Austria vs Bots

[Trigfea63]

Here is my final report on T-0128. When I wrote my last post 8 game-years ago, after the Autumn 1914 retreats, I thought I had plenty of time to bring armies onto the continent and get them to the Munich-Berlin line before Turkey. But alas, each time I took a center from Germany, he removed an army along the eastern frontier. (Kind of like a human player, actually.)

In Winter 1914 he removed Sevastapol:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

In Winter 1915 he removed Ukraine and Galicia, and Italy removed Vienna:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

And then Turkey was off to the races across a wide-open Eastern Europe. One year later, after the Winter 1916 adjustments, Turkey had armies in Moscow, Warsaw, Vienna, and Venice, with 3 new army builds coming on, and 14 total SCs, the same as me. My strategy shifted slightly at this point, to preventing Turkey from gaining any more SCs, while starting my march toward Munich-Berlin. I finally brought on my third army in that same Winter 1916 adjustment phase:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

In Spring 1917, I immediately moved to prevent a Turkish capture of StP. I was a bit slower in the south: it took a correct 50/50 guess in Autumn 1917 to prevent Turkey taking either Rome or Naples. By the Winter 1917 adjustments, the battle lines were clearly drawn. I was defending Italy against Turkey in the South, and Turkey was defending Germany against me in the North:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

The Sevastapol army was clearly headed for Warsaw/Prussia. Could I strike at the soft spot at Prussia/Livonia before it arrived? In Autumn 1918 Turkey guessed right and blocked me:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

In Spring 1919 he guessed right again:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I was beginning to wonder if my focus on fleets through 1915 was going to cost me the solo. But in Autumn 1919 I broke through, occupying the empty Prussia. As luck would have it, I also captured StP when Germany decided to attack Norway, losing Turkey's support-hold:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

From there it was just a matter of finishing Germany off, 1 step at a time. In Spring 1921 I executed a forced capture of Berlin, and in Spring 1922 a forced capture of Munich. Another victory for humanity! Here's the link to the final position, and the full game:

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=429773

[Trigfea63]

I just started another game as Turkey (it was random power selection). Either of you want me to do a running commentary here of that game too?

I have also started another game. I very un-creatively named it T-0129. I drew Austria as it happens, and Italy attacked (VEN-->TYR, ROM-->VEN). It's now Autumn 1902 diplomacy. Here's the current board:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I'd be glad to do another running commentary as I go. I think a few people are reading these commentaries. It's kind of fun to write them.

[DougJoe]

Here is my final report on T-0128. When I wrote my last post 8 game-years ago, after the Autumn 1914 retreats, I thought I had plenty of time to bring armies onto the continent and get them to the Munich-Berlin line before Turkey. But alas, each time I took a center from Germany, he removed an army along the eastern frontier. (Kind of like a human player, actually.)

In Winter 1914 he removed Sevastapol:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

In Winter 1915 he removed Ukraine and Galicia, and Italy removed Vienna:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

And then Turkey was off to the races across a wide-open Eastern Europe. One year later, after the Winter 1916 adjustments, Turkey had armies in Moscow, Warsaw, Vienna, and Venice, with 3 new army builds coming on, and 14 total SCs, the same as me. My strategy shifted slightly at this point, to preventing Turkey from gaining any more SCs, while starting my march toward Munich-Berlin. I finally brought on my third army in that same Winter 1916 adjustment phase:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

In Spring 1917, I immediately moved to prevent a Turkish capture of StP. I was a bit slower in the south: it took a correct 50/50 guess in Autumn 1917 to prevent Turkey taking either Rome or Naples. By the Winter 1917 adjustments, the battle lines were clearly drawn. I was defending Italy against Turkey in the South, and Turkey was defending Germany against me in the North:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

The Sevastapol army was clearly headed for Warsaw/Prussia. Could I strike at the soft spot at Prussia/Livonia before it arrived? In Autumn 1918 Turkey guessed right and blocked me:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

In Spring 1919 he guessed right again:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I was beginning to wonder if my focus on fleets through 1915 was going to cost me the solo. But in Autumn 1919 I broke through, occupying the empty Prussia. As luck would have it, I also captured StP when Germany decided to attack Norway, losing Turkey's support-hold:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

From there it was just a matter of finishing Germany off, 1 step at a time. In Spring 1921 I executed a forced capture of Berlin, and in Spring 1922 a forced capture of Munich. Another victory for humanity! Here's the link to the final position, and the full game:

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=429773

Congrats! Hopefully our two English victories give George something to think about. Been semi-off the grid traveling the past couple of days so I couldn't comment previously...

