M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

They did include me in the townie list?

im saying he didnt list you as vt and youre the only person who has claimed vt

In fact I claimed 100% confirmed vanilla chicken ®

Could you not?

[TheFlyingBoat]

The only thing it helps me figure out is who is talking about who (and avoiding talking about who).

A good reference guide to compare to when people do reads and vca I guess.

run some numbers on how hard tfb is avoiding talking about me

Run those numbers for me, brain bomb. Tell me what you see. We've literally already litigated this point before.

[Chaqa]

A celaph info flip grows in merit. If celaph is in fact scum, there is a small group of people who would fit the 'saving my teammate'. If celaph is town, then at least we know we're all a bunch of idiots.

Is it worth killing another Town to find out that we are all idiots?

It’s a known fact regardless

[rdrivera2005]

Why on earth would I kill Snowy if I were scum? If I were scum why would any mafia team let me kill Snowy there instead of a better target?

Like it doesn't make sense. Yes Snowy pressured me, but his attacks were weak and self defeating. If he were scum I would want him alive so he could keep making those self defeating attacks so that I could get free engagement points off of it and suck the air out of the room while not fearing being day killed given his best argument against me was that I kept running away from him and hiding when a cursory analysis showed that I had both talked to him and analyzed/talked about him a lot.

On the other hand killing him would lead to bad but easily eaten up arguments like this that are based on the logic that Snowy pressured me therefore I killed him to escape that pressure, which other voters are much more likely to believe than Snowy's presses, so it actually serves to drive up the heat on me which scum!me would want to avoid.

I don't like this line of thought. Killing a big vocal poster (Snowy) that scumread you hard and that will never be DKed isn't a bad move, specially this early and with an obvious D2 wagon (Celaph).

Why would snowy be impossible to DK given he was literally DKed D2 in m1020?

I don't remember Snowy being miskilled frequently in the games I play (I didn't play M1020) and I didn't remember anyone pushing him this game.

[ghug]

what was that game where damo and rdrivera both claimed a janitored pr and scum ended up winning because of it

I don't remember the Janitor thing. There was a game I was scum with Ezio and when town decided to massclaim I claimed a possible role and Ezio just cc me out of the blue. I was really surprised and so angry with him that I got him killed and won in lylo. Probably one of the best scum plays I saw (by Ezio, he said he knew I will be triggered and it worked).

ya I was scum with you guys and was baffled at seeing that play out from dead chat

I tried to do this to Durga in a game but we guessed wrong on the janitor use and I died shortly after her.

[worcej]

A celaph info flip grows in merit. If celaph is in fact scum, there is a small group of people who would fit the 'saving my teammate'. If celaph is town, then at least we know we're all a bunch of idiots.

Is it worth killing another Town to find out that we are all idiots?

It’s a known fact regardless

The sound of the woosh over Jamie's head was heard all the way over here in FreedomLand

[brainbomb]

we can probably assume celaph is not janitor.

[rdrivera2005]

im saying he didnt list you as vt and youre the only person who has claimed vt

In fact I claimed 100% confirmed vanilla chicken ®

Could you not?

I already did it D1. You can believe it or not but I can't undo it.

[brainbomb]

we can probably assume celaph is not janitor.

and yes im beginning to think celaph is just defeatist scum based on their inactivty and disinterest

[TheFlyingBoat]

I don't like this line of thought. Killing a big vocal poster (Snowy) that scumread you hard and that will never be DKed isn't a bad move, specially this early and with an obvious D2 wagon (Celaph).

Why would snowy be impossible to DK given he was literally DKed D2 in m1020?

I don't remember Snowy being miskilled frequently in the games I play (I didn't play M1020) and I didn't remember anyone pushing him this game.

Damo viewed him as scum. I did. Eden liked that I did (though he mentioned he thought Snowy was intentionally playing poorly to avoid getting NKed). Ghug viewed him with concern. Celaph did as first before flipping to view him as good closer to EoD1. Demon called him sus for posting at that point 80 times with no real content. Maniac put Snowy in the same category as me, who he later voted for. Demon pressures Snowy even harder at night with some great posts. Jamie can't comprehend why period are townreading Snowy at all and makes his derision for that clear at night. Sabi called them a null but said something is off about them. Jamie then puts Snowy in his scum pool. And then night ends. The idea that no one pressured him or viewed him with suspicion doesn't hold up.

[Chaqa]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 1: If he flips scum
Prelude: I'm not going to go through every post by post and break it down that way, more I want to point out several players and moments where I think something is pretty weird, and it all revolves around Celaph.

