M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[brainbomb]

so id vote ghug or pyxxy here instead of celaph.

[BusinessLamp]

Well that’s disappointing. Just re-read chaqa looking for a reason to vote for him and couldn’t find one. Too tired to iso anyone else.

@Bona - thanks for explanation, but why wasn’t snowy on your list?

Did you find anything that pointed you in the opposite direction?

[brainbomb]

##vote ghug

[celaph]

Starting catchup now.

I just reread EOD, and I feel like Chaqa's flip on me is opportunistic. He framed it as if he had always scum read me and was just waiting to catch someone trying to save me. Yet the only person who had voted for not me in recent times was Maniac. And if was really concerned with connecting Maniac to me, that work has already been done for him, by Maniac, who has consistently expressed a townread of me. Chaqa even asked him about it earlier so he should be aware of it.

If town Chaqa was genuinely trying to catch people connected to me, I think he would be well aware of the fact that he failed. Rather, I think the more likely explanation is that scum Chaqa would prefer me to die and wanted to cover his motive.

I would absolutely call it opportunistic, because I was taking advantage of the opportunity to bait out who your potential teammates are. I've had a solid scumread on you all game, so you trying to shade me about it is pretty weak. I wasn't really worried about Maniac specifically - he's a potential teammate, but I don't see him doing that blatant linking tbh.

I don't think I failed. Time will tell.

You seem to be trying to portray my scumread of you as though I'm only doing it to shade you because of your scumread of me. I'm not trying to shade you for your scumread, I just think you're scum.

I'm glad to see we are in agreement about Maniac, so who do you think bit your bait?

tl;dr: Chaqa isn't acting like he thinks anyone bit his bait. He has made no attempt to push nor sus any of the people that can be reasonably construed as being caught. He is either lying about having caught someone or just wants to wait until after I flip so he can pick a read that fits his purpose then.

Sabi: In his push back against Sabi's N1 comments about his tendencies of sharing his absences, he made no comments pressuring dem. He also didn't have any comments about Sabi's presence high on PE's list.

TFB: The closest he comes on TFB is saying that he could see TFB as scum when BB suggests it. But he again has no objection to the inclusion on TFB on Eden's list. Chaqa's read N1-Now on TFB isn't clear, but he scumread him near EOD1. That said, if he scumread TFB beforehand, then his gimmick didn't catch TFB and there is no evidence to suggest that his scumread has grown.

Bozo: While he said that he could see TFB as scum, he said IDK about Bozo. I would struggle to justify Chaqa having anything but a null on Bozo. He certainly wasn't caught.

Blamp: Chaqa gave blamp town points N1 and while that technically doesn't preclude him having previously given blamp scum points, there is no evidence to suggest that he did.

Jamie: Chaqa has very minimal interactions with Jamie and certainly no sign of a scumread.

[celaph]

That is interesting. Maniac trying to buddy/pocket Celaph or Maniac-Celaph scum team? Part of me leans the latter given I think I have Celaph as a scum lean, but that's so blatant from Maniac that part of me wonders if it is the former. I lean the latter personally as I think Maniac hopes we'll write it off as Maniac being Maniac, but I am curious as to your conclusion.

As for him never mentioning me at all before lumping me in with snowy and ghug without explanation and then voting for me after saying he doesn't like any of the major wagons? Mildly odd. One thing to note is that during this time, Chaqa is the third major wagon, tied with celaph. If he voted for Chaqa, as Sabi, Jamie, and I lobbied him to do Chaqa could have been tied for the lead. Maniac's strongest target was Chaqa. He had the shot and gave no indication his read on Chaqa changed and emphasized his read on Celaph was the same, but yet he didn't take the shot. Why?

For reference:







Either Maniac is insane or at a minimum 2 of the 3 of Chaqa, Maniac, and Celaph are scum imo.

Why don't you consider town Maniac in your early paragraphs? In my mind, the most suspicious part of Maniac's actions are that his explanation of his read of me doesn't read like a townread, but rather a protect read. He straight up says "Sure they haven’t done anything to help town win the game, but we just can’t daykill them today". That isn't a thing you say when you actually townread someone, but something you say when you want to keep me alive for other reasons. This doesn't match his EOD vote where he says that he actually townreads me.

That said, you're portraying him as someone who is obsessively talking only about me when he isn't. I think it's rather natural that he's spoken multiple times about someone he both townreads and was the main cw at EOD. And, more importantly to why I don't think he's trying to pocket me, is that I've been satisfied with his posts outside of the focus on me. I think his reads list lays out his standing rather clearly and I liked his take on Macca subbing out.

