M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1321 Post by wolfu » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:54 pm

i think sabi might be mafia

not really confident but reading their iso that's the vibe i get

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1322 Post by Tom Bombadil » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:55 pm

I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1323 Post by wolfu » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:56 pm

Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:53 pm
wolfu wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:50 pm
anyway now that i'm home my rationale for voting tom is as follows:

1. brainbomb and riot were both repping confident scumreads on tom

2. brain died with a confident townread on riot

3. these are smart capable players and when smart capable players have a strong meta scumread the best thing to do is shut up and sheep
Do you think brain was killed because of a PR read or for other reasons?
uh probably because he was obvious town and is a strong leader

i doubt he was killed as a PR read over the literal claimed JOAT

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1324 Post by rdrivera2005 » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:57 pm

wolfu wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:50 pm
anyway now that i'm home my rationale for voting tom is as follows:

1. brainbomb and riot were both repping confident scumreads on tom

2. brain died with a confident townread on riot

3. these are smart capable players and when smart capable players have a strong meta scumread the best thing to do is shut up and sheep
From another player that knows meta: if scum were worried with reads on Tom they will kill HR and not BB. Brain was probably a good PR guess and this put Damo and Bozo higher on my suspect list as they are pretty good om PR hunting. Tom can still be scum, but this reasoning is bad and sheeping is even worst.

##vote Bozo

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1325 Post by Bonatogether » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:57 pm

pyxxy wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:54 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:43 pm
pyxxy wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:35 pm
I guess there's a question of, is this all a Barbarian play by darg to get killed? Barbarian is only useful if it dies.

That's not a bad scum play, especially if darg was (un)lucky enough to be a top D1 wagon.

Should we be re-examing the D1 darg voters? Were they bussing from D1 to set this up?

For transparency, I was one of them until he claimed.

Actually no it can wait until after EOD today when we know for sure if darg is lying or not. And if darg is a Barb, we'll want to try and force someone we think is scum to be the first voter and take the vengeful hit, and that's just easier to analyze after today.
this doesn't make sense

why bus on d1? that would have be organized with basically zero information about the game state and is highly likely to like, do nothing useful for scum
Well first, scum had a N0. Don't forget about that.

Second, sorry, I can clarify, I'm not positing that scum could have planned the entire thing. I'm saying that since scum would all know darg is Barbarian, they might theoretically be more inclined to bus him once he was looking like a strong wagon.

I wrote this and then went back to do D1 VCA and darg peaked at 5 votes when I went onto him at D1 -00:12 so actually this doesn't really make that much sense. The whole autohammer thing really does get rid of big wagons, huh. No shot there's 2 scum on the darg wagon there (I say because 1 doesn't feel like a strong enough bus for my theory).

Yeah nevermind look I was already moving past the darg topic, I wrote all this as I read the thread and thought through things. I should probably just head out until bozo shows up.
if darg is being bussed, why does he claim in a non-specific way before eod (so it's unccable) and not just either bite the bullet or bait out a real cc?

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1326 Post by Hellenic Riot » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:58 pm

Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:55 pm
I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.
Are you actually going to acknowledge and discuss my read at any point, or shall we just continue to pretend it doesn't exist

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1327 Post by wolfu » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:58 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:57 pm
wolfu wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:50 pm
anyway now that i'm home my rationale for voting tom is as follows:

1. brainbomb and riot were both repping confident scumreads on tom

2. brain died with a confident townread on riot

3. these are smart capable players and when smart capable players have a strong meta scumread the best thing to do is shut up and sheep
From another player that knows meta: if scum were worried with reads on Tom they will kill HR and not BB. Brain was probably a good PR guess and this put Damo and Bozo higher on my suspect list as they are pretty good om PR hunting. Tom can still be scum, but this reasoning is bad and sheeping is even worst.

##vote Bozo
okay point taken, i'd be willing to vote bozo but i'd still effectively be sheeping

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1328 Post by Bonatogether » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:00 pm

wolfu wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:54 pm
i think sabi might be mafia

not really confident but reading their iso that's the vibe i get
sources, MLA format, are required for this assignment

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1329 Post by Tom Bombadil » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 pm

HR - your read on me is that you’ve always easily townread me and this time you don’t because of meta and I didn’t do anything D1.

