MAFIA 71: "PAPERS PLEASE" - GAME THREAD [Hidden]

[damo666]

flyingboat if you are PR the game is down to like 4 people who could be the last two scum

and same is true for you damo

and Macca and Sabi and Bozo

[TheFlyingBoat]

So we have two clears and would go to three if the other person claims? That leaves us with a PoE of 5 people? If we guess wrong and they kill two from the PoE that takes us down to 4 people in the PoE and 1 clear on 5 left. On that day if it is 3-1-1 then would the correct play be no kill, and then depending on whether one of the mafia shoots the other, no kill again if it is 1-1-1 or go into KILO if it is 2-1?

I don't know how much faith we want to put into cop investigations with the forger still alive.

[damo666]

the only ppl left who can be kalech are sabi, damo tfb or macca

Why not Bozo?

[damo666]

Why are you giving such a free pass to Macca and TFB?

Specially Macca. They were scum before and played really well being under the radar until the end.

Durga voted Macca makes them unlikely K.

Ghug put captmeme and Macca on team with durga, is he gonna put both his scummates together like that? Nope.

TFB next post.

Well this leaves me with

E brain or Sabi
K bozo or Sabi

##vote Sabi

but I will revisit Macca and TFB

I have revisited Macca and TFB and have difficulty placing them in either team so I am still left with

E brain or Sabi
K bozo or Sabi

I previously voted Sabi due to them be the only person who could be on either team. However I still have difficulty reconciling Sabi's day 1 performance with being scum. Conlusion:

Last E is brain - I can see brain and ghug cooking up the plan to hold RB to allow brain to claim especially as both ghug and meme seemed destined not to survive.

Last K is Bozo - His recent posts fit those of a relatively powerless last remaining Kolechian.

##vote Bozo

[bozotheclown]

Although I have been pointing out potential bold scum plays, the fact is more often than not the simplest explanation is correct. So, the following is probably true:

1. BesharamSabi's town slip was real
2. brainbomb was roleblocked
3. PE was not on ghug's team

I think the amount of bussing that occurred is being underestimated, so we should look at the timing of potential busses. For instance, ghug placing a fifth vote on captainmeme when he was the lead wagon makes sense, as ghug would have an incentive to end on captainmeme if he was going to be the DK. However, ghug voting for TFB to make him the lead wagon when there were 4 wagons tied at 3 is not likely to have been a bus. Also, it is not likely ghug would try to make Macca his counter wagon D2 if they were teammates. I also think Durga's votes for damo and Macca D1 are not likely to be busses, and I doubt TFB was bussing Fluminator D1.

I think all of this make rdrivera and damo the best candidates for the remaining ghug teammate and Squigs and rdrivera the best candidates for the remaining Durga teammate. I can see why I would be a good candidate for Durga's team also, but I am town.

Here are the assumptions I was making for my POE:

1. BesharamSabi's town slip was real
2. brainbomb was roleblocked
3. PE was not on ghug's team
4. ghug was not bussing TFB
5. ghug was not bussing Macca
6. Durga was not bussing damo
7. Durga was not bussing Macca
8. TFB was not bussing Fluminator

Number 3 has been proven true, but at least one of the other assumptions must be false.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Going back to the question of mass claiming. Let's say we have the 3 PRs claim, let's assume Sabi isn't a PR and is a VT/Miller given D1. Let's also assume BB is legit and his RB claim wasn't fabricated by agreement. In that case we'd have 5 known clears and three people in the PoE (Macca, bozo, and damo). Worst case of we're wrong the first time, we hit 5 (3-1-1) with exactly 2 in the POE who are both scum. We kill one in the day which takes us down to 2-1 the following day after the remaining mafia takes their shot. The last person in the PoE and town wins?

Can someone look over my math and see if given my assumptions I am correct in my conclusion on the worst case?

[bozotheclown]

Going back to the question of mass claiming. Let's say we have the 3 PRs claim, let's assume Sabi isn't a PR and is a VT/Miller given D1. Let's also assume BB is legit and his RB claim wasn't fabricated by agreement. In that case we'd have 5 known clears and three people in the PoE (Macca, bozo, and damo). Worst case of we're wrong the first time, we hit 5 (3-1-1) with exactly 2 in the POE who are both scum. We kill one in the day which takes us down to 2-1 the following day after the remaining mafia takes their shot. The last person in the PoE and town wins?

Can someone look over my math and see if given my assumptions I am correct in my conclusion on the worst case?

I have not looked at it that closely, but there is only 1 PR left to claim, so ultimately it is up to the Investigator if they think claiming is a good idea.

[damo666]

Going back to the question of mass claiming. Let's say we have the 3 PRs claim, let's assume Sabi isn't a PR and is a VT/Miller given D1. Let's also assume BB is legit and his RB claim wasn't fabricated by agreement. In that case we'd have 5 known clears and three people in the PoE (Macca, bozo, and damo). Worst case of we're wrong the first time, we hit 5 (3-1-1) with exactly 2 in the POE who are both scum. We kill one in the day which takes us down to 2-1 the following day after the remaining mafia takes their shot. The last person in the PoE and town wins?

Can someone look over my math and see if given my assumptions I am correct in my conclusion on the worst case?

I have not looked at it that closely, but there is only 1 PR left to claim, so ultimately it is up to the Investigator if they think claiming is a good idea.

