MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

there’s also this awkward dynamic where I literally haven’t rolled mafia here since spring 2018 due to long absences and good RNG, and quite a few people who are very established players just have not seen a mafia game from me in the flesh. I don’t think anybody’s seen what I would call a relevant sample. so there’s lingering paranoia that this might be the game.

anyway, maybe I really am just reading the room wrong, bc my first reaction is that the dargo nightkill is really informative, but everyone is just kinda like “eh.”

I also find it informative and you're a key member in a set of people who would push for it as scum.

Why do you reckon? The only thing I’ve really sorted is that the mafia are not feeling under the gun, which points to Byz being town. (If he were mafia then I’d probably expect more of a bus out of the gate with a PR hunting play—cut your losses and move on type of thing.) But I don’t feel like I have a strong grasp beyond that, so I’d be interested in your insights. I don’t even care if you think I belong in that pool, I might even agree with you, but at the moment I don’t really get it and my kneejerk reaction is somewhere in the ballpark of “nuh-uh!”

[ghug]

##VOTE bona

[celaph]

RIP damo

I think we need to seriously consider that pyxxy was trying to cause a tie there.

Likely the opposite. I think Pyxxy's vote going through decreases the chance of a tie by ensuring the number of people with relevant votes is odd. Assuming his vote goes through, we can only tie if one of the vote changing tags is off the wagons and the other is on the right wagon to make a difference. As for why he didn't vote earlier, I'm not entirely sure. @Pyxxy, if you haven't said already, why didn't you vote earlier?

One random thought is if Pyxxy and Byz are scum, does Pyxxy intentionally vote just after the deadline so that he can 'vote' for scum knowing his vote will be invalid?

This is less true with the vote altering nametags and a third of people on vanity wagons. It undoes any potential pile-on.

I did consider the fake bus possibility, but ultimately I don't think that's likely to garner any cred, and it's quite the thing to come up with under pressure and with votes flying, so I don't think it's that likely.

Two valid points.

[celaph]

RIP damo

I think we need to seriously consider that pyxxy was trying to cause a tie there.

Likely the opposite. I think Pyxxy's vote going through decreases the chance of a tie by ensuring the number of people with relevant votes is odd. Assuming his vote goes through, we can only tie if one of the vote changing tags is off the wagons and the other is on the right wagon to make a difference. As for why he didn't vote earlier, I'm not entirely sure. @Pyxxy, if you haven't said already, why didn't you vote earlier?

One random thought is if Pyxxy and Byz are scum, does Pyxxy intentionally vote just after the deadline so that he can 'vote' for scum knowing his vote will be invalid?

Hi Celaph!

I wrote a partial explanation somewhere in the beginning of N1 but I refreshed and saw it wasn't tied, posted about not moving then refreshed my bot tab and the bot said it was tied, so I tried to rush back to the thread to vote to avoid a tie but the bot didn't have Vecna's re-re-flip yet

I buy this.

[snowy801]

This is mind numbing

It is unimaginable how little I care about content I wasn't involved in

[worcej]

It directly contradicts what you said and demonstrates you haven’t been paying attention

To your one vote on Bona with a sarcastic reference to anime with zero contextual backup?

I didn't miss it - I just thought that it was rather bullshit.

I’m not trying to rub your nose in it bro, really, it’s just really clear that you were firing from the hip without really catching up. Please don’t double down on flat out objectively incorrect statements.

You're entitled to whatever opinion you want on this. I don't think your vote for bona is really serious - which I address below.

I’ve mentioned already that darg getting NK’d caught me by surprise. It shouldn’t be much of a surprise that I’m reconsidering things and trying to figure out what’s going on.

This is incredibly easy to fake and doesn't move my needle. It's similar to 'RIP' statements in my eyes.

Scum killed him for a reason they deemed important - wether that's a PR hint, lock reads in, or remove a calming influence. You shouldn't be at all surprised to you that he died IMHO - he wasn't really on anyone's scumdar and would be a very hard kill to push. But that might just be my emotion-less analysis mode kicking in here.

