M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[damo666]

##CALL GM can the night be ended early? I want to know if I can plan a post at EON or not

I will not pm the GM to hammer this night so you plan your msg for standard EON.

[pyxxy]

however, if you continue to tunnel town me and lose the game because of it, that will be entirely your fault

Let someone else talk me out of it.

why do you need reinforcement from someone else

i'm right here and you can talk to me

if you are town, try to actually find me as town rather than being a tunneler. i don't actually think it's that hard at all

or are you just going to keep sticking to your theory because you want to be right and you're scared of looking foolish if you let me go

Because I just watched you convince everyone to kill a townie who prior to your efforts had been in your paraphrased words "pretty broadly town read".

I want to hear from everyone besides you before you get another turn. I spent all day yesterday talking with you, or maybe just at you, and afaik it got sabi killed.

Just give me space and talk to me later/tomorrow irl. I'm not hammering night.

[pyxxy]

anyway it's pretty clear how I feel about you and you're not going to change that

I should probably go read the thread and see if anyone talked about why you're so towny now

I want to hear the most from @damo and @celaph about what just happened

I cleared Wolfu in my head due to day 1 votes and his case on Sabi was reasonable so I voted Sabi.

Now I'm not sure about anything.

I quoted it your point about D1 VCA clearing wolfu is the best thing I've seen so far. Maybe I'm putting too much stock into VCA.

[pyxxy]

I specifically said I wasn’t going to vote until late to avoid hammering the day, and yet I get the opportunity to hammer again because someone wants to put it in my hands anyway. Obviously I’m trying to discourage hammering, but no one else seems to have an issue with it. It’s just amusing.

The angst in this thread is far too much for any of us to be effective and we all need to use the night to stop being at each other’s throats and come ready to go with something useful when the night ends.

Sorry. You're really just talking about me. I'll leave and be back tonight or tomorrow morning irl.

[bo_sox48]

I’m definitely not just talking about you lol, I have no patience left as wolfu has so aptly pointed out and need the break too.

[damo666]

I specifically said I wasn’t going to vote until late to avoid hammering the day, and yet I get the opportunity to hammer again because someone wants to put it in my hands anyway. Obviously I’m trying to discourage hammering, but no one else seems to have an issue with it. It’s just amusing.

The angst in this thread is far too much for any of us to be effective and we all need to use the night to stop being at each other’s throats and come ready to go with something useful when the night ends.

I don't think I'll post during the night unless I have a blinding revelation.

[wolfu]

Because I just watched you convince everyone to kill a townie who prior to your efforts had been in your paraphrased words "pretty broadly town read".

I want to hear from everyone besides you before you get another turn. I spent all day yesterday talking with you, or maybe just at you, and afaik it got sabi killed.

Just give me space and talk to me later/tomorrow irl. I'm not hammering night.

i mean to be clear i do not think it is your fault we were wrong, that is on me and i am not blaming you

i took a shot, i was wrong. it happens.


but as far as i know, we have one try left to get it right so i can't allow myself to get miskilled


however it's fine i'll leave you alone and give you space

[wolfu]

and realistically i think discussion during this night is probably not helpful unless someone is sure they have the answer and can lay out a strong case

as it is i'm really not sure and i don't think me making arguments here would be...likely to be persuasive

i can see an argument for it being anyone and i'd rather wait to see who dies and not give the mafia clues as to what i'm thinking

[pyxxy]

*waves*
not missing the deadline this time

[bo_sox48]

Hopefully I disabled the character limit on this forum.

Ladies and gentlefolk, allow me to solve the game for you. Pyxxy is the bard.

First of all, how I derived the role:

Roles that I 100% would not pick:
- Cleric (if you survive a DK, you just die the next day, right? )
- Paladin (M75 showed how powerful solving is, why give town something to solve?)
- Warlock (this took me a while to figure but like there's no cop so why have a GF?)

the alternating night crooked cops also seem bad but maybe I'm missing something?

Roles that I 100% would pick:
- Rogue (Day Vig)

Positive opinion:
- Barbarian
- Bard
- Ranger (Tracker)

Neutral opinion:
- Druid (Universal Backup), never heard of this before, the mafiascum wiki only really talks about it as a town power so no idea how to judge it
- Fighter (Strongman), but moves to positive if Chaqa/GM says that it beats the protection item thingy

Negative opinion:
- Monk (Jailor), maybe I don't understand jailing, it's roleblock + untargetable, right? just doesn't seem that relevant to this setup? if scum wanted a roleblock power, just pick Bard because Bard can be used every night not just twice ever?

if we throw away all the context and just force me to give an answer:

pyxxy: Rogue/Bard/Barbarian/Ranger

Damn good guesses.