[DougJoe]

I just started another game as Turkey (it was random power selection). Either of you want me to do a running commentary here of that game too?

I have also started another game. I very un-creatively named it T-0129. I drew Austria as it happens, and Italy attacked (VEN-->TYR, ROM-->VEN). It's now Autumn 1902 diplomacy. Here's the current board:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I'd be glad to do another running commentary as I go. I think a few people are reading these commentaries. It's kind of fun to write them.

I think it's fun, too.

This is the part where I wish I knew, as Austria, how to influence either R or T. If you could get Turkey out of Serbia you might have something, maybe Bud S Ser-Rum?

[Trigfea63]

I think it's fun, too.

This is the part where I wish I knew, as Austria, how to influence either R or T. If you could get Turkey out of Serbia you might have something, maybe Bud S Ser-Rum?

I wish I knew, too. The bots seem to take some time before they trust you. Supporting Turkey into RUM is probably the best shot I can take at beginning to establish that trust with T. That's what I'm going with. If it works, my support also gets T out of Serbia using only 1 unit. It seems reasonably likely that T will order SER-->RUM, and that Russia will order UKR support-hold SEV.

I still want to mull the other moves a bit more. So far I'm thinking GRE-->ION supported by ADR, VIE support-hold TRI. I expect Italy will order TYR-->TRI supported by VEN (again), TUN-->ION (again), and APU support-hold VEN. But he could order APU-->ADR, which would neutralize my moves.

[DougJoe]

I forgot about Portugal, silly me. France did get a build and built F Bre. Germany built another army, England got rid of Norway and now Russia has life to come over the top. Italy did build army Venice, like I was hoping for (because I still have a fleet majority.)

Time to get some shuteye, want to ruminate on the tactics of this one a little bit.

Pre-Spring 03: I want to continue pressing in the south against Italy, and I think the best way to do that here is Bul S Ser, Ser S Gre->Alb, Smy->AEG, AEG->Gre, EMS->ION. The worst that can happen (I think, barring any Russian or Austrian influence which doesn't seem likely) is that units support Alb and it supports ION to Gre, which trades Greece for a Turkish fleet in the Ionian, with Tunis or Naples for the Fall.

Post-Spring 03/Pre-Fall 03: Well, I took Alb and got the fleet into Gre, which leaves the Italian army nowhere to run. I now have three fleets on ION, which means I should be able to punch my way in during the fall turn. Italy, interestingly enough, did nothing with Alb/ION/ADR but support holds - I thought for sure he was going to be hostile but he wasn't... perhaps the build of army Venice and the lack of a lepanto was a sign that he was intending to leave me alone, perhaps not. In any case, I wonder if bot Italy was just buying time or expecting me to attack Russia or Austria? It's hard to tell.

Russia will probably play Rum S Gal->Bud, Italy probably ADR S Tri, Tri S Tyo->Vie. Austria will lose two unless I tap Tri, which I will do and try to take. We'll also take the Ionian, but with which fleet? Fleets belong in the water, so Greece kind of makes sense, but I'd like it to stay there for now, so probably from EMS. Italy will be able to rebuild his unit in the fall, but he'll have a lot of hard choices to make with little risk on my part.

[Trigfea63]

Post-Spring 03/Pre-Fall 03: Well, I took Alb and got the fleet into Gre, which leaves the Italian army nowhere to run. I now have three fleets on ION, which means I should be able to punch my way in during the fall turn. Italy, interestingly enough, did nothing with Alb/ION/ADR but support holds - I thought for sure he was going to be hostile but he wasn't... perhaps the build of army Venice and the lack of a lepanto was a sign that he was intending to leave me alone, perhaps not. In any case, I wonder if bot Italy was just buying time or expecting me to attack Russia or Austria? It's hard to tell.

Russia will probably play Rum S Gal->Bud, Italy probably ADR S Tri, Tri S Tyo->Vie. Austria will lose two unless I tap Tri, which I will do and try to take. We'll also take the Ionian, but with which fleet? Fleets belong in the water, so Greece kind of makes sense, but I'd like it to stay there for now, so probably from EMS. Italy will be able to rebuild his unit in the fall, but he'll have a lot of hard choices to make with little risk on my part.