I’ve mentioned that I think Byz’s slot is still a decent chance to be mafia and that the flip would be informative about day 1, but I think you’ll see a gradual lessening in certainty on that because, after arguing about it with Sabi and Neon, I started getting the impression that I underappreciated how different their expectations for town play are, and that Byz might honestly have just been prideful and stubborn to the point of almost getting d1’d as town. I think my reticence to assume these negative character traits has been fairly well documented this game. It’s not a “tunnel,” it’s wanting to believe Byz is a better town player than the sorry showing we got.

I haven’t talked a lot about Bona yet, but I touched on the high point of the discussion. I don’t really want to go into details because he’s savvy enough to just give a plausible answer to my concerns and then go back to coasting like he has been since the damo flip. (I guess I’m tipping my hand a bit there but oh well.) These two reads are related as well—Vecna obviously disagrees here but I find it hard to buy the idea that Bona was choosing to bus Byz, so obviously if I think Byz is mafia I’m going to give Bona a pass, and if I decide Byz may actually be town then I’m going to have to rethink that pass.

So you have a case for Bona but don't want to present it because he could coast? This is incredibly unlike you to hold back a case because someone could counter it. You're all about going in guns blazing when you have an actual opinion - this seems forced to try to discredit me more than actually a read.

Look at how you're being combative back at me - why hold back because of Bona? He's barely combative and usually just posts zingers. Sure, we'll listen, but we don't think Bona is a prophet or anything.

[ghug]

This is mind numbing

It is unimaginable how little I care about content I wasn't involved in

I appreciate the +1s though.

[snowy801]

This is mind numbing

It is unimaginable how little I care about content I wasn't involved in

I appreciate the +1s though.

I haven't even been +1ing anything

[worcej]

there’s also this awkward dynamic where I literally haven’t rolled mafia here since spring 2018 due to long absences and good RNG, and quite a few people who are very established players just have not seen a mafia game from me in the flesh. I don’t think anybody’s seen what I would call a relevant sample. so there’s lingering paranoia that this might be the game.

anyway, maybe I really am just reading the room wrong, bc my first reaction is that the dargo nightkill is really informative, but everyone is just kinda like “eh.”

I also find it informative and you're a key member in a set of people who would push for it as scum.

Why do you reckon? The only thing I’ve really sorted is that the mafia are not feeling under the gun, which points to Byz being town. (If he were mafia then I’d probably expect more of a bus out of the gate with a PR hunting play—cut your losses and move on type of thing.) But I don’t feel like I have a strong grasp beyond that, so I’d be interested in your insights. I don’t even care if you think I belong in that pool, I might even agree with you, but at the moment I don’t really get it and my kneejerk reaction is somewhere in the ballpark of “nuh-uh!”

I addressed it somewhat above already - but darg was not going to be an easy push and would require more effort than necessary. Also, a super savvy scumbro may have grasped at this as a hint from darg:

For the joke phase: what does a farmer say when he can't find his tractor?



Where's my tractor?

Is this reaching too much to think farmer = flourist? Not in my eyes, especially if scum are actively looking for PRs to hit to take some strength away from the town.

The other typical N1 kills (Vecna and rdr are the top ones in my eyes) have a lot of doubt sprinkled at them already, so why waste the easy case a scumbro can make?

[worcej]

While flourist is a meh PR, it was a PR that can confirm nametags in the event a claim-off comes up.

[worcej]

Since the role is gone now, the value I saw in killing it is that scum now also have one less person that can steal tags away from them as the game progresses.

The Double-vote, GF tag, and Deathbomb are fucking scary in the hands of the scum team.

[snowy801]

Since the role is gone now, the value I saw in killing it is that scum now also have one less person that can steal tags away from them as the game progresses.

The Double-vote, GF tag, and Deathbomb are fucking scary in the hands of the scum team.

Decent chance the deathbomb is probably in their hands already

[ghug]

I'm a big fan of scum getting the extra vote, personally.

