MAFIA 79: The Price is Right! [GAME THREAD]

[Dousing]

S&C, this might be bad play, but if you got lucky and landed a special town role tell me because I really want to help you clear your name

[rdrivera2005]

So earlier I mentioned that I was working off a worldview where Koala and rdr and scum mainly because (a: I think Koala's kinda hard confirmed b: I'm town leaning a lot of people)

I would really, really, love for Snowy to elaborate. I will even promise in advance I won't respond defending myself. I just want the rest of the group to see your actual reasoning as opposed to convenient coasting along.

See, when Bona acts suspicious and makes what I think is a bad case, the one thing I have to give Bona credit for is trying to solve (or pretending to). Even Damo, when directly confronted, put themselves out there – and even voted ##end, which has already drawn some interesting discussion on "why?" and suspicion towards Damo.

But with you Snowy, i find it strangely ironic. Here is my take: At first Snowy contributed nothing than a couple naked quotes – then several people, myself included (Jamiet also comes to mind), called you out on it... and what was your response?

You response was a few posts explaining why you are not answering the direct pointed questions – without actually answering the direct pointed questions. To me that reads that Snowy put in a bunch of effort to justify continued dodging of the questions, where Snowy could have spent the same time to ... oh I don't know, actually answer them?

For the time being, my vote is staying put.

I'm kind of feeling the same about snowy.

Me too.

[rdrivera2005]

I'm gonna park my vote here for the time being:

##VOTE rdrivera2005

Care to explain why?

[Dousing]

I'm gonna park my vote here for the time being:

##VOTE rdrivera2005

Care to explain why?

Dartboard

[President Eden]

S&C, this might be bad play, but if you got lucky and landed a special town role tell me because I really want to help you clear your name

🗞

bad newbie

[Bonatogether]

ARRRG I just don't see Koala as mafia!!!!!

It's the vibe, it seems authentic

besides, I think Koala has had a rather tight defense especially since noone can really put up a fair argument against them.

I also don't see them as bad because I am the person that closest to actually defending them and Koala is an afterthought to Eden and S&C in my eyes

why was my argument not fair

To be honest


To be ONE HUNDRED PERCENT honest... I forgot and I'm too lazy to look back because it kinda hurts my head to reread the same argument for like the fourth time.

All I know was that I don't think there was anything substantial you've put against Koala and that there wasn't really a smoking gun I could identify.

besides, there hasn't been any new allegations against them aside from what can essentially be summed up as "Koala sus". TBH, Koala's right, it a lot harder to prove innocence rather than guilt

you can set whatever bar of evidence that you like but in practice you don't ever get something super 100% solid. also very rarely are there smoking guns - patterns of behavior are much more common than single instances as a basis for a read

[KoalaAttack]

What all have you learned from these baiting sessions?

I don't need to be the one learning. I will be dead by the time I flip Town, remember?

For example – it's pretty obvious both Damo and Jamiet are annoyed by my style of play. We know this already, no news there. But one can evaluate their reactions through the lens of "authentic / usual annoyance" vs "pretend Mafia annoyance".

I mean, I can also evaluate that, and I try – but the thing is, it's my 4th game with them around (and not always as players). How many games you or some of the others on here played with Damo or Jamiet?

I do things, things generate reactions, everyone can see reactions – I'm happy with folks who know Damo or Jamiet better than me evaluate the authenticity. Of course, 3 of you are Mafia, but statistically that still lives majority-Town to do the evaluation.

--

Having said that, to answer your question, Jamiet seems similar to last game so I don't Mafia-read him ATM. Also given our Discord argument with Jamiet past last game, Jamiet is acting more or less as I would expect a Town Jamiet to act here.

Damo I'm less clear about, the ##end vote is bad Town move given the context, and Damo seems to have less hesitation in quick-judging-my-antics-as-Mafia as compared to Jamiet, which is interesting after the last game.

My suspects are now Snowy, Bona, sweetandcool, then Damo & yourself in roughly that order of decreasing confidence.

Sorry I should elaborate on the rest of my learnings:

- I learned that Snowy is my primary suspect because Snowy conveniently jumped on the opportunity to drive-by-shade me, repeatedly, without voting, and proceeding to post justifications on why they are not answering simple questions people are asking of them.