Your position is strong. You will soon overtake Trieste, and then Italy. The jugg is afoot! I agree with your predictions for the bots' Fall '03 moves, and your corresponding moves. I am intrigued by your comment, "Fleets belong in the water." I suppose as a general statement, that's true. But it also seems quite clear you're better off with a fleet in Greece than in EMS. Maybe if you were contesting Serbia, you'd want an army in Greece. But Greece is a very natural place to station a fleet. Besides holding down a SC, the Greece fleet influences ION, AEG, BUL, and ALB. Not bad. A fleet in Denmark is similarly well-situated.

[Trigfea63]

The Autumn '02 moves processed in my Austria game. The highlight: Turkey pulled out of Serbia! Good call, Doug! He didn't go for Rumania, he went to Bulgaria with support from CON:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

It's probably about an equally good result. Russia is in Rumania still, not ideal. If Turkey had dislodged him he'd be in Galicia, also not ideal. In theory, he could now move RUM-->SER. But I don't think he will. He built an army in Moscow, and I predict he'll play MOS S SEV, UKR S RUM. If I'm right, that means Turkey won't dislodge the Rumania army anytime soon, so it won't retreat into Serbia, and I don't necessarily need to cover. Still, I'm considering BUD-->SER. Just to show the bot-brains that I care about defending my centers. Maybe I'd move it back to Budapest in the Autumn.

Italy did not do quite what I predicted. He ordered TYR-->TRI supported by VEN, as I thought. And TUN-->ION, as I thought. But he ordered Apulia to support Tunis moving to the Ionian. That's not illogical, it kept me out of the Ionian. But it left Venice exposed. If I had played the most straightforward attack, TRI-->VEN supported by ADR, and VIE-->TRI to cover, I would have taken Venice. Of course, that would have been a pretty risky moveset. But now, knowing how the bot-brain works, I think Italy might repeat those orders. Maybe not, maybe he'll switch it up. This is worth watching closely. I'll probably play the same orders again in Spring '03 and see what happens: VIE S TRI, GRE-->ION supported by ADR.

The most interesting development in the rest of Europe is France's move to Marseilles. Does he continue on to Piedmont, or is it just to defend Burgundy (BUR-->BEL, PAR support MAR-->BUR)?

[DougJoe]

Post-Spring 03/Pre-Fall 03: Well, I took Alb and got the fleet into Gre, which leaves the Italian army nowhere to run. I now have three fleets on ION, which means I should be able to punch my way in during the fall turn. Italy, interestingly enough, did nothing with Alb/ION/ADR but support holds - I thought for sure he was going to be hostile but he wasn't... perhaps the build of army Venice and the lack of a lepanto was a sign that he was intending to leave me alone, perhaps not. In any case, I wonder if bot Italy was just buying time or expecting me to attack Russia or Austria? It's hard to tell.

Russia will probably play Rum S Gal->Bud, Italy probably ADR S Tri, Tri S Tyo->Vie. Austria will lose two unless I tap Tri, which I will do and try to take. We'll also take the Ionian, but with which fleet? Fleets belong in the water, so Greece kind of makes sense, but I'd like it to stay there for now, so probably from EMS. Italy will be able to rebuild his unit in the fall, but he'll have a lot of hard choices to make with little risk on my part.

Your position is strong. You will soon overtake Trieste, and then Italy. The jugg is afoot! I agree with your predictions for the bots' Fall '03 moves, and your corresponding moves. I am intrigued by your comment, "Fleets belong in the water." I suppose as a general statement, that's true. But it also seems quite clear you're better off with a fleet in Greece than in EMS. Maybe if you were contesting Serbia, you'd want an army in Greece. But Greece is a very natural place to station a fleet. Besides holding down a SC, the Greece fleet influences ION, AEG, BUL, and ALB. Not bad. A fleet in Denmark is similarly well-situated.

Exactly as you said, "fleets belong in the water" is a general rule. Having one in Greece isn't bad, but eventually it will go somewhere else.

Fall/Winter results:
I (Turkey) did get the Ionian and not Trieste, as expected.

I was wrong about Italy, he didn't go for Vienna. He tried to reclaim Albania - and only failed because Austria tapped Trieste.
Russia did take Bud just like I suspected, no shock there.

Germany tried to move into Bur, but didn't use Belgium for support? Weird.
England just trying to survive. France in ENC, interesting to see what he does with that (Lon, NTH, or Bel).

Italy rebuilt a fleet in Naples. No surprise there.
Russia build F Stp (nc), A War, again, no surprise.

So what do I want to to this year?

