unfamiliar with how he plays so idrk.

bozo and jamie both get towncredit for being the important 'kill sweet' votes. taking a look at your teammate tied with two other people (even if one of macca/will is mafia) and saying 'yeah fuck you' is wildly crazy. not impossible, but just plain wild.

ham the bam looks bad for joining the 'not sweet' wagon. rdr was also on the 'will or macca' train, and repeatedly reaffirmed that he wouldn't kill sweet. not super in line with the scum!rdr i know but it's also not a great look.

macca wagon feels town-driven
will wagon feels scum-driven
sweet wagon feels town-driven
at t-0:26 i would be willing to bet that at most one of the sweet voters was scum, the wagon with the most scum on was will, and the macca wagon had one or so. the off-wagon voters (bozo, jamie, chaqa, macca) could obviously have one but hard to read anything into chaqa or (less so) macca.

tl;dr:
bozo/jamie likely good
hb/rd bad
will conditional on an understanding of him that i lack, but his voters suck.
worcej/ghug likely good

[Bonatogether]

Didn't he say this was his 2nd time playing? Give him some time to feel it out. Now that you have a theory about his thought process you can work better with him.

I haven't seen Bunny play as scum before so can't comment on his metas too much but this conversation generally feels townly? The repeated desire to understand how one person is working. Idk. Might spin more later i was tricked into doing a turkey trot

psychoanalysis that adds nothing to scumanalysis is not an inherently townie move.

also bongo only townreads me when he's scum

Or when you're scum...

We've yet to both correctly townread each other.

Someday our Thanksgiving timing will work out and we'll see each other for who we really are.

can't recall a time you've correctly scumread me

[Bonatogether]

##vote will

[rdrivera2005]

This said, at this point I think both you and Bunny are town.

IS that opinion strong enough to nearly dispel the "coaching during D1" notion that was floating around out there?

I don't think coaching on D1 is really indicative. You can "coach" a town to try to pocket him. I think the reaction to Bunny questioning looks townie. Unless that was a really well prepared scum theater I think it's TxT.

[rdrivera2005]

At this point I still think Will is a good vote and also Temasek. Macca have been suspicious too, but Temasek vote looks opportunistic independently of Macca's alignment.

ND/Bona is another option but I fear this is just because I can't read Bona.

I think Sweet interaction looks like frustrated town.

##vote JustAGuyNamedWill

Rivera, do you mean Sweet in general looks like town, or Sweet's interactions with Will make them look like town?

What was sus about Macca?

Obviously the first as I was voting Will.

Macca naked vote on ND and his retreat when questioned about it.

[ghug]

Bona, why does Jamie's vote carry the same weight as bozo's for you? It came many minutes later, all of which sweet had spent in the lead with no movement. I think that's a way more plausible bus.

[rdrivera2005]

I can vote Macca to break the tie, but then Macca can tie again.

Won't vote for Sweet today.

So choosing to leave the vote on Will; at the time of that post it was 4-4-4, but then announcing that Sweet would not be your vote? What was your thought process at that point? What made Sweet a less-viable candidate?

And I don't want it to seem that I am picking on you; it's just your D1 iso is short so it's quick easy reading for me.

My D1 was pretty lame, so no problems questioning me.

I thought Sweet was town, didn't said he isn't a viable candidate, just don't want to vote for a town read. Between Will and Macca I was voting Will but could change to avoid a tie and just said that to minimize last minute shenanigans. Then I just missed EOD and my vote stayed.

[Bonatogether]

Bona, why does Jamie's vote carry the same weight as bozo's for you? It came many minutes later, all of which sweet had spent in the lead with no movement. I think that's a way more plausible bus.

it's not the same, and agree that it is a more plausible bus, but it's still very bold to attempt no save. jamie doesn't hard commit to the wagon, and possibly could have moved, but the question for me would be why does jamie not tie macca (whom jamie had made his whole klaxon post about)? will is there, also, but jamie had been relatively positive towards him/questioning why others were voting him.

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Happy Thanksgiving! Cant wait for apple cider and mashed potatoes!

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

##vote will

Lol

I’ll do a backflip if you don’t

[Bonatogether]

##vote will

Lol

I’ll do a backflip if you don’t

do something townie and i'll laugh

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

##vote will

Lol

I’ll do a backflip if you don’t

do something townie and i'll laugh

Tough sell. Backflip still on the table

[Bonatogether]

Lol

I’ll do a backflip if you don’t

do something townie and i'll laugh

Tough sell. Backflip still on the table

what are you asking me for

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

do something townie and i'll laugh

Tough sell. Backflip still on the table

what are you asking me for

Oh, nothing.

[Bonatogether]

Tough sell. Backflip still on the table

what are you asking me for

Oh, nothing.

so why are you still talking to me

[Hamilton Brian]

Bona, I really like the post. I do. Probably the best thing I've read from you since I've been playing with you.

I also agree that I look bad for my vote on Will when Sweet could have gained my vote and...hark, the angels sing...Sweet is confirmed mafia. If that's why someone will vote me out today, go for it.

However, I disagree that jamie looks good for that position. It's not like jamie managed to "save the day" and bring out the mafia. Bozo did that. If Bozo did that to a teammate...good-sized cajones. I am sus of anyone else that followed on.

[Hamilton Brian]

I am half-way through my D1 read. Still working on it.

If there is anything particular to address to me, hit me with an @ AND just type in Brian. I'll catch it easier.

[Bonatogether]

Bona, I really like the post. I do. Probably the best thing I've read from you since I've been playing with you.

I also agree that I look bad for my vote on Will when Sweet could have gained my vote and...hark, the angels sing...Sweet is confirmed mafia. If that's why someone will vote me out today, go for it.

However, I disagree that jamie looks good for that position. It's not like jamie managed to "save the day" and bring out the mafia. Bozo did that. If Bozo did that to a teammate...good-sized cajones. I am sus of anyone else that followed on.

no way that's the best post i've made

maybe the best post recently but that's a low low bar

[damo666]

We don't know. I think the key thing I don't like doing in these cases is eliminating half the game from consideration in either direction. Look at the individual sweet voters to see who's more/less likely to bus. Look at the non-sweet voters to see who might have been trying to protect him. If there are two, it's plausible that one is a late voter like Jamie or Will who isn't getting much credit to begin with.

Out of curiosity, what makes worcej and Spirit towncore but not me or Bona?

You because of your possible deflection by the bussing post. Bona because I need something more to towncore him.

So I went from towncore to scummy in your mind by suggesting there was bussing, something the majority of the game agrees with?

You were never towncore and not particularly scummy but I have a nagging feeling that your bus comment may have been a clever scum deception. I put you at something like 65% town. Need to over 80% to be towncore.

[damo666]

I think it's a bit odd few people are throwing suspicion my way given how I've pretty much been a non-factor. I think there's probably some reading into who hasn't said much vs. the few who have, but maybe the thrill of catching mafia on Day 1 has stymied that.

Maybe you have been trying to be a non-factor on purpose.

Chaqa's new style is to lay low to survive until D2 at least.