M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[BusinessLamp]

What has given you the idea that I am capable of saving town!celaph and I am shirking or half assing my town responsibility to follow through on it? I would have to convince at least 5 voters that my other scumreads are better than their own. I have produced a weak case on pyxxy which nobody really cared about, and beyond that I know snowy was after TFB alot and snowy died so TFB seems like a decent cw.

of my other scumreads everyone just keeps telling me no so ive just decided to focus on the ones that are possible that I feel strongly about.

Im not a convincing person and I never have been. people usually just think my ideas are wild theories with no validity and they prefer their own gut instincts and reasoning over mine

Why on earth would I kill Snowy if I were scum? If I were scum why would any mafia team let me kill Snowy there instead of a better target?

Like it doesn't make sense. Yes Snowy pressured me, but his attacks were weak and self defeating. If he were scum I would want him alive so he could keep making those self defeating attacks so that I could get free engagement points off of it and suck the air out of the room while not fearing being day killed given his best argument against me was that I kept running away from him and hiding when a cursory analysis showed that I had both talked to him and analyzed/talked about him a lot.

On the other hand killing him would lead to bad but easily eaten up arguments like this that are based on the logic that Snowy pressured me therefore I killed him to escape that pressure, which other voters are much more likely to believe than Snowy's presses, so it actually serves to drive up the heat on me which scum!me would want to avoid.

Somebody thought a lot about how he would deal with snowy if he were scum...

this is honestly really salient to me lol this TFB post is weird af

[BusinessLamp]

My shitty take of EOD1:

I have explained my reasoning:

• kak last post seemed sus
  
  I didn't think tfb should be a D1 kill

ok but you never said (from my memory) why kak's post was sus.

[BobMcBob]

Vote Count Version 2.2
TheFlyingBoat: (5) bozotheclown, brainbomb, damo666, rdrivera2005, celaph
celaph: (4) DemonRHK, TheFlyingBoat, Bonatogether, pyxxy
damo666: (3) BesharamSabi, ghug, Jamiet99uk
Maniac: (2) BusinessLamp, President Eden
Jamiet99uk: (2) Maniac, worcej
bozotheclown: (1) Chaqa

Currently TFB is set to cross the road

DEADLINE IS IN 7 HOURS AND 27 MINUTES

Fact: A chicken has 120 bones. None of them taste good.

[damo666]

Hang on, consider what PE's 65%-70% Bozo town means. If it means what people think it seems to mean surely he should have said something like 85%-90%?

Apols Eden if you were trying to draw a nk. Mind you, scum will be paranoid now so will prob nk you anyway.

Bit of a doctor's dilemma innit?

[Or PE miscalculated]

[BusinessLamp]

snowy was mostly sus of celaph-chaqa-tfb

And bozo and blamp

this is false. one post about us not being online at night (which i can easily refute because i literally said i was playing a live game and have video evidence lmao) does not equate

[Jamiet99uk]

Hang on, consider what PE's 65%-70% Bozo town means. If it means what people think it seems to mean surely he should have said something like 85%-90%?

Apols Eden if you were trying to draw a nk. Mind you, scum will be paranoid now so will prob nk you anyway.

Bit of a doctor's dilemma innit?

[Or PE miscalculated]

Damo sees a post with percentages and suddenly becomes excited.

There are two roles in this game that give false results. One gives a false inno, one gives a false guilty. There are 14 correct innos (but 13 if PE excluded himself) and three correct guilties. So technically he should have said "about 79% town" but I don't think this is a major issue, Damo.

[damo666]

Looking at Da1 votes in isolation the following makes sense as the scumteam

TFB celaph Maniac Sabi

[damo666]

Hang on, consider what PE's 65%-70% Bozo town means. If it means what people think it seems to mean surely he should have said something like 85%-90%?

Apols Eden if you were trying to draw a nk. Mind you, scum will be paranoid now so will prob nk you anyway.

Bit of a doctor's dilemma innit?

[Or PE miscalculated]

Damo sees a post with percentages and suddenly becomes excited.

There are two roles in this game that give false results. One gives a false inno, one gives a false guilty. There are 14 correct innos (but 13 if PE excluded himself) and three correct guilties. So technically he should have said "about 79% town" but I don't think this is a major issue, Damo.

No.

The assumption is an inno scan. Possibilities are 9 vt 2 PR and GF. So prob town is 11/12. [12/13 if Kak was flipper]. Where do you get 79% from?

Again apols to PE.

[BusinessLamp]

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":

i think im

chaqa>celaph>demon

at this point. debating first two

so my situation was that i came into the thread with 10 min left with no idea of what the vote count was. IIRC there wasnt really an up to date one readily available, it took effort to figure out. because i wasn't able to follow the events of the last hour, i wanted to just sit back and let the votes go wherever without influencing anything. however, you voted celaph, and people said it was tied. and i honestly don't remember exactly but i think i was just refreshing madly seeing what would happen and staring at the clock. and then when bozo's vote for kak came in i just piled on to that to combat one other person following your lead and it becoming another tie. plus i was sus of you at that time so that made me feel ok voting opposite. i did see celaph's "if i die" post and thought it was different from last time, too. it was stressful lol

i think if i'm scum there, even if celaph is also scum, i just lurk and don't vote. playing as mafia is fun and i wouldn't want to risk my experience for my partner who is under heat day one, lol.