Option 1: Convoy Albania to Apulia, move Ser->Alb, Bul->Ser. Fleets defend ION.

Option 2: Use ION to tap ADR, try to take Tri with Alb/Ser, hope I get help from Russia in Bud or Austria somehow.

Options 3: Move ION forward to TYS, backfill ION with Gre/AEG, try to take Tri with Alb/Ser.

I think I'm going to go option 1, because I think that Italy is going to use Tun/Nap to either try to block TYS (through a bounce) and use the other units to defend Tri. A convoy to Alb makes Italy have to make all sorts of horrible decisions in the fall. I know this leaves me exposed against Russia, but that's the way these Turkey games seem to go.

"...the threat is often stronger than the execution"
-Aron Nimzowitsch

[DougJoe]

The Autumn '02 moves processed in my Austria game. The highlight: Turkey pulled out of Serbia! Good call, Doug! He didn't go for Rumania, he went to Bulgaria with support from CON:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

It's probably about an equally good result. Russia is in Rumania still, not ideal. If Turkey had dislodged him he'd be in Galicia, also not ideal. In theory, he could now move RUM-->SER. But I don't think he will. He built an army in Moscow, and I predict he'll play MOS S SEV, UKR S RUM. If I'm right, that means Turkey won't dislodge the Rumania army anytime soon, so it won't retreat into Serbia, and I don't necessarily need to cover. Still, I'm considering BUD-->SER. Just to show the bot-brains that I care about defending my centers. Maybe I'd move it back to Budapest in the Autumn.

Italy did not do quite what I predicted. He ordered TYR-->TRI supported by VEN, as I thought. And TUN-->ION, as I thought. But he ordered Apulia to support Tunis moving to the Ionian. That's not illogical, it kept me out of the Ionian. But it left Venice exposed. If I had played the most straightforward attack, TRI-->VEN supported by ADR, and VIE-->TRI to cover, I would have taken Venice. Of course, that would have been a pretty risky moveset. But now, knowing how the bot-brain works, I think Italy might repeat those orders. Maybe not, maybe he'll switch it up. This is worth watching closely. I'll probably play the same orders again in Spring '03 and see what happens: VIE S TRI, GRE-->ION supported by ADR.

The most interesting development in the rest of Europe is France's move to Marseilles. Does he continue on to Piedmont, or is it just to defend Burgundy (BUR-->BEL, PAR support MAR-->BUR)?

My guess is that France is just defending Burgundy. I'll be more surprised if he moves to Pie, but that's what you want, of course.

I like your thoughts on seeing what Italy does in the spring to try to predict the fall. The question then becomes what to do with Bud this turn?

[DougJoe]

Fall/Winter results:
I (Turkey) did get the Ionian and not Trieste, as expected.

I was wrong about Italy, he didn't go for Vienna. He tried to reclaim Albania - and only failed because Austria tapped Trieste.
Russia did take Bud just like I suspected, no shock there.

Germany tried to move into Bur, but didn't use Belgium for support? Weird.
England just trying to survive. France in ENC, interesting to see what he does with that (Lon, NTH, or Bel).

Italy rebuilt a fleet in Naples. No surprise there.
Russia build F Stp (nc), A War, again, no surprise.

So what do I want to to this year?

Option 1: Convoy Albania to Apulia, move Ser->Alb, Bul->Ser. Fleets defend ION.

Option 2: Use ION to tap ADR, try to take Tri with Alb/Ser, hope I get help from Russia in Bud or Austria somehow.

Options 3: Move ION forward to TYS, backfill ION with Gre/AEG, try to take Tri with Alb/Ser.

I think I'm going to go option 1, because I think that Italy is going to use Tun/Nap to either try to block TYS (through a bounce) and use the other units to defend Tri. A convoy to Alb makes Italy have to make all sorts of horrible decisions in the fall. I know this leaves me exposed against Russia, but that's the way these Turkey games seem to go.

"...the threat is often stronger than the execution"
-Aron Nimzowitsch

No issues with the convoy to Apulia or the army advances to Alb/Ser. Italy did go after ION (with only two units, though) rather than defending TYS.
France went for London and is there, didn't attack Germany.
Germany didn't do much other than move to NTH. Looks like he's trying to be friendly with both France and Russia.
Russia took Vie, Austria's dead, England won't be far behind.