Rumi = rogue
RHK = barbarian
Bona = ranger
……. = bard

…they weren’t guesses.

So why is there no backup?

Oh wait I messed this up then.

I'm biased now because now I've seen what everyone else thinks. Clearly I'm missing something about the backup.

pyxxy's "what I would have picked as mafia" before reading, a guesstimate, also you all see to hate using the role names so I'll stop to I guess :

day vig, roleblock, vengeful(?) (the Barbarian), tracker

pyxxy's "what I think mafia picked, trying to not be biased even though I've read a bunch of people's answers now":

day vig, roleblock, seems like everyone loves the backup so universal backup, and tracker

That’s why!

Anyway, on to the fun stuff.

Let me lay out a scenario for you where we are all at each other’s throats, trying in vain to find things that kinda sorta look scummy because we’re at a loss with no smoking guns, there are no mechanical eliminations for us to pedal off of anymore, and we are with our backs against the wall. This scenario involves three characters - brainbomb, RHK, and pyxxy. In this scenario, pyxxy leads off our story with a simple request for clarification on some of the mechanics, and gets answers.

Saw that people started posting their supposed role picks so I stopped reading the thread to go read the setup

Some questions that came up during my reading:

##CALL GM

1) Is the google doc supposed to say "during either the day phase or the night phase", italics+underline are my theorized addition, for the Inventor's magic missile wand?

aka is it a day vig item power or nah?

2) Does the Periapt protect against even a strongman kill?

3) "Detect Magic" says vanilla vs non-vanilla. Are all scum roles considered non-vanilla? Even Druid pre-transformation?

ty in advance mr chaqa gm sir

1. Yes, my bad there.
2. No, it does not.
3. All scum roles are considered “not vanilla” except the Warlock

Wrote all this in a tab before N1 so as not to distract from more pertinent D1 conversations. Maybe I shouldn't be posting it right away but whatever. I don't mind if people ignore this for now, I'll just bump the topic later in the night.

---

Chaqa's answer for #3 makes me want to have a discussion about the Inventor handing out the scan before the gun.

Gun has a [number to be put here after D1+N1+D2 flips] / 14 (unless a town PR save or mafia shenanigans happen) of shooting scum. We can't know this number yet but it's probably between 20-40%, I think?

But if Inventor gives the scan out right away, it's the same chance of giving it to scum, which I think is less bad for the same odds of wrongly shooting a townie?

And if we get lucky and give it to town, then they can scan N2 and we potentially get info D3 which is the fastest possible.

The risk is scanning doc/joat/commuter -> townie scans doc/joat/commuter -> townie outs doc/joat/commuter. And I writing this before the D1 flip so we have to consider that flip and the resulting odds.

But if it's D3, that's also a lot of time. And maybe the other roles can protected the outed one? Anyway I think there's a discussion to be had here.

---

I wrote the above before darg claimed crumbing, writing this at the beginning of N1 before darg explains it.

Also wrote this before we fucking killed the doc lmao. But this means we should almost certainly be giving out the scan tonight. Odds of non-vanilla => scum are even better now.

Pyxxy is leading the charge to try and direct the remaining PR traffic we have. At this point, our doctor was already dead and our sorcerer was already outed - which pyxxy knew, though the rest of us didn’t - so there’s some risk and some reward to convincing the inventor to give away arguably his most powerful item early. The risk, obviously, is that it falls in the wrong hands. The reward is that it falls into the right hands, from the mafia’s point of view. And it’s a risk worth taking because, after all, any inventor worth their salt is going to give out the scan first.

Our second character, brainbomb, is introduced here. This pyxxy player is widely townread, and playing well, through the end of night 1, and they have put a significant amount of thought into how to maximize brainbomb’s potential as the inventor. So why not make pyxxy’s hope reality? It is a sensible thing to do. Brainbomb gifts pyxxy with a scan. And promptly dies.

Let’s fast forward to day 3 and introduce our newest character, RHK. RHK is a martyr, and in an act of desperation he claims commuter. You probably recall:

Fuck it. I was always terrible at secrets.

I hardclaim commuter.

Brain gave me a scan N1

I have a red on bozo

##Vote bozo

Surprise! There’s actually a fourth character, the commuter! They did not counter, and that’s their only role in this story. I won’t reveal who they are, but it really isn’t hard to figure out at this point.

Anyway, pyxxy’s reaction to RHK’s claim is far from ambivalent. To refresh your memory:

I'm caught up from where I got pissed off and went and watch youtube for the rest of the flight.