Celaph wasn't much of a wagon for most of Day 1, despite a lot of suspicion on him. Eventually, this formed into a small wagon with Bona and Eden, soon joined by brain. At this time, TFB and Kak were 4-4 with no clear leader presenting. Some vote moves by TFB, Maniac, and Sabi pushed things to:

TFB 5 - Celaph 4 - Chaqa 3 - Kak 2

As I moved off the TFB wagon, Demon and Kak moved onto celaph, bringing him to a 6-4 lead over TFB (with me at 3 and Kak at 2).

At this time, I made my vote for Kak, to see what would happen.

Point of Interest #1: Sabi switches from celaph, to Kak, by saying "I don't like this TFB wagon". Why make this move? TFB wasn't the leading wagon, momentum was against celaph, not TFB. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum.

TFB switches to Kak (he had not expressed much sus on celaph). Maniac also moves to Kak (as he had townread celaph) and celaph votes Kak (self preservation makes sense).

I switch back from Kak to celaph.

It is now tied 6-6. Typically, when presented with a tie, people will move to break the tie in whatever way momentum seems to shift.

Point of Interest #2: Bozo, who hadn't posted more than twice in the last 3 hours, comes in and votes for Kak. He had never once mentioned either Kak or celaph prior to this. Bozo - why did you cast this vote?

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":

i think im

chaqa>celaph>demon

at this point. debating first two

Then Jamie votes Kak. Now, Jamie had barely mentioned either celaph or Kak, and with two voters already making the Kak choice, I don't really find Jamie's vote here that suspicious.

But I really do share Snowy's concerns that there is some link between Celaph, Sabi, Bozo, and Blamp. Maybe not all four of them, but if celaph is scum, I am pretty certain at least two of them are his teammates.

[Chaqa]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 2: If he flips town
If celaph flips town, ignore everything above.

Instead, we are presented with some different questions, less vote driven and more logic driven:

Point of Interest #1: Why was Maniac so sure celaph would be town? This to me could be potentially a scum pocketing a player who is widely scumread in order to gain credibility.

Point of Interest #2: TFB could have been the one being saved, not celaph. I wonder if the shift to Kak over celaph was not simply trying to divert as many votes off of TFB as possible. This again implicates Maniac and Bozo.

This one is a little less hard hitting, since it's a lot harder to see implications if celaph is town given it doesn't directly link him to other players, and more shifts potential links to TFB.

[Maniac]

<Snip>

On Maniac it was mostly to do with his determined protection of Celaph and his pledge to murder anyone who tried to flip Celaph - and his repeated scumread of Chaqa yet, when it came to the crunch, being totally unwilling to vote Chaqa. However, in recent pages, Maniac has addressed that and, moreover, I am now townreading Chaqa, so I am moving on from that position and Maniac is back to null for me, even though he appears to be voting me.
<snip>

When did I pledge to murder anyone who tried to flip Celaph?

More lies from Jamie (The person who policy daykilled my good buddy Flum for lying last game).

I'm now really eggstatic to be voting Jamie

Here:

I hereby pledge to daykill anyone who votes for Celaph. This applies for this game and the next one.

And here:

Can you expand on your Chaqa read?

Seriously if anyone so much as looks at Celaph, I will rip their head of and shut down the hole it leaves.

And pretty much implied here:

@everyone, I love Celaph. You want a piece of him you have to come through me.

Yeah, fair dues, but apart from those examples, when have I ever said I’d daykill anyone who voted for Celaph?

[TheFlyingBoat]

When did I pledge to murder anyone who tried to flip Celaph?

More lies from Jamie (The person who policy daykilled my good buddy Flum for lying last game).

I'm now really eggstatic to be voting Jamie

Here:

I hereby pledge to daykill anyone who votes for Celaph. This applies for this game and the next one.

And here:

Seriously if anyone so much as looks at Celaph, I will rip their head of and shut down the hole it leaves.

And pretty much implied here:

@everyone, I love Celaph. You want a piece of him you have to come through me.

Yeah, fair dues, but apart from those examples, when have I ever said I’d daykill anyone who voted for Celaph?

https://youtu.be/2ozEZxOsanY

[TheFlyingBoat]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 1: If he flips scum
Prelude: I'm not going to go through every post by post and break it down that way, more I want to point out several players and moments where I think something is pretty weird, and it all revolves around Celaph.

Celaph wasn't much of a wagon for most of Day 1, despite a lot of suspicion on him. Eventually, this formed into a small wagon with Bona and Eden, soon joined by brain. At this time, TFB and Kak were 4-4 with no clear leader presenting. Some vote moves by TFB, Maniac, and Sabi pushed things to:

TFB 5 - Celaph 4 - Chaqa 3 - Kak 2

As I moved off the TFB wagon, Demon and Kak moved onto celaph, bringing him to a 6-4 lead over TFB (with me at 3 and Kak at 2).

At this time, I made my vote for Kak, to see what would happen.

Point of Interest #1: Sabi switches from celaph, to Kak, by saying "I don't like this TFB wagon". Why make this move? TFB wasn't the leading wagon, momentum was against celaph, not TFB. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum.