Again, a plethora of options this turn for the Turks. Venice is open, Rome is open. TYS is open. There doesn't appear to be a way to force anything by myself this turn (I might get help from Russia with Tri but not counting on it). So, I think I'm going to go positional again. ION will move forward to TYS, we'll try to backfill ION with Gre (S AEG). I'll take the shot at Rome (I think that's the least likely thing that Italy will defend) as well as going after Trieste (Ser S Abl->Tri). We'll see what happens.

[DougJoe]

No issues with the convoy to Apulia or the army advances to Alb/Ser. Italy did go after ION (with only two units, though) rather than defending TYS.
France went for London and is there, didn't attack Germany.
Germany didn't do much other than move to NTH. Looks like he's trying to be friendly with both France and Russia.
Russia took Vie, Austria's dead, England won't be far behind.

Again, a plethora of options this turn for the Turks. Venice is open, Rome is open. TYS is open. There doesn't appear to be a way to force anything by myself this turn (I might get help from Russia with Tri but not counting on it). So, I think I'm going to go positional again. ION will move forward to TYS, we'll try to backfill ION with Gre (S AEG). I'll take the shot at Rome (I think that's the least likely thing that Italy will defend) as well as going after Trieste (Ser S Abl->Tri). We'll see what happens.

Well, I was wrong about Rome and didn't get any help from Russia (although I got TYS I got blocked out of ION.) I could have actually taken Venice, which surprises me. Germany didn't do much. France moved south from IRI to MAO, which worries me a little and he built fleet Bre. Russia built another army in Warsaw, wondering if he's going to press Germany now. He's three centers ahead of me which is less than optimal - but I've potentially got all of Italy, Trieste, and Tunis to make up for it.

But what to do this turn?

I think I'm going to go for Venice, Trieste, and try to move the Greece fleet forward again. Why Venice? I don't think Italy will guard it again. I think he will use Tun to hit TYS and ADR to hit Apu, maybe Nap->Rom again. If I get into Venice, then I should be able to hold it or use it to get into Tri in the Fall?

So:
Apu->Ven
TYS, AEG S Gre->ION
Ser S Alb->Tri

[DougJoe]

Well, I was wrong about Rome and didn't get any help from Russia (although I got TYS I got blocked out of ION.) I could have actually taken Venice, which surprises me. Germany didn't do much. France moved south from IRI to MAO, which worries me a little and he built fleet Bre. Russia built another army in Warsaw, wondering if he's going to press Germany now. He's three centers ahead of me which is less than optimal - but I've potentially got all of Italy, Trieste, and Tunis to make up for it.

But what to do this turn?

I think I'm going to go for Venice, Trieste, and try to move the Greece fleet forward again. Why Venice? I don't think Italy will guard it again. I think he will use Tun to hit TYS and ADR to hit Apu, maybe Nap->Rom again. If I get into Venice, then I should be able to hold it or use it to get into Tri in the Fall?

So:
Apu->Ven
TYS, AEG S Gre->ION
Ser S Alb->Tri

Ok, I was sort of right about Italy - he moved Tun-TYS and Nap-Rom. I got into Venice. Russia tried to help with Trieste but it wasn't enough as ADR continued to support Tri. He (Russia) is in Bohemia now, too.

England seems to want to die, France moved fleets back north and is tussling with Russia.

Ok, so what do I think Italy is going to do? If he tries to move and unit back to Venice with support, I should be able to take Trieste, so we'll have Ser S Alb->Tri again. Otherwise, it's a hornet's nest, and I'm not sure there's really a "wrong" answer...

We're going to try to move TYS to Rome supported by Venice and ION to ADR (just to cut any support), with AEG following into ION. I kind of expect Russia to hit Tyo, but I may be wrong about that... if somehow TYS has to retreat, it can do so to Naples, which would be open since Rom/Tun would not cover it.

[DougJoe]

Ok, I was sort of right about Italy - he moved Tun-TYS and Nap-Rom. I got into Venice. Russia tried to help with Trieste but it wasn't enough as ADR continued to support Tri. He (Russia) is in Bohemia now, too.

England seems to want to die, France moved fleets back north and is tussling with Russia.

Ok, so what do I think Italy is going to do? If he tries to move and unit back to Venice with support, I should be able to take Trieste, so we'll have Ser S Alb->Tri again. Otherwise, it's a hornet's nest, and I'm not sure there's really a "wrong" answer...

We're going to try to move TYS to Rome supported by Venice and ION to ADR (just to cut any support), with AEG following into ION. I kind of expect Russia to hit Tyo, but I may be wrong about that... if somehow TYS has to retreat, it can do so to Naples, which would be open since Rom/Tun would not cover it.