[snowy801]

I kinda wanna peek ngl

[ghug]

I kinda wanna peek ngl

The other time we did this it was strictly bad and like half the game did it anyway, so I can't imagine there are many holdouts at this point.

[snowy801]

I kinda wanna peek ngl

The other time we did this it was strictly bad and like half the game did it anyway, so I can't imagine there are many holdouts at this point.

I'll probably do it tomorrow, or I guess maybe eod today if I'm looking dead

[President Eden]

I’ve typed and deleted like [s]three[/s] four, now, as of finally submitting this one, drafts to worcej that all eventually ended up being ruder than I wanted, so suffice to say that:

1. I pretty clearly had darg in my POE, and I don’t even recall anybody giving him a clear town read—not to say it didn’t happen but that he certainly wasn’t out of the POE enough to warrant an n1 kill for that reason alone;

2. the farmer = florist thing might be legit, fair enough on that. I don’t really see how that reflects on me, but if you wanted to force this narrative as you very plainly want to force it, I guess that’s something I might have picked up on. I didn’t, but the nature of not noticing something is that I don’t really have anything to point to that shows I didn’t, so I can’t really disprove it.

I have a lot more I’d like to say, but I feel like so much of what I’ve already said is falling on deaf ears that there’s no point.

[President Eden]

wait, how long have we not had strikethrough? embarrassing

[President Eden]

there’s also this awkward dynamic where I literally haven’t rolled mafia here since spring 2018 due to long absences and good RNG, and quite a few people who are very established players just have not seen a mafia game from me in the flesh. I don’t think anybody’s seen what I would call a relevant sample. so there’s lingering paranoia that this might be the game.

anyway, maybe I really am just reading the room wrong, bc my first reaction is that the dargo nightkill is really informative, but everyone is just kinda like “eh.”

I mean… I want someone more socially intuitive than me to go through his previous posts and figure out what he said that might have been PR-indicative, or if it was just a coincidence.

And if he said anything PR-indicative, who would have been most likely to pick up on it.

worcej pointed out the farmer = florist connection already, which seems plausible. It’s player dependent, but “breadcrumbing” hints as to your role is a somewhat common practice so that you can win any claim battles against mafia falsely claiming your role. I do everything from not very subtle or funny in jokes that make me laugh to literally openly claiming my role truthfully depending on mood.

I’m not sure if darg is a breadcrumber but I think farmer = florist is a reasonable one if you assume that he was trying to crumb. Could have just been an unfortunate coincidence somebody picked up on.

As for who would do it… people that come to mind who have made some mega brain reads in the past are damo and Chaqa, but honestly I think just about everyone here has played enough mafia to have potentially found that. I’ll defer to smart answers on this from others because I feel like I’m pretty weak at this side of mafia play.

[snowy801]

I’ve typed and deleted like [s]three[/s] four, now, as of finally submitting this one, drafts to worcej that all eventually ended up being ruder than I wanted, so suffice to say that:

1. I pretty clearly had darg in my POE, and I don’t even recall anybody giving him a clear town read—not to say it didn’t happen but that he certainly wasn’t out of the POE enough to warrant an n1 kill for that reason alone;

2. the farmer = florist thing might be legit, fair enough on that. I don’t really see how that reflects on me, but if you wanted to force this narrative as you very plainly want to force it, I guess that’s something I might have picked up on. I didn’t, but the nature of not noticing something is that I don’t really have anything to point to that shows I didn’t, so I can’t really disprove it.

I have a lot more I’d like to say, but I feel like so much of what I’ve already said is falling on deaf ears that there’s no point.

Why do you think he's forcing this narrative, as you say? Your tone indicates to me that you view him as a misguided town being obstinate as opposed to scum malice: is this a fair assumption and if so, is there a reason for the distinction?

worcej also seems to seems diametrically opposed to you largely starting from your stated position on me (or rather byz), which you have conceded wavering slightly on. Given your previous hard stance, do you think it is a natural position worcej staked out against you here?