M1020 — Speed Run Mafia GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[celaph]

Snowy's long post doesn't convince me 1 iota.

Glad to see Bozo posting more. I'm not convinced though that ghug and Squigs having similar reads is AI.

Where is celaph.

I have had an idea regarding EOD1. Have to work on it though. More later.

Didn't work out. Shame.

Can you share what your idea was and why it didn't work out?

[celaph]

Snowy's long post doesn't convince me 1 iota.

Glad to see Bozo posting more. I'm not convinced though that ghug and Squigs having similar reads is AI.

Where is celaph.

I have had an idea regarding EOD1. Have to work on it though. More later.

Yeah Bozo's participation has increased, but the quality of his output has not.
I'm not buying the "Ghug posted a similar reads list to Squigs, so that means Squigs must be scum" argument at all.

I agree but I think this could easily be townBozo. Defintely not AI.

Can you speak more to what about Bozo's play strikes you as town bozo?

[snowy801]

Maybe I just have blindfolds on for bozo but his ISO reads fine

The only arguably sus part is from 5 hours out to EoD1 past both phase changes where it's consecutive excuses for extended absences which feels kinda weird, but M70 he was scum with me and also asked for excusing as he is simply too busy and I don't imagine why he'd like to me in mafqt so I figure it's plausible

It's not like you guys particularly town read town!bozo either. I recall it was an epic struggle to get you people off him in M69, y'all do him dirty sometimes

I don't think his arguments are weak at all, it just comes from a different mindset than what some of you use. Do you think scum!bozo manufactured a read where he simulates the possibility of two people having a mafqt discussion, then inadvertently using the ideas inside and independently converging on reads as a sign that the share a private room? I think it shows creativity and active thinking, for all that the end result appears fairly simple.

[DeathLlama8]

bozos read on damo evaporating for no reason should be noted if damo flips scum

It was not without reason, the reason was ghug and Squigs had him in their scum pool, so if my theory about ghug and Squigs is correct, I think that makes damo less likely scum. I still think damo is a reasonable scum possibility, and it is not impossible he is scum with ghug and/or Squigs.

- The ghug/squigs push feels really forced in general (I genuinely can't see the connection to them being scum who have decided to publicly state identical DK targets), but I especially don't like this part of it - it feels like an excuse to not vote for damo later, especially given the original quote. The analysis of squigs' past scum games also feels besides the point and tangential to an actual push.

(Also, it's weird that people are saying that bozo's meta is to tunnel and that he's trying to move away from that as mafia. the ghug/squigs thing feels very tunnelly to me)

- Jamiet's reaction to Snowy is town-indicative IMO

Is the point "Town Ghug often doesn't explain his votes very well"?

I had a suspicion that scum ghug doesn't scumread the people he votes for. Turns out town ghug also doesn't consistently scumread the people he votes for. So it's more NAI than I thought.

This push in general, as well as this retraction after investigating into it, also feels good to me

Well for *hand waives* I had DL marked as potential scum early on and noted as much around the halfway mark but over time that sort of faded away for *nebulous reasons* and I kind of put it away until the way EoD1 unfolded where I was trying to get a you(ghug)/bona wagon going and he neatly sidestepped that by saying "well you also scum read bo_sox, here's a vote to get you to move your own" [side note Jamiet clearly other people could tell that I scum read bo, this really is a you problem, as are all things related to you]

And then he just sort of faded away in D2 without really trying to rally and while he claimed excuses, which is you know glass houses, I figured he was most likely to be scum of the people on the field.

But then I just read his ISO for the first time and saw that everything he said and did was straightforward and genuine and that I really need to spend more time reading

ngl, this is a weak reason to retract your second(?) strongest read. What about me seemed straightforward/genuine in a non-fakeable way, and how does that combat everything else you mentioned? (I've tried to explain my EOD1 to Bona earlier btw)

- celaph connecting bozo/damo is good and something I also picked up on.

[celaph]

If Sabi are scum they will win so unless anyone else has doubts I'm going to abandon that line of thinking (for today anyway).