Italy tried to retake Venice from Tyrolia, which didn't work due to me cutting support in Trieste and ADR. He moved back to cover Naples and moved Tun-ION, so TYS sailed into Rom quite happily. He also got pushed out of Tyrolia by Russia. Italy's unit in Tri was destroyed, but he could retreat to Pie, so he's -2 for this turn.

France tried for Belgium (and didn't get it) and pushed into NWS. England is holding on.

I am +3 this turn... now to think about what to build and start thinking about the attack on Russia (who still has his Sev fleet, unfortunately).

[Trigfea63]

Ok, I was sort of right about Italy - he moved Tun-TYS and Nap-Rom. I got into Venice. Russia tried to help with Trieste but it wasn't enough as ADR continued to support Tri. He (Russia) is in Bohemia now, too.

England seems to want to die, France moved fleets back north and is tussling with Russia.

Ok, so what do I think Italy is going to do? If he tries to move and unit back to Venice with support, I should be able to take Trieste, so we'll have Ser S Alb->Tri again. Otherwise, it's a hornet's nest, and I'm not sure there's really a "wrong" answer...

We're going to try to move TYS to Rome supported by Venice and ION to ADR (just to cut any support), with AEG following into ION. I kind of expect Russia to hit Tyo, but I may be wrong about that... if somehow TYS has to retreat, it can do so to Naples, which would be open since Rom/Tun would not cover it.

Italy tried to retake Venice from Tyrolia, which didn't work due to me cutting support in Trieste and ADR. He moved back to cover Naples and moved Tun-ION, so TYS sailed into Rom quite happily. He also got pushed out of Tyrolia by Russia. Italy's unit in Tri was destroyed, but he could retreat to Pie, so he's -2 for this turn.

France tried for Belgium (and didn't get it) and pushed into NWS. England is holding on.

I am +3 this turn... now to think about what to build and start thinking about the attack on Russia (who still has his Sev fleet, unfortunately).

Whew! You can breathe a sigh of relief. Bot-Russia didn't attack, and now you've got 3 builds. Nice.

In terms of next steps, Russia sure has a lot of units lined up along your border. Is there an alternative path to 18 that doesn't have to go through that brick wall? Moving fleets out through the Med to Iberia and beyond?

[DougJoe]

Whew! You can breathe a sigh of relief. Bot-Russia didn't attack, and now you've got 3 builds. Nice.

In terms of next steps, Russia sure has a lot of units lined up along your border. Is there an alternative path to 18 that doesn't have to go through that brick wall? Moving fleets out through the Med to Iberia and beyond?

I did not expect Russia to attack, and I still don't - the bots (especially Russia in a Juggernaut) seem to "stop" once they've gotten so far. But we'll see. I don't think the idea of going west to Iberia is a bad one - I've done it before - but I always like the mental exercise of "if I was to attack this bot now, what would it look like?" My attack on Russia (when it comes) will probably have to come through Bul/BLA/Arm to Sev, and I only have two more centers that I'm counting on getting right now. So those two builds may be the ones that go to that purpose, it depends how the west goes.

Builds this turn will be A Con, A Ank, F Smy. Considered three armies as well.

[DougJoe]

I did not expect Russia to attack, and I still don't - the bots (especially Russia in a Juggernaut) seem to "stop" once they've gotten so far. But we'll see. I don't think the idea of going west to Iberia is a bad one - I've done it before - but I always like the mental exercise of "if I was to attack this bot now, what would it look like?" My attack on Russia (when it comes) will probably have to come through Bul/BLA/Arm to Sev, and I only have two more centers that I'm counting on getting right now. So those two builds may be the ones that go to that purpose, it depends how the west goes.

Builds this turn will be A Con, A Ank, F Smy. Considered three armies as well.

At this point, Italy only has two real options: Tun->ION S Nap or Nap->ION S Tun. I'm going to guess that he's going to play the former and play Tun->ION, so we move ION->Nap S Rom and backfill ION with AEG (which bounces in that case, but no big deal). On top of that, we're going to continue to trust Russia and move the Armies around: Ven->Apu to cut off a potential retreat space for Naples, Tri->Ven, Ser->Tri, Con->Bul, Ank->Con. If I've guessed wrong and I don't get Naples this turn, the army in Apu should let me guarantee it in the fall.

Wouldn't be surprised if Russia moves to Pie.

