M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

@Bona: thoughts?

The only valid strategy I see here is you and worcej pulling off a big sucker win. Otherwise I just don't know.

And to be honest...I'm having trouble seeing that scenario as viable.

Then what is going on lmao

[ghug]

@Bona: thoughts?

The only valid strategy I see here is you and worcej pulling off a big sucker win. Otherwise I just don't know.

I know you're going to keep saying this, but here we go

If scum!me and scum!worcej, could pull it off, it'd be an AMAZING play, but without foreknowledge of how things would turn out, does it look like a good deal to try it? Cause it's half the scumteam for a play that either immediately fails or brings the scumteam down closer to lylo (like now). Our statements are all immediately discarded, and the other 2 scummates (1 probably dead already, ngl) are in a position with tons of clears and almost-clears and are just fucked

What do you mean by "1 probably dead anyway"?

[ghug]

@Bona: thoughts?

The only valid strategy I see here is you and worcej pulling off a big sucker win. Otherwise I just don't know.

And to be honest...I'm having trouble seeing that scenario as viable.

Then what is going on lmao

Also what do you mean by this?

Also why did you entirely quit solving once you were presumed clear?

[Bonatogether]

@Bona: thoughts?

The only valid strategy I see here is you and worcej pulling off a big sucker win. Otherwise I just don't know.

I know you're going to keep saying this, but here we go

If scum!me and scum!worcej, could pull it off, it'd be an AMAZING play, but without foreknowledge of how things would turn out, does it look like a good deal to try it? Cause it's half the scumteam for a play that either immediately fails or brings the scumteam down closer to lylo (like now). Our statements are all immediately discarded, and the other 2 scummates (1 probably dead already, ngl) are in a position with tons of clears and almost-clears and are just fucked

What do you mean by "1 probably dead anyway"?

between jasnah/jamie/tom, there's probably 1 scum on assumption worcej and I are scum.

[Bonatogether]

And to be honest...I'm having trouble seeing that scenario as viable.

Then what is going on lmao

Also what do you mean by this?

Also why did you entirely quit solving once you were presumed clear?

I lost my motivation

There was no more bozo

[ghug]

I know you're going to keep saying this, but here we go

If scum!me and scum!worcej, could pull it off, it'd be an AMAZING play, but without foreknowledge of how things would turn out, does it look like a good deal to try it? Cause it's half the scumteam for a play that either immediately fails or brings the scumteam down closer to lylo (like now). Our statements are all immediately discarded, and the other 2 scummates (1 probably dead already, ngl) are in a position with tons of clears and almost-clears and are just fucked

What do you mean by "1 probably dead anyway"?

between jasnah/jamie/tom, there's probably 1 scum on assumption worcej and I are scum.

But the rest of the comment is discussing the motivation at the moment you did it, which is before two of those people died.

[BunnyGo]

Okay Rivera, but the only reason you've given for Sabi maybe being scum is because of their "defensive "I am just clueless you can kill me" stance" so don't pretend like you've given so many reasons that you can't repeat them.

And my stance on Sabi doesn't have much to do with my scumread of you, except that I think scum certainly looks for easy people to push and I think Sabi is one of those people. The fact that most of your argument seems to be "oh well they might make a bad decision in the end" doesn't help, especially when plenty of "good" or experienced players have also made the wrong call in the end.

@kgray: do you think scum win by us miskilling anymore? Do you think rdr as scum wins by us miskilling sabi? Is this a valid strategy for him? Is this how scum!rdr plays?

I do. Most of the sensible people have townread Sabi. From my perspective, trusting that townread is a valuable step toward us winning. If they get to the end, yes, they might make a bad decision, but usually scum has somebody to pick at the end or is so hopelessly caught that they lose. If all the PRs are real, scum is presumably banking on winning by getting one of you miskilled. Maaaybe two. Certainly not all five clears, so every miskill in the current PoE kill has value to them.

If all the PRs are real, the game is basically over. And if the scum NK the PRs, this just confirms the situation for us.