I dislike this feeling that TFB's post comes in with an agenda.

1) you are correct his reads of you were weird but I was willing to chalk that up to maniac being weird at the time, perhaps I shouldn't

2) I didn't consider him town for much of that post despite supporting him earlier because his vote was so scummy and his explanations for it are wholly unsatisfying. He was protecting someone and it was either you or Chaqa or both.

3) you're deliberately misreading my point. The issue isn't he mentioned Chaqa a lot. The issue is for all of the day he said Chaqa was his number one kill priority. Not just a minor scum read, but his primary target. If you look at the full posts I link to in that post you'll see that Chaqa was always his primary target. Yet when given the chance to make Chaqa the lead wagon he passed to vote for someone he'd only vote for if he had to. Nothing he has said so far has ever given us a satisfactory explanation for it.

Re 2: I think his actions can be explained from a town Maniac point of view. I don't want to act like I speak for him, but I gave one such viewpoint to Blamp earlier.

Re 3: I had contextualized his comments about Chaqa in context of disagreeing with Chaqa's scumread of me and my scumread of you. My gut still feels town, but I concede that outside of that context his switch from Chaqa to you is poorly explained.

[celaph]

Off to eat dinner and bake a tart for my PI. Be back to finish catching up later tonight.

Private investigator?

Principal investigator. Just think professor.

[celaph]

I present to you the most powerful tool in the game

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/stats?g=73&phase=global

Now let's play the game "who went zzz immediately at EoD"

Code: Select all

Player	Last (Now)
BesharamSabi	00:17
President Eden	00:04
Jamiet99uk	00:46
Bonatogether	00:43
snowy801        00:23
brainbomb	01:47
TheFlyingBoat	00:14
Chaqa	        00:22
ghug	        06:45
BusinessLamp	01:16
DemonRHK	00:58
celaph	        01:16
bozotheclown	01:16
damo666	        03:34
Maniac	        00:59
pyxxy	        03:31
rdrivera2005	03:14

Blamp, Celaph, bozo eh

Hmm I do find this interesting because blamp was online in bottom bar for a good part of the real time night part of night one.

Interesting.

Could point to a fear kill?

I skimmed Blamp's +1s and saw no evidence that he was in the thread reading at that time. Now, he certainly could have been aware that people might monitor that and consciously didn't +1, but at that point why is he not just hiding himself or reading straight from the bot? I find it far more likely that he just had the tab open in the background while going about his day.

[damo666]

## vote celaph

[BusinessLamp]

## vote celaph

this is so bad.
what purpose does it serve
how is it pro-town at all

[BusinessLamp]

like even if you think celaph is definitely scum what good does adding a vote to a runaway wagon with no additional commentary do

[BusinessLamp]

Okay so damo is the first vote on Kak, a random vote. Seven hours before end of day damo names kak/snowy/demon/bozo as his scum team guess, not elaborating beyond "they're scummiest."

Two hours before end of day:

Glad to see the Sabi wgon dissipate.

Disappointed to see the Eden wagon emerge. I doubt all 4 people on that wagon are town.

The people who swung on Eden were Demon/Bona/Snowy/Chaqa. Damo then makes this post, where he names the same four suspects as prior:

Willing to vote any of Kak/Demon/Snowy or at a push Bozo.

I will not be available for the last hour of the D.

So my question I guess is, if you already suspected those four, and Demon and Snowy both just did something additionally worrisome, what makes you keep your vote on Kak there? Why did you think Kak was scummy throughout the day?

Seems like it could just be consistency for sake of keeping story straight

damo plz respond if you havent. (idk that I’ve read all of today yet)

[celaph]

So everyone gets to see how your mind has changed, which tbh is one of the hardest things to track (before the invention of spreadsheets, apparently).

We can just put the N1 post numbers right next to your list too, for emphasis.

- celaph, zero posts
- worcej, 2 posts which somewhat explain his absence
- rivera, the carnival interlude
- Maniac, 3 posts: "Rip Kak", "why I flipped off my own TFB wagon", and "if I die, bury me deep" [ed note: ?????? on the last one]
- damo, 2 posts
- bozo, 3 posts

I hate to be a newbie that just defaults to "kill the low poster" every daytime, especially while I'm still wearing my posting floaties and floundering around in the kiddie pool. But. Zero posts?

