M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

actually that’s kinda rude for the GMs

##VOTE TheFlyingBoat

[Jamiet99uk]

zzz boring ass day

##VOTE themrick

Betcha the Bot thinks this is a vote for TFB.

[rdrivera2005]

What has given you the idea that I am capable of saving town!celaph and I am shirking or half assing my town responsibility to follow through on it? I would have to convince at least 5 voters that my other scumreads are better than their own. I have produced a weak case on pyxxy which nobody really cared about, and beyond that I know snowy was after TFB alot and snowy died so TFB seems like a decent cw.

of my other scumreads everyone just keeps telling me no so ive just decided to focus on the ones that are possible that I feel strongly about.

Im not a convincing person and I never have been. people usually just think my ideas are wild theories with no validity and they prefer their own gut instincts and reasoning over mine

Why on earth would I kill Snowy if I were scum? If I were scum why would any mafia team let me kill Snowy there instead of a better target?

Like it doesn't make sense. Yes Snowy pressured me, but his attacks were weak and self defeating. If he were scum I would want him alive so he could keep making those self defeating attacks so that I could get free engagement points off of it and suck the air out of the room while not fearing being day killed given his best argument against me was that I kept running away from him and hiding when a cursory analysis showed that I had both talked to him and analyzed/talked about him a lot.

On the other hand killing him would lead to bad but easily eaten up arguments like this that are based on the logic that Snowy pressured me therefore I killed him to escape that pressure, which other voters are much more likely to believe than Snowy's presses, so it actually serves to drive up the heat on me which scum!me would want to avoid.

I don't like this line of thought. Killing a big vocal poster (Snowy) that scumread you hard and that will never be DKed isn't a bad move, specially this early and with an obvious D2 wagon (Celaph).

[Chaqa]

No. It's a terrible idea.

Agreed. Damo is coretown.

On what basis?

Explained already

[Jamiet99uk]

Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss potatoes.

Who did you steal this quote from?

I believe it is from Charles Stewart but it is often misattributed to Eleanor Roosevelt.

[worcej]

I think it's most likely that the JOAT didn't shoot at all, and scum shot Snowy.

Like 95%+ probability.

Look at Chaqa being all passive with his using 95%+ when he should've said 99.999999%+

Get'em Eden.

too many decimal places

scumclaim

How fucking dare you disrespect my use of significant digits.

[TheFlyingBoat]

actually that’s kinda rude for the GMs

##VOTE TheFlyingBoat

Why?

[Jamiet99uk]

<Snip>

On Maniac it was mostly to do with his determined protection of Celaph and his pledge to murder anyone who tried to flip Celaph - and his repeated scumread of Chaqa yet, when it came to the crunch, being totally unwilling to vote Chaqa. However, in recent pages, Maniac has addressed that and, moreover, I am now townreading Chaqa, so I am moving on from that position and Maniac is back to null for me, even though he appears to be voting me.
<snip>

When did I pledge to murder anyone who tried to flip Celaph?

More lies from Jamie (The person who policy daykilled my good buddy Flum for lying last game).

I'm now really eggstatic to be voting Jamie

Here:

Chaqa - would vote for Celaph which makes me want to kill him now. Would more than happily vote Chaqa today.

And here:

Can you expand on your Chaqa read?

Chaqa - would vote for Celaph which makes me want to kill him with a blunt screwdriver now. Would more than happily vote Chaqa and then do an Irish jig today.

And pretty much implied here:

@chaqa and Ghug. Oh come on! Iso Celaph. They advise us that chickens eat carrots, politely stands up for Autists without attacking people, sees the best in Jamie and expresses concern for Macca’s situation. Sure they haven’t done anything to help town win the game, but we just can’t daykill them today and anyone trying to (looking at you Chaqa) is a monster.

[ghug]

zzz boring ass day

##VOTE themrick

Based

[TheFlyingBoat]

What has given you the idea that I am capable of saving town!celaph and I am shirking or half assing my town responsibility to follow through on it? I would have to convince at least 5 voters that my other scumreads are better than their own. I have produced a weak case on pyxxy which nobody really cared about, and beyond that I know snowy was after TFB alot and snowy died so TFB seems like a decent cw.

of my other scumreads everyone just keeps telling me no so ive just decided to focus on the ones that are possible that I feel strongly about.

Im not a convincing person and I never have been. people usually just think my ideas are wild theories with no validity and they prefer their own gut instincts and reasoning over mine

Why on earth would I kill Snowy if I were scum? If I were scum why would any mafia team let me kill Snowy there instead of a better target?