It's past 2:00am for me (later addition: when I started writing this) and I've been awake for almost 20 hours. So I'm not confident. But this game is already such a shit show that if this is a mistake then so be it. Also I half expected to be shot by now. But I think scum is still holding out hope that the real commuter cc's Demon.

Brain gave me the scan (scrying stone) N1 and I scanned Demon N2 and he's guilty as fuck.
(later addition: actually I had to double check my pm, and it doesn't say who I got it from, just describes the item. more on this near the bottom of this post)

There's no way Rumi+scum guesses that raw so I can't believe how fucking lucky they are to track+shoot Inventor N1.

It all makes so much fucking sense why Demon was fishing N2 for someone to claim getting a gun from brain. They knew I had something and wanted to see if I would flinch. Once they saw that N2 ended without me claiming the gun and also without shooting anyone N2, they correctly assumed that I had the scan so Rumi shot darg and then got modkilled to refresh the power. Which again, that's fucked up and a clear abuse of the rules. Like, I hope you're okay Rumi, but I don't know what to believe.

Demon has been openly scumming or whatever the right word is. He's fucking scum. He's been pushing the scum agenda this whole time. Bluster, vitriol, clogging the thread, etc. I'm convinced he's vengeful. It's the obvious explanation for his entire game.

I don't have the brain power rn to make sense of Rumi's post in its entirety. Eg I don't know why Rumi reveals that scum picked tracker. Granted they don't know for sure if I scanned last night, nor if I scanned a town or scum person, nor if/when I would reveal the result.

My gut tells me that it was a play at the subconscious, to get us to think that this was all planned because Demon was the tracker and was going to die first and scum of course doesn't want their backup to become a tracker especially when 3 out of 4 town PRs will be dead (after Rumi shots darg) meaning the role would be pretty useless and so wow it would be so safe and easy to vote Demon. off today without giving it critical thought. This also factors into why I'm convinced that Demon is vengeful. Demon's and Rumi's behavior just makes way more sense if this is all true.

I think this basically town clears bozo. I got the scan, not Demon, so that's all bullshit.

(this is my oh shit realization section, it's 2:41am and I just thought about this)
Okay I went back through bozo's scenario list and here's the thing. Bozo I'll need you to double check this because god I'm so fucking tired. I think it's mechanically possible that I was given the fake scan item. I don't think I can rule it out. The pm doesn't say who I got it from and the rules explain that the fake item will be named exactly the same, except it will always return guilty. On top of this I spent a good bit of N1 arguing that scan should be handed out first, so scum would know that I would be eager and receptive getting it N1.

And I'm taking Rumi at her word when we know that she lied about her role. Why am I doing that? There's not actually any proof that there is a tracker. I'm the one reading into her lies. And then she sets up Demon for the miskill? And it's just bad luck that I scanned Demon? I guess I gave some hints that I was interested in a Damo and Demon scum pair, and I had moved past wanting to deal with bo. Maybe scum just wanted me to report on my scan asap no matter what. Either it nets a miskill or I get miskilled or both.

I think I need to just stop this is all getting to be and it's almost 3am and I gotta work tomorrow. My last thought I was going to say before I had the fake scan realization is that I would love to call Neon's bluff. It just feels like a bluff to me. Feels wrong. I don't trust it. The frustration feels real but the reasoning for it falls flat. That's all for now. I don't know when I'll be back.

In this scenario, Pyxxy’s alternative reality is a world where the entire scumteam thinks only about what they do or do not have and where everything is a big conspiracy. This is what got my mind racing. “They knew I had something” - how? Thinking that Rumi intentionally got modkilled in order to die before the tracker… who may or may not exist to the rest of us… and doing so in tandem with the vengeful outing. That’s 2 scum for 2 town. No town PRs guaranteed. What is this logic?

It doesn’t matter, so I digress. What matters is that in this scenario, the scumteam is not actually brainless - they did not sacrifice one of them for a VT - but actually they’re quite genius. How convenient it is that pyxxy got a scan … on Demon? What a stunning turn of events. On the face of it it is so favorable for the town that nobody would dare question it. RHK is scum, outed. Pyxxy is most certainly town as no scum would ever condemn their teammate to a certain death. Bozo is almost certainly town because why in the world would RHK try to get their own teammate killed? The commuter can safely refrain from claiming their role at any point in the near future since RHK’s claim is refuted without their involvement. The town, coming off a surprising modkill that handicapped the mafia in a way they probably didn’t expect or deserve, is actually in a favorable position with this turn of events for the first time in this game.