- Bona continues to be Suspicious in my book because Bona himself plays fast-and-loose, with plenty of antics of their own. So when say Jamiet gets all rigid about the way I play that's one thing, but for Bona to do it... I just expect Bona to be more dismissive of it.

- sweetandcool is a weaker version of the Snowy sentiment, but gets some benefit of the doubt being new on here

- yourself – seem to be carefully avoiding my baiting and all the related conversations so far, which given I consider you one of the most experienced solves on here feels a tad like "Town is tearing itself apart, Mafia popcorn time" from you

[Jamiet99uk]

Ladies & Gentlemen,

This here is a dedicated, stand-along post added for the sole purpose of expressing my immense gratitude to the one and only Bonatogether for his contributions in pointing out the errors of my LOTR referencing ways and helping guide me to an honorable sepukku.

If you are town, committing Sepukku over silly things like this, is against your win condition.

[Bonatogether]

why was my argument not fair

To be honest


To be ONE HUNDRED PERCENT honest... I forgot and I'm too lazy to look back because it kinda hurts my head to reread the same argument for like the fourth time.

All I know was that I don't think there was anything substantial you've put against Koala and that there wasn't really a smoking gun I could identify.

besides, there hasn't been any new allegations against them aside from what can essentially be summed up as "Koala sus". TBH, Koala's right, it a lot harder to prove innocence rather than guilt

All I know @Bona is that you're good at smokescreening and that I haven't heard anything new from you RE: Koala than just "he's mafia". If you reiterate your points I'm willing to change my position but I really don't buy voting someone who didn't even join the Fox wagon on D1

i don't know what you mean by smokescreening

i made a big post showing that he has a pattern of obfuscating what i'm saying to minimize my criticism of his posts and that i pointed out his argument against snc was really super lame and probably freeriding on fox

why do you think scum definitely voted fox?

[KoalaAttack]

- sweetandcool is a weaker version of the Snowy sentiment, but gets some benefit of the doubt being new on here

Err, sweetandcoll always responds to their credit. Basically my thoughts are similar to what Dousing summarized.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Damo:

Using base 6 or base 12 (your choice), could you calculate the percentage chance of Rdrivera, Koala, and President Edam being the scum team?

I can. Zero.

100% vanilla town TM?

I have prompters for you. Give me like half an hour ish to find time to write it out

That trade mark is now void.

[Jamiet99uk]

Because I'm well known for being a skilled analyst. And I've spent considerable effort on my posts. And I've at least put up real arguments, whereas a lot of other players just chime in with opinions with little to no given reason. And I totally drove the Fox wagon and it's a bit insulting to be told I was safely bandwagoning.

I just wish I had the charisma to convince you to stop wasting your time focusing on me

And I'm also sad that the players I want to trust the most are the ones that trust me the least (and I trust less too). Fox, Koala, and Dousing all write out detailed arguments. Even President Eden has charisma. And yet regrettably, Fox and Koala focussed on offense instead of defense, and Dousing is totally zeroed in on me, and I suspect President Eden even though I have little to go on.

Dear Skilled Analyst – I am very confused between the two bits of your post highlighted in red. They seem kind of saying the opposite things, no? I will give you the benefit of the doubt of this just being a confusing sentence structure though ... but what exactly are you saying about your trust in these players here?

Fwiw, it's clear to me, and there's no contradiction.

[KoalaAttack]

S&C, this might be bad play, but if you got lucky and landed a special town role tell me because I really want to help you clear your name

This is not a good idea, gives Mafia info. Interesting that of the experienced folks who poster after this one so far, only President Eden pointed this out.

[Jamiet99uk]

What all have you learned from these baiting sessions?

I don't need to be the one learning. I will be dead by the time I flip Town, remember?

For example – it's pretty obvious both Damo and Jamiet are annoyed by my style of play. We know this already, no news there. But one can evaluate their reactions through the lens of "authentic / usual annoyance" vs "pretend Mafia annoyance".

I mean, I can also evaluate that, and I try – but the thing is, it's my 4th game with them around (and not always as players). How many games you or some of the others on here played with Damo or Jamiet?

I do things, things generate reactions, everyone can see reactions – I'm happy with folks who know Damo or Jamiet better than me evaluate the authenticity. Of course, 3 of you are Mafia, but statistically that still lives majority-Town to do the evaluation.