Like it doesn't make sense. Yes Snowy pressured me, but his attacks were weak and self defeating. If he were scum I would want him alive so he could keep making those self defeating attacks so that I could get free engagement points off of it and suck the air out of the room while not fearing being day killed given his best argument against me was that I kept running away from him and hiding when a cursory analysis showed that I had both talked to him and analyzed/talked about him a lot.

On the other hand killing him would lead to bad but easily eaten up arguments like this that are based on the logic that Snowy pressured me therefore I killed him to escape that pressure, which other voters are much more likely to believe than Snowy's presses, so it actually serves to drive up the heat on me which scum!me would want to avoid.

I don't like this line of thought. Killing a big vocal poster (Snowy) that scumread you hard and that will never be DKed isn't a bad move, specially this early and with an obvious D2 wagon (Celaph).

Why would snowy be impossible to DK given he was literally DKed D2 in m1020?

[brainbomb]

That was... surprisingly less content for such a massive vote swing. Strange, and worth pondering

I will concede that wagonomics do not favor celaph based upon read, but neither does that mean TFB is not scum

In fact pretty sure TFB went out of his way to save celaph and never voted him despite being a viable counterwagon, if that sways any of ye "celaph is scum" bandwagoners

[brainbomb]

I disagree. I think it could be worth it. There won't be any magic numbers that guarantee someone is scum or town and trying to do that with spreadsheet wizardry is a fool's errand, but that doesn't mean that spreadsheets can't be valuable. After seeing the results you generate, if we see outliers of interaction beyond what's expected based on activity, a qualititative analysis of the actual posts themselves could likely yield positive results.

tl;dr worth doing because it could act as a very nice pointer that could catch things the human eye might miss, but isn't an all-in-one solution itself.

The only thing it helps me figure out is who is talking about who (and avoiding talking about who).

A good reference guide to compare to when people do reads and vca I guess.

run some numbers on how hard tfb is avoiding talking about me

[rdrivera2005]

what was that game where damo and rdrivera both claimed a janitored pr and scum ended up winning because of it

I don't remember the Janitor thing. There was a game I was scum with Ezio and when town decided to massclaim I claimed a possible role and Ezio just cc me out of the blue. I was really surprised and so angry with him that I got him killed and won in lylo. Probably one of the best scum plays I saw (by Ezio, he said he knew I will be triggered and it worked).

[brainbomb]

snowy was mostly sus of celaph-chaqa-tfb

[President Eden]

actually that’s kinda rude for the GMs

##VOTE TheFlyingBoat

Why?

if you flip I can check someone else

[brainbomb]

what was that game where damo and rdrivera both claimed a janitored pr and scum ended up winning because of it

I don't remember the Janitor thing. There was a game I was scum with Ezio and when town decided to massclaim I claimed a possible role and Ezio just cc me out of the blue. I was really surprised and so angry with him that I got him killed and won in lylo. Probably one of the best scum plays I saw (by Ezio, he said he knew I will be triggered and it worked).

ya I was scum with you guys and was baffled at seeing that play out from dead chat

[TheFlyingBoat]

That was... surprisingly less content for such a massive vote swing. Strange, and worth pondering

I will concede that wagonomics do not favor celaph based upon read, but neither does that mean TFB is not scum

In fact pretty sure TFB went out of his way to save celaph and never voted him despite being a viable counterwagon, if that sways any of ye "celaph is scum" bandwagoners

It was a dumb post then just like his follow up post where he claims I had ignored him despite at the time mentioning his name 29 (!!!) times and featuring prominently wrt him in Sabi's spreadsheet and as Eden noted in his own separate analysis the engagement was serious and thoughtful. I had clearly listed Celaph as a scum read. I just had multiple targets over him who I voted instead. I pressured Celaph at night and then pressured him today as well. This is just lunacy.

[TheFlyingBoat]

snowy was mostly sus of celaph-chaqa-tfb

And bozo and blamp

[TheFlyingBoat]

actually that’s kinda rude for the GMs

##VOTE TheFlyingBoat

Why?

if you flip I can check someone else

I mean that's true for literally any flip lmao

[Jamiet99uk]

A celaph info flip grows in merit. If celaph is in fact scum, there is a small group of people who would fit the 'saving my teammate'. If celaph is town, then at least we know we're all a bunch of idiots.

Is it worth killing another Town to find out that we are all idiots?