Well… maybe not. Here’s why this actually favors the scumteam:

• RHK is the vengeful. RHK has to die. I doubt the expectation was that some idiot named bo_sox48 would actually kill him right away, but the fact of the matter is that he is confirmed scum and has to die at some point. This is fulfilling his role, and is really not a major detriment to the scumteam.
• The focus is taken away from Bona, who had been on the block and as we now know saved on day 1 and still in the mix on day 2 even if only peaking with 24 hours to go in the day. Bona is not terribly valuable as the tracker but this is a numbers game and the scumteam needs their two strongest players to survive.
• The scumteam establishes a deep threat. Having missed an opportunity to send one of their players lurking in the shadows from early on they need one. Nobody will be brave enough to kill pyxxy over any other reasonable option in the remotely near future. Realistically this includes now! But I’m ruining that.

Convinced? Great. Not convinced? Keep reading.

—

This scenario ends with three scumteam members dead - none of the three ever bussed pyxxy - and one remaining player, orchestrating miskills with clever nightkills and driving discussion while not actively leading it, survives. This remaining player should be an obvious nightkill as, again, nobody will be brave enough to kill pyxxy over any other reasonable option in the remotely near future. But alas this player is the last remaining member of the mafia team and a nightkill is not in their future. Which explains why pyxxy, who we have all completely ignored as a suspect for several days now, is still alive.

—

On the topic of saving Bona, pyxxy never voted for Bona on day 1. In fact, pyxxy never mentioned Bona on day 1. Pyxxy posted 32 times on day 1 and pushed the worcej wagon over the Bona wagon by making it 4-3 with 3 minutes to go in the phase. The following night phase, pyxxy has this to say:

As I said earlier, the other wagons weren’t satisfactory to me, and brain seems scum. Lots of OMGUS, I admit. But a bit more, I already wrote about that.

As the day went on, and the EoD approached, and I was busy cooking for a crowd, I decided I would crumb… big and obvious, to me. I particularly thought brain, fellow Comic Guy, would notice the reference to Stephen Strange, Sorceror Supreme (and not a doctor. I would have gone Doc Holiday there… although wasn’t he a dentist?)

Sucks that you had to clarify but ty for clarifying.

I don't like how Bona tried to get you to claim a specific role before EOD, although I agree with the sentiment at the time that you were somewhat vaguely claiming a crumb.

That said, rdr makes a good point where maybe Bona was behind / trying to stay current, see: all the posts he made after night started.

I'm neutral with a light scumlean on Bona.

This post contains a lot of knowledge of Bona’s actions without ever uttering their name prior to this post. It includes actions Bona took during EOD1, when pyxxy was online and obviously paying attention. But pyxxy voted worcej instead. Here is pyxxy’s rationale for voting worcej:

I'll vote worcej for now to avoid missing EOD and doing my last second shit again

I haven't given worcej much thought so yes I am sheeping other people here, I find worcej neutral but certainly within scumrange

##VOTE worcej

Not as much conviction as I’d like to see for someone who had a scumread of their own that should supersede “sheeping other people here.” But Bona is a teammate and was saved, as we all know, and all three scum teammates were participating in the effort to keep their tracker alive.

(As an aside, wolfu, that tidbit is for you. The “but someone else said” qualifier during a read on a teammate lives on.)

—

Regarding RHK, pyxxy makes it clear on multiple occasions before RHK’s fake claim that if RHK is scum, they believe damo to be a scum teammate. One example:

Every wagon on D2 that reached 3 votes at some point, chronologically:

Tom: HR, Neon, wolfu
bozo: me (pyxxy), darg, and rdr
No-Vote: bozo, rumi, sabi
Tom wagon part 2: Neon rejoins, HR still there, this time wolfu flakes for the...
bozo wagon part 2: darg, rdr, wolfu
wolfu wagon: Bona, demon, ike
Tom wagon part 3 (the one that kills him): bozo returns from No-Vote

Idk what I'm looking for here but bozo did inspire me re: meaningless votes or people that seem to have avoided ending on town (confirmed after death).

That list might be:
- bo, for not voting (after seeing that rumi "got away with it", I might add)
- damo, voting for rdr
- demon, voting for ike
- me (pyxxy), voting for bo

I'm biasing myself again but I really dislike how this makes damo and demon look.