--

Having said that, to answer your question, Jamiet seems similar to last game so I don't Mafia-read him ATM. Also given our Discord argument with Jamiet past last game, Jamiet is acting more or less as I would expect a Town Jamiet to act here.

Damo I'm less clear about, the ##end vote is bad Town move given the context, and Damo seems to have less hesitation in quick-judging-my-antics-as-Mafia as compared to Jamiet, which is interesting after the last game.

My suspects are now Snowy, Bona, sweetandcool, then Damo & yourself in roughly that order of decreasing confidence.

You realise you just cast an end vote?

[snowy801]

@rdrivera

I need from you two sanity checks:

1) What does this mean

i think i'm pretty clearly cooler as i wasn't born in the previous millennium like a boomer

When we flip you as Mafia, if I'm still alive, I'll say "boom" just for you.

2) What does this mean

I have a guilty scan on Bofa.

Why? Please explain, otherwise this is meaningless chatter.

Primarily off the back of 1), I have hardlocked Koala scum and am working on the tentative assumption that Chaqa is town, and therefore someone (possibly Eden) is pushing him as a desired counterwagon. Too early to be determining such things, but I would like your reaction to this understanding.

From you I would like your reaction to the following statement by bozo, particularly the TvT part, and your own understanding of that interaction:

What are people's takes on bona?

On average a lot of people seemed to have warmed up considerably since yesterday, any notable causes?

I am not sure I buy that Bonatogether did not read the setup until N1, but Bonatogether vs. KoalaAttack seems like it could be T vs. T.

Further I would like your specific reads on the following:
bona, Jamiet, sweetandcool, and your broader understanding of the gamestate as a whole if you have any insights.

[Jamiet99uk]

S&C, this might be bad play, but if you got lucky and landed a special town role tell me because I really want to help you clear your name

Eek

[snowy801]

I can. Zero.

100% vanilla town TM?

I have prompters for you. Give me like half an hour ish to find time to write it out

That trade mark is now void.

Fat F

[KoalaAttack]

You realise you just cast an end vote?

Uhh.. wait what?

##UNEND

Nope I didn't. Thank you Jamiet.

[sweetandcool]

You only placed a vote on Fox after being called out yourself. You've went on offense when Fox was questioning you, exactly what you've said was a tell for Mafia members

You need to look at more than just vote history. Look at Fox's threads and then look at mine. I was calling them best candidate for Mafia Traitor on page 18, they voted for me on page 21. I changed my vote because of their response to my accusations was not a defense, but rather just dismissing my argument out of hand and then going on the offense against me. So their response to my accusation convinced me I was correct. Their vote against me was not the convincing part.

Okay yes, I see your point but Fox's argument was that you were already steering the vote with flimsy evidence (Koala's self-vote which you've never seemed to let go of).

Truth be told, Fox was correct in their assessment and let's not forget their final words shall we?

MY final thoughts;

The first game I played, I rolled scum, and then my entire scum team was caught, one right after the other, the first four days of game. I went on to win, it was pretty glorious, but then a couple games later, there was another newbie player, and I could just tell he was scum because he was playing the same game I did when I was new. And I was right about that, and that's also what I'm seeing in Sweet. 
Rdr, I can't find it, but I know in past games we have done this exact thing before where you say you don't like my play and then I end up town. I can't find the specific post in a previous game where I told you to remember that, but if you message me your address, I will hand embroider a pillow cover that says "Note to Self: I can't read Foxcastle at all and I should stop voting him on Day 1."

Eden, Damo, and Bozo would be where I look after Sweet. 

Also: Really interesting how Eden went from being "tied with Koala as my number one suspect" to completely forgotten about as soon you realized nobody is biting

I'm glad you're at least starting to at least understand me a bit. You're right that I've put my suspicions of Eden to the wayside, and you're right that it is because nobody has decided to talk about it. When I already have a stronger Mafia suspect (Koala), I don't feel the need to pursue my 2nd suspect. I will happily make further claims against Eden if more evidence shows up, especially if I no longer have Koala as suspect number one.

In the meantime, you keep tunneling on me and despite being aware of my thoughts about President Eden you have refrained from actually commenting on it.

Could you actually be productive and comment on President Eden? I don't care if it is positive, negative, or neutral, but something would be nice instead of this constant useless whining about me not crusading against them.

[snowy801]

Now if you'll excuse me I'm gonna go read if s&c's arguments are, in fact, overwhelmingly ephemeral

What a statement