Sure, great question. N1 I think Kak is full of shit. Crumbing is a work of art and it goes without saying that it ought to be done so that it is somewhat hidden until the author reveals it when necessary so that they are safe from NKs but can also bolster their credibility when they claim to save themselves from a DK or to lead town gloriously to victory. The moment he said let's hunt the witches was his crumb I no joke started laughing irl at the ridiculousness of it all.DeathLlama8 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 20, 2021 10:03 pmTheFlyingBoat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 4:36 amI want to first start of by saying I don't buy Kakarrotto's claim at all.
What the hell was the crumb nonsense? If I were him I would just claim to not crumb rather than claiming "let's hunt the witches guys!!!!!" or whatever it was he said was his crumb. Like do we seriously believe anyone claims "hey guys let's hunt scum" is an actual crumb? Part of me thinks it may be so terrible that no scum would come up with it, but given the guy has played before AND tried to crumb before I find me that very unlikely. Given that there is no role block in this game though, maybe we just let him live until a day before kilo and let him eat an NK or see if we can get something useful out of him after a few days of watching.@TFB - can you walk us through how your read on kakarroto evolved from start of N1 to whenever damo exposed him D2?TheFlyingBoat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:27 pmIn terms of expected value of D1 votes, which tend to be popularity contests no matter the site (barring completely catastrophic scum play), a vote for lfischlI is probably the highest expected value vote given the downside of being wrong is far lower than the downside of being wrong on anyone else and the odds of hitting scum are about equal. I especially like it since it was the counterwagon to killing you, the supposed tracker.
At the start of Day 2 I admittedly got a little flippant with him for asking that question which really wasn't that bad but at the time due to some other frustrations (Texas choking in back to back weeks in college football) I did not display my usual patience and my bar for what I considered a non stupid question was very high. I therefore decided to toss in a pithy passive-aggressive comment indicating that the supposed tracker should be happy I killed a useless guy instead of him to increase the town's probability of victory and is stupid to ask whether I'm happy lfischl died instead of him when he is claiming to be the tracker because if he were actually the tracker it should be fairly obvious that I would be incredibly happy not to have killed him.
I continued to view him as scum and generally operated off of that principle though admitted the possibility that I could be wrong hence why I wanted to wait until the day before milo/kilo to kill him to let the real tracker do stuff for a couple days then counter claim and publish his tracks as explained in my argument with ghug.
If you look at the way I phrased my plan, I was willing to take any counter over Kak's on account of how little I trusted it and as such wanted to kill Kak before the counterclaimer and treated the possibility that we might be wrong as something to be prepared for but not something to be overly concerned about because I viewed it as unlikely. By the time I saw damo's post it was already night 2 so I knew Kak was confirmed scum and that therefore damo was pretty much the lost sibling so I didn't get to actually have to decide whether I trusted damo or Kak over the other, but that being said I think it was fairly certain I come down on damo's side (with the caveat it is obviously incredibly self serving to say that now ofc).TheFlyingBoat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:52 pmSo is your thought we kill Kak early and free up the tracker to take more shots again? I personally thought earlier the best time to kill him was the day before kilo where we order the tracker to counterclaim and provide all reads, so if we're wrong we can kill the other guy and if there is no counterclaim we trust Kak, order him to dump all his reads, and thank him for his service when mafia invariably kills him that night.ghug wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:25 pmIf Kak's scum, he's going to perform the kills, and the tracker already knows he's scum, which means there's no longer any use to the role.TheFlyingBoat wrote: ↑Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:23 pm
What was your tracker realization? Is it somehow more powerful than I think it is? Even if the tracker hits scum there is still only a 1 in 3 chance we hit them and the chance for mistakes is definitely room for false positives and false negatives.
The tl;dr is from the moment he showed his "crumb" I thought he was scum and had a plan on how and when I wanted him day killed. The timeline for Kak's death was accelerated by a claim. My view stayed roughly the same over the time I was checking the thread, namely that Kak lied and did so I'm a pretty poor gain, whether you look at my N1 message, my D2 rejoinder, and most of all my back and forth with ghug.