HR is politely telling me to lay off bo and I'm me pyxxy the townie so that leaves...those two.

i should also say: people should probably ease up on the hero solve try to guess the whole team by finding associations stuff

because, in general, you are incredibly likely to be wrong on those things

it is much harder by numbers to guess a pairing correctly than to catch a single scum

there will be dozens of incidental interactions between two players that are going to look like they could be a team but they will both be town


for now i would like to simply focus on finding a single scum, because we haven't gotten one yet


that's not to say you can't have multiple scumreads but i think they should be based on more than how two people interacted toward one another

One of my methods is to identify pairing that cannot BOTH be mafia. Works well

Sure would be awkward if one of the ways town makes a come back in this game is the inverse of this e.g. finding out you and demon are a scum pairing.

Day 3 goes by, and RHK is revealed and dies. Moving into day 4, pyxxy is still on the damo-RHK teammate train:

The problem continues to be, flipping bo does nothing for finding the other scum. We have to get it right today. So this post is me trying to let go of my frustration with bo's play and put him as a future DK. If damo flips scum, as I expect him to, I would vote bo next, because I could see bo being set up as the long term lurker for scum team during N0.

Around 24 hours into the day, mentions of damo dry up and mentions of Bona become far more frequent. Both wagons are tied at 2-2.

All remaining town should consider which two players they would vote for next if today is a miskill. This particularly applies to those voting me.

If Bona flips town (unlikely imo) I think my next vote would be Wolfu or Ike.

Maybe I missed this. Who would you vote for if Bona flips scum?

Actually maybe this is just a good question for everyone to answer.

If Bona flips town, your next vote(s) would be:
If Bona flips scum, your next vote(s) would be:

For me, if Bona is town, then I would feel like I've been played by damo, and would vote damo.

If Bona is scum, then I would feel like I've been played by Bona, and would kick his corpse >:( but I wouldn't have a great next vote. I would want to see the NK first (if I'm not it).

Maybe I would have to reconsider Sabi at that point because of them insta-voting damo at the SOD. Respect to Bona for at least holding his vote a little, although maybe it's just OMGUS between the two of them.

This post illustrates the changing tone. Nothing has happened to generate a Bona scumread over damo, which pyxxy was overtly certain about when RHK died. Nevertheless, incoming is pyxxy’s self-proclaimed wall post, where they discuss Bona’s play but generally do not criticize him and avoids explicitly scumreading him:

I gotta decide on dinner and then cook it so I'll be gone for a while.

Things that are on my mind:

1) Is trying to find a scumpair really that useful if one of bo/Ike has been lurking?

2) gonna re-read Bona and damo

3) maybe just revisit D1 through N2 e.g. who besides bozo was pushing the Tom wagon? why did damo end on rdr and does it make sense?

4) Bona promised us VCA on damo, @Bona I would love if I could get a deadline for that so that I know you won't just drag out an empty promise

5) Ike didn't post D3 or N3 (keep in mind D3 was ~24 hours because of the demon hammer), no idea what he thinks about any of this

6) Need to compare Neon's and Bozo's scumreads now that we know they're both town but they didn't know each other was town

7) I feel like I'm softening on wolfu but maybe it's because they're the only person who seems to respond to my ideas aka not for a good reason

8) no shot this is scum rdr playing his greatest game ever right?

(this quote is edited for convenience)

1) No, not useful to find a scumpair, even swapping rdr for Ike in this hypothetical. The lurker has lurked well since basically nobody seems to have a good lurker read from what I can tell rn?

2) Bona D1:
- fights with town!Neon about her town and scum games being indistinguishable
- says bozo is being bozo
- doesn't believe darg's PR claim and votes him anyway

Bona N1:
- keeps fighting with town!Neon
- also tells Sabi that they're defending people again

(edited down to only people still alive & dead scum)

BesharamSabi - white knighting their new people again. seriously detracts from any attempt to read wolfu. too tired atm to say something smart but i feel like the repeated attempts to dismiss people questioning wolfu just looks bad but because it's sabi, who knows about alignment.
bo_sox48 - i really liked his angle on wolfu. similar to pyxxy in that he came in late but put in a ton more effort and a ton more thought in a really nice way.
damo666 - liked the survey. not much else. rhk made a good post about him but he dismissed it by saying 'doesn't follow' and then only posting twice more in the thread.
DemonRHK - didn't really do a lot? rereading his d1, not sure what he thought. voted me when i said that most of the game was on vanity wagons - easy jump? nearly ended there but switched off onto worcej.
pyxxy - came in late, didn't really have opinions. see bo_sox
rdrivera2005 - did nothing really interesting except voting me (had a feeling)
Rumi Tobari - feels similar. i have no idea how they'd play scum so it's hard for me to make a distinction - admittedly no towny pureness like last game, but it's very hard to do that on game 2, so a topic of thought.
wolfu - can barely remember anything he posted aside from making a readslist, saying he had reasons, and then not posting them. apparently he had sixty posts???
CrimsonFox/Ike - ike has felt fine but it's easy to do that as any alignment when you have the benefit of being detached from any d1 posting. no idea. see HR

- (ed. note: if Bona is scum, he described Demon and Rumi as "did nothing". He gave the same description to me and rdr.)
- pushes scum!wolfu as an idea (ed. note: I feel like he's kept doing this?)

