M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Gee thanks!

How do put Demon in Tier 1 ????

Actually that is a good question.

Presumably PE will refuse to answer it.

[Jamiet99uk]

Why do you scum read me?

You've asserted that you see my death as a forgone conclusion, yet you don't seem to care about the outcome of that conclusion nor believe that the conclusion will go your way.

I don't know whether you are scum but you are a good info kill. This is unfortunate if you are town but there you are. If you are town scum are not going to NK you so there will always be a big ? over you so might as well get it over and done with now. Sorry for being so cold about it but as I said before it's inevitable (barring drama).

I appreciate your honesty, but I also think that a pure info kill is foolish. If town have no better way of finding scum than killing each other, this is going to be a fast game.

+1

[damo666]

@zManiac did it in 2 today.

I’m handing you the keys to the puzzle solver mansion. Kudos. I took 5 today.

Tomorrow's word emboldened for you.

[celaph]

I suspect that all 3 of the main wagons with 30 minutes left (Kak, TFB, and myself), with the possible exception of mine, were prone to collapse if they lost momentum. TFB already had two votes not from direct scumreads, Chaqa and Bozo. And given Kak's lack of posts, no one really believed he was scum, only that they wanted to pressure him. I have the exception for my wagon given that a number of rather vocal people (you and Chaqa to name two) were putting sus on me.

TFB makes Chaqa a viable wagon temporarily. Chaqa becomes unfavorable as people consolidate elsewhere. Looking at the comments around Chaqa I don't think that the active people scumread him and at best saw him as an available cw who is better than someone else. I see nothing scummy about the way this wagon fizzled out.

Until Kak next posts, we see people consolidating onto me and TFB. We see Maniac join TFB's wagon inline with his previously expressed preferences. Yes, I still do believe his explanations for not voting Chaqa though I think they are suspicious. We see Sabi join my wagon as dey oppose the TFB wagon. And Demon consolidates onto my wagon from Bozo's. All that activity strikes me as normal consolidation and protection of townreads.

After Kak votes, the next series of votes all come on him. In my mind, people rushed to Kak's wagon because his wishy washy town felt scummy and they were uncertain on everyone else. As I've mentioned earlier, I think this is best highlighted by Sabi's comments from the time. I think deir switch from me to Kak exemplified the attitude that people were no longer just voting to protect their townreads, but rather because they scumread someone.

If anyone is protecting anyone, it's Chaqa protecting TFB here. There is certainly an argument that he started the momentum swinging towards Kak with his vote making that cw only to swing back to me once he know that TFB was safe. I think Chaqa's earlier vote for Blamp can also be seen as protecting TFB as it took momentum away from the latter's wagon. I do think it's worth knowing mentioning that after voting Blamp, Chaqa doesn't mention him again until 30 seconds before voting Kak. This can be seen as scum Chaqa correctly reading that he only needs to take momentum away from TFB wagon or it can be read as town Chaqa wanting his vote elsewhere (it was initially an OMGUS vote) with no intention to create a cw. I lean the former, but I might be biased as it aligns with my other reads.

[Jamiet99uk]

President Eden,

Since it is obvious what your schtick with your Bozo read was all about, I'm going to offer you some friendly constructive criticism. Your play here was pretty bad, but it could have been handled better. I hope you will take this message in the positive sense with which it is intended.

For some reason I very, very rarely roll Town PR. I am almost always either VT or scum. I'm not sure why that is. I think I've been a Town PR two times, certainly no more than three, and I've played nearly 40 games.

But if I'm an Investigative PR, and I successfully investigate someone that I was scumreading, and if I get an "innocent" or similar result, and presuming I didn't want to just out my role and declare my scan result, here is what I would do:

First, go back over the scan target's posts and re-read them looking for any snippets of information that would corroborate the new information I now have from the scan.

Second, begin to include that person in my townreads. Along with those reads, or at least, when questioned, I would also be able to give a reason for my updated read on that person. Something like "I've done a re-read of Bozo and I've noticed some things that fit his town meta rather than his scum meta. For example he doesn't seem to be tunnelling one or two people which he often does as scum. I'm not certain but I'd say he's 70% likely to be town"...

That way it looks like you had a reason to abruptly change your read.

What you did was effectively say "I suddenly townread Bozo for no reason! Don't question me!"

People notice sudden unexplained read changes, and naturally want to question them. It's no good expecting everyone to just assume you're a PR and fall silent, because (a) not everyone will, and (b) your sudden un-explained read change is a clear signal to Mafia, unless they're really not paying attention.