I think TFB is implicitly claiming Investigator. Why are Bozo, Macca and I specified. Why can't one of those 3 be the Investigator?

[TheMadMonarch]

Twist ending with those Night Kills...

Something's amiss...

[brainbomb]

Twist ending with those Night Kills...

Something's amiss...

indeed
unexpected flips. hard to tell if the rdrivera shot was a shot at doc or a shot at opposing maf.

[bozotheclown]

Going back to the question of mass claiming. Let's say we have the 3 PRs claim, let's assume Sabi isn't a PR and is a VT/Miller given D1. Let's also assume BB is legit and his RB claim wasn't fabricated by agreement. In that case we'd have 5 known clears and three people in the PoE (Macca, bozo, and damo). Worst case of we're wrong the first time, we hit 5 (3-1-1) with exactly 2 in the POE who are both scum. We kill one in the day which takes us down to 2-1 the following day after the remaining mafia takes their shot. The last person in the PoE and town wins?

Can someone look over my math and see if given my assumptions I am correct in my conclusion on the worst case?

I have not looked at it that closely, but there is only 1 PR left to claim, so ultimately it is up to the Investigator if they think claiming is a good idea.

I think TFB is implicitly claiming Investigator. Why are Bozo, Macca and I specified. Why can't one of those 3 be the Investigator?

That is what it sounds like, but I was going to wait to see if he was going to explicitly claim it.

[bozotheclown]

I am not going to be around much until after the pause.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Oh it seems when I was fixing a sentence in my previous post that I deleted some of the couchy language that would have made the claim far less implied, but yes I am the vanilla cop, but I don't think my scans are particularly helpful nor will they ever be. I think the best I can do is act as a conf clear. My scans were N1 on Flum, because I felt I needed some sort of sign after his attempt to psych me out with his references to M70 to make me second guess myself. N2 was bozo, where he turned up vanilla (unfortunately this doesn't eliminate the possibility he if a Goon even if it was not messed with). N3 was rdr because he was the deepest threat. He was not vanilla, but that does very little to help given he died.

[brainbomb]

Oh it seems when I was fixing a sentence in my previous post that I deleted some of the couchy language that would have made the claim far less implied, but yes I am the vanilla cop, but I don't think my scans are particularly helpful nor will they ever be. I think the best I can do is act as a conf clear. My scans were N1 on Flum, because I felt I needed some sort of sign after his attempt to psych me out with his references to M70 to make me second guess myself. N2 was bozo, where he turned up vanilla (unfortunately this doesn't eliminate the possibility he if a Goon even if it was not messed with). N3 was rdr because he was the deepest threat. He was not vanilla, but that does very little to help given he died.

this eliminates bozo as being the forger on ezic
so that is helpful

[bozotheclown]

Oh it seems when I was fixing a sentence in my previous post that I deleted some of the couchy language that would have made the claim far less implied, but yes I am the vanilla cop, but I don't think my scans are particularly helpful nor will they ever be. I think the best I can do is act as a conf clear. My scans were N1 on Flum, because I felt I needed some sort of sign after his attempt to psych me out with his references to M70 to make me second guess myself. N2 was bozo, where he turned up vanilla (unfortunately this doesn't eliminate the possibility he if a Goon even if it was not messed with). N3 was rdr because he was the deepest threat. He was not vanilla, but that does very little to help given he died.

Yes, unfortunately we have a goon and a GF left.

[bozotheclown]

Oh it seems when I was fixing a sentence in my previous post that I deleted some of the couchy language that would have made the claim far less implied, but yes I am the vanilla cop, but I don't think my scans are particularly helpful nor will they ever be. I think the best I can do is act as a conf clear. My scans were N1 on Flum, because I felt I needed some sort of sign after his attempt to psych me out with his references to M70 to make me second guess myself. N2 was bozo, where he turned up vanilla (unfortunately this doesn't eliminate the possibility he if a Goon even if it was not messed with). N3 was rdr because he was the deepest threat. He was not vanilla, but that does very little to help given he died.

this eliminates bozo as being the forger on ezic
so that is helpful

Not really, the forger could have protected themselves N2.

[brainbomb]

Cannot be ezic
bozo

Cannot be kalech
brainbomb


Is confirmed town
lfischl
fox
flyingboat


POE for ezic
macca
sabi
damo
brain

POE for kalech
macca
sabi
damo
bozo

[bozotheclown]

I am down to 5 assumptions where at least one must be false:

1. BesharamSabi's town slip was real
2. brainbomb was roleblocked
3. ghug was not bussing Macca
4. Durga was not bussing damo
5. Durga was not bussing Macca

[brainbomb]

EZIC FORGER
You are a loyal member of the Order of the Ezic Star with special experience in creating forged documents and convincing-looking official paperwork. Each day you must vote for a suspect. Each night you may VISIT a target and change their paperwork. If that player is investigated the same night by the Cop or Vanilla Cop, the opposite result to the truth will be obtained. You are part of EZIC and you win when the Town and the Kolechian Terrorsts are eliminated, or nothing can stop this from happening. At night you may converse with your partners in a special chatroom which will be provided separately.


doesnt say anything about self forging but im sure it is potentially the case that self forgin is allowed. Regardless the odds are much higher a forger continued to forge ghug since we know they did n1

[brainbomb]

if you wanna fight the notion you are exempt from being ezic because you forged yourself I guess cool bro. you do you