[Trigfea63]

The Autumn '02 moves processed in my Austria game. The highlight: Turkey pulled out of Serbia! Good call, Doug! He didn't go for Rumania, he went to Bulgaria with support from CON:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

It's probably about an equally good result. Russia is in Rumania still, not ideal. If Turkey had dislodged him he'd be in Galicia, also not ideal. In theory, he could now move RUM-->SER. But I don't think he will. He built an army in Moscow, and I predict he'll play MOS S SEV, UKR S RUM. If I'm right, that means Turkey won't dislodge the Rumania army anytime soon, so it won't retreat into Serbia, and I don't necessarily need to cover. Still, I'm considering BUD-->SER. Just to show the bot-brains that I care about defending my centers. Maybe I'd move it back to Budapest in the Autumn.

Italy did not do quite what I predicted. He ordered TYR-->TRI supported by VEN, as I thought. And TUN-->ION, as I thought. But he ordered Apulia to support Tunis moving to the Ionian. That's not illogical, it kept me out of the Ionian. But it left Venice exposed. If I had played the most straightforward attack, TRI-->VEN supported by ADR, and VIE-->TRI to cover, I would have taken Venice. Of course, that would have been a pretty risky moveset. But now, knowing how the bot-brain works, I think Italy might repeat those orders. Maybe not, maybe he'll switch it up. This is worth watching closely. I'll probably play the same orders again in Spring '03 and see what happens: VIE S TRI, GRE-->ION supported by ADR.

The most interesting development in the rest of Europe is France's move to Marseilles. Does he continue on to Piedmont, or is it just to defend Burgundy (BUR-->BEL, PAR support MAR-->BUR)?

My guess is that France is just defending Burgundy. I'll be more surprised if he moves to Pie, but that's what you want, of course.

I like your thoughts on seeing what Italy does in the spring to try to predict the fall. The question then becomes what to do with Bud this turn?

I went ahead with the above moves in Spring '03. VIE S TRI, GRE-->ION supported by ADR, BUD-->SER. Russia support-held RUM and SEV, as I anticipated. Turkey attacked Russia, unsuccessfully. Here are the Spring '03 results on the large map:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I'd like to be able to help Turkey take Rumania. We have a tentative alliance. An Austrian support that gains Turkey a Russian SC could help strengthen the alliance. And I could surely use an ally. The trouble is, I can't really support Turkey into Rumania without covering BUD and SER, which would occupy two of my three armies. I can't spare two armies to help Turkey. I'm just going to have to hope something breaks with Italy before Turkey gets frustrated with me and pivots his attack.

What could break with Italy? The prospects for outside interference are slim. France's Marseilles army did indeed move to Burgundy, not Piedmont. Germany offered to support my Trieste army into Tyrolia, but I don't want to move to Tyrolia. It's the same problem I have with Turkey: I can't spread my three armies that thin.

There is an old Swedish proverb, "The best place to find a helping hand is at the end of your own arm." I think I've got to take a shot at Venice this autumn. If it doesn't work, I'll be in some trouble. But I'll also be in some trouble if I just stand in place. Time is on Italy's side.

There are two possible options: TRI-->VEN supported by ADR, or the other way around. So, which support will Italy cut? In Autumn '02 he cut TRI, and in Spring '03 he cut ADR. Is the Italian bot-brain alternating between the two movesets? Is it more likely to repeat the last moveset? I have almost no basis on which to predict. I suppose all things being equal, the safer course is ADR-->VEN supported by TRI, and VEN-->TYR to cut that support. Then at least if I don't capture Venice, Trieste is at least protected from an Italian attack (the cut-support defense). Unless some other brilliant plan appears, that's what I'll do.

[DougJoe]

I'm gonna "cross the streams here" so forgive me.

I went ahead with the above moves in Spring '03. VIE S TRI, GRE-->ION supported by ADR, BUD-->SER. Russia support-held RUM and SEV, as I anticipated. Turkey attacked Russia, unsuccessfully. Here are the Spring '03 results on the large map:

https://webdiplomacy.net/map.php?gameID ... Type=large

I'd like to be able to help Turkey take Rumania. We have a tentative alliance. An Austrian support that gains Turkey a Russian SC could help strengthen the alliance. And I could surely use an ally. The trouble is, I can't really support Turkey into Rumania without covering BUD and SER, which would occupy two of my three armies. I can't spare two armies to help Turkey. I'm just going to have to hope something breaks with Italy before Turkey gets frustrated with me and pivots his attack.