From someone that posted at D1 EOD-13, -12, -10, -04, -03, and -01. Yet can't spare a single night post.

And while reviewing all these posts for those timestamps (this is exhausting idk how y'all do this every time you say "oh I should go ISO someone" like holy fuck I've been drafting this post for like 20 minutes), I ran back into celaph's D2 opener:

Starting catchup now.

I just reread EOD, and I feel like Chaqa's flip on me is opportunistic. He framed it as if he had always scum read me and was just waiting to catch someone trying to save me. Yet the only person who had voted for not me in recent times was Maniac. And if was really concerned with connecting Maniac to me, that work has already been done for him, by Maniac, who has consistently expressed a townread of me. Chaqa even asked him about it earlier so he should be aware of it.

If town Chaqa was genuinely trying to catch people connected to me, I think he would be well aware of the fact that he failed. Rather, I think the more likely explanation is that scum Chaqa would prefer me to die and wanted to cover his motive.

I thought this reasoning made sense at the time. It still does to an extent. But then I watched Chaqa try....whatever that was with the roleblocking thing .

Chaqa's D1 EOD "haha i tricked you celaph" feels like pretty similar behavior to Chaqa's "haha i was just trying to trick mafia into fake claims". And since you (Eden) + some others seem to think this was just Chaqa being Chaqa, then it makes celaph's immediate D2 post much weirder.

Finally, if I was town as celaph here, there is one more thing that I would have added to this D2 post. I would have said something like "I was laying low and not posting intentionally during the night in order to avoid mafia attention / look like a low poster aka mafia, because I had a scum read on Chaqa and wanted to try bait him into killing me".

Or something like this. Put another way. If I was absent all night, I would mention why, or I would have given people a heads up. Even just one joke night post like "if I die kill chaqa" removes a lot of suspicion. There were a bunch of these kinds of posts, and maybe it's enough to goad Chaqa into actually doing it.

All these things leave me coming to my first official scum read.

Celaph, I find thee sus.

##VOTE Celaph

Your sus on me for not night posting is understandable. That said, historically I have always been a low poster at night. I focus elsewhere so I can spend more time during the days playing. That's also why I didn't make a post commenting on my lack of night posts, it's not particularly eventful for me.

I view Chaqa's roleblock thing at the start of today to be a gimmick regardless of his alignment. It's a little trick designed to make people stumble. I view his flip on me a lot more cynically. It's one thing to try a gimmick and see if you can bait people, but he kept it up and is claiming to have been successful. Despite his claims, he has shown no increase in scumread to any of the people he could reasonably consider to have been trapped. If it was just a gimmick, he could have dropped it and moved on, but he didn't.

In other news, Pyxxy is town core. Having been the main cw yesterday and given the talk surrounding me, there is no reason to ever assume that mafia would kill me there. They'd be fools for doing so. The fact that this was not immediately and intuitively obvious shows a complete lack of scum thought on his front. This also matches well with his earlier comments trying to figure things out and his evident lack of experience.

[BusinessLamp]

@chaqa, @eden, @brain, @bozo: I think you all noted my difference in behavior, what do you make of celaph’s

[BusinessLamp]

So everyone gets to see how your mind has changed, which tbh is one of the hardest things to track (before the invention of spreadsheets, apparently).

We can just put the N1 post numbers right next to your list too, for emphasis.

- celaph, zero posts
- worcej, 2 posts which somewhat explain his absence
- rivera, the carnival interlude
- Maniac, 3 posts: "Rip Kak", "why I flipped off my own TFB wagon", and "if I die, bury me deep" [ed note: ?????? on the last one]
- damo, 2 posts
- bozo, 3 posts

I hate to be a newbie that just defaults to "kill the low poster" every daytime, especially while I'm still wearing my posting floaties and floundering around in the kiddie pool. But. Zero posts?

From someone that posted at D1 EOD-13, -12, -10, -04, -03, and -01. Yet can't spare a single night post.

And while reviewing all these posts for those timestamps (this is exhausting idk how y'all do this every time you say "oh I should go ISO someone" like holy fuck I've been drafting this post for like 20 minutes), I ran back into celaph's D2 opener:

Starting catchup now.

