MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[BK3K]

Have i not sussed you every single day night cycle.

The only person to blame is Bunny

d1 you didn't

hence the joke that you were put up to it in scum chat by some asshole who didn't warn you what might happen

Don't you remember telling me in scum to pick a fake fight with you today?

Oops, did i type that out loud?

In seriousness, what on earth might happen? I have no idea what you mean by that lol

[P.s. koala this is all a joke]

I miss day 1 where we only shit post

[Chaqa]

POE Pool

in preference order, and subject to change contingent upon completion of review

Not Killing Ever, Bar Insane Shenanigans
President Eden
brainbomb
Princess Neon

Unconfirmed Town
KoalaAttack
bozotheclown
rdrivera2005

Null
BK3K
Bonatogether
TheFlyingBoat

lfischl
lfischl

Scum
Chaqa

You are giving entirely too much town cred to both Neon and Koala

[Chaqa]

Not That Huge When It's Only the Parts Actually That Are a Case Against Chaqa


rdrivera actually had more extensive interaction with ghug than Chaqa did, despite Chaqa lapping rdrivera in posts several times over. Both players had opposite progressions on ghug - rdrivera started out softly townreading ghug D1 but transitioned to suspicion by N1 and ultimately voted ghug out D2. You could argue that this was the result of a premeditated bus, but that seems difficult to square with the knowledge that damo is town, because surely it would have been easier for rdrivera to just lay off the gas. Meanwhile, Chaqa starts out shading ghug D1 but then transitions to a townread by D2 with no specific desire to stop ghug's wagon. Chaqa ultimately lands on damo. I think this is much more indicative of a bus as it becomes less committal over time. I also selfishly know I'm town and thus that ghug was the only mafia wagon available near EOD2, so Chaqa might have felt uncertain that ghug was going to survive and might have wanted to avoid overextending to save ghug, instead just opting to quietly vote the better town counterwagon and hope that that's enough.

Which it almost was, until the final minute, where literally every person who didn't vote BunnyGo D1 + hasn't claimed Doctor elected to vote ghug off, except Chaqa.

TLDR Chaqa's dancing with ghug looks far more like the part of a scum buddy than anyone else who is outside the D1 BunnyGo voters, so if you think the assumption that not all 4 mafia voted BunnyGo D1 is true, Chaqa is scum

This case really isn't that impressive, and there's nothing linking me to ghug except the fact we didn't vote for Bunny on Day 1. In fact, I've highlighted in yellow the only part of that post that actually links me to ghug.

This doesn't seem like good-faith analysis to me.

[Bonatogether]

d1 you didn't

hence the joke that you were put up to it in scum chat by some asshole who didn't warn you what might happen

Don't you remember telling me in scum to pick a fake fight with you today?

Oops, did i type that out loud?

In seriousness, what on earth might happen? I have no idea what you mean by that lol

[P.s. koala this is all a joke]

I miss day 1 where we only shit post

every day is a shitpost day if you really want

it's called being emc

[Chaqa]

Don't you remember telling me in scum to pick a fake fight with you today?

Oops, did i type that out loud?

In seriousness, what on earth might happen? I have no idea what you mean by that lol

[P.s. koala this is all a joke]

I miss day 1 where we only shit post

every day is a shitpost day if you really want

it's called being emc

You really don't want to make that a thing.

[Bonatogether]

there is a mafia member

i seek to find him

haha he said amogus

obligatory

stop lurking ghug

a post of interest. notate it down on your e-books now

I played a few times as a kid at parties or whatever. I work with Bunny and he set up a text based one on Teams. I played as townie first game and GM'd the second one. That second one ended Friday

Why do you ask?

you're new here, but something about your phrasing rang more experienced. it has a nice mix of insincere edge that befits a veteran mafia player

you also expressed some concern about what the roles did, but had no issue joking about being shot by the Vig if you weren't the Vig.

just a little incongruence that I'm not sure what to do with yet

bishkek shade that disappears

he can be annoyed by rule violations as scum too. and would use that as a way to look like his usual self

thus the performative comment as opposed to sincere

Yeah, I don't think it makes him townie, it just seems a sincere enough expression of his actual feelings. I'd be suspicious if he were overdoing his outrage, but I'm not seeing that here.

but ghug probably can tell the difference better than I can.

I'm terrible at reading Jamie. I just scumread him in games where everyone else townreads him because others are also terrible at reading him.

i too shall shamelessly punt on giving an actual opinion on him

suspicous amount of ghuggery

I go to class…and this balloons from 4 pages of TFB and Bofa being jackasses to 13 pages!

Who is Bofa?

bofa deez nuts

thank you!

As far as my views on the game
I think ghug, koala, Bk, you (eden), have shown some town scent thus far.

less certain of flying boat, chaqa, bungo, and jamie

and then im a little behind too

bona maybe town as well

you got that far already? sheesh

tell me about ghug. why does he wear the mask?
I end up wanting to run him up the flagpole almost every game lol

no thoughts on Flum? he seems like he should be in that town scent group based on interactivity, and of the people in that group I got the best ~~~vibes~~~ from him. for whatever that's worth

I think I liked Koala's reaction to my post. would have liked a bit more bite, but he is newer so maybe that's fine

specifically focusing on ghuggity, then this leaves him open to do anything with his read. more broadly, it's a lot of nothing comments, especially for 7 hours into d1

poor guy.
this does happen to him yes
I'm not sure if that's what happened this game
all I know is that even quickly realizing he was riffing on flum's bit I was by his early posting. felt stilted. if I may borrow from a wise player, ~~~the vibes were off~~~

talking about stilted

stfu

holy based i'm so rad

how fucking hilarious would it be if the GM has more posts than the entire scumteam combined?

Entirely possible. I think like 5 people haven’t even posted lol.

Since you’re the only one who bit on the question, I’ve been feeling like there hasn’t been much ‘steering’ going on. I’m hesitant to draw conclusions too early, especially since there’s been a lot of shitposting, but there’s just been no conflict so far. It’s so unusual for webDip that I’m kind of thrown off lol. Usually someone has thunderdomed (ok fine it’s usually me!!) and we get opinions that way. Everybody has been so chill this time that I wonder if we just caught mafia napping thru d1 sans like maybe one guy who’s been on an island

a rather self evidently scummy post, especially when we consider ghug was active and posting by this time

notating this

you do that, nerd

radically basedism on my part

Good morning class.

So far I don’t want to kill brain, Bona, Flum, or the newbies.

ghug is in that space where I want to townread him which means I will probably do a 180 out of nowhere and want to kill him by day 3

I’m happy with my Boat vote this early, but I’m loosely bothered by the fact that he keeps getting drive-by comments about being scummy from people who aren’t voting him (Bona and Flum come to mind). Haven’t processed what that means yet

continuing to avoid giving a definite, fixed read on ghughers. claims he likes me and flum but shades us both for reads on boat without votes

further rereading confirms that i made this exact same post way back when. im so happy! then edenopolis gave a cringe answer that i won't quote (some shit about voting who i sused, when the game was like 18 hours in. famously cringe!)

Good morning class.