TFB switches to Kak (he had not expressed much sus on celaph). Maniac also moves to Kak (as he had townread celaph) and celaph votes Kak (self preservation makes sense).

I switch back from Kak to celaph.

It is now tied 6-6. Typically, when presented with a tie, people will move to break the tie in whatever way momentum seems to shift.

Point of Interest #2: Bozo, who hadn't posted more than twice in the last 3 hours, comes in and votes for Kak. He had never once mentioned either Kak or celaph prior to this. Bozo - why did you cast this vote?

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":

i think im

chaqa>celaph>demon

at this point. debating first two

Then Jamie votes Kak. Now, Jamie had barely mentioned either celaph or Kak, and with two voters already making the Kak choice, I don't really find Jamie's vote here that suspicious.

But I really do share Snowy's concerns that there is some link between Celaph, Sabi, Bozo, and Blamp. Maybe not all four of them, but if celaph is scum, I am pretty certain at least two of them are his teammates.

Great points throughout, especially on blamp's vote vis a vis preferences. I think your read on Sabi if Celaph flips scum is a little strong given the various other factors that lead me to town read them, but you are right there may be something to consider there. I'd probably go Bozo>Blamp>Sabi among your persons of interest there. This and part 2 is exactly what I was hoping to see from you for the decision tree and it's implications.

[BesharamSabi]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 1: If he flips scum
Prelude: I'm not going to go through every post by post and break it down that way, more I want to point out several players and moments where I think something is pretty weird, and it all revolves around Celaph.

Celaph wasn't much of a wagon for most of Day 1, despite a lot of suspicion on him. Eventually, this formed into a small wagon with Bona and Eden, soon joined by brain. At this time, TFB and Kak were 4-4 with no clear leader presenting. Some vote moves by TFB, Maniac, and Sabi pushed things to:

TFB 5 - Celaph 4 - Chaqa 3 - Kak 2

As I moved off the TFB wagon, Demon and Kak moved onto celaph, bringing him to a 6-4 lead over TFB (with me at 3 and Kak at 2).

At this time, I made my vote for Kak, to see what would happen.

Point of Interest #1: Sabi switches from celaph, to Kak, by saying "I don't like this TFB wagon". Why make this move? TFB wasn't the leading wagon, momentum was against celaph, not TFB. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum.

TFB switches to Kak (he had not expressed much sus on celaph). Maniac also moves to Kak (as he had townread celaph) and celaph votes Kak (self preservation makes sense).

I switch back from Kak to celaph.

It is now tied 6-6. Typically, when presented with a tie, people will move to break the tie in whatever way momentum seems to shift.

Point of Interest #2: Bozo, who hadn't posted more than twice in the last 3 hours, comes in and votes for Kak. He had never once mentioned either Kak or celaph prior to this. Bozo - why did you cast this vote?

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":

i think im

chaqa>celaph>demon

at this point. debating first two

Then Jamie votes Kak. Now, Jamie had barely mentioned either celaph or Kak, and with two voters already making the Kak choice, I don't really find Jamie's vote here that suspicious.

But I really do share Snowy's concerns that there is some link between Celaph, Sabi, Bozo, and Blamp. Maybe not all four of them, but if celaph is scum, I am pretty certain at least two of them are his teammates.

. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum

Why would that make me be scum read. Explain like I'm five.

I was sussing kak for several hours before EOD.

This was not a spur of the moment thing. Your analysis misses that part.

[Chaqa]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 1: If he flips scum
Prelude: I'm not going to go through every post by post and break it down that way, more I want to point out several players and moments where I think something is pretty weird, and it all revolves around Celaph.

Celaph wasn't much of a wagon for most of Day 1, despite a lot of suspicion on him. Eventually, this formed into a small wagon with Bona and Eden, soon joined by brain. At this time, TFB and Kak were 4-4 with no clear leader presenting. Some vote moves by TFB, Maniac, and Sabi pushed things to:

TFB 5 - Celaph 4 - Chaqa 3 - Kak 2

As I moved off the TFB wagon, Demon and Kak moved onto celaph, bringing him to a 6-4 lead over TFB (with me at 3 and Kak at 2).

At this time, I made my vote for Kak, to see what would happen.

Point of Interest #1: Sabi switches from celaph, to Kak, by saying "I don't like this TFB wagon". Why make this move? TFB wasn't the leading wagon, momentum was against celaph, not TFB. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum.

TFB switches to Kak (he had not expressed much sus on celaph). Maniac also moves to Kak (as he had townread celaph) and celaph votes Kak (self preservation makes sense).

I switch back from Kak to celaph.

It is now tied 6-6. Typically, when presented with a tie, people will move to break the tie in whatever way momentum seems to shift.