I just reread EOD, and I feel like Chaqa's flip on me is opportunistic. He framed it as if he had always scum read me and was just waiting to catch someone trying to save me. Yet the only person who had voted for not me in recent times was Maniac. And if was really concerned with connecting Maniac to me, that work has already been done for him, by Maniac, who has consistently expressed a townread of me. Chaqa even asked him about it earlier so he should be aware of it.

If town Chaqa was genuinely trying to catch people connected to me, I think he would be well aware of the fact that he failed. Rather, I think the more likely explanation is that scum Chaqa would prefer me to die and wanted to cover his motive.

I thought this reasoning made sense at the time. It still does to an extent. But then I watched Chaqa try....whatever that was with the roleblocking thing .

Chaqa's D1 EOD "haha i tricked you celaph" feels like pretty similar behavior to Chaqa's "haha i was just trying to trick mafia into fake claims". And since you (Eden) + some others seem to think this was just Chaqa being Chaqa, then it makes celaph's immediate D2 post much weirder.

Finally, if I was town as celaph here, there is one more thing that I would have added to this D2 post. I would have said something like "I was laying low and not posting intentionally during the night in order to avoid mafia attention / look like a low poster aka mafia, because I had a scum read on Chaqa and wanted to try bait him into killing me".

Or something like this. Put another way. If I was absent all night, I would mention why, or I would have given people a heads up. Even just one joke night post like "if I die kill chaqa" removes a lot of suspicion. There were a bunch of these kinds of posts, and maybe it's enough to goad Chaqa into actually doing it.

All these things leave me coming to my first official scum read.

Celaph, I find thee sus.

##VOTE Celaph

In other news, Pyxxy is town core. Having been the main cw yesterday and given the talk surrounding me, there is no reason to ever assume that mafia would kill me there. They'd be fools for doing so. The fact that this was not immediately and intuitively obvious shows a complete lack of scum thought on his front. This also matches well with his earlier comments trying to figure things out and his evident lack of experience.

this is really good friendsssss why are you all killing this man

[BusinessLamp]

continues throwing a tantrum until there’s a wagon on manic or damo

[Bonatogether]

Well that’s disappointing. Just re-read chaqa looking for a reason to vote for him and couldn’t find one. Too tired to iso anyone else.

@Bona - thanks for explanation, but why wasn’t snowy on your list?

which list?

[Maniac]

Well that’s disappointing. Just re-read chaqa looking for a reason to vote for him and couldn’t find one. Too tired to iso anyone else.

@Bona - thanks for explanation, but why wasn’t snowy on your list?

Really? What do you think of my reasons?

I don’t really understand what Chaqa’s being accused off regards the RB thing.

Chaqa’s EOD explanation seems plausible I suppose if he’s town.

[Jamiet99uk]

also why does jamie keep misgendering sabi as a joke?
hes referred to sabi as a he twice now.

I'm aware of Sabi's pronouns and if I've made a mistake, I apologise.

Uh just don't do it again?

I apologise.

I've looked back through the entire thread and I can only find one instance where I made this mistake, but I apologise for that.

[Bonatogether]

Celaph has many SIMPs. This is indicative of the fact that he does not respond to questions. Indeed, he has the lowest total SIMP factor of any active player (and lower than several inactive players). His only SIMP factor greater than 1 is with Kak. He only interacts with 2 players above 10 times (Sabi and Eden - the two highest posters) Why he refuses to talk about or with people is very strange given his previous play. I believe this is strongly scum indicative.

There is a big difference between talking about someone and talking to someone and Sabi's list doesn't make a distinction between those two. The reality is that people talked about me a lot more than they talked to me. I suspect that is true for most people.

You claim that the fact I'm heavily simped implies that I am not responding to questions, but that is not true. Go back and look at the posts and find ones where people are talking directly to me, not just about me. I respond to those posts. I'm heavily simped through a combination of my low post count and the amount of conversation around me, not because I'm ignoring people asking me questions.

Also, you note that I have only interacted with 2 players above 10 times. I made 30 posts at the time of your analysis for a total of 60 mentions. It's not surprising that I don't mention many people a lot when I'm not a high poster.

You're not responding to interactions about you or engaging people who are thinking about you - that's what the score means. I haven't been seeing the engagement

no, you have a differential of over 10 with 3 players - Sabi, Chaqa, Eden. Given that these people are high posters, it's not hugely surprising that it's with them but the important thing is that you are not engaging with people on the same level that they are thinking about you for d1.

[rdrivera2005]

## vote celaph

this is so bad.
what purpose does it serve
how is it pro-town at all

Totally agree.