So far I don’t want to kill brain, Bona, Flum, or the newbies.

ghug is in that space where I want to townread him which means I will probably do a 180 out of nowhere and want to kill him by day 3

I’m happy with my Boat vote this early, but I’m loosely bothered by the fact that he keeps getting drive-by comments about being scummy from people who aren’t voting him (Bona and Flum come to mind). Haven’t processed what that means yet

Dislike this post.

no you don’t

There’s a bot here: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/front_page

Its output can be kind of hard to read at times, so I suggest using this view instead.

YouTube ads ruined the rickroll.

Great, Google and now ghoogle ruined my bit

##VOTE ghug

this vote lasts 30 minutes

This is not the game state I wanted to come back to from dinner

this response is like a shitty marvel one liner

Bona, tell me about Bunny vs Chaqa. What do you make of Chaqa’s bordering on disdain for the game? What about Bunny has you lock-scumming him?

Koala, same thing, but reverse. You know Bunny relatively well compared to the rest of the player base. Do you agree with Bunny being a primary suspect? How does that feeling compare to your thoughts on Chaqa?

ascribing positions to me that i never had, forgetting koalers (lmao)

Ah but you see mon frere, I already accounted for that so I have been operating at yomi level 3 while you are merely at level 2! That being said I do feel good about Bona's shitposting. It feels like Bona and not forced Bona.

There seems to be some attempts here to evaluate even at a time when most of the posts were just vibes and nonsense.

I got the opposite impression, but I think the start of game stuff can reasonably be interpreted either way. If it were just earlygame ~vibes~ that wouldn’t matter enough to vote either way at this point.

I’m more bothered by the fact that he’s camping on a lurker and claiming it’s a pressure vote when the substance of what swordsman HAS posted clearly suggests that type of pressure isn’t going to work. Swordsman may not even be aware he’s being voted lol… It just looks like the type of plausibly “staying busy” play I expect mafia to be making right now

tepid and uninteresting, especially on d1, especially against someone like boat man (@tfb yes this is insulting)

All that said I tend to agree Bunny hasn’t left a major impression and I’m fine with him being the daykill. I feel like I have better reasons to suspect Boat so I’m staying here for now

if you were scum watching bongo die, what about this post would you do differently?

It’s been a while but my recollection is that he has very good mechanical reasoning and execution (a long time back, he got put in an awful mechanical spot in a multiball game and schemed up a brilliant play to try to tie the vote and force mafia into a prisoner’s dilemma) and he’s willing to put in a lot of work to catch people.

He’s also just generally a pretty smart guy, notwithstanding his alma mater

I think most of my suspicion is me expecting more from him. Like if Bona were just cruising and not asking any good questions of people, I’d suspect him for that but not others. Same deal. Boat is better than what he’s putting out

so based on expectation vs output and result
you would say
TFB = high expectation (with low result)
Bunny = high to mid expectation? (has a low result but not as low as tfb?)
chaqa = ??

I guess im just trying to put it down on paper that you genuinely expect better play from theflying boat than you do from
a veteran like bunny or chaqa

I don’t think they’re directly comparable. I don’t remember how many games you’ve played with town Boat but that guy puts in a lot of effort questioning people and detailing his reads. His ‘pressure vote’ on swords is considerably less than what I think he would be doing to pressure swords as town. (Never mind that I highly doubt this form of ‘pressure’ is even effective anyway given swords’s professed difficulty in keeping up.) Boat is kind of like me or Bona where volume is indicative of effort and engagement and a lack of either is indicative of scum.

Chaqa on the other hand will usually have a decent voting record but is notorious for barely ever explaining himself. It wasn’t that long ago that he sardonically used “because” in every sentence to open a game because he was told he would become 1000% more effective if he used because sentences to explain himself… the guy just doesn’t spew volumes the way Boat or Bona or I do. So the lack of that isn’t indicative to me. I still think he’s a good vote because he’s pointedly not doing anything and doesn’t seem to want to do anything, but it’s a different context than Boat.

As for Bunny I’m just going to cop to the fact that I barely read his past two games despite GMing one and co-GMing the other and say that I don’t have much in the way of personalized expectations with him, so I don’t feel as strongly as you seem to feel about his play. But I generally agree he’s been forgettable so I’m willing to go with the group on this one.

you can read these other posts and honestly they aren't great either but i'm too lazy to comment on them atp. the important thing is that he's signalling a willingness to vote bungus without actually scumreading him!

!!!

Open question to all experienced players: Is it a good idea to follow the crowd in D1 or to blaze your own trail?

blazing your own trail is much preferred because it shows other people where you are + it comes from the only viewpoint you can 100% trust to be townie (your own)

that said, I'm not above breaking a "tie" or "close call" among multiple suspects by following somebody I townread who's been putting in good work. I don't think anyone else here is above it either

and ultimately, at EOD, you should consolidate onto one of the wagons that is plausibly going to go, so you may end up following anyway by virtue of that need

brainless newbie advice, could have been copypasted from like 5 different games

##VOTE damo666

Boat vs damo vs Bunny (vs lfischl?) is an interesting D1.

Pull an Abraham and kill your son with me

I don’t wanna

weee wooo weeee wooo weee woooo
scum communication????

wagons are so static, not what I expected to see with all these shenanigans.

Chaqa — dejectedness feels sincere, but I’m pretty sure is NAI. it’s kind of lessening my suspicion of him because his apathy has a non scum motivated explanation I find plausible. that said, I’m worried this slot only gets resolved on the chopping block. and joke or not, claiming scum as scum and expecting to get away with it because “who would do that” is iconic scum Chaqa mindset

Bona — I can’t tell if I’m actually serious about this, I’ve been townreading him most of the day and principally voted him for wagonomics. but his ghosting the thread after responding to nothing of substance actually does put me off. hard to believe town Bona is this apathetic with his life on the line

Boat — felt like he came alive there when damo came up. Brain says this is opportunism, which I think is rooted in his belief that damo is town. I don’t particularly share that belief so I’m not inclined to view Boat’s efforts as opportunism… seems like he would have looked for a wagon with more momentum.

pretty much every other option is a big null to me. it probably means something that Bunny has been as active as he has yet hasn’t made a big impression, but I haven’t worked anything out yet.

I’m reluctantly going to ##VOTE Chaqa but I might move before EOD

this is a little self-centered but literally i don't understand his point about how if i was town, i would care more than i did. i've said in previous games (iirc) that townies should never be afraid to die, so this feels like an easy way to shade me without doing any real work.

also more 'willing to vote bungus but no scumread on him'

Captain Dees

Who is Captain Dees?

deez nuts

Actually on further reflection, I don't think there's a tie together like I first thought. For clarity's sake, the exchange that caught my eye:

##vote bunny Not my first choice but not bona

terrible vote

Bona had just gotten done calling the Bunny wagon "goated," so I'm not really sure why lfischl following onto it would have been "terrible." In theory, it struck me as the type of signal one mafia might send to the other to get off the wagon and be somewhere else (knowing Bunny would flip town and it would look like lfischl tried to save his teammate).

The issue is that I thought I remembered it happening earlier in the phase than it did, but it actually happened at t-1 minute... which is way too late to be trying to signal something.

lfischl tied himself to Bona pretty decisively down the stretch without a lot of explanation, which is kind of odd for a town to do, but only makes sense as mafia if Bona is also mafia.