What could break with Italy? The prospects for outside interference are slim. France's Marseilles army did indeed move to Burgundy, not Piedmont. Germany offered to support my Trieste army into Tyrolia, but I don't want to move to Tyrolia. It's the same problem I have with Turkey: I can't spread my three armies that thin.

There is an old Swedish proverb, "The best place to find a helping hand is at the end of your own arm." I think I've got to take a shot at Venice this autumn. If it doesn't work, I'll be in some trouble. But I'll also be in some trouble if I just stand in place. Time is on Italy's side.

There are two possible options: TRI-->VEN supported by ADR, or the other way around. So, which support will Italy cut? In Autumn '02 he cut TRI, and in Spring '03 he cut ADR. Is the Italian bot-brain alternating between the two movesets? Is it more likely to repeat the last moveset? I have almost no basis on which to predict. I suppose all things being equal, the safer course is ADR-->VEN supported by TRI, and VEN-->TYR to cut that support. Then at least if I don't capture Venice, Trieste is at least protected from an Italian attack (the cut-support defense). Unless some other brilliant plan appears, that's what I'll do.

I think you are right to take the shot at Venice. Not much else you can do otherwise, and you definitely don't want to give R/T time to mend fences (which I've seen happen with the bots.) I like the Swedish proverb. I'll have to remember that one.

At this point, Italy only has two real options: Tun->ION S Nap or Nap->ION S Tun. I'm going to guess that he's going to play the former and play Tun->ION, so we move ION->Nap S Rom and backfill ION with AEG (which bounces in that case, but no big deal). On top of that, we're going to continue to trust Russia and move the Armies around: Ven->Apu to cut off a potential retreat space for Naples, Tri->Ven, Ser->Tri, Con->Bul, Ank->Con. If I've guessed wrong and I don't get Naples this turn, the army in Apu should let me guarantee it in the fall.

Wouldn't be surprised if Russia moves to Pie.

Well, I was correct about Italy and I got into Naples... but I was very wrong about Russia, who took Trieste (if I'd played the other set of moves I was considering - Tri and Ser S Ven, I would not have lost it... or if I'd played the other set of builds I was thinking - F Ank, A Con, A Smy, Smy-Arm,Con-BLA... but that's water under the bridge).

So now I have to figure out how to deal with the insolent Russian. The good news is that Naples offsets Trieste and for whatever weird reason Russia didn't move to BLA, which would have been crushing... the bad news is that Serbia is in trouble.

There are several things I'd like to acompish this turn but I don't think I can do them all:
-Defend Serbia
-Move armies back from Italy to flank Trieste
-Get a fleet back towards BLA
-Move armies towards Serbia

So this one's gonna take some time to puzzle out.

[Trigfea63]

I'm gonna "cross the streams here" so forgive me.

It's just you and me contributing to this thread now, so I think we can do whatever we want TBH, crossing the streams makes it a bit easier for me to follow the thread. It reduces the chances I'll accidentally skip over one of your posts. Maybe other viewers feel the same.

Well, I was correct about Italy and I got into Naples... but I was very wrong about Russia, who took Trieste (if I'd played the other set of moves I was considering - Tri and Ser S Ven, I would not have lost it... or if I'd played the other set of builds I was thinking - F Ank, A Con, A Smy, Smy-Arm,Con-BLA... but that's water under the bridge).

So now I have to figure out how to deal with the insolent Russian. The good news is that Naples offsets Trieste and for whatever weird reason Russia didn't move to BLA, which would have been crushing... the bad news is that Serbia is in trouble.

There are several things I'd like to acompish this turn but I don't think I can do them all:
-Defend Serbia
-Move armies back from Italy to flank Trieste
-Get a fleet back towards BLA
-Move armies towards Serbia

So this one's gonna take some time to puzzle out.

The "insolent" Russian, that's the spirit! (And great word.) I also want to add, as much to remind myself as anything, the nature of guessing the bots' moves is that we sometimes guess wrong. That doesn't mean we played the "wrong" moves. To the contrary, we must have conviction about our guesses, otherwise we will waffle endlessly over possible bot-moves and countermoves. Your substantial experience with the bots told you Russia probably wouldn't attack, and it was correct to make your moves accordingly.

Since it's a fall season upcoming, "Defend Serbia" would seem to be the highest priority among the objectives listed. You don't want to remove any units this winter, nor do you want to give the insolent Russian more than 1 build.