M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

The current state of the meta makes this exceedingly unlikely.

counterpoint: [vaguely gestures at things that actually happened in this game]

Yes, it should be approached on a per-game basis.

I don't see any reason to townread Bona, Chaqa has a history of bussing and has been weird, and RHK and brain are both townier but not locks. I don't see why you'd write any of them off entirely, let alone all of them.

ghug failing to shut town the all-town core that eden makes n2

[Bonatogether]

Like there was no transition of blamp posts from CELAPH IS Town to VOTE CELAPH LESSGOOOO.

All in span of 14 minutes?

Yes its eod, emotions are wild

But like idk it feels like signal?

Here's how the votes looked like around then:

00:22 ghu Cha➙Man 6 The 6 Man 5 cel
00:06 Cha Man➙cel 6 The 6 cel 5 Man
00:06 Bus Man➙cel 7 cel 6 The 4 Man
00:05 The Man➙cel 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:05 ghu Man➙Man 8 cel 6 The 3 Man
00:03 dam The➙cel 9 cel 5 The 3 Man

What's odd was Blamp number one vote for the whole day, Maniac, was still tied when he suddenly switched to celaph?

It's weird. I need to relook at this with fresh eyes.

I kinda dig his explanation though. It clearly was not image motivated, and I don't see why scum Blamp takes the time to try to save celaph if he's just going to move to kill him.

scum chat running total damage control

[Bonatogether]

Fuck you, man.

I'll sub out this time, I guess.

Don't kill Blamp. He's town.

feeling weird rereading this argument but googly doing his best as he's leaving

[Bonatogether]

##vote pyxxy
This guy is scum
everyone sheep me

i like the pyx here

[Bonatogether]

If the JOAT is able, I think it now makes sense to shoot either Flum or rivera.

I vote rdr

The bulk of the ghug "not voting scum" case collapses with Maniac as scum.
Jamiet lying when not under pressure to take out Maniac makes no sense as the alternative.

Rdr's reaction look like defeated scum who've lost 2 of their partners.

rdr is town, got it

[Bonatogether]

I will reread Blamp tommorrow. I suspect I should be able to read him pretty good. At the moment I'd still prefer Rdr but that's entirely selfish out of game reasons admittedly.

I guess I should put in some effort if I'm actually sticking around a bit longer.

setup for punting blamp into the endgame

[Bonatogether]

I skimmed ghug's ISO finally, didn't get much from it.
I do agree with his take that Celaph was likely bussed, especially with TFB being scum.

Celaph seems quite uncertain about his scum skills and I definitely see him volunteering to die and be bussed in a nightchat. I don't think I've seen TFB play as scum before but from what I know of him, he would want to keep playing.

That leads me to think if he was bussed, it would be players who weren't on him in day 1, but joined on day 2.

That leaves
pyxxy worcej BusinessLamp TheFlyingBoat (TFB doesn't really count)

I think the TFB voters on day 2 look a little better? Scum bus to get credit. I have no idea how close or tense that eod was, but voting scum while simultaneously looking bad after is not something that happens ideally. Honestly this eod is rich I might try to read it more closely to see if there's some more juicy context.

So that is
bozotheclown rdrivera2005 celaph Maniac Chaqa President Eden that look better.
Celaph doesn't count obv. Chaqa and Eden are almost certainly town. Maniac is probably town and Jamiet is probably a dick. Bozo is probably a clear. So Rdr is the only unknown right now here and this honestly makes Rdr look a little better imo.

Jamiet/Sabi/Ghug were on a vanity wagon, and I think they'd take the certain credit of a scum kill. This makes Sabi look a little better too.

So pyxxy, worcej, business lamp would be who I look for based on objective VCA not knowing the full contexts. I'll go deeper into blamp next, and then check pyxxy and worcej after.

does flum just name 3 scummates? maybe. i think he figures he needs cred asap and also it's flum lol.

he also tries to claim towncred in the 2nd to last paragraph.

[Bonatogether]

I skimmed ghug's ISO finally, didn't get much from it.
I do agree with his take that Celaph was likely bussed, especially with TFB being scum.