At the moment Sabi (along with DL) are my strongest townreads so I don't mind this for a moment.

[DeathLlama8]

snowy, given the game state at sod2 when you started posting, why did you prioritize the "people who scumread me are bad at mafia" post over the case on ghug? Your wagon felt pretty similar to the d1 wagon in terms of threat to you, and you seemed to indicate that we have to kill ghug today in an earlier post

[DeathLlama8]

Do you think scum!bozo manufactured a read where he simulates the possibility of two people having a mafqt discussion, then inadvertently using the ideas inside and independently converging on reads as a sign that the share a private room? I think it shows creativity and active thinking, for all that the end result appears fairly simple.

My impression from rereading is that he scumread ghug/squigs immediately for having similar reads lists and when pressed, explained the whole maf qt/same POEs connection, which could easily just be fabricating a reason to scumread squigs for something that ghug did.

Also, thinking in terms of wanting a POE out / planning out DK and NK targets kinda feels like projection from a scum mindset

[celaph]

Examining the quintet above I doubt snowy and Bona are a scumpair and I doubt Bona and DL are a scum pair so possible teams are:

Snow darg DL celaph
Snow Darg DL
Snow Darg celaph
Snow DL celaph
Darg Bona celaph
Darg DL celaph

Frequency count:

Snowy 4
Darg 5
DL 4
celaph 5
Bona 1

I'm liking that Damo considered a 4 maf set-up in addition to the 3 maf ones.

[DeathLlama8]

##vote bozo

[celaph]

you know what I don't think I'll have time to write essays anymore until a couple hours from now and I don't want to wait that long to get these out

why ghug is scum

- he had no scum reads most of d1
- says he finally got one on celaph but has he even mentioned it once?
- has no desire to push anyone even slightly and take the game in hand, entirely passive play (yeah he kept talking about bo_sox but when did he actually push that? bona was made by other hands than himself)
- he's completely detached the game, never seen such passive observer mode ghug. Useless ghug? Sure, but he always cared

some things that you should consider moving forward

- nobody scum reads ghug. Have you ever seen that happen? Consider the past games where everyone was up in his grill just because he's allegedly so hard to read
- why is he so okay with the state of this day if he's still trying to figure me out? He's happy about the game state

I'm going to have to reread DL to see why I scum read him so much, started near EoD with him going for bo for sure though

What did you think when I was scumreading ghug at EoN and early today? Why didn't you comment on it?

[celaph]

someone make my DL case for me because I really am busy

Why were you voting for someone you didn't have a case on?

[bozotheclown]

Bozo has increased his activity since day 1, but I don't like that he hasn't pushed an actual case yet this game

Reading ahead in Bozo's iso, it seems he pushes a case on Damo shortly after this. Do you think that your post is related to that push?


@bozo, before this I saw you interacting with a lot of people other than Damo before defaulting back to your earlier read (don't particularly blame you as Damo wasn't the most active). Did your read on any of the people you were interacting with earlier change.

I still find the ghug/Squigs thing suspicious, and I think snowy's case on ghug has merits.

[snowy801]

You have to understand that around 2 hours ago is the first time I actually sat down and analyzed this game. My re-read attempt is still stuck at p28 or something and a huge chunk of the game (esp. n1/first half of d2) was either read bleary eyed as I woke up or skimmed through hastily while I was outside/playing games with other people

My defense of self was something I could make without any further context or information from the game as it only had to do with myself. Any cases on other people required that I spend extensive time and effort re-reading and contemplation, especially as it is very important to me (and to the rest of you guys too I guess as a team) that my reads be correct

Now that I'm actually doing that, a lot of my opinions are shifting. If you truly must have a concrete reason why my opinion on you changed I can go back and fish for it, but right now I'd rather like to slog through these ISOs (like I'm 70% done with damo and I think it's really towny)

[DeathLlama8]

Examining the quintet above I doubt snowy and Bona are a scumpair and I doubt Bona and DL are a scum pair so possible teams are:

why do you doubt snowy/bona are a scumpair?

