M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

What has bozo done to warrant a townread?

he’s like 65-70% to be town

0%

[bozotheclown]

This actually means Sabi isn't linked too strongly to celaph, more so linked to TFB, which does reassure me a bit because I wasn't leaning too much toward Sabi being scum.

Seems like the link is celaph to Blamp and Bozo, which is EXACTLY what snowy was saying, and he got killed.

I think we got them gang.

You are pointing out the same thing snowy was, it is not like you came to the same conclusion by some other method.

What snowy also said was that he thought TFB was avoiding voting for celaph.

I mean I had pretty well defined opinions on my reads going into the EoD and explained my thought process throughout. Given I continued that pressure through the night and into today where I've been voting him since the first hour of the day, how do you reconcile your argument with my reads during D1, my N1&D2 posts, and my current vote? It's not like I was one of the many voters who had rushed onto Kak without an explanation. I gave a clear definition of my preference list and then gave the only real in-depth explanation of why I thought Kak's return post was scummy. It was wrong in hindsight but at the time it made plenty of sense given the reaction of contemporaries to it before the flip.

Yes, that is all reasonable. Or, you could be bussing celaph, which I would expect 1 or 2 mafia to be doing if he is scum.

[Chaqa]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Moreover. What changed ghug from your town core to tier 3?

What has pyxxy done to warrant tier 2?

Are you completely disagreeing with the connections between celaph and Bozo and Lamp?

How is Bozo tier 2?

This whole list is the kind of thing you would put me through the ringer for and use as a gotcha if I posted it.

First post of yours all game I’ve found outright scummy

[TheFlyingBoat]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Can you explain your Tier 2 to me? I can see where you're coming from with placements most elsewhere but almost your entire Tier 2 seems baffling to me. Bozo to me should be at the bottom of tier 3. Blamp around the middle, and Chaqa probably at the top. Pyxxy is more of a toss up to me.

[BesharamSabi]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Can you explain your Tier 2 to me? I can see where you're coming from with placements most elsewhere but almost your entire Tier 2 seems baffling to me. Bozo to me should be at the bottom of tier 3. Blamp around the middle, and Chaqa probably at the top. Pyxxy is more of a toss up to me.

I'm very confused by this list.

And also your list???

[TheFlyingBoat]

You are pointing out the same thing snowy was, it is not like you came to the same conclusion by some other method.

What snowy also said was that he thought TFB was avoiding voting for celaph.

I mean I had pretty well defined opinions on my reads going into the EoD and explained my thought process throughout. Given I continued that pressure through the night and into today where I've been voting him since the first hour of the day, how do you reconcile your argument with my reads during D1, my N1&D2 posts, and my current vote? It's not like I was one of the many voters who had rushed onto Kak without an explanation. I gave a clear definition of my preference list and then gave the only real in-depth explanation of why I thought Kak's return post was scummy. It was wrong in hindsight but at the time it made plenty of sense given the reaction of contemporaries to it before the flip.

Yes, that is all reasonable. Or, you could be bussing celaph, which I would expect 1 or 2 mafia to be doing if he is scum.

Why would scum!me bother "saving him" or avoid voting him as you have been arguing if my plan was to shade and bus him this entire time? Like it seems like it doesn't matter to you what my position was on Celaph or what Celaph's alignment is when it comes to your scum read on me and instead you'll ad hoc your way to maintain the scum read no matter the facts. Care to explain why?

[President Eden]

Why is sabi tier 1?

kind of hardcore doubt they actually go to all the trouble of spreadsheeting like this if they’re mafia. concededly there’s no reason they can’t have, but in my mind it’s a very low probability.

and I think they have been trying to solve the game in their own way. as we’ve seen in the past, their way is unfortunately easily replicated as mafia. but I think it’s genuine.

— — —

Moreover. What changed ghug from your town core to tier 3?

he’s been very peripheral today, lots of “engagement” in the somewhat hollow sense of talking back and forth with people about the game, a few claimed reads here and there, but I don’t really get the bigger picture of how he sees the game, which matters more to me as the game progresses.

that said I’m sure he’ll be around to help out with that soon… right? …right?

What has pyxxy done to warrant tier 2?

oh I just liked this post enough to move him out of null for now. looked engaged and thinking about the game harder than I reckon brand new mafia does. kind of like how once you finally did the work on your EOD1 play I thought “he probably doesn’t actually bother to do this as mafia.” but both of you could, so you’re only tier 2.

Are you completely disagreeing with the connections between celaph and Bozo and Lamp?

no, amusingly. I’m still working out what I think about Lamp’s EOD1 + N1. I think he’s been pretty townie otherwise so I want some more time to sort out the other people. in particular, if celaph is actually town (unlikely in my view, but possible) then I think a lot of the basis for worrying about Lamp goes away.
as for the theory, the issue is that Bozo is more likely town than not, so the theory is likely flawed. but as independent starting points it’s pretty decent.

How is Bozo tier 2?

he’s like 65-70% town

This whole list is the kind of thing you would put me through the ringer for and use as a gotcha if I posted it.

don’t be so dramatic

First post of yours all game I’ve found outright scummy

well that’s just a bad take, what you mean to say is you don’t agree with it.

— — —

Can you explain your Tier 2 to me? I can see where you’re coming from with placements most elsewhere but almost your entire Tier 2 seems baffling to me. Bozo to me should be at the bottom of tier 3. Blamp around the middle, and Chaqa probably at the top. Pyxxy is more of a toss up to me.