Celaph seems quite uncertain about his scum skills and I definitely see him volunteering to die and be bussed in a nightchat. I don't think I've seen TFB play as scum before but from what I know of him, he would want to keep playing.

That leads me to think if he was bussed, it would be players who weren't on him in day 1, but joined on day 2.

That leaves
pyxxy worcej BusinessLamp TheFlyingBoat (TFB doesn't really count)

I think the TFB voters on day 2 look a little better? Scum bus to get credit. I have no idea how close or tense that eod was, but voting scum while simultaneously looking bad after is not something that happens ideally. Honestly this eod is rich I might try to read it more closely to see if there's some more juicy context.

So that is
bozotheclown rdrivera2005 celaph Maniac Chaqa President Eden that look better.
Celaph doesn't count obv. Chaqa and Eden are almost certainly town. Maniac is probably town and Jamiet is probably a dick. Bozo is probably a clear. So Rdr is the only unknown right now here and this honestly makes Rdr look a little better imo.

Jamiet/Sabi/Ghug were on a vanity wagon, and I think they'd take the certain credit of a scum kill. This makes Sabi look a little better too.

So pyxxy, worcej, business lamp would be who I look for based on objective VCA not knowing the full contexts. I'll go deeper into blamp next, and then check pyxxy and worcej after.

does flum just name 3 scummates? maybe. i think he figures he needs cred asap and also it's flum lol.

he also tries to claim towncred in the 2nd to last paragraph.

this post is interesting and doesn't really fit into my theory of flipper!maccej. thoughts?

[Bonatogether]

I skimmed ghug's ISO finally, didn't get much from it.
I do agree with his take that Celaph was likely bussed, especially with TFB being scum.

Celaph seems quite uncertain about his scum skills and I definitely see him volunteering to die and be bussed in a nightchat. I don't think I've seen TFB play as scum before but from what I know of him, he would want to keep playing.

That leads me to think if he was bussed, it would be players who weren't on him in day 1, but joined on day 2.

That leaves
pyxxy worcej BusinessLamp TheFlyingBoat (TFB doesn't really count)

I think the TFB voters on day 2 look a little better? Scum bus to get credit. I have no idea how close or tense that eod was, but voting scum while simultaneously looking bad after is not something that happens ideally. Honestly this eod is rich I might try to read it more closely to see if there's some more juicy context.

So that is
bozotheclown rdrivera2005 celaph Maniac Chaqa President Eden that look better.
Celaph doesn't count obv. Chaqa and Eden are almost certainly town. Maniac is probably town and Jamiet is probably a dick. Bozo is probably a clear. So Rdr is the only unknown right now here and this honestly makes Rdr look a little better imo.

Jamiet/Sabi/Ghug were on a vanity wagon, and I think they'd take the certain credit of a scum kill. This makes Sabi look a little better too.

So pyxxy, worcej, business lamp would be who I look for based on objective VCA not knowing the full contexts. I'll go deeper into blamp next, and then check pyxxy and worcej after.

does flum just name 3 scummates? maybe. i think he figures he needs cred asap and also it's flum lol.

he also tries to claim towncred in the 2nd to last paragraph.

this post is interesting and doesn't really fit into my theory of flipper!maccej. thoughts?

oops blamp was town, im bad

[Bonatogether]

I’d probably also be open to shoot Flum, who I don’t feel has delivered upon the promised digging and especially playing the game with Lamp.

not feeling Lamp as the kill.

Rereading is so draining, I prefer interactions (which again, why is it suddenly active today?). I probably shouldn't have promised that. That said I'm pretty comfortable with my town read on blamp right now. Take it or leave it.

I have a feeling this game is going to be a long quagmire with many bitter feelings by the end, so I'm not overly fussed if I go here. I didn't go lying down though so the god thread can't claim I gave up like last time.