[bozotheclown]

Squigs: Posts reads list.

Ghug (later on): Posts similar reads list.

Bozo: THAT WAS SCUMMY OF YOU, SQUIGS.

I suspect both ghug and Squigs, I had already wanted to see Squigs flip because of the foodcoats read on him.

[snowy801]

someone make my DL case for me because I really am busy

Why were you voting for someone you didn't have a case on?

I didn't have a case on anyone. You don't need cases to scum read people

[celaph]

you know what I don't think I'll have time to write essays anymore until a couple hours from now and I don't want to wait that long to get these out

why ghug is scum

- he had no scum reads most of d1
- says he finally got one on celaph but has he even mentioned it once?
- has no desire to push anyone even slightly and take the game in hand, entirely passive play (yeah he kept talking about bo_sox but when did he actually push that? bona was made by other hands than himself)
- he's completely detached the game, never seen such passive observer mode ghug. Useless ghug? Sure, but he always cared

some things that you should consider moving forward

- nobody scum reads ghug. Have you ever seen that happen? Consider the past games where everyone was up in his grill just because he's allegedly so hard to read
- why is he so okay with the state of this day if he's still trying to figure me out? He's happy about the game state

I'm going to have to reread DL to see why I scum read him so much, started near EoD with him going for bo for sure though

This has legitimate points but it doesn't sit right with me, because ghug is not in 'passive observer' mode like lfischl is in 'passive observer' mode. Ghug is still a moving part in this game, and even if ghug is not as fired up as he is usually (which I tend to agree with), he's still doing things

To be fair to Snowy though, I feel like if ghug was in lfischl level passive observer mode, I'd be believing out of game problems given their differences in posting frequency. I don't think that is a fair comparison.

[DeathLlama8]

hi sabi
please vote so you don't get modkilled, thanks

[bozotheclown]

@Celaph I would love to hear your take on recent developments given your stances you shared early D2 and now that you've been absent for a while. You've written a whole lot of words but I'd like to see you integrate/participate more D2, especially around EoD if possible

Both pleased that someone asked me a question and saddened that in my absence I went unaddressed for so long.

My opinion of Bozo is trending downwards at the moment. My looks at isos suggest that there is more arguments around Damo at the moment, but at least thus far it looks like he just put his vote there as it was a default place he called out earlier without taking into consideration any of the interactions he had made earlier. If damo is scum, I might be looking here for bussing, but I'd honestly rather flip this slot before Damo. His pushes on Squigs/ghug also very bizarre as far as I can see. ##vote Bozo

Bona seems to be quite passive and just pleased to let the game go where it is going. Not sure where he is getting the idea to vote DL from, though I don't like it.

As my failure highlighted earlier, ghug is hard to build a case on at the moment. He's had some sharp moments as town, but I also think a lot of rather unsolvy play that doesn't give me great feelings, but also not bad enough to make him my top choice to flip atm.

Regarding Damo, nothing feels that scummy here, but nothing feels overly towny. If I had to connect him to anyone it would be bozo and I outlined my thoughts on that above.

Dargorygel has done about as much as I have today.

Snowy I feel the worst about commenting on without having caught up. My primary concern with him is that even at the start of the day he feels way more concerned with protecting himself than actually catching scum. For example, early on this day I had posted my meta read against ghug and he just didn't interact with it. To me that isn't the sign of someone trying to catch scum ghug. My one hesitancy towards him is that I get the feeling that at times he has been genuinely upset this game. I am just not sure if he is upset because he knows that town is losing by killing him or upset because his scum play is failing.

Are you town reading ghug and Squigs?

[Jamiet99uk]

Squigs: Posts reads list.

Ghug (later on): Posts similar reads list.

Bozo: THAT WAS SCUMMY OF YOU, SQUIGS.

I suspect both ghug and Squigs, I had already wanted to see Squigs flip because of the foodcoats read on him.

So when Ghug posted a similar reads list to the one Squigs had posted, this caused you to engage in some hefty confirmation bias? Ok.