Long story short I'm not sure what to make of it. I didn't like a lot of Bona's EOD so I'm inclined to just see them as a pair, but that has its faults obviously.

level 0 understanding of wagons and votes. town peden would never

i'm mildly bewildered that so many people dipped for n1 after that eod1

begrudging town stocks to my annoying child for putting in effort during the night

now in the time that reads barely matter (n1), he decides he thinks i'm town! suspicious

he started actually trying and it felt more like town TFB to me. I think that was about the time I mentioned 'receipts' from him searching up damo's past games, but I'll have to go back through his posts to point out exactly what resonated. I just remember some genuine excitement over his theory in an exchange with I think Bunny

I haver a theory where you and ghug are mafia trying to set up eventual mis-kills of Bonatogether, Chaqa, and damo.

oh, well, buckle up then.

this was going to be a vca but it turned into a case.



damo's progression is mystifying to me.

Town core

BK3K
brain
Chaqa
damo
FLum
Koala
rdr

Unwilling to vote today

Bona
Bozo
Bunny
ghug

Scumpool

lfischl
Eden
Sword
TFB

this is at t-10h, roughly

##vote Bunny (starts with B)

Will switch to TFB to save Chaqa if necessary.

Should be around EOD

this is only a few hours later, at t-6:17.

if you're going to be around at EOD, why on Earth would you vote someone you just got through saying you were unwilling to vote today, in order to "save" somebody else with six hours to go?

damo switches to lfischl around the 4hr mark, which is fair enough. but around the same time he's involved in some back-and-forth with TFB, who has become a lead wagon and is in his scum pool, yet he never votes TFB. TFB remained a viable wagon until the Bunny dogpile in the final minutes. damo instead ends the day on Bunny, someone he would not kill, having switched there to break a tie on Bona, someone else he would not kill, while TFB, someone in his scum pool, is viable the whole way down.


there have been other issues too:
- damo holds onto this "vote among the Bs" bit despite suggesting in multiple replies that it's a joke/not otherwise to be taken seriously. the reasoning is arbitrary as others (brain, I think TFB as well) pointed out.
- damo seemingly lock towns Chaqa based off of Chaqa riffing in an easily exploitable way off of an easily exploited "tell," committing himself for the final several hours of the day to saving Chaqa at the expense of consistency with his actual suspects.
- I've been reticent to mention this out of fear of it being sour grapes, but scumming me for expressing awe at our bad luck d1 struck me as an arbitrary grasp for a scumread less overtly nonserious than "vote among the Bs."

his whole game feels like he's just here to be here. I think it was the game I hosted recently where I noticed that when he's mafia he tends to construct arbitrary premises that allow him to reach superficially logical conclusions within those premises which advance scum's current agenda. obviously, I can't spell out for you exactly how he's doing it here, but his method here is indistinguishable (for me anyway) from his scum method.

early damo case, largely piggyback riding from the boat man. this + other posts in this vein clearly are trying to make damo a wagon, but during d2, he barely pushes him. he later tries to claim credit for damo's wagon during d3 and such. the appearance of being a solver is not anything like the sensation of being one really!

ghug is another one worth discussing.

this is the first point I can find, a little under 3.5hrs out, where ghug clearly spells out his view of the day:

Eliminating people I think are town/new/good, I think I want to kill in the following (in column-major order rather than purely alphabetical):
damo
Bona
Bozo
Boat
lfischl

Could maaaybe be talked into Bunny or Eden.

(It's worth noting that this isn't a preference list, beyond that Bunny and I were lower; ghug was poking fun at damo's alphabetical sorting by finding an arbitrary way to sort his list so that damo was at the top.)

ghug shortly after hones in on Bona:

Shouldn't bona have convinced himself he's caught someone by now?

##VOTE damo666

Boat vs damo vs Bunny (vs lfischl?) is an interesting D1.

Pull an Abraham and kill your son with me

I oblige shortly under 2 hrs out, and the votes don't move for a while, before ghug pulls his vote and votes for damo with 1:20 left, which puts Bona out of the lead and damo on top. It's unexplained (beyond "I'm bored"), but ultimately not too weird, since he has both players in his kill pool.

He then has two completely bizarre vote changes from my perspective, and I'm probably biased in how much I care about them because they sure looked like they were in reaction to me:

00:50 Eden switches Bona -> Chaqa
00:49 ghug switches damo -> Bona
(current count: Chaqa 4, Bona 3, Boat 3, various others 1)

I trusted you with my wagon man. ##VOTE bona

00:22 Eden switches Chaqa -> Bona
00:21 ghug switches Bona -> damo

I'm bored

##VOTE damo

(Note that this was an exact replica of his first post moving to damo.)

so, what, he wants Bona to die, but he doesn't want his hands dirty? but it's super important that I, specifically, be the one to kill him, because the moment I leave - which brings Bona down to 2 votes, but as the count illustrates, still clearly leaves him in contention - he comes back. or maybe more accurately, he's trying to juggle keeping Bona in contention without having to ice Bona himself.

Topping off the weirdness, he finally lands on killing Bunny during the final minute deluge, even though he's seemingly been considerably more interested in killing Bona throughout the final hours of the day.

I'm led to one of two conclusions, both of which lead me to suspect ghug:

1. ghug and Bona are a pair, and ghug was trying to keep his options open to vote Bona if he needed to do so, while ultimately preferring to kill someone else. obviously this makes ghug and Bona mafia if true.
2. ghug just wasn't very invested in how the day went (you'll notice his pool of kills is pretty close to a consensus of the killable names left), and bounced around because ??? reasons. this is highly suggestive of town Bona.

ooga booga bus!

tldr

damo sus
ghug sus
bona ???

i've liked bona's posting tonight so i'm more inclined to think we're in world #2 if ghug is scum

eden has a severe case of verbal diarrhea and shits out like 100 words on ghug interacting with me and comes up with nothing. nothing at all! just that scum ghug makes both scum bona and town bona more likely. ghug is both bussing me and setting me up to be a miskill (a la damo - similar to how eden pushed damo with that case right before???).

@eden: i like the damo case a lot and the ghug case a lot less

I feel more grounded with the damo case for sure. The pieces fit together in my head pretty well.

My conclusions with ghug feel a bit surface level, but I can't figure out what he was trying to do.

They should both consider those open invitations to fill me in lol.

oh but of course, we need to kill damo, and ghug can wait.

Here is a question for everyone (not a survey). Which is the most likely scenario:

1. Bonatogether and damo are mafia bussing each other.

2. PE and ghug are mafia leading mis-kills of Bonatogether and damo.

3. The mafia are watching town vote for each other and consist primarily of BK3K, lfischl, rdrivera, and swordsman.

4. none of the above

I don’t see anything specifically compelling about Bona’s and damo’s interactions that says they’re busing. I’m pretty confident damo is mafia, and Boma keeps alternating between good posting and aggressively disdainful levels of spamming, which is making it harder for me to TR him than it should be. But they don’t look like a mafia pair to me.

ghug certainly could be mafia, he’s not really leading anything imo. I’m less sold on what I pointed out n1 (and am mildly annoyed that I’m being represented as though I was, when I CLEARLY felt and feel much better about my damo case). I’m moved by brain’s observations though. And I feel like ghug is also in that here-to-be-here space like damo was before we called him out for it and he felt compelled to dial it up.