But something is up with DemonRHK. He's basically yelling at people until they don't vote him (or pretending to be drunk, that is not how drunk people type) which is all admittedly hilarious. But this is likely scum shooting the shit. There are no natural townie thoughts coming from him.

flum thinks he's walking dead here. he's just trying to make it by promising things and stuff so that town won't kill him.

hard shade on RHK makes me like him more

[Bonatogether]

12 guests watching me

which one of yall is lurking

[Bonatogether]

##Vote Sabi

I won't switch to Demon

after spending about 48 hours shading demon

[Bonatogether]

man flum spends a lot of time saying nothing

[Bonatogether]

Ok, I was starting a reread on worcej when I noticed this post which is honestly so useful and thank you worcej. So I got a bit sidetracked reading it.
I'm assuming all flipped townies are not flipper. If I'm wrong, then hey the game ends faster.

Also sorry if I've been cranky lately or unfun to play with. I really need to not play these during work hours because I'm always less joyful then. Thank you for not hammering me right away.

From 30 to 20 min left, I see the following:

• TFB move to Chaqa, from Kak, which can be seen as making more options for others in order to save himself since he was the leading wagon. Votes are 4 TFB, 3 Cha, 3 cel, 3 Kak
• Maniac pushes TFB up another vote, now up by 2 with 5 votes. I peg this as making a practical vote and Maniac provided explanation in his own words already that I read.
• Sabi move to celaph, from Kak. This makes the top wagons TFB and celaph (5, 4 respectively - next wagons 3 and 2). With no context available, this movement doesn't spark any concerns for me.
• Chaqa moves to Blamp, from TFB. Now have TFB and celaph tied at 4. Like Sabi, not concerning because there is 23 minutes left in the phase when it was tied.

@ the 20 minute mark, the VC is 4 TFB, 4 cel, 3 Cha, 2 Kak. Nothing blatantly scummy for me to want to dig into at this point.

From 20 to 10 min left, I see the following:

• Demon moves to celaph, from bozo. Celaph now @ 5. My take is this is consolidation - bozo isn't likely happening at this point.
• Kak votes for celaph. No vote prior to this, now up by 2. Need to review Kak's posts to see if this was a legit read or just saving himself.
• Chaqa moves to Kak, from BLamp. Cel still comfortably up by 2 votes.
• Sabi move to Kak, from Cel. Now wagons are less consolidated and we have a 5, 4, 4 situation with Cel, TFB, and Kak.

@ the 10 minute mark, I am questioning the votes from Chaqa and Sabi and will have to dive further for this reasoning. I'm interested in why their votes were moved during this time period.

From 10 to 5 min left, only one thing happens:

• TFB moves to Kak, from Chaqa. We now have a tied top wagon between Celaph and Kak. You can look at this move as ensuring he doesn't die (by putting two options above him on vote count) and I would default to this without any further context.

What shocks me is the vote stayed tied for 6 minutes...

From 5 to 0 min left, shit happens to consolidate:

• Maniac moves to Kak
• Celaph moves to Kak - self-saving IMHO
• Chaqa moves to Celaph - once again tying the vote...
• Bozo moves to Kak
• Blamp moves to Kak
• Jamie moves to Kak

The obvious question I have is why all of this movement explicitly to Kak and not celaph? I'd expect more dispersion than this, but it seems rather consolidated which strikes me as abnormal.

A celaph info flip grows in merit. If celaph is in fact scum, there is a small group of people who would fit the 'saving my teammate'. If celaph is town, then at least we know we're all a bunch of idiots.

This is quite nice because most people have flipped by now or been cleared.
Vote at the start of the 30 minute end of day is
Kak: Sab, Damo, Pyxxy, TFB
Celaph: Bon, Brain, PE
TFB: Bozo, Celaph, Chaqa, Snowy
Chaqa: Blamp, Jamiet
Bozo: Demon, Ghug

First interesting note is Snowy stayed on TFB pretty much the whole day and was nightkilled. His posting is a bit less verbose than what I was expecting. He threw shade on TFB, Demon, and Chaqa primarily. He then pushed for Celaph and TFB both being scum at night so he was clearly fear killed. He was definitely more focused on TFB, and I think it shows scum were prioritizing getting rid of TFB voters over Celaph voters and were indeed ready to let Celaph die. (But this would all be planned at Night 1) Day 2 I don't expect TFB bussers though.

Next, TFB voting Chaqa here is survival omgus. nothing weird.
Maniac boosting TFB to two ahead probably making scum sweat.
Sabi moving to celaph makes the top two wagons scum. At this point if scum don't act soon day 1 will be a scum vs. scum.
Chaqa moving to blamp out of nowhere just equalizes the two scum wagons.