I think I covered all of these above in some form or fashion but feel free to ask more.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Tier 1 = strong towncore, do not want to kill in this group ever.
Tier 2 = leaning town, do not wish to kill today, but potentially open to killing later based on flips/etc.
Tier 3 = vaguely in the null space, probably don’t kill today
Tier 4 = killable today

Tier 1: Sabi, Bona, brain, Demon
Tier 2: bozo, Lamp, Chaqa, pyxxy
Tier 3: ghug, Jamie, worcej, rivera, Boat
Tier 4: celaph, Maniac

Can you explain your Tier 2 to me? I can see where you're coming from with placements most elsewhere but almost your entire Tier 2 seems baffling to me. Bozo to me should be at the bottom of tier 3. Blamp around the middle, and Chaqa probably at the top. Pyxxy is more of a toss up to me.

I'm very confused by this list.

And also your list???

I found Chaqa's posts today to make a lot of sense and even where I disagreed I thought the motivations behind them were townie whereas before a lot of my scum read was based on him arguing in bad faith and seeming to have non townie motivations behind his argumentation. Blamp and bozo look bad for the way they disappeared around SoN which is cause for suspicion as initially brought up by Snowy. Combine that with Blamp's EoD as pointed out by Chaqa and bozo's highly suspect argumentation for someone like him and it becomes hard to place them as high as Eden does. I'm not full on scum reading blamp yet, he's more middle of the pack as I said, but I do not think it makes any sense to town read bozo here

[TheFlyingBoat]

@eden can you explain bozo in a serious manner beyond this 65-70% bs?

[President Eden]

@eden can you explain bozo in a serious manner beyond this 65-70% bs?

it’s completely serious, I’ve said it several times today.

[President Eden]

furthermore I don’t think discussing it more is useful, so I won’t be

[brainbomb]

Some thoughts

Rdriveria - doing carnival gets him a pass for d1 I suppose
Damo - says he fell for bozo’s ruse and has contributed nothing so far. Hasn’t come under any pressure. I’d happily vote Damo.
Macca - flooded house gets him a D1 pass - hope everything is being sorted Macca.
Pyxxy - one posts that makes them look engaged and then very little follow up. I’d happily vote Pyxis today.
Bozo - unusually quiet. Hasn’t received any pressure. I’d happily vote Bozo today.
Celaph - I won’t vote Celaph today.
Chaqa - would vote for Celaph which makes me want to kill him now. Would more than happily vote Chaqa today.
Jamie - I’d be eggstatic to vote for Jamie today and any other day.
Snowy. Ghug and TFB - if push came to shove I’d vote for one of these.
I’d need a lot of convincing to vote for sabi, demon or Kakarroto.
President Eden is now off my kill list for now. ##unvote Eden

Rest are null.

Maniac do you still feel this way about these people?

[Chaqa]

furthermore I don’t think discussing it more is useful, so I won’t be

You have the subtlety of a stampede, but I get it.

[President Eden]

furthermore I don’t think discussing it more is useful, so I won’t be

You have the subtlety of a stampede, but I get it.

you could learn a thing or two

[brainbomb]

@Pyxxy and @Sabi - have we played together before? Forgive me if we've played and you were unremarkable and forgettable. If we haven't played together before, hi and welcome. I'm Maniac, just ask if you need help finding the bad guys/gals/NBs

I dont think theyve asked you for help.
does this make you think theyre doing great without your help?
or do you feel they need some hardcore maniacking

[brainbomb]

how would you measure the amount of help they need from you on a scale of 1-10 with ten being maximum maniac effort

[Chaqa]

furthermore I don’t think discussing it more is useful, so I won’t be

You have the subtlety of a stampede, but I get it.

you could learn a thing or two

You think I’m literally the only person who understood what you’re saying? You can’t make those kinds of comments at all. I’m not gonna pretend you didn’t do it when sure as hell everyone else saw it.

[ghug]

What has bozo done to warrant a townread?

he’s like 65-70% to be town

0%

It's amazing how you constructed a precisely equally bad take.

[Chaqa]

he’s like 65-70% to be town

0%

It's amazing how you constructed a precisely equally bad take.

You’re also scum, so it’s whatever.

[ghug]

I mean I had pretty well defined opinions on my reads going into the EoD and explained my thought process throughout. Given I continued that pressure through the night and into today where I've been voting him since the first hour of the day, how do you reconcile your argument with my reads during D1, my N1&D2 posts, and my current vote? It's not like I was one of the many voters who had rushed onto Kak without an explanation. I gave a clear definition of my preference list and then gave the only real in-depth explanation of why I thought Kak's return post was scummy. It was wrong in hindsight but at the time it made plenty of sense given the reaction of contemporaries to it before the flip.

Yes, that is all reasonable. Or, you could be bussing celaph, which I would expect 1 or 2 mafia to be doing if he is scum.

Why would scum!me bother "saving him" or avoid voting him as you have been arguing if my plan was to shade and bus him this entire time? Like it seems like it doesn't matter to you what my position was on Celaph or what Celaph's alignment is when it comes to your scum read on me and instead you'll ad hoc your way to maintain the scum read no matter the facts. Care to explain why?

Save yesterday, decide to bus overnight.