I think there’s necessarily some element of lurking mafia, but I’d be shocked if there are no mafia outside the lurkers.

So I guess strictly none of the above, but some truth to all? Thinking damo + ghug + a couple of lurkers for now, and that Bona is just being lazy and obnoxious rather than deliberately bloating the thread. I still think more strongly about damo than ghug, but I’d vote ghug ahead of a lot of other people

oop, your case on ghug isn't solid when you have a vote? what an interesting coincidence.

not necessarily but you have wanted to debate people on the merits of anything that looks like a scumread on you, and attack the phoenitcs, or the terms being used, or some caveat to each rather than addressing the substance that the person scumreading you finds you scummy plain and simple.
If they just simply shouldnt find you scummy thats a different argument. For example when the narrative is that you are chaotic as town, you are. but its situational. and the situation and the players you chose to display chaos towards do not seem like things you would do as town.
Additionally I think you just hate being scumread for boring reasons. And you love it when people just know exactly why you did what you did. So in this case the only way I could get you to stop fighting me on it is if I spelled exactly who you were protecting and why, and said it to a level of exactness youd just be impressed beyond measure with. and I cant do that because youre complicated and I probably will never get it exactly right why you did it, or who you exactly saved.

and thats because you did it very well.

I'm very concerned with being right regardless of alignment, though, which is where this falls apart. It's fine psychoanalysis but it's not very good scumhuntanalysis.

1) I question that, I think you hate being caught for the wrong reasons way more than being wrong about anything as town. I've seen it idk how many times in all our SvT battles in the last couple years. I think you honestly believe what you're saying about wanting to be right all the time but I don't think it's actually true.
2) That's going to manifest in different ways depending on your alignment regardless. As town it will be externally focused on pushing suspects and protecting town reads, as mafia it will be internally focused on why people suspect you for the right/wrong reasons. I think you've been more internally focused.

but you'll still put shade on ghughity! no vote, though.

fun fact: eden will never spend more than 15 consecutive minutes voting ghug throughout all of d2, despite ending on him.

I would be willing to kill swords instead of ghug. we really dont want to be stuck tomorrow picking which lurker we can elim before kilo anyway

How foregone a conclusion is it that lfischl and swordsman are going to be resolved at the chopping block instead of by posting? They're not bad shots, but if they both happen to be town that's pretty disastrous for us.

I'd probably feel a lot more comfortable with it if I could clearly tie more active potentially scum posters to them so that if we do hit mafia we have somewhere else to go.

My usual reaction to shooting lurkers like this is but our tactical situation is anything but usual, with only 2 miskills left by D2 and zero non-voting ways to resolve slots.

advocating shooting into lurkers is uninspired and stupid. eden isn't stupid. cognito ergo sum, eden is scum

I don't think ghug started it till later. Granted, i don't go back and reread things, that's my M.O.

Yeah I think I finally gave up on learning your actual name overnight, so it's entirely plausible that Bona convinced me to get on board in the scum

##VOTE ghug

i hate this motherfucker.

scumclaims then makes a good point

smh

me when

I feel like if it's not the Chaqa interaction we can find something that definitely proves that this isn't a normal response for him.

i'm not especially out to prove that... are you?

As much as damo is the logical vote here for me, my heart is really telling me to switch to ghug

weee wooo weee wooo

Unfortunately I've been roped into something that's likely to take up a big part of the remaining day. I think I'll be able to keep an eye on things and I think I'll be around for EOD, but not sure yet.

I don't think much of anything has changed about the game state. I won't vote rdr, bozo, brain, Bona and probably won't vote BK. damo is my top preference, then ghug, then after that it's a bit hazy. Based on how today has gone I'm pretty confident damo and ghug are mafia, and the mafia has struggled to figure out how to attack a day where the wagons have been locked on to multiple scum all day long. My initial case on damo remains undisputed, and he's now just flailing around right now trying to find anything that will work to get him and ghug out of today - which is why he landed on lfischl (who is basically just a lurker rand vote - and note how ghug picked lfischl too!) but immediately and shamelessly followed lfischl's hint that he might vote me.

Like this post and makes me more confident you're town, but why wouldn't ghug call a hard bus right now instead of equivocating and being wishy-washy? I feel like scum ghug would try stop the bleeding and cut damo loose here. The only explanation I can think of that explains why ghug is waiting and trying to see if there is a way to save damo is if the other two scum buddies are mega inactive lurkers and/or people ghug doesn't trust to lead the game to a successful end after he racks up a couple miskills for scum before getting caught.

I'm starting to come around to the idea that it's damo, ghug, and a couple of people who either haven't been involved (lurkers) or have proven ineffectual at being able to steer things away from damo and ghug. I can imagine that it's got to be hard in ghug's shoes where both you and your only other teammate that's getting into the mix are on the block. You don't want to give them up unless you have to.

Look at his Bona vote at this stage... that's obviously not going anywhere and it's hard to believe he even gives a shit about it

now he believes i'm town being hit with the ghug truck? his narratives come apart at the seam once you examine them across like more than a day

It is definitely plausible that we're making a strategic mistake by not shooting lurkers earlier. This spot is a weird one

But if damo and ghug are mafia... hell even if just one is, we still have time to shoot them, I'm pretty sure

trying to back out of getting flak for what he believes will be a damo kill

How can you possibly find Bona more sus than damo right now lol. This is wild.

##VOTE ghug

I don't think you believe anything you're saying right now

How can you possibly find me more sus than bona right now lol. This is wild.

Damo's played the game all day. Bona hasn't. You were on board with bona being scummy yesterday and nothing has changed. I still think he's a decent kill, but there's no reason bona shouldn't be on the block right now. Instead it's you and me, and I haven't even seen a reason for you yet.

hello his entire N1?? what?

he hasn't set the world on fire D2 but idk how you can look at all the evidence for damo and tell me in good faith that Bona is more suspicious.

sorry half your team doesn't care about the game

now i'm town, to be valiantly white knighted? what a schlump

Kind of surprised damo hasn't voted ghug for self-preservation yet, given how early he was to vote to preserve his townreads on D1.

Really solidifying this is SvS(vT... shame on y'all) for me

Not voting a townread

Shame you didn't show Bunny that consideration

easy empty dunk points

##VOTE damo666

taking away damo's ability to tie this by switching to ghug

what a strange vote at eod to make - not actually taking the responsibility for the vote.

##VOTE ghug

oops lmao! need that bus credit

Fuck yeah let's go!!!

You better shoot me damo

this reads so fake

Does my bona ghug connection hold water?

I trust you more now Eden

That result basically cleared Bona in my head. If anything, ghug was glomming onto Bona's meme to try to fit in

let's check back in with this

Lol some days I swear I have to catch the whole team to make people comfortable with me being town.

I’m just gonna tell myself it’s because you’re all TERRIFIED of my eventual rolling scum

Good finds on ghug’s posts brain, I’ll take a look at that in a bit. I don’t really see how TFB can be mafia if damo is but in a world where damo is town, maybe?

this post is why i originally started scumreading eden
now we enjoy the fruits of our labor in him playing his cards and being demonstrably cringe

I'd like to revisit the fact that lfischl was straight up gone all day, then came in at the time you'd expect lurking scum to come in and vote me to save damo/ghug, then said he was going to go back and look at things then dipped all day and has been gone since.

