M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[Jamiet99uk]

The person I am in a chat with openly admitted to being mafia and claimed that no one would ever believe me even if I announced it. I asked them who they were mafia with and they said ezio, Jamie, and sweetandcool.

I asked how that was possible and they said they were only lying about one of the three.

I know that either Brainbomb or his dance partner is lying.

Did you find a fat version of flum's avatar?

Don't claim things FYI.

You literally claimed in your third post.

[Jamiet99uk]

Where's Damo.?

[Jamiet99uk]

For now I think it's most cromulent to ##Vote Brainbomb.
His posts about his dance partner confessing to be scum are most likely fake.

[Jamiet99uk]

Damn this setup is weird.

[Jamiet99uk]

I am open to entertaining that aaro and S&C are making considerations of something in the setup I can’t see yet. I need to think more on WHY it is bad for town but I am usually pretty simple and react to the easiest thing I can see. I do think that being opposed to claiming is seen as less town and more mafia motivated. I’ll leave it there and sit with it. Until then then we do our usual D1 random kill of someone unless there’s an egregious slip.

So to gut reads it is.

So what are your gut reads?

[Jamiet99uk]

We can post?

Hello.
Yes you can post.

Are you interested in posting some more grasshoppa?

Yep. Sorry for the low posting to start with, I was with my friend Jasmine and she's a lot more interesting and charming than any of you nerds.

[damo666]

Hi. I’m at work but I wanted to post to say that if you’re town, the odds that your partner is scum is 3/11.

Also I meant to spend time thinking about claiming partners but I got distracted by the math.

7 pairings, 3 containing scum

3/7, close to 50%

O dear o dear o dear

[damo666]

Where's Damo.?

Here now.

[Jamiet99uk]

How are you feeling?

[Hamilton Brian]

Yep. Sorry for the low posting to start with, I was with my friend Jasmine and she's a lot more interesting and charming than any of you nerds.

Hurts. A deep pain. Suddenly feeling overwhelmingly hollow and empty.

[Hamilton Brian]

So what are your gut reads?

Settle down there; I only gave it about 5 to 10 minutes to skim the thread. On the surface worcej and kak are coming across as genuine. I'll see how I feel after spending more time today reading and asking.

[Hamilton Brian]

There is absolutely no reason to claim before N1.

I feel like you're opinion has changed from "don't claim at all" to now one of "claim, but not before N1."

Am I misinterpreting your position? If it changed, why?

I still don't get the opposition to claiming from earlier and I understand less the difference between claiming now vs N1. I need to spend some more time with it.

[Hamilton Brian]

It makes sense that Mafia got pregame chat for this setup, but I swear it wasn't mentioned anywhere in the setup. I am thankful someone asked and that information was revealed and am annoyed that I didn't know about it in the first place.

I will have to reassess the current dynamics and see how much that changes my reads.

Is this a townslip?

[damo666]

Aaro is right, let me explain

Chance of being drawn with Mafia1 = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia2 = (1-1/11)*(1/10) = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia3 = (1-2/11)*(1/9) = 1/11

So if you are town the chance your partner is mafia is 3/11.

So as a townie your partner is more likely to be scum than somebody chosen at random (3/13).

Therefore logically you should vote your partner BUT if all town did that scum would have to follow suit so we would essentially be voting no kill AND revealing partners.

Therefore just vote who you think is scummy.

##vote Chaqa

I think worcej is a naive town and his claim that Chaqa is his partner is probably true (though see caveat below). So from mpov Chaqa is theoretically more likely to be scum than a random selection.

I hardclaim worcej is not my partner.

Chaqa may or may not be my partner.

[damo666]

How are you feeling?

Me? OK. Better than 4 hours ago.

[damo666]

It makes sense that Mafia got pregame chat for this setup, but I swear it wasn't mentioned anywhere in the setup. I am thankful someone asked and that information was revealed and am annoyed that I didn't know about it in the first place.

I will have to reassess the current dynamics and see how much that changes my reads.

Is this a townslip?

Yeah but could be fake so NAI imo

[Hamilton Brian]

right, we totally would not want this riveting game to get boring

In the nicest way possible, if you were a sports division, you’d be the AL central.

That is really funny. Very, very funny.

[Jamiet99uk]

How are you feeling?

Me? OK. Better than 4 hours ago.

What happened 4 hours ago?

[Hamilton Brian]

I am not going to sit down with bloodthirsty monsters who have been killing and terrifying my people.

Does mafia so blatantly refuse to explain the how and why claiming is bad? Do they do it under the subterfuge of, "Oh, I'm not going to help mafia get their game on?" In other words, do aaro and S&C make themselves so obvious as mafia? Probably not, but then it's the WIFOM nature that makes it a challenge.

Christ, I said I'd leave it alone. It's like that bright peanut on the lawn and I am the ADHD squirrel that can't get undistracted from it.

[brainbomb]

Town
Kakarrotto
worcej
damo666
ghug
chaqa
HamiltonBrian
rdrivera2005