Just some thoughts, but I hope they were helpful.

Good luck for the rest of the game.



Best wishes,

Jamie T

[BusinessLamp]

@celaph: I 100% promise you that I will give a good faith consideration of not voting you today if you can give me a plausible narrative for what happened D1 in the world where you are town. If you’re town then you theoretically know by far the most of anybody on this subject, and it’s my biggest hang up on not moving off you, despite acknowledging that your recent posting has been more compelling. Help me help you help me catch mafia.

the fact that this post has not then been followed by a switch to a townread on celaph (when skimming through eden's iso) makes me pretty confident that eden is town. if eden were scum he'd pursue this as an avenue to keep either scum!celaph or suspicious!town!celaph alive.

[BesharamSabi]

I'm not seeing how boatman is scum this game.

What am I missing

On my side I want a viable wagon to Celaph so we have an EOD and I didn't like the way TFB answered about why he would not fear kill Snowy. He answered me that many people scumread Snowy, but it just doesn't match what I was feeling at night.

Iirc the only person not giving somewhat townie lean on snowy was Jamiet.

[BusinessLamp]

lol that jamie post above mine is a fun teaser for what's to come in the thread as i catch up. wth is happening

[BesharamSabi]

After much time away from thinking about it, my case on Chaqa is weak as heck.

Back to the drawing room.

[BesharamSabi]

Anyway I won't be around much of the working hours because I'm in the office and have back to back meetings. Will show up during lunch but Will also try to show up near eod but can't make promises.

[BusinessLamp]

I'll try to go back and look, but give me some explanation on the Maniac and sabi stances.

the maniac stance is mainly based on thinking his townread on celaph is weird and artificial, and to this point he has had varying levels of justification for it. it reads as some sort of ploy, and the reason i've felt like he's a potentially better vote today is because if maniac flips scum then i think it would be prudent for us to reconsider what that means for celaph's alignment. admittedly there's also a predilection towards getting rid of people that aren't going to produce as much content so we can avoid what happened last game where the late days had no one talking.

sabi has been weirdly stubborn on bad logic a couple points now, but i'm struggling to come to a conclusion on whether that means scum. examples being that maniac posting wordles is alignment indicative, my phone story being fiction, and chaqa's RB fiasco (imo). in iso, you see that sabi is a motivator for the kak wagon's momentum, and also worth noting they tried to dissuade suspicion on celaph earlier in the day.

Rip kak.

I'm sorry for thinking you were scummy.

this post (at start of night) also feels fake to me, over-justification of "my reasoning for voting kak was legit." there has also been an MO of overly repeating "i'm scumhunting!" this is accompanied by the spreadsheets, which i'm not convinced by. sabi just does a lot of weird things lol and it's been hard for me to make sense of what's scum-indicative but that's where i'm leaning

[BusinessLamp]

Assume it's genuine. We always suspect RB claims but I reckon 95%+ turn out legit.

I was not RBd.

This is a townslip, probably

Reading damo is a struggle for me because when he has been scum, his mafia game employs a lot of deception and intelligent moves in the main thread.

I read any 'slip' from damo as a potential fake slip.

@chaqa, this is what i'm inclined to think as well. curious why you're so willing to accept damo's townslip as fact

[BesharamSabi]

I'll try to go back and look, but give me some explanation on the Maniac and sabi stances.

the maniac stance is mainly based on thinking his townread on celaph is weird and artificial, and to this point he has had varying levels of justification for it. it reads as some sort of ploy, and the reason i've felt like he's a potentially better vote today is because if maniac flips scum then i think it would be prudent for us to reconsider what that means for celaph's alignment. admittedly there's also a predilection towards getting rid of people that aren't going to produce as much content so we can avoid what happened last game where the late days had no one talking.

sabi has been weirdly stubborn on bad logic a couple points now, but i'm struggling to come to a conclusion on whether that means scum. examples being that maniac posting wordles is alignment indicative, my phone story being fiction, and chaqa's RB fiasco (imo). in iso, you see that sabi is a motivator for the kak wagon's momentum, and also worth noting they tried to dissuade suspicion on celaph earlier in the day.

Rip kak.

I'm sorry for thinking you were scummy.

this post (at start of night) also feels fake to me, over-justification of "my reasoning for voting kak was legit." there has also been an MO of overly repeating "i'm scumhunting!" this is accompanied by the spreadsheets, which i'm not convinced by. sabi just does a lot of weird things lol and it's been hard for me to make sense of what's scum-indicative but that's where i'm leaning

Spoiler alert: I have backed down from the phone and Chaqa story after much thinking.