I'd also like to add that that was literally the first time lfischl had ever mentioned me

the run up for the current lfischl voting. to me this indicates that the fisch is town

##VOTE ghug

eden why do you swing vote?

it felt right

i don't know. logically my damo case was better. my gut was screaming that ghug was the right choice anyway. so down ghug went

read as: i want bussing credit please!!!!

Maybe Chaqa is just mafia here.

FMPOV one of these things must be true:
- All four mafia voted for BunnyGo
- One or more of Neon, Chaqa, bozo, and rdrivera are mafia

The only world I can seriously envision where all four mafia voted BunnyGo is if damo and Bona are mafia, in which case the mafia may have decided that the optics of all being on the same town counterwagon, though bad, were still better than having two of their own viably up for grabs. I don't think this is what happened though.

And out of the pool of people who didn't vote BunnyGo, Chaqa is the runaway pick IMO. I guess it could be Neon - her slot was a true null prior to her subbing in, and while she's seemed fine enough in her limited time in the game so far, it seems like it would be easy for her to put on a good first impression, considering the following:
1. She subbed at night, when scum chat is open, and didn't start posting for a few hours after subbing in
2. We have quite a bit of hard data already, so there's plenty of prompts to come up with something

But I think Chaqa makes more sense than Neon for that spot. Neon is kind of a "default" pick for me, whereas I can actually see where scum Chaqa fits into the ghug/damo/X/Y team I'm pretty sure we're dealing with.

(I guess I should do due diligence on rdrivera and bozo, but their posting screams town to me.)

The other one almost certainly has to be a lurker or "background" player based on D2 dynamics. I'd been thinking that ghug and damo had to be somewhat stranded near the end of D2, which is why the day was so stagnant. Chaqa is an honorary lurker for that because he was unexpectedly gone for D&D, and I think the final one is probably from that cloth too. I kind of selfishly think it's lfischl because the way he came out of nowhere to vote me (when I was the only viable counterwagon to two scum wagons) was so jarring to me, but admittedly I have no idea how to square Chaqa's insistence that lfischl is town. I guess BK fits the profile too, but he seems less likely than lfischl because he at least had laid a foundation for suspicion of me (however solid that foundation may or may not be). lfischl just blatantly pivoted to the mafia's preferred wagon with no explanation and then dipped, which I can totally see him doing as checked out scum.

this is a case that is following the same pattern as the damo and ghug cases.

I think ghug took it personal at being scumread by me especially. he wanted to convinced me that I was being unfair in how I read his behavior.

not sure damo ever showed any signs of being offended at being scumread

and chaqa flat out told people to just kill him

Yeah those three are fine as part of a team. And TFB is certainly tied to them (well, damo anyway, ghug to a lesser extent, Chaqa not really). I just don’t think it’s as the final teammate

now boat man is tied to people he claims are scum? but boat man sure isn't scum, no sir. definitely not a set up for a pivot!

his early d3 posts are short and boring

cring

It would be especially convenient for a Mafia Princess (nothing personal, pure situational analysis).

Think about it: you inherit a Mafia open position with a heavy suspicion for Lurking attached to it. Normally you'd be under pressure to rectify Swordsman's Super-Lurking by posting a ton. But hey, if we just skip the day, it's like a get-out-of-jail-free card.

yea getting a feel for Neon's alignment is a big incentive for me not to hammer here

my first impression was favorable. but after I sat down this morning and looked over the voting records again, I realized all she actually did was apply some reasonable heuristics to the votes from the position that she's town, which just means that she does competent VCA and means nothing for her alignment

at the same time I can't fault her for looking at >2k posts before she arrived and going "yea lol no"

she's getting solved based on what she does going forward, so shortening the window in which she has to perform = bad

anti-hammering is pro-town apathy

suspicious

i hate these posts from bozo

Since there is such a consensus on damo, he obviously is going to be flipped before the end of the game, but doing it today wastes a very good opportunity for town.

If damo is DKed today, regardless of whether he is mafia or town, if we are about to DK a mafia at D4 EOD, and the doctor is still hidden, as would be preferable, the mafia about to be DKed can claim doctor at EOD and potentially cause us to waste one of our available mis-kills, force the the doctor to counterclaim, or both.

However, if we do not DK damo D3, and we about to DK a mafia at D3 EOD, if they claim doctor, it will redirect the DK to damo, who is either mafia, or a mis-kill that we are going to make eventually anyway.

This takes away a potential opportunity from the mafia.

The downside is that we lose the information we would get from the confirmation of damo's alignment, but I think that can wait until D4.

what about the obvious issue of us running up a townie here and damo actually getting to live another day? are we going to just pretend that we're killing somebody else but then all handshake agree to go back to damo? is the mafia supposed to be even remotely moved by this?

hate this. this reads like a bunch of rationalization for saving damo.

You keep forgetting that you are not supposed to know TFB's alignment yet.

If you are town, I would think that you would also consider that the mafia targeted a TFB voter.

that was in response to the prompt "why would mafia not nk town bozo." the obvious answer is that they see you as a reliable patsy to miskill people after damo flips mafia. since "people" here means me and TFB according to your theory at the time, I know that's at least half right, and it just about has to be totally right (otherwise, if you're town and going after TFB correctly, you probably SHOULD be dead - so the correct answer to "why wasn't town bozo shot" almost has to be "because town bozo is wrong"). I've been townreading Boat since N1ish because I think he wouldn't bus damo D1 in the spot where he accused damo. it makes perfect sense to me.

you didn't even try to read what you quoted in context. this reeks of bad faith

and now you're here trying to BS some reason to keep damo alive for another day when he's obvscum and a question that we all know needs resolving.

welcome to the scum pool

sudden bozo hate? on a day with no possibility of a bozo wagon? so it doesn't matter? now he's forgotten about it and is posting about chaqa is scum again or some shit.

I did not read what you said out of context, what you said was based on the assumption TFB is town.

let's try this again

brain asks: "why did they try to kill me instead of hypothetical town bozo?"

well, after damo and ghug, you are 100% unquestionably wrong about one suspect (me). and I townread the other one (tfb) because I don't think he would have chosen to start pushing his teammate damo when under fire in the way that he did (he went back and looked up past games where damo sorted reads alphabetically instead of in suspicion order).

so to me, answering the hypothetical "bozo is town, why didn't they nk him?" it's a very natural and obvious conclusion that they wrote off ghug and damo as losses, and after that they aren't worried about you, because your tunnels are legendary and they're at least 50% wrong here and i think fairly likely to be 100% wrong.

so I answer accordingly, and your reaction is "abuhhh ur not sposed to KNOW tfb is town!!" when i'm very obviously not speaking from knowledge of his alignment at all. you can't actually think that's what i'm doing. i'm speaking from knowledge of MY alignment, plus a read of tfb's. the context to that answer is abundantly clear and you just ripped it right out of that context. and I'm annoyed by it

As for the first part, yes, I think we can all agree to vote damo as a backup today if we have a doctor claim at EOD, and if not, we can DK damo D4.

so like, what happens if we run up a townie and nigh-confirmed scum damo gets another 72 hours. do you know? because I don't

towns in this community love to find every excuse under the sun not to bury nigh-confirmed scum for whatever reason and it's resulted in plenty of nigh-confirmed scum escaping for far longer than they deserve, and possibly altogether.