Demon vote is the next interesting part. He jumps off bozo onto celaph.
His ISO mentions Celaph is his top scumread early on, but refuses to vote alongside Eden so votes bozo. It is here that he votes Celaph. Did he have a plan to bus Celaph? This is right as scum vs. scum is taking off. DemonRHK gets bussed up the ass a lot as scum (unnecessarily) in other games so I definitely see him not caring about bussing. The question is, would he? I think the odds are a lot better if he's familiar with Celaph as a player (and maybe TFB). People who have been around know Celaph doesn't like playing scum and is likely not long for the world but I don't know if Demon knows that.
Does anyone know DemonRHK's history with Celaph or TFB? If Demon is unfamiliar with celaph then I think this bus gives him a little cred.

Next is a bunch of town movement. Kak votes Celaph. Then Chaqa and Sabi both bump up Kak making competitive so his wagon is still competitive. This is town lead so a bit of a lucky break for mafia.

Next up is TFB moving to Kak (obviously not his partner) It sticks for 6 minutes before townies, celaph, and blamp voting the counterwagon jump on Kak last minute.
We know this last minute shift was entirely town (other than celaph). The one potential unknown is Blamp, but he was one of the last so it was definitely a last minute town lead movement onto Kak. So how brave was scum to let it sit when it was tied, and scum never actually caused the final push. This must have been less than ideal.

So this means scum were already locked in on one of the top two wagons and couldn't move, or weren't around.
People who weren't around to influence were worcej, rdr, and ghug.
It makes sense why those three are in a poe.

I think this looks good on Blamp. He was around for 6 minutes at a precarious position eod where it was a scum vs. town showdown. I do think he acts and boosts Kak instead of hoping for a town to do it first. He has quite a bit of nerve otherwise. Whoever acted first was likely what decided where the remaining votes go to avoid a tie so he had the power to shift it to Kak but didn't. It's a minor enough thing that he would have gotten away with it as scum and I suspect he'd know that.

Bon and Brain could be locked into a bus here but there is nothing suspicious they did vote-wise.
Pyxxy makes sense as scum here.

So tl;dr
Blamp looks quite good in new vote analysis.
Worcej/Rdr/Ghug admittedly make sense as absent scum.
Pyxxy and Demon also makes sense as scum, but Demon less so if he's unfamiliar with the players. Because would he bus the godfather over the janitor at a pivotal moment? But the tricky part is because of which scum he voted, not that he voted scum.

And I'm a little disappointed basically my conclusion is just further confirmation on a read I already had oh well. More to come.

something is in here but i'm too lazy to read it.
@brain @jamie @etc

just looking at the last 2 paragraphs, looks like this was a wallpost of nothing new, so i probably didn't miss much

[Bonatogether]

##Vote Worcej
I'll reread him more soon but he is in my personal poe and seems to be in a lot of people's.

'damn why is our flipper still alive >:('

[Bonatogether]

##vote sabi

Semi joke but also they’re one in my POE as potential scum still based on the celaph and TFB positions they took.

This is a bit of a weird vote to make. Hedging it as a semi-joke but sticking with it to the end when it was looking like it would work?

small series of posts shading the cej

[Bonatogether]

Chaqa how strong is your townread on Bona still? If you say > 98% I'll treat him as conftown.
And then if he's scum and we lose I'm blaming the loss on you.

people called this out at the time as trying to tear down the towncore

[Bonatogether]

i skimmed the bee movie script he posted and it appears to be unchanged. he didn't put anything in there as far as i can tell

[Bonatogether]

TL;DR for you lazy nerds

maccej looks WAY worse - strong case that he's flipper.
the pxy looks kind of worse, or kind of better
we have a lot of new info on what scum were thinking on d2
scum really did want sabi in the endgame.
rdr looks meh

[DemonRHK]

I made a post D3 about not wanting to let a scum flum get to mafia chat. I think anything flum says from D4 onward could be tainted with the knowledge he was going over one way or the other
As much as I’ve advocated killing subs…I gunk Jamie may be my other wagon of choice.