A lot of my not good connections tend to go away once I stop thinking about it and relook at things with fresh eyes. I have a bad tunneling problem.

[BusinessLamp]

I propose we make the counter wagons from pyxxy, flyingboat, and one of our absentee players worcej or rdrivera

discuss
I prefer we not use today to hammer celaph

+0.5 to getting another wagon going, boat seems like a fine choice to drive again

why is boat a good wagon? you drop this in and never mention him again. agreeing with the only person pushing you as scum on their other option seems a strange instinct

[BusinessLamp]

That's fair. I didn't announce this till end of day one so I can notice any artifical increases or decreases.

Not that you want my advice, but I'd do this exercise and keep it hidden until after D3 so that you have a lot more valid data to analyze and present to be helpful down the road. It's like VCA - it gets better the longer the game goes and more information trickles in - but isn't as absolute since a vote is necessary and binding but interaction can be faked or forced.

Going forward from here in this game, I find little value in anything you're doing with the sheet because of the fact scum know what you're tracking and can adjust accordingly.

The sheet is nothing more than a supplement to use alongside vca and what not.

Yea I kinda fucked up by announcing it early (I got excited over it and have been dying to do it).

is it excitement or is it less necessary to wait because you want the credit early and care less about finding scum

[damo666]

I'm not seeing how boatman is scum this game.

What am I missing

On my side I want a viable wagon to Celaph so we have an EOD and I didn't like the way TFB answered about why he would not fear kill Snowy. He answered me that many people scumread Snowy, but it just doesn't match what I was feeling at night.

Iirc the only person not giving somewhat townie lean on snowy was Jamiet.

Snowy was in my scumpool

[President Eden]

woke up. saw Jamie’s message. got mad. ruminated on situation all the way to work. got more mad. don’t feel like reading game. am mad. probably cannot objectively read Chaqa or Jamie rn. have I mentioned mad.

@Jamie — to answer your specific strategy, I think making up BS reasons to townread bozo would have been orders of magnitude worse than what I did. both as a general practice in a world where there’s a Godfather and in the specific scenario where I have four people crawling up my ass about not wanting to kill bozo. I am extremely annoyed, to put it lightly, that my situation has been prominently dragged to light—AGAIN—because someone else, who also doesn’t have any of my info or perspective on the game, thinks they know enough about my situation to decide that I played it wrong and that they absolutely need to blow up my play because they personally disagree with it.

— — —

do kind of not want to kill celaph though. would probably kill Boat or Maniac instead.

[President Eden]

it’s my genuine feeling that Chaqa should be hanged or shot by the JOAT for how he handled it, but I can’t separate being mad at him for how poorly he handled it out of my assessment of whether that would actually be good for town.

[Jamiet99uk]

Good morning, President Eden,

woke up. saw Jamie’s message. got mad. ruminated on situation all the way to work. got more mad. don’t feel like reading game. am mad. probably cannot objectively read Chaqa or Jamie rn. have I mentioned mad.

@Jamie — to answer your specific strategy, I think making up BS reasons to townread bozo would have been orders of magnitude worse than what I did. both as a general practice in a world where there’s a Godfather and in the specific scenario where I have four people crawling up my ass about not wanting to kill bozo. I am extremely annoyed, to put it lightly, that my situation has been prominently dragged to light—AGAIN—because someone else, who also doesn’t have any of my info or perspective on the game, thinks they know enough about my situation to decide that I played it wrong and that they absolutely need to blow up my play because they personally disagree with it.

Don't be mad. I'm not trying to upset you. I was trying to make some constructive remarks.

I did not suggest "making up BS reasons". I suggested that in your place I might have gone back and looked over Bozo's posts with the assumption that they were coming from a town mindset, and including any details you noticed as a justification for a change in your read. That's not BS, that's real.

I am sorry if my remarks upset you. That was not my intention.

I promise not to kill Bozo today.

I would be grateful if you'd actually explain your read on Maniac.
Or is that a secret too?

[Chaqa]

it’s my genuine feeling that Chaqa should be hanged or shot by the JOAT for how he handled it, but I can’t separate being mad at him for how poorly he handled it out of my assessment of whether that would actually be good for town.

Take the L bud.

Also Im starting to agree with your earlier post about not voting celaph.