72 hours is a lot of time for some other galaxy brain to come up with some other 10000 iq reason not to kill the mafia. hell it's another 72 hours for us to actually catch a different mafia and then fuck up the EOD votes because town is divided on which mafia to kill. it's also another 72 hours of a foregone conclusion which will spike town apathy. and god forbid, I cannot imagine a world where damo is town, but if we're somehow wrong about damo then we would surely love to know THAT 72 hours earlier. I don't consider this last part a meaningful risk, but I figured I'd mention it because it IS possible, however remote.

all this stuff adds up to being a big net negative proposition IMO.

I do want to "keep damo alive for another day", but for a very good reason, and I do not see any way he can harm us D3 as mafia.

What possible scum motivation would I have for delaying a damo DK one day?

I covered this already above, not killing damo is another chance for him to actually escape somehow, town apathy is a real risk, etc. all these things that are downsides to town from this plan are incentives for mafia to do it.

but I have to admit that after trying to write a more coherent answer to your question that it would be pretty fucking wild to come out this brazenly and try to save a teammate. even with those prospective upsides to mafia, the risk of just going down with him is significant. so idk, maybe I was hasty. I still absolutely hate your idea lol.

Also, how can damo be both "obvscum" and "a question that we all know needs resolving"?

I meant "at the chopping block." as in, even setting aside him being obvscum to me and apparently everyone else at this point, there's no way he's getting nightkilled, so we're going to have to flip him.

~~

moved this part to the end so it doesn't get in the way.

I do not dismiss the possibility that you are town and TFB is not, but apparently you do, and that is what I do not understand.

I have functionally dismissed TFB as a plausible mafia suspect if damo is mafia, yes. I think mafia TFB in his position doesn't bother to go dig up past games to prove a tell that he apparently had for damo. this exchange with Bunny felt very sincere to me too:

Does he seem bored? A little.

Does his math suck? A lot

You may be on to something

Precisely! And his alphabetical reads list!

you're obviously welcome to disagree with me, by no stretch do I think this is some ironclad objectively locktown thing like brain claiming to be saved. but I feel pretty strongly about it even acknowledging this. scum TFB could have chosen to behave the way he did wrt scum damo, I just don't think he did.

bozo scumreads after this post: like about 1

Okay so what you do is. You take what Eden said right. Dumb it down about 50% make it sound really disjointed like someone's thoughts and words aren't adding up.

That's my answer.

Alternatively you just read what Eden said since it's the better explained smarter sounding version of what I would say. Thus +1.

How is mis-killing D3 and DKing damo D4 any worse than DKing damo D3 and mis-killing D4?

Do you agree with PE that damo is obviously mafia, yet is also a question that must be resolved today?

If damo is mafia, the other 2 mafia are very likely voting for him to make sure they get their credit for bussing him, or if damo is town, the mafia see him as an easy mis-kill. Either way, I don't think they prefer to wait another day.

Let me put it this way—if we aren’t killing damo today, we better either hit mafia or break the game wide open by whoever flips town. Because if we hit some uninspired town flip that doesn’t break the game wide open then we’re going to be here again, tomorrow, with another uninspired day where people try to galaxy brain their way out of not voting damo. We all KNOW that this is how webDip towns stagnate and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory even in better circumstances than this. I’m blown away that this is even a controversial stance

Plus my doppelgänger already claimed so there’s no longer a reason to fear hitting Doc.

##END

driving town towards the cliff of the damo wagon

how the fuck

what

chat gpt could do better

Big Huge Case Against Chaqa

I decided to review interactions that a specific subset of players had with ghug - the non-BunnyGo voters. I started with the assumption that not all four mafia voted for BunnyGo, which is admittedly an arbitrary assumption, but not an unfair one given past behavior of mafia teams. Then, removing people I know to be town, I'm left with this list:

- swordsman -> Neon
- Chaqa
- rdrivera2005
- bozotheclown

I removed Neon from consideration for two reasons.
(1) She's either Doctor or lying about it (which under the circumstances = scum, IMO; call it "bait" all you wish, but I see no method by which such a claim could actually bait anything when she did it). If she's lying about it, the real Doctor will eventually reveal. If she's not lying about it, she's town and I don't have to care anymore.
(2) swordsman and Neon literally did not interact with ghug at all. Neon literally could not have interacted with ghug as she subbed in after ghug died. So even if swordsman had interacted with Neon, Neon wouldn't be able to do anything useful to explain any interesting interactions in either direction. Pointless.

That obviously leaves Chaqa, rdrivera, and bozo.

Bozo is the least likely scum of that pool based on his comparatively extensive interactions with ghug during the night phase. I can't be assed to actually quote anything because there's so many posts, but if you go back and look at N1 in particular, you'll see bozo very extensively questioning ghug about vote progression near the end of D1 (final 30 mins especially), when ghug was shifting wagons around for reasons still unknown to me. That final 30 minute window is a very odd time for scum buddies to be extensively interacting IMO. Not impossible, just doesn't strike me as intuitive, because scum buddies would generally realize they need to interact earlier in the phase than that and probably would have orchestrated something earlier. Plus, it's not like bozo gave ghug any off-ramps. If bozo bussed ghug then it was a very committed push very early, which is unlike bozo's M.O. in my recollection.

rdrivera actually had more extensive interaction with ghug than Chaqa did, despite Chaqa lapping rdrivera in posts several times over. Both players had opposite progressions on ghug - rdrivera started out softly townreading ghug D1 but transitioned to suspicion by N1 and ultimately voted ghug out D2. You could argue that this was the result of a premeditated bus, but that seems difficult to square with the knowledge that damo is town, because surely it would have been easier for rdrivera to just lay off the gas. Meanwhile, Chaqa starts out shading ghug D1 but then transitions to a townread by D2 with no specific desire to stop ghug's wagon. Chaqa ultimately lands on damo. I think this is much more indicative of a bus as it becomes less committal over time. I also selfishly know I'm town and thus that ghug was the only mafia wagon available near EOD2, so Chaqa might have felt uncertain that ghug was going to survive and might have wanted to avoid overextending to save ghug, instead just opting to quietly vote the better town counterwagon and hope that that's enough.

Which it almost was, until the final minute, where literally every person who didn't vote BunnyGo D1 + hasn't claimed Doctor elected to vote ghug off, except Chaqa.

TLDR Chaqa's dancing with ghug looks far more like the part of a scum buddy than anyone else who is outside the D1 BunnyGo voters, so if you think the assumption that not all 4 mafia voted BunnyGo D1 is true, Chaqa is scum

op, back to scumreading chaqa! lame fucking case, as chaqa has already pointed out. what a guy. what a case. what a lame thing to do

POE Pool

in preference order, and subject to change contingent upon completion of review

Not Killing Ever, Bar Insane Shenanigans
President Eden
brainbomb
Princess Neon

Unconfirmed Town
KoalaAttack
bozotheclown
rdrivera2005

Null
BK3K
Bonatogether
TheFlyingBoat

lfischl
lfischl

Scum
Chaqa

i thought i was basically clear? How did I get to null from 'basically clear'? perhaps if i massively scumslipped, i could be moved to scummy, but to move me to null? that doesn't seem like a natural progression.