[BusinessLamp]

honestly a bit sus to me that chaqa gave into the pressure of people asking him to do the "what if celaph is scum" "what if celaph is town" analysis instead of just continuing to be lazy LOL

[President Eden]

Good morning, President Eden,

woke up. saw Jamie’s message. got mad. ruminated on situation all the way to work. got more mad. don’t feel like reading game. am mad. probably cannot objectively read Chaqa or Jamie rn. have I mentioned mad.

@Jamie — to answer your specific strategy, I think making up BS reasons to townread bozo would have been orders of magnitude worse than what I did. both as a general practice in a world where there’s a Godfather and in the specific scenario where I have four people crawling up my ass about not wanting to kill bozo. I am extremely annoyed, to put it lightly, that my situation has been prominently dragged to light—AGAIN—because someone else, who also doesn’t have any of my info or perspective on the game, thinks they know enough about my situation to decide that I played it wrong and that they absolutely need to blow up my play because they personally disagree with it.

Don't be mad. I'm not trying to upset you. I was trying to make some constructive remarks.

I did not suggest "making up BS reasons". I suggested that in your place I might have gone back and looked over Bozo's posts with the assumption that they were coming from a town mindset, and including any details you noticed as a justification for a change in your read. That's not BS, that's real.

I am sorry if my remarks upset you. That was not my intention.

I promise not to kill Bozo today.

I would be grateful if you'd actually explain your read on Maniac.
Or is that a secret too?

I thought my implication was clear, albeit (deliberately) stated cryptically, in my very first comment about bozo today, where I said he had a 92.3% chance of being town by random chance, but was “>70%” to be town bearing in mind his behavior. If I’m starting from the premise of an innocent scan making him 92.3% likely to be innocent by random chance (ie, that I knew nothing about him based on his play this game, and only knew that roles had been randomly assigned), demoting him to the ballpark of 70% means that I think he’s (considerably) more likely than random to be the Godfather. That also means that but for the innocent scan, I would actually think that on balance he is guilty. Indeed, the only exonerating evidence I have is the innocent scan.

So with that in mind, why the fuck would I lie and try to spin his suspicious behavior into being not suspicious to obscure my scan? That’s actively detrimental to town because it would hurt the town’s ability to sort through what bozo had done to determine whether my scan was faulty or true. Never mind that in the context of the discussion, it would have only served to draw even more questions and attention to what I was doing. It would have been an unsatisfactory explanation, not only because it would be false, but because it would be fairly clear that I didn’t even believe it. That impacts MY credibility, and in a game with a Flipper(!) I can’t afford to do that. Indeed, having flimsy shitty reasons for not suspecting an objectively suspicious player and then going “psych I have a cop scan inno” would CERTAINLY lead to this town hanging me without a counterclaim, as traditionally heinously stupid as webDip towns are in these situations.

It makes MUCH more sense to simply declare my belief that bozo is town, assign a percentage to it that would invite people to search my ISO to figure out why I keep saying it, and then find the original comment and work out that I had scanned him innocent; OR in the alternative, have them simply go “ok whatever” and move on, as I am a universal townread and thus people have no reason to be overly concerned about what an odd townread of mine means for my alignment.

The fact of the matter is that webDip towns are fucking terrible at navigating Cop info. Absolutely, heinously terrible. Last game y’all hanged Maniac when he had been scanned town because Demon wrongly guessed that despite the innocent scan, Maniac was Godfather. There was no critical thinking or reflection that went into the decision. Y’all just fucking did it and it was fucking horrible. So that requires me to thread a very fine line where I need to be unambiguous about what is my info and what is my speculation, not lead y’all astray because you WILL fuck it up if I do, AMPLE past experience shows this… yet ALSO manage to do it in a way that doesn’t openly advertise the fact that I’m the Cop.

I thought I’d come up with a good way to handle it. I very brazenly hardclaimed Cop immediately and intended to take refuge in audacity. It worked to this point as I was not roleblocked and probably was never seriously discussed as a possible roleblock target. I stated my info in a way that again, was intentionally cryptic, but that I believe was fairly easily discoverable if you searched my ISO for my statements about bozo. “92.3%” is a really odd number to just pull out of a hat and when you realize it’s “12/13” it should instantly be obvious what that means.

But no, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite happened. No one bothered to look it up. Instead, for reasons completely unexplained to this point Chaqa chose to advertise my PR soft very blatantly over and over again until I was forced to out to explain myself. That’s horrible. Then you Jamie decide to make it a topic of discussion again 9 hours later so that any mafia who happened to miss it the first time would be sure to catch the rerun.

It’s unbelievably fucking frustrating that at no point did anybody (except ghug, props to him) stop to think about any of this line of thought and just assumed there was no reason for me to make any of this play. I would think as a universal townread who had done a lot to set a pro town environment with a ton of experience in this game and superb results that maybe I would get some breathing room to play the game how I want. But no, for all Chaqa whines about people being ego invested and not letting others play their own way, what does he do when the chips are down but act exactly in accord with the behavior he allegedly despises.