Bona D2:
- the top poster O.o
- weak pushback on the weird Demon damo interaction from D2, Bona never really follows up on this

Xpost. Yep demon is town. Misguided, but town.

i dont understand why you derive this from that

- casts doubt on brain's scum list (ed. note: brain had N1 scumreads on town!bozo, town!Tom, and bo)
- makes a case on wolfu halfway through the day, even though he's been voting wolfu from SOD
- talks a lot with Rumi, Neon, Sabi, damo, wolfu, and a bit with me, darg, and Tom

(ed. note: SOMEONE HELP ME HERE. This is weird. Bona quotes Demon once on D1 and then never quotes him again until D3. I'm pretty sure I'm right about this, searched through the daily ISOs. Someone tell me if this is TAI NAI or SAI for scum to ignore scum.)

Bona N2 is mostly this, bo maybe you were thinking about N3?

looking back at d2

(supposed VCA by Bona)

tl;dr:
sabi looks bad
demon looks bad
the group of six (HR, Neon, wolfu, darg, the pyx, rdr) almost certainly has scum just cruising on a path to kill town
bozo looks somewhat better
im the best

Re-reading Bona took all my lunch so damo happens later.

3) I'll do 3 when I re-read damo.

4) Bona responded, 5) I like Ike!

6)

Neon ended on a scum team of rumi demon wolfu and ???, where ??? was most often damo.

We have a mis-kill left, so we can DK Bonatogether, damo, and wolfu, but my preference is to start with Bonatogether.

Neon wasn't killed for her scumreads (although she did die for them). Bozo could have been.

7) ty wolfu for keeping me honest, and keeping yourself honest re: Bona seeming genuine

8) The odds of god mode scum!rdr have increased since I last posted

Little happens for 20 or so hours, and then:

woke up, caught up, still thinking, but leaning bona

Another half hour goes by and pyxxy votes Bona, which makes it 3-2, Bona over damo.

Why, having been so convinced of RHK and damo operating as a team together, did pyxxy quietly change from a strong voice voting for damo to a muted voice voting for Bona? kinda sus

—

tl;dr:

A plausible, if not likely, scenario exists where some combination of RHK, Bona, and pyxxy came up with a plan to effectively townclear pyxxy by countering RHK’s commuter claim using an item pyxxy received N1 and without actually hardclaiming commuter. This plan would take pressure off Bona, make pyxxy very unlikely to get daykilled, and assure RHK, the vengeful’s, death simultaneously. Said plan was executed to near perfection. It was an absolutely genius plan and there is a part of me that feels bad exposing it because it’s just that fucking good.

Pyxxy was instrumental in the effort to save Bona on D1 but did so without ever voting for Bona, speaking of Bona, or addressing Bona. Contrarily, when it became convenient to gain towncred by killing Bona - as the tracker was no longer needed and the deep threat role had already been established - on D4 they quietly moved away from damo, their scumread they insisted for two full days was RHK’s partner, to quietly, but in an impactful way, voting for Bona. It was a well timed bus.

This scumteam has at least one genius on it and even if you decide to follow me and win the game by killing pyxxy with me today they deserve credit for even thinking of this convoluted plan.

—

In the event I die momentarily, it’s because I made a mindless reference to this coming case that had been circulating in my brain for much of the day as I decided that wolfu was very likely town out of frustration at the beginning of the night. Woopsies!

In the event I am not, my next post will be voting for pyxxy.

Follow me and be victorious, friends.

[pyxxy]

Sorry again for my share of being rude yesterday. I've tried to reset and abandon looking at how people have behaved in the thread, because I don't appear to be any good at it, and instead focus on votes because that's where all our successes have come from.

Here's what I prepared for EON sharing in case I die.

Post #1: Scum voting behavior

I spent the night time looking back at each known scum's voting patterns and see if we can use their habits to determine something about who they voted _for_.

D1 Bona:

Bona -23:47,
reminder that D1 was only 24h, also yes it's a self vote but reminder sabi always voting for bona at the start of a games so imo meaningless

damo -03:26,
also feels meaningless but maybe that's the bona voting vibes then
context:

Doesn't follow

it makes sense to me.