Point of Interest #2: Bozo, who hadn't posted more than twice in the last 3 hours, comes in and votes for Kak. He had never once mentioned either Kak or celaph prior to this. Bozo - why did you cast this vote?

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":

i think im

chaqa>celaph>demon

at this point. debating first two

Then Jamie votes Kak. Now, Jamie had barely mentioned either celaph or Kak, and with two voters already making the Kak choice, I don't really find Jamie's vote here that suspicious.

But I really do share Snowy's concerns that there is some link between Celaph, Sabi, Bozo, and Blamp. Maybe not all four of them, but if celaph is scum, I am pretty certain at least two of them are his teammates.

. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum

Why would that make me be scum read. Explain like I'm five.

I was sussing kak for several hours before EOD.

This was not a spur of the moment thing. Your analysis misses that part.

It's not so much about where you moved, it's your reasoning.

Ah, I confused the reasons for your two votes. I thought the "I don't like the TFB wagon" post is where you voted for Kak, not where you voted for celaph.

This actually makes a lot more sense in that context, but still doesn't explain why you would put TFB closer to death by switching from celaph to Kak in the first place?

[Chaqa]

This actually means Sabi isn't linked too strongly to celaph, more so linked to TFB, which does reassure me a bit because I wasn't leaning too much toward Sabi being scum.

Seems like the link is celaph to Blamp and Bozo, which is EXACTLY what snowy was saying, and he got killed.

I think we got them gang.

[BesharamSabi]

The Case for Flipping Celaph Part 1: If he flips scum
Prelude: I'm not going to go through every post by post and break it down that way, more I want to point out several players and moments where I think something is pretty weird, and it all revolves around Celaph.

Celaph wasn't much of a wagon for most of Day 1, despite a lot of suspicion on him. Eventually, this formed into a small wagon with Bona and Eden, soon joined by brain. At this time, TFB and Kak were 4-4 with no clear leader presenting. Some vote moves by TFB, Maniac, and Sabi pushed things to:

TFB 5 - Celaph 4 - Chaqa 3 - Kak 2

As I moved off the TFB wagon, Demon and Kak moved onto celaph, bringing him to a 6-4 lead over TFB (with me at 3 and Kak at 2).

At this time, I made my vote for Kak, to see what would happen.

Point of Interest #1: Sabi switches from celaph, to Kak, by saying "I don't like this TFB wagon". Why make this move? TFB wasn't the leading wagon, momentum was against celaph, not TFB. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum.

TFB switches to Kak (he had not expressed much sus on celaph). Maniac also moves to Kak (as he had townread celaph) and celaph votes Kak (self preservation makes sense).

I switch back from Kak to celaph.

It is now tied 6-6. Typically, when presented with a tie, people will move to break the tie in whatever way momentum seems to shift.

Point of Interest #2: Bozo, who hadn't posted more than twice in the last 3 hours, comes in and votes for Kak. He had never once mentioned either Kak or celaph prior to this. Bozo - why did you cast this vote?

Point of Interest #3: Blamp votes for Kak. This is really interesting, given that just an hour and a half earlier, Blamp had given his vote preferences as "Chaqa > celaph > Demon":


Then Jamie votes Kak. Now, Jamie had barely mentioned either celaph or Kak, and with two voters already making the Kak choice, I don't really find Jamie's vote here that suspicious.

But I really do share Snowy's concerns that there is some link between Celaph, Sabi, Bozo, and Blamp. Maybe not all four of them, but if celaph is scum, I am pretty certain at least two of them are his teammates.

. I think that if celaph is scum, Sabi is astronomically more likely to be scum

Why would that make me be scum read. Explain like I'm five.

I was sussing kak for several hours before EOD.

This was not a spur of the moment thing. Your analysis misses that part.

It's not so much about where you moved, it's your reasoning.

Ah, I confused the reasons for your two votes. I thought the "I don't like the TFB wagon" post is where you voted for Kak, not where you voted for celaph.

This actually makes a lot more sense in that context, but still doesn't explain why you would put TFB closer to death by switching from celaph to Kak in the first place?

Idk why I put him closer to death tbh

[Jamiet99uk]

When did I pledge to murder anyone who tried to flip Celaph?

More lies from Jamie (The person who policy daykilled my good buddy Flum for lying last game).

I'm now really eggstatic to be voting Jamie

Here:

I hereby pledge to daykill anyone who votes for Celaph. This applies for this game and the next one.

And here:

Seriously if anyone so much as looks at Celaph, I will rip their head of and shut down the hole it leaves.

And pretty much implied here:

@everyone, I love Celaph. You want a piece of him you have to come through me.

Yeah, fair dues, but apart from those examples, when have I ever said I’d daykill anyone who voted for Celaph?

I've proved I wasn't lying, as you knew I would easily be able to do.

What was the point of accusing me of lying when you knew that accusation wouldn't stick?