TL;DR for you nerds

eden is scum for changing reads every phase change, for openly communicating with ghug in the thread, for making big cases and then failing to stick to his guns, and for being unable to keep a consistent read on me.

also i like fischy

[Bonatogether]

you can thank me later for posting like a 6th of eden's iso into the thread

[Bonatogether]

why is no one around

[Bonatogether]

[KoalaAttack]

I did a VCA for D1 since that's the cool thing to do. Since this is my first VCA, I just focused on the actions of one-known-Mafia ghug – who luckily is an experienced Mafia so we can probably assume was very intentional about his votes:

01:54 Pre dam➙Bon 4 Bon 4 Cha 3 The 1 lfi
01:20 ghu Bon➙dam 4 Cha 3 Bon 3 The 2 dam
...
00:50 Pre Bon➙Cha 4 Cha 3 The 2 dam 2 Bon
00:49 ghu dam➙Bon 4 Cha 3 Bon 3 The 1 lfi
...
00:50 Pre Bon➙Cha 4 Cha 3 The 2 dam 2 Bon
00:21 ghu Bon➙dam 5 Bon 3 The 3 dam 2 Cha
00:20 Bun Bon➙dam 4 Bon 4 dam 3 The 2 Cha
00:13 ghu dam➙Bun 4 Bon 3 The 3 dam 2 Cha
...
00:06 dam Bon➙Bun 5 Bun 3 Bon 3 dam 2 The
00:06 ghu Bun➙Bon 4 Bon 4 Bun 3 dam 2 The
...
00:01 lfi Cha➙Bun 8 Bun 4 Bon 3 The
00:01 ghu Bon➙Bun 9 Bun 3 The 3 Bon


Two things that jumped out at me both have to do with President Eden:

(1) ghu really likes to change the vote right after Pre changes the vote earlier in the day – is this normal or Suspicious?

(2) since a lot of folks have been talking about ghug pushing Bona – it was Pre vote that put Bona at 6 votes first, and then ghu decided to back off Bona and go to Damo instead – not sure what to make of this?

[Bonatogether]

koala's post hits hard

[KoalaAttack]

Sorry I copy/pasted wrong line, it was meant to be:

01:54 Pre dam➙Bon 4 Bon 4 Cha 3 The 1 lfi
01:20 ghu Bon➙dam 4 Cha 3 Bon 3 The 2 dam
...
00:50 Pre Bon➙Cha 4 Cha 3 The 2 dam 2 Bon
00:49 ghu dam➙Bon 4 Cha 3 Bon 3 The 1 lfi
...
00:22 Pre Cha➙Bon 6 Bon 3 The 2 Cha 2 dam
00:21 ghu Bon➙dam 5 Bon 3 The 3 dam 2 Cha
00:20 Bun Bon➙dam 4 Bon 4 dam 3 The 2 Cha
00:13 ghu dam➙Bun 4 Bon 3 The 3 dam 2 Cha
...
00:06 dam Bon➙Bun 5 Bun 3 Bon 3 dam 2 The
00:06 ghu Bun➙Bon 4 Bon 4 Bun 3 dam 2 The
...
00:01 lfi Cha➙Bun 8 Bun 4 Bon 3 The
00:01 ghu Bon➙Bun 9 Bun 3 The 3 Bon

[KoalaAttack]

Ask:

This game needs a seriousness-meter of some sort for new players in the group.

And you shall receive:

Have i not sussed you every single day night cycle.
The only person to blame is Bunny

d1 you didn't
hence the joke that you were put up to it in scum chat by some asshole who didn't warn you what might happen

Don't you remember telling me in scum to pick a fake fight with you today?
Oops, did i type that out loud?
In seriousness, what on earth might happen? I have no idea what you mean by that lol
[P.s. koala this is all a joke]

I absolutely approve of this disclaimer – coming around full circle on BK3K here

[KoalaAttack]

I miss day 1 where we only shit post

OK never mind :)

[President Eden]

POE Pool

in preference order, and subject to change contingent upon completion of review

Not Killing Ever, Bar Insane Shenanigans
President Eden
brainbomb
Princess Neon

Unconfirmed Town
KoalaAttack
bozotheclown
rdrivera2005

Null
BK3K
Bonatogether
TheFlyingBoat

lfischl
lfischl

Scum
Chaqa

You are giving entirely too much town cred to both Neon and Koala

If Neon is the Doc then no, I'm not. If Neon is not the Doc then it's self resolving and this can obviously change with it.

In hindsight, I'm having a lot of difficulty not seeing ghug's and your posting around The Cussenin' as anything but opportunistic scum seeking a miskill to save ghug. You're not even contesting (here anyway) me having you as my top scumread, obviously you can't contest ghug being mafia - what exactly does that leave, you two picking on a teammate instead of ignoring it?

This case really isn't that impressive, and there's nothing linking me to ghug except the fact we didn't vote for Bunny on Day 1. In fact, I've highlighted in yellow the only part of that post that actually links me to ghug.

This doesn't seem like good-faith analysis to me.

Yeah the title could have used an edit, oh well. I'm surprised you didn't bother calling out the factual error about your vote...

Dismissing it as not good faith analysis is a pretty handwavey and weak response though. I'm not even sure how to respond to that allegation since I have no idea what part of it you think is bad faith. I made an assumption about the game state that I think is sensible based on past mafia behavior which let me narrow down the people I was reviewing, and your behavior stood out most negatively of those people in pretty runaway fashion.

TL;DR for you nerds

eden is scum for changing reads every phase change, for openly communicating with ghug in the thread, for making big cases and then failing to stick to his guns, and for being unable to keep a consistent read on me.

also i like fischy

Just for full disclosure, I don't remember exactly when I decided to skip to the TLDR, but I definitely didn't read all this.

- Changing reads every phase isn't scummy, and I'm not even sure that I did this anyway. My scum suspects were pretty clearly expressed from N1 til now, when new data falsified my theory. My town reads might have fluctuated more, but without having done a detailed review of all things Eden, I would bet a lot of money that that's pretty normal for me, and normal for most players, too.
- I guess I have to reread what you actually said about me and ghug "communicating openly" or whatever because I don't know what you mean by this. Unfortunately you made the post virtually unreadably long so I can't promise I'll actually do that.
- I stuck to my guns pretty hard within the duo of damo and ghug, who were the two people I cased N1. If anything I think I have been better about sticking to my guns than normal, because I am notorious for letting mafia off the hook. I'm pretty disappointed in myself for not seeing warning signs with damo, but it's not too surprising that that happened after I made an effort to stay on-task more than I usually do. I definitely went back and forth within that duo, but I suspected both of them, so who cares? When presented with the choice between the scum and the town in that group, I killed the scum.
- Why would I be expected to have a consistent read on you when your own play hasn't warranted it? You go back and forth between straight up not being in the thread, to being here and not doing anything, to dropping massive unreadable wall bombs like this. The first one is just unlike you as either alignment, the second one is typical of scum you, the last is typical of town you. I have a sneaking feeling this is the actual reason for your interest and that you decided to make everything else fit your angst at not being townread when on balance you don't deserve to be

[BK3K]

After i expressed suspicion on Eden, bona posted a novel that i refuse to read in full against Eden. Koala also posts Eden evidence. My thought is, are these legit? Or are these posts trying to sway me to a MK direction

Other townies weigh in. If you're scum, you're not allowed to reply. Or else I'll do to you whatever Eden threatened to do to me (still unclear).

