M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[pyxxy]

> oh I'll check the mafia thread one more time before getting ready for bed
> alright normal chatting
> oh this post looks long
> ....another fucking role claim?
> fuck this mafia just fucking dome me now my brain cant handle this put me out of my fucking misery

[BusinessLamp]

Anyway, why Flum is town based on end of day:

His frustration at Chaqa was very legitimate-sounding, and voting himself as a way to spite Chaqa and make him lose influence struck me as something Flum would totally do on principle. It struck me as out of character for Flum to call someone stupid as a way of lying and gaslighting them, which he would’ve been doing if he were scum. This, combined with my earlier one line townread of ghug, was enough to get me to reconsider and change my vote. But this isn’t where the townread ends.

Upon seeing that I had made the switch to vote Flum initially, Flum responds in his defeated post saying that I’m probably scum after all. When I switch back, Flum doesn’t immediately townread me, he asks me a question: If I were scum and Durga was town, would I take her out because she knows me, or try and fool her?

This question is a very obvious analog for his current situation, but I think the fact that he asks it reflects his thought process. When he saw I had voted him, he thought it would be because I was threatened as scum that he had more knowledge of me. When I switched back, his immediate concern became that I was scum and was now just playing with my food, as he was in a desperate position. When I adequately answer that, he makes the decision to trust me. He then asks me my town reads, which I took as asking my advice on who to trust at this end of day. He also asks me my read on Demon. These questions are ways for him to make the best informed decision he can as town — he trusts my judgment now and is looking for the best way to filter information.

His entire progression on me felt natural and expected. If he faked it, kudos, he got me. But I’ll leave this game confident Flum is town.

[BusinessLamp]

like if bozo wasn’t clear he’d definitely be my top scumread just based on how unabashedly wrong he is on me. idk how to filter that shit

[BusinessLamp]

> oh I'll check the mafia thread one more time before getting ready for bed
> alright normal chatting
> oh this post looks long
> ....another fucking role claim?
> fuck this mafia just fucking dome me now my brain cant handle this put me out of my fucking misery

you’re in this for the long haul bb get used to it

at least I might get the sweet release of death soon

[pyxxy]

> oh I'll check the mafia thread one more time before getting ready for bed
> alright normal chatting
> oh this post looks long
> ....another fucking role claim?
> fuck this mafia just fucking dome me now my brain cant handle this put me out of my fucking misery

you’re in this for the long haul bb get used to it

at least I might get the sweet release of death soon

MaFiAsLiP

[Jamiet99uk]

anyway, having carefully considered all that, I am inclined to believe there’s one mafia left among worcej, rivera, and Fluminator, and one mafia left among Chaqa or Demon.

I remain strongly disinclined to believe that Bona is mafia, and Lamp and pyxxy just don’t feel mafia to me at the end of the day.

I’m unsure about the order of the five I named. I’ll take a stab anyway. RGB 1.3.1 - no blues edition!!:

1. President Eden
2. bozotheclown
3. brainbomb
4. Jamiet99uk
5. Bonatogether
6. pyxxy
7. BusinessLamp
8. Chaqa
9. rdrivera2005
10. worcej
11. DemonRHK
12. Fluminator

What has Bona done to earn a strong townread?

. . .

Pretty verbose defence.
I will study it and comment shortly.

[Jamiet99uk]

i’m so confused about the mafia allegedly shooting jamie

What mad theory is this?

Is this related to Brainbomb's Doctor claim?

[Jamiet99uk]

I've looked back at D4 but can't see who apparently put forward a theory that I was shot by Mafia and Docsaved...?

For the record, even the Doc wouldn't know this for sure.

Can someone explain or direct me to the post? There was a LOT of D4 and I found it hard to keep up.

[bozotheclown]

I was annoyed how you were trying to railroad town to do something on a basis you've literally abused before as scum and something I know is wrong.

I find victim culture cringe and I don't want to give off the impression of "woe is me". It was just in the moment I felt the best thing to do was get you out of your tunnel since you're one of the main influencers of town righ now, but then even then you were setting me up to be a VT flipper which was just the unbelievably annoying to me.

I earnestly believe you are likely scum. I don’t know what else you want me to do.

Digging my heels in is something I do regardless of alignment. A few games ago I dug my heels in on jasnah being scum despite lots of flak and it forcing me to out myself as cop, but I was right. I generally am.

If you’re town, blame ghug, a lot of my read is based on him.

And your reason was you think ghug wouldn't bus Celaph there, despite thinking scum bussed Celaph?

ghug was suspicious because he voted for 8 players in the first 2 days yet never voted for celaph or TFB. It could be that he just incorrectly town read them, but by leaving the game he avoiding having to explain his votes. Also, the way he left the game was suspicious, because PE did not do anything to warrant ghug's reaction, all he did was state the reasons why he thought ghug was mafia. Then, on D3, you set yourself up at EOD to vote for your own survival over making any effort to identify someone likely to be mafia, continuing the pattern of questionable activity from your slot.

[bozotheclown]

That should say D4.

[bozotheclown]

It's not me

Why did you self vote for the last hour?

A variety of reasons all meshed into one.
Potential survival or smug suicide (both wins)/showing demon, sabi how cringey it is/ frustration at Chaqa. Take your pick.

Now it looks like you could have been bussing RHK. Why did you vote for Sabi over RHK at EOD?

[Jamiet99uk]

So let's examine President Eden's essay on Bona's town status:

It’s Day 1. You rolled mafia. Oh, no!

You mean "Yay, being Mafia is fun!" but ok.