L + ratio + ##vote damo

darg -00:01,
bo called this a faked town tell and he knows better than me about this sort of thing no sarcasm

It feels like Bona has no real reads on the situation and it just throwing his vote around. Makes sense if he has a hard time faking reads as scum.


D2 Bona:

wolfu -47:56
Tom -00:12

Bona sits on wolfu all day while making a lot of noise and little substance and then switches to a main wagon.

In the abstract this might look like bussing a teammate. And 6 hours ago I would probably have just said that. But considering Bona's D1 votes seemed to be without purpose and that he ended up getting caught because he couldn't put a coherent sentence together (wolfu's paraphrased words not mine), I'm inclined to not see this Bona continuing to fuck around with his vote. NAI for wolfu.


D3 Bona:

damo -22:14 (reminder D3 was hammered at around ~24h left)
UnVote -19:14
Demon -11:15

damo vote was following Sabi's mini-crusade, unvote was after sabi switched to demon, demon vote was 45 minutes after my wallpost counter claiming demon's lie about the scan.

That's 1) fucking around / weakly pushing a wagon that a townie started, 2) unvoting after The Incident, 3) realizing that demon is dead to rights.

In my mind this makes damo look kinda good, because bona wasn't willingly to _lead_ the wagon against him? Scum wants miskills but not the blame for them.


D4 Bona:
damo -47:38
same deal trying to align with sabi and get damo killed

I would consider this good looking for damo. I would count on wolfu focusing on either sabi or bona for bussing in this hypothetical damo flip situation. wolfu even voted for sabi almost all of D3 so this doesn't feel planned out by bona, which is consistent with his voting behavior. NAI or looks good for wolfu.

------

D1 Rumi (brace yourselves):

Demon -00:24
worcej -00:01
UnVote -00:01

Scum town avoiding blame for voting town. Also helping save bona. This isn't original analysis I'm just repeating it.


D2 Rumi:

NoKill -19:54
Tom -00:06

Rumi's NoKill was from Being weird about the supposed Paladin tinfoil hat stuff because of her D1 unvote. And then Tom vote is just following Bona, pretty much expected from a first-time scum, do what your scummates do but try to make it look natural?


D3 Rumi:

Didn't vote before getting modkilled (on purpose imo).


------

D1 Demon:
darg -23:49
UnVote -05:43
damo -04:03
darg -01:42
bo_sox48 -00:40
bona -00:08 (darg had 4 votes and this put bona at 3)
^this was posted literally 7 seconds before darg posted his claim
worcej -00:02

As damo pointed out, wolfu left worcej for rdr which forced demon to move onto worcej to save bona. Super unlikely that that's a move from scum!wolfu. The last minute bona vote seems like an attempt to gain some easy town cred later in the game if bona flips, which seems reasonably likely since imo D1 wagons tend to resurface until they're resolved somehow.

Demon's self-admited scum personality in this game was to be annoying as fuck and a little shitter all of the time. I see their voting behavior reflecting this and I'm hesitant to read too much into any movement before EOD.

However it is interesting that demon and bona were both voting for damo at the same time on D1 and helped get that wagon to 3 before demon switched back to darg.


D2 demon:

damo -47:54
UnVote -47:35
wolfu -05:47
RagingIke -02:24

There wasn't any other pressure on damo to start the day. I think that's just demon messing around? Other votes are explained by the main wagons being town (Tom and bozo). If they're both town, why not end the day on wolfu and possibly give some future town cred to wolfu when you, demon, flip as scum as is the plan? Why bother with Ike? More good looks for wolfu?


D3 demon:

RagingIke -24:46 (reminder D3 was hammered at around ~24h left)
bozo -24:23 (lie claiming guilty on bozo)
demon -00:03, self votes to hammer the day (scummy til the end)

I thought a little more. Ending on Ike D2. Opening with Ike D3. Especially when you know the jig is up? Maybe that's actually a way to get town cred for Ike? Except Ike is a silent meatball through all of this so that seems incredibly unlikely.



Takeaways:
Bona's voting behavior makes wolfu look good. Which is awkward. damo also comes off favorably.
Rumi's voting behavior was a mess but was how y'all found demon + bona so maybe I'm missing something else.
Demon's voting behavior was also a mess but also does some work to clear wolfu.

tl;dr: imo the way that confirmed scum voted make wolfu look really good and this is me backtracking from how I read their personality and their case on sabi and instead trying to focus on what few hard facts we have about this game

-----------------------------------------

Post #2: Our current situation

Assuming commuter doesn't guess right + still has uses left + scum guesses wrong and tries to shoot commuter, we'll be at 4 people left.