Thanks!
Brian

[KoalaAttack]

<THE LONGEST POST IN HISTORY OF HUMNAKIND>

TL;DR for you nerds

eden is scum for changing reads every phase change, for openly communicating with ghug in the thread, for making big cases and then failing to stick to his guns, and for being unable to keep a consistent read on me.

also i like fischy

I have 2 thoughts:

(1) What ... the ... hell? ... Bona went from spamming a myriad posts to posting The Mother of All Wallposts

(2) I will be honest and confess that I did not read the entire War & Peace – The Sequel. I feel slightly bad, because I have literally read every single post in this game so far – including the "koalakoalakoala" level spam – from Bona ... But I just couldn't bring myself to do this one. So I only read the bit highlighted in Red and the TLDR.

But the bit highlighted in red is admittedly a bit Suspicious! It's like the same sentiment I have against Chaqa's jokes to be Mafia – though admittedly this is much less blatant and brazen compared to Chaqa's case.

[President Eden]

I did a VCA for D1 since that's the cool thing to do. Since this is my first VCA, I just focused on the actions of one-known-Mafia ghug – who luckily is an experienced Mafia so we can probably assume was very intentional about his votes:

01:54 Pre dam➙Bon 4 Bon 4 Cha 3 The 1 lfi
01:20 ghu Bon➙dam 4 Cha 3 Bon 3 The 2 dam
...
00:50 Pre Bon➙Cha 4 Cha 3 The 2 dam 2 Bon
00:49 ghu dam➙Bon 4 Cha 3 Bon 3 The 1 lfi
...
00:50 Pre Bon➙Cha 4 Cha 3 The 2 dam 2 Bon
00:21 ghu Bon➙dam 5 Bon 3 The 3 dam 2 Cha
00:20 Bun Bon➙dam 4 Bon 4 dam 3 The 2 Cha
00:13 ghu dam➙Bun 4 Bon 3 The 3 dam 2 Cha
...
00:06 dam Bon➙Bun 5 Bun 3 Bon 3 dam 2 The
00:06 ghu Bun➙Bon 4 Bon 4 Bun 3 dam 2 The
...
00:01 lfi Cha➙Bun 8 Bun 4 Bon 3 The
00:01 ghu Bon➙Bun 9 Bun 3 The 3 Bon


Two things that jumped out at me both have to do with President Eden:

(1) ghu really likes to change the vote right after Pre changes the vote earlier in the day – is this normal or Suspicious?

(2) since a lot of folks have been talking about ghug pushing Bona – it was Pre vote that put Bona at 6 votes first, and then ghu decided to back off Bona and go to Damo instead – not sure what to make of this?

(1) I'm still pretty sure ghug was trying to save somebody D1. I can't work out another rationale for him openly shopping for wagons seemingly at random otherwise. I guess there's nothing that says he couldn't have just been fucking with all of us while we were never considering any scum, but we had ~30% of the player base as viable wagons near EOD1 if memory serves (Bunny, Boat, Bona, Chaqa, damo), which as we all know from very fuzzy math done D1 is some high % to have a scum in it.
Before waking up from a nap (I am so fucked for tomorrow) I would have said Chaqa, but now I'm starting to wonder about Bona, because if you told me scum decided they want me as a miskill and Bona is scum, then scum Bona dropping a massive wall he knows no one will read with questionable reasons for suspecting me is exactly what I would have thought would happen.

I also kind of feel personally targeted in that ghug totally would just chaotically shift votes in reaction to me just to fuck with me. But I don't know what actual mafia motivation that would serve, it would just be malicious trolling. So I'm not really married to that idea. But it's possible!

(2) That's an interesting observation. I need to review Bona/Boat/BK still (and I guess you, to be thorough, but I don't suspect you).

[President Eden]

I went back and looked for the part highlighted in red, started reading up, became convinced that Bona decided he needs to scumread me for whatever reason and then stopped reading because he's obviously forcing every post I've ever made to fit his narrative.

You should stop reading it too

[BK3K]

I did a VCA for D1 since that's the cool thing to do. Since this is my first VCA, I just focused on the actions of one-known-Mafia ghug – who luckily is an experienced Mafia so we can probably assume was very intentional about his votes:

01:54 Pre dam➙Bon 4 Bon 4 Cha 3 The 1 lfi
01:20 ghu Bon➙dam 4 Cha 3 Bon 3 The 2 dam
...
00:50 Pre Bon➙Cha 4 Cha 3 The 2 dam 2 Bon
00:49 ghu dam➙Bon 4 Cha 3 Bon 3 The 1 lfi
...
00:50 Pre Bon➙Cha 4 Cha 3 The 2 dam 2 Bon
00:21 ghu Bon➙dam 5 Bon 3 The 3 dam 2 Cha
00:20 Bun Bon➙dam 4 Bon 4 dam 3 The 2 Cha
00:13 ghu dam➙Bun 4 Bon 3 The 3 dam 2 Cha
...
00:06 dam Bon➙Bun 5 Bun 3 Bon 3 dam 2 The
00:06 ghu Bun➙Bon 4 Bon 4 Bun 3 dam 2 The
...
00:01 lfi Cha➙Bun 8 Bun 4 Bon 3 The
00:01 ghu Bon➙Bun 9 Bun 3 The 3 Bon


Two things that jumped out at me both have to do with President Eden:

(1) ghu really likes to change the vote right after Pre changes the vote earlier in the day – is this normal or Suspicious?

(2) since a lot of folks have been talking about ghug pushing Bona – it was Pre vote that put Bona at 6 votes first, and then ghu decided to back off Bona and go to Damo instead – not sure what to make of this?

(1) I'm still pretty sure ghug was trying to save somebody D1. I can't work out another rationale for him openly shopping for wagons seemingly at random otherwise. I guess there's nothing that says he couldn't have just been fucking with all of us while we were never considering any scum, but we had ~30% of the player base as viable wagons near EOD1 if memory serves (Bunny, Boat, Bona, Chaqa, damo), which as we all know from very fuzzy math done D1 is some high % to have a scum in it.
Before waking up from a nap (I am so fucked for tomorrow) I would have said Chaqa, but now I'm starting to wonder about Bona, because if you told me scum decided they want me as a miskill and Bona is scum, then scum Bona dropping a massive wall he knows no one will read with questionable reasons for suspecting me is exactly what I would have thought would happen.

I also kind of feel personally targeted in that ghug totally would just chaotically shift votes in reaction to me just to fuck with me. But I don't know what actual mafia motivation that would serve, it would just be malicious trolling. So I'm not really married to that idea. But it's possible!

(2) That's an interesting observation. I need to review Bona/Boat/BK still (and I guess you, to be thorough, but I don't suspect you).

You're on the B-train now?