Which of these situations most likely applies to you? <snip>

1. At a couple of points early in the day, you meme about your Godfather teammate being sus because of a recent string of rolling mafia.
At T-2:15, your Godfather teammate, who has a bit of an unfortunate reputation for being sussed out early (sorry celaph), has gotten some light to moderate pressure from people, but has no votes and isn’t particularly likely to become a wagon at present. The current trending candidate is a townie who has an unfortunate reputation for being sus and struggles to defend himself sometimes (sorry Kak), and isn’t really around to defend himself here. You immediately cast doubt on the townie wagon and cast the first vote on your Godfather teammate, continue putting hard pressure on your Godfather teammate, flatly declare that there is no case on the leading townie wagon, lay out a light but salient case on your Godfather teammate, then peace out for the last hour of the day, having built considerable momentum for your teammate’s death, rendering yourself unable to pivot if circumstances change, and openly calling again for people not to kill the townie lead wagon.

2. Among your many interactions throughout the town you lightly shade your Godfather teammate for doing a couple of sus things earlier in the phase. You express your willingness to vote your teammate at T-5:45 but note your preference to wait a day at a point when your teammate is catching a little heat, but not votes. You don’t really mention him again until T-1:30, by which point one townie has voted him, he’s much more heavily considered. You call him your top scumread at T-1:30, but then reiterate your desire to give him a day at T-0:50, call it sad that your teammate is getting votes when he’s finally starting to contribute at T-0:12, then join his counterwagon at T-0:10, which possibly triggers a cascading avalanche of votes for the counterwagon and puts it insuperably far ahead. You then go wildcard and switch back, which only further seals the fate of the counterwagon (although it remains unclear whether this is happy accident for you as mafia or master plan). You then find excuses not to conduct promised analysis on your wildcard play for an entire day/night cycle, at which point you accuse three people, one of whom has since flipped town, one of whom has been checked town, and one of whom appears townie (but in fairness their alignment is not resolved yet).

3. About 3/4 of the way through the day, you take notice of your teammate’s lack of participation. You don’t mention them again until you’ve been accused by a townie of being mafia yourself. You declare your teammate and your accuser as your top scumreads at T-4:45. Things get more intense between you and your accuser, and as your teammate starts to gain momentum you switch vote from the person you OMGUS to a since-mech-cleared townie who you’ve barely mentioned before now, while declaring your Godfather teammate to be your top suspect; yet you use your anger at your accuser as a pretense not to vote your teammate. You then switch over to your teammate after heavy heckling from townies about your inconsistency and at a point which puts your more suspicious teammate ahead of your less suspicious teammate, who has also become a wagon.

I submit to you that both #2 and #3 are reasonable progressions for mafia to have but that #1 really isn’t.

I agree with you that #2 and #3 are plausible.

I concede that #1 would be bad play but, and I mean no offence, we've seen Bona make questionable plays before, and Bona in general has a tendency to "peace out" and drop out of the game for hours on end, at times. He's done it several times in this game. Bear in mind also that scum!bona would know which of his team mates were, and were not, on the Kak wagon, and therefore how much slack Mafia still had in terms of being able to save Celaph if needed.

So I see what you're saying, but I don't think this is as strong a defence of Bona as you are making it out to be.

[Chaqa]

God you couldn’t have told me this 2 hours earlier??? How am I supposed to sleep now

I was planning to stay hidden til late game, but once you and others started throwing out the “omg Chaqa scum” stuff I figured it was better to just clear myself and head it off.

Plus, Braib’s doc claim had me wondering if he’s scum

[Chaqa]

Oh, and the JOAT should unequivocally protect eden tonight because I can’t

[brainbomb]

Obviously

[brainbomb]

Well then im not the doc I misread my role pm.

[brainbomb]

still think blamp should die and flum
and rhk and hopefully one of them is maf

[President Eden]

i am doing the fastest and laziest ctrl-f hunt while i can because i leave for work in the next half hr and will be unable to ctrl-f for the rest of the game

just going to point out that:
- jamie never gave an opinion of note on celaph d1
- jamie voted kak last minute based on “noncontribution” which, though not having to come from mafia, is pretty considering celaph wasn’t exactly ripping off bangers d1
- unless worcej is mafia then jamie has never voted mafia this game once
- jamie’s reason for not voting celaph was agreeing with maniac’s read on celaph, which we somehow all managed to give maniac grief over but completely ignored that jamie sheeped it, lol sorry maniac

jamie’s gotten a pass for much of the game for almost entirely mechanical reasons:
- at one point assumed to be an actual investigative role bc of maniac
- when maniac flipped vt, still assumed to be one for a bit and maniac was flipper
- when we concluded maniac wasn’t flipper we STILL townread jamie because “why would mafia do that?” well there you go sherlock holmes, especially if two of the team got caught and the 4th is not on stable ground (so more likely the product of being partners with rivera/worcej than flum/demon/super deep threat; particularly rivera IMO, as worcej and jamie have more engagement than jamie does with celaph/tfb)
- we wrote him off AGAIN when brain claimed doc with save on jamie

i present this NOT to accuse as i historically suck at reading jamie + i don’t have time to do a better reread + there may be something obviously exonerating i’m just forgetting.

but rather as a reminder not to forget him and to think about whether he’s the deep threat. because he’s pulled something similar before not that long ago (M63, he had a play that i and others concluded “couldn’t come from jamie,” and then in actual fact it did and we only got him by POE because aaron is a god tier cop). and we’ve had like 4 different mechanical reasons to clear him that have all turned out to be a bust, and i think that’s led us not to look at his actual play as much.

so yea.

[President Eden]

Well then im not the doc I misread my role pm.

LOL

[brainbomb]

anyway eden its pretty unlikely you could be mafia here I agree. I just wondered why you were behaving so oddly about bona. but its all good thank you for letting me have my paranoid delusional deep dive for a while there.

ive recovered