Until normal circumstances that would mean 1 miskill left, but we still don't know what we're dealing with here for the 4th scum role.

I continue to believe that it's probably a backup day vig. My rationalization is that scum just hasn't felt any pressure to use it. That would be for 1) scum hasn't been a viable wagon since Rumi+Demon died (ignoring Bona?) and/or 2) scum is waiting to shoot at the last minute tomorrow to cause chaos, or maybe to shoot to trick a wagon into getting hammered.

Let's talk about 1). If there is a day vig, why not shoot a Bona voter? The order was damo, rdr, myself (pyxxy), wolfu. I think one valid reasoning might be to see if myself, wolfu, or bo would have gone to damo as the third voter? I'm getting tired so I can't think harder rn.

For 2), we could maybe try to play around this but it's risky. Day vig cannot shoot within the last 15 minutes. We could all hold our votes until the last 15 minutes of the day tomorrow. This sucks for anyone who isn't terminally online so it's not the best plan but it is an option to avoid day vig shenanigans or at least force a shot before we get to all vote? Especially since this game has an autohammer, if hammer votes were separate I would not consider this a viable strategy.

That covers the main theory. Now let's consider the alternatives:

Artificer:
There haven't been any other items besides my scan, which theoretically could have been a fake scan. And the Artificer became useless after the N1 NK on brain, the real Inventor, because no one would be believe the items any more. Consider this plausible.

Barbarian: Confirmed

Bard:
I'm not sure if a player gets the "you were roleblocked" message even if they're a VT / don't use an action? But considering no one's claimed to have gotten this message, I don't think there's a Bard.

Cleric (deathproof):
Possible, HR made some good points about why it's at least a viable role to choose, and scum clearly undersold/ignored it in bozo's survey iirc? But it's not a problem if we just kill scum today (D6) in the likely 3v1 situation (3v1, 3v1 again bc lives, 2v1, we win D7). However if we don't kill the last scum today and they're Cleric, they win unless they hit the commuting Commuter tomororw night (N6). Which seems fairly improbable. Consider this plausible.

Druid (universal backup):
The most likely situation.

Fighter (strongman):
No evidence of this role and doesn't matter now anyway. I guess with doctor dying D1, scum could have picked this and realized that they should never use it because it would just reveal its existence. Theoretically plausible.

Monk (jailor):
We would have heard about someone getting jailed by now. No.

Paladin (double vote):
No.

Rogue (day vig) Confirmed

Ranger (tracker) Confirmed

the odd or even night cops:
Plausible, although the timing of the PR deaths means that these were never actually useful.

Warlock (godfather):
Plausible.


Takeaways:
I think we should consider holding votes until late in the day if not even to the last hour or the 15 minutes to try and reduce backup day vig induced chaos? But this might be a bad idea, open to feedback.

The way we play around backup day vig is mostly the same as how to play around Cleric, I think, so nothing else to consider? Tomorrow is kilo regardless of the last scum being backup day vig or cleric. If we miskill again tomorrow (D6), then either we lose immediately or we don't and that confirms what the last scum role was/is.

[Chaqa]

Please hold.

[Chaqa]

The Kobolds awake to find everyone alive and well.

Day has started.

[bo_sox48]

neat, guess pyxxy also knows who the commuter is

[pyxxy]

neat, guess bo also knows who the commuter is

[bo_sox48]

oh shit I lied about my next post ##vote pyxxy

[pyxxy]

oh shit I lied about my next post ##vote pyxxy

he's a liar, gettem boys

## I'm kidding, I would like to think I've grown past OMGUS

[bo_sox48]

neat, guess bo also knows who the commuter is

It's pretty easy poe. Everyone should know. I'm not surprised you went for rdr first; they were the other option.

[pyxxy]

neat, guess bo also knows who the commuter is

It's pretty easy poe. Everyone should know. I'm not surprised you went for rdr first; they were the other option.

Fairly convenient excluding yourself from the poe.

But I think we do both agree that wolfu and damo are both town? So it's between you me and celaph for the DK?

[bo_sox48]

neat, guess bo also knows who the commuter is

It's pretty easy poe. Everyone should know. I'm not surprised you went for rdr first; they were the other option.

Fairly convenient excluding yourself from the poe.

But I think we do both agree that wolfu and damo are both town? So it's between you me and celaph for the DK?

You really considered that the guy who hadn't considered the mechanics around RHK's commuter claim could be the commuter?

Funny daykill list, I'm actually chuckling.