How the fuck you want me to argue that?

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1330 Post by Bonatogether » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 pm

Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:55 pm
I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.
why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of information

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1331 Post by Tom Bombadil » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:02 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 pm
Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:55 pm
I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.
why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of information
It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1332 Post by Tom Bombadil » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:03 pm

Analyzing night kills is a pretty significant part of the game

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1333 Post by Bonatogether » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:09 pm

Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:02 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 pm
Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:55 pm
I tend to think it was a PR read, as I think in general D1 that’s the right move as scum to PR hunt.

But if brain was killed because of his reads (in particular his scumread of me), I would argue that’s a pretty transparent setup of a likely miskill given my D1. Further, if I’m fear killing someone D1 for their scumread of me, 100 times out of 100 it’s HR, not brain. HR isn’t scatterbrained and much less likely to get bored and hop off me, and HR can actually convince people to vote his wagon.
why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of information
It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?
we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1334 Post by pyxxy » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:10 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:57 pm
pyxxy wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:54 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:43 pm

this doesn't make sense

why bus on d1? that would have be organized with basically zero information about the game state and is highly likely to like, do nothing useful for scum
Well first, scum had a N0. Don't forget about that.

Second, sorry, I can clarify, I'm not positing that scum could have planned the entire thing. I'm saying that since scum would all know darg is Barbarian, they might theoretically be more inclined to bus him once he was looking like a strong wagon.

I wrote this and then went back to do D1 VCA and darg peaked at 5 votes when I went onto him at D1 -00:12 so actually this doesn't really make that much sense. The whole autohammer thing really does get rid of big wagons, huh. No shot there's 2 scum on the darg wagon there (I say because 1 doesn't feel like a strong enough bus for my theory).

Yeah nevermind look I was already moving past the darg topic, I wrote all this as I read the thread and thought through things. I should probably just head out until bozo shows up.
if darg is being bussed, why does he claim in a non-specific way before eod (so it's unccable) and not just either bite the bullet or bait out a real cc?
I think the timing made it more uncc'able than anything else. Odds of the PR being online and all that.

I still think this line of questioning is a distraction right now. Like I said I've moved past it for now. darg will resolve at EOD and we can go from there.

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1335 Post by Tom Bombadil » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:11 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:09 pm
Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:02 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:01 pm


why brain was killed is unknowable and not a hugely relevant piece of information
It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?
we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns
Got it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking about

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1336 Post by Bonatogether » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:14 pm

Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:11 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:09 pm
Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:02 pm


It’s quite literally one of the only pieces of information out there. Wtf?
we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns
Got it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking about
has nk analysis EVER produced something valuable? i can't remember it

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1337 Post by Princess Neon » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:23 pm

wolfu wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:54 pm
i think sabi might be mafia

not really confident but reading their iso that's the vibe i get
I do not necessarily disagree. Why?

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1338 Post by Princess Neon » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:23 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:14 pm
Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:11 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:09 pm


we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns
Got it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking about
has nk analysis EVER produced something valuable? i can't remember it
Yes. Repeatedly. In multiple games across multiple communities.

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1339 Post by Tom Bombadil » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:23 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:14 pm
Tom Bombadil wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:11 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:09 pm


we know he was killed
we know his role

why scum did it is an answer that you can only guess at because it's dependent on who's scum, what they're thinking, what roles they chose, etc. the implications of different possibilities can be looked at but they aren't anything that's seriously convincing as either a way to townread or scumread someone - there's too many unknowns
Got it. Better see a hell of a lot of vote count analysis out of you then, if you think all that is not worth thinking about
has nk analysis EVER produced something valuable? i can't remember it
Let’s move on and leave it at the fact that is strongly disagree.

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Re: M76 - Dungeons and Dragons - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#1340 Post by Princess Neon » Thu Sep 15, 2022 11:24 pm

The more I think about it the more I think... this set up is insanely scum sided.

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