Y’all ruined a good thing and sucked all drive out of me to play this game at 100% effort

[BusinessLamp]

Point of Interest #1: Why was Maniac so sure celaph would be town? This to me could be potentially a scum pocketing a player who is widely scumread in order to gain credibility.

I really do think this is the most unnatural stance of anything, which gives me the most doubt of celaph being scum. The scenario where celaph is town and Maniac is scum doing this makes so much more sense. Because otherwise there's no explanation for Maniac's actions. So therefore celaph is town and Maniac is scum.

[Jamiet99uk]

Hang on, consider what PE's 65%-70% Bozo town means. If it means what people think it seems to mean surely he should have said something like 85%-90%?

Apols Eden if you were trying to draw a nk. Mind you, scum will be paranoid now so will prob nk you anyway.

Bit of a doctor's dilemma innit?

[Or PE miscalculated]

Damo sees a post with percentages and suddenly becomes excited.

There are two roles in this game that give false results. One gives a false inno, one gives a false guilty. There are 14 correct innos (but 13 if PE excluded himself) and three correct guilties. So technically he should have said "about 79% town" but I don't think this is a major issue, Damo.

No.

The assumption is an inno scan. Possibilities are 9 vt 2 PR and GF. So prob town is 11/12. [12/13 if Kak was flipper]. Where do you get 79% from?

Again apols to PE.

Sorry I was being too quick and lazy. I just did 100-(3/14) but I realise that's not right.

How do you get 90%?

[President Eden]

Hang on, consider what PE's 65%-70% Bozo town means. If it means what people think it seems to mean surely he should have said something like 85%-90%?

Apols Eden if you were trying to draw a nk. Mind you, scum will be paranoid now so will prob nk you anyway.

Bit of a doctor's dilemma innit?

[Or PE miscalculated]

Amended my last rant to also thank damo for actually doing what I was hoping town would do.

I demoted him to 65-70 because I was trying to also account for the fact that bozo behaved suspiciously this game. I am not actually a math guy so I don’t know how much weight to assign that behavior, so concededly 65-70% is a bit arbitrary. But it conveys the trend that I mean to convey — that his baseline is 92.3% town by totally random chance and through his actions he’s reduced that likelihood.

Put another way, by random chance he is 7.7% to be Godfather, but because he’s suspicious it’s more like 30-35%.

[President Eden]

Damo sees a post with percentages and suddenly becomes excited.

There are two roles in this game that give false results. One gives a false inno, one gives a false guilty. There are 14 correct innos (but 13 if PE excluded himself) and three correct guilties. So technically he should have said "about 79% town" but I don't think this is a major issue, Damo.

No.

The assumption is an inno scan. Possibilities are 9 vt 2 PR and GF. So prob town is 11/12. [12/13 if Kak was flipper]. Where do you get 79% from?

Again apols to PE.

Sorry I was being too quick and lazy. I just did 100-(3/14) but I realise that's not right.

How do you get 90%?

After N1, we lost 2 townies out of a starting 15. I am a third. So there are 12 townies and 1 Godfather who could return innocent. 12/13.

[BusinessLamp]

rather than spam the game with every posy pyxxy gave a +1 too here are three in particular that im curious what they liked from these posts and why they selectively picked these

I find pyxxy acknoledging my concerns but never actually explaining on the three posts I quoted any reasons why they gave those three a +1

It wasnt like I asked them to explain what they liked on every +1

I gave three examples

three

and they dodged even trying to answer and their return post was as slimy as can be.

@brain am I missing something about forum functionality here? Did I miss where you posted the three +1s that you want me to talk about?

Would you mind re-linking them for me?

idk if this has been done but it's the three posts right after he talks about the +1's that he quotes and responds to with ! and ? emojis on page 112

[BusinessLamp]

is everything im posting right now going to be lost among some PR discussion i havent read yet lol

[Jamiet99uk]

No.

The assumption is an inno scan. Possibilities are 9 vt 2 PR and GF. So prob town is 11/12. [12/13 if Kak was flipper]. Where do you get 79% from?

Again apols to PE.

Sorry I was being too quick and lazy. I just did 100-(3/14) but I realise that's not right.

How do you get 90%?

After N1, we lost 2 townies out of a starting 15. I am a third. So there are 12 townies and 1 Godfather who could return innocent. 12/13.

Urgh yes indeed my calculation also didn't account for anyone having died. Careless of me, sorry.

[Jamiet99uk]

is everything im posting right now going to be lost among some PR discussion i havent read yet lol

There's a 54.5% chance of that happening but do your best anyway.

[damo666]

No.

The assumption is an inno scan. Possibilities are 9 vt 2 PR and GF. So prob town is 11/12. [12/13 if Kak was flipper]. Where do you get 79% from?

Again apols to PE.

Sorry I was being too quick and lazy. I just did 100-(3/14) but I realise that's not right.

How do you get 90%?

After N1, we lost 2 townies out of a starting 15. I am a third. So there are 12 townies and 1 Godfather who could return innocent. 12/13.

Miller.