M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[wolfu]

i think sabi might be mafia

not really confident but reading their iso that's the vibe i get

[Tom Bombadil]

I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.

[wolfu]

anyway now that i'm home my rationale for voting tom is as follows:

1. brainbomb and riot were both repping confident scumreads on tom

2. brain died with a confident townread on riot

3. these are smart capable players and when smart capable players have a strong meta scumread the best thing to do is shut up and sheep

Do you think brain was killed because of a PR read or for other reasons?

uh probably because he was obvious town and is a strong leader

i doubt he was killed as a PR read over the literal claimed JOAT

[rdrivera2005]

anyway now that i'm home my rationale for voting tom is as follows:

1. brainbomb and riot were both repping confident scumreads on tom

2. brain died with a confident townread on riot

3. these are smart capable players and when smart capable players have a strong meta scumread the best thing to do is shut up and sheep

From another player that knows meta: if scum were worried with reads on Tom they will kill HR and not BB. Brain was probably a good PR guess and this put Damo and Bozo higher on my suspect list as they are pretty good om PR hunting. Tom can still be scum, but this reasoning is bad and sheeping is even worst.

##vote Bozo

[Bonatogether]

I guess there's a question of, is this all a Barbarian play by darg to get killed? Barbarian is only useful if it dies.

That's not a bad scum play, especially if darg was (un)lucky enough to be a top D1 wagon.

Should we be re-examing the D1 darg voters? Were they bussing from D1 to set this up?

For transparency, I was one of them until he claimed.

Actually no it can wait until after EOD today when we know for sure if darg is lying or not. And if darg is a Barb, we'll want to try and force someone we think is scum to be the first voter and take the vengeful hit, and that's just easier to analyze after today.

this doesn't make sense

why bus on d1? that would have be organized with basically zero information about the game state and is highly likely to like, do nothing useful for scum

Well first, scum had a N0. Don't forget about that.

Second, sorry, I can clarify, I'm not positing that scum could have planned the entire thing. I'm saying that since scum would all know darg is Barbarian, they might theoretically be more inclined to bus him once he was looking like a strong wagon.

I wrote this and then went back to do D1 VCA and darg peaked at 5 votes when I went onto him at D1 -00:12 so actually this doesn't really make that much sense. The whole autohammer thing really does get rid of big wagons, huh. No shot there's 2 scum on the darg wagon there (I say because 1 doesn't feel like a strong enough bus for my theory).

Yeah nevermind look I was already moving past the darg topic, I wrote all this as I read the thread and thought through things. I should probably just head out until bozo shows up.

if darg is being bussed, why does he claim in a non-specific way before eod (so it's unccable) and not just either bite the bullet or bait out a real cc?

[Hellenic Riot]

I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.

Are you actually going to acknowledge and discuss my read at any point, or shall we just continue to pretend it doesn't exist

[wolfu]

anyway now that i'm home my rationale for voting tom is as follows:

1. brainbomb and riot were both repping confident scumreads on tom

2. brain died with a confident townread on riot

3. these are smart capable players and when smart capable players have a strong meta scumread the best thing to do is shut up and sheep

From another player that knows meta: if scum were worried with reads on Tom they will kill HR and not BB. Brain was probably a good PR guess and this put Damo and Bozo higher on my suspect list as they are pretty good om PR hunting. Tom can still be scum, but this reasoning is bad and sheeping is even worst.

##vote Bozo

okay point taken, i'd be willing to vote bozo but i'd still effectively be sheeping

[Bonatogether]

i think sabi might be mafia

not really confident but reading their iso that's the vibe i get

sources, MLA format, are required for this assignment

[Tom Bombadil]

HR - your read on me is that you’ve always easily townread me and this time you don’t because of meta and I didn’t do anything D1.

How the fuck you want me to argue that?

[Bonatogether]

I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.

why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of information

[Tom Bombadil]

I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.

why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of information

It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?

[Tom Bombadil]

Analyzing night kills is a pretty significant part of the game

[Bonatogether]

I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.

why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of information

It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?

we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns

[pyxxy]

this doesn't make sense

why bus on d1? that would have be organized with basically zero information about the game state and is highly likely to like, do nothing useful for scum

Well first, scum had a N0. Don't forget about that.

Second, sorry, I can clarify, I'm not positing that scum could have planned the entire thing. I'm saying that since scum would all know darg is Barbarian, they might theoretically be more inclined to bus him once he was looking like a strong wagon.

I wrote this and then went back to do D1 VCA and darg peaked at 5 votes when I went onto him at D1 -00:12 so actually this doesn't really make that much sense. The whole autohammer thing really does get rid of big wagons, huh. No shot there's 2 scum on the darg wagon there (I say because 1 doesn't feel like a strong enough bus for my theory).

Yeah nevermind look I was already moving past the darg topic, I wrote all this as I read the thread and thought through things. I should probably just head out until bozo shows up.

if darg is being bussed, why does he claim in a non-specific way before eod (so it's unccable) and not just either bite the bullet or bait out a real cc?

I think the timing made it more uncc'able than anything else. Odds of the PR being online and all that.

I still think this line of questioning is a distraction right now. Like I said I've moved past it for now. darg will resolve at EOD and we can go from there.

[Tom Bombadil]

why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of information

It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?

we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns

Got it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking about

[Bonatogether]

It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?

we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns

Got it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking about

has nk analysis EVER produced something valuable? i can't remember it

[Princess Neon]

i think sabi might be mafia

not really confident but reading their iso that's the vibe i get

I do not necessarily disagree. Why?

[Princess Neon]

we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns

Got it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking about

has nk analysis EVER produced something valuable? i can't remember it

Yes. Repeatedly. In multiple games across multiple communities.

[Tom Bombadil]

we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns

Got it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking about

has nk analysis EVER produced something valuable? i can't remember it

Let’s move on and leave it at the fact that is strongly disagree.

[Princess Neon]

The more I think about it the more I think... this set up is insanely scum sided.