Pick 1 player you town read and will bank the game on...that's it.

So, is miskilling Sabi a valid strategy for rdr? Who does scum!rdr want around at KiLo? Does he really want you around? Snowy?

[ghug]

Can we have like a 13 person, no PR mini game when this ends? I need a proverbial shower.

[Bonatogether]

What do you mean by "1 probably dead anyway"?

between jasnah/jamie/tom, there's probably 1 scum on assumption worcej and I are scum.

But the rest of the comment is discussing the motivation at the moment you did it, which is before two of those people died.

I messed it up?

[kgray]

What's the right decision here?

Well, you seem to agree with me that Chaqa is the Cop, and you don’t have an issue with my reasoning. So it sounds like you think not doubting Chaqa’s claim is the right decision, and that it’s good to have the clarity of mind to recognize that and move on.

But then you’re also suspicious of me for reaching the same conclusion and acting accordingly, because in your mind I’m meant to descend into a deeper case of paranoia and not have the clarity of mind to move on. You’re essentially saying that if I were town, I wouldn’t be capable of figuring it out and moving on, which shoehorns me into this role of unhelpful paranoia.

I haven't moved on, I'm still super fucking suspicious, but the logical side of me is telling me it doesn't need to be acted on yet. You showed less restraint than me on that front when you wanted to kill him days 2 and 3, but then you flipped to not even bothering to be suspicious. It's weird.

idk I don't think it's that weird? I didn't think Chaqa was the cop until it became apparent that nobody would CC him and the only viable dead cop was cleared as a VT. It's pretty similar to how I reacted to all of it, and you think I'm town.

And also I disagree on your 'doesn't need to be acted on yet' sentiment because honestly there's not a chance I believe any future cop claimants at this point.

[Chaqa]

Ghug, 3 top scumreads

Kgray, still waiting on yours

[kgray]

Unfortunately the solutions don't get any better even with knowledge about my role. Like, I know I'm the Cop, but I can see pretty much any other of the PRs being potentially fake except probably TFB.

Why mafia is shooting non-clears, I'm not sure.

Could Bozo have been actual Doc? Maybe. But it seems pretty unlikely.

The whole game state is a clusterfuck

Bona and worcej are not fake. There is literally no universe where bozo was the real doctor and scum held a NK to frame him when he was already obvscum by that point.

I don't even think you're lying anymore. TFB was premature but I don't think lying, because in the off-chance that scum totally misread whatever PR read of lfischl I assume they had, he'd be screwed.

I can't see Bunny CCing Jasnah as scum so early in the day, there's no way he'd have felt that pressure.

The game is a clusterfuck because mafia are shooting non-clears for wifom reasons. Unless somebody has a great case on why a "clear" isn't clear then I think we ignore it.

[ghug]

@kgray: do you think scum win by us miskilling anymore? Do you think rdr as scum wins by us miskilling sabi? Is this a valid strategy for him? Is this how scum!rdr plays?

I do. Most of the sensible people have townread Sabi. From my perspective, trusting that townread is a valuable step toward us winning. If they get to the end, yes, they might make a bad decision, but usually scum has somebody to pick at the end or is so hopelessly caught that they lose. If all the PRs are real, scum is presumably banking on winning by getting one of you miskilled. Maaaybe two. Certainly not all five clears, so every miskill in the current PoE kill has value to them.

If all the PRs are real, the game is basically over. And if the scum NK the PRs, this just confirms the situation for us.

Pick 1 player you town read and will bank the game on...that's it.

So, is miskilling Sabi a valid strategy for rdr? Who does scum!rdr want around at KiLo? Does he really want you around? Snowy?

If you're assuming all the PRs are real and nobody will ever doubt them (which I don't think is a fair assumption about the scum strategy, given the Durga kill), there has to be one scum left and they're hoping for six miskills, or there have to be two hoping for five. There are eight unclears out there, and there's an oracle somewhere, so scum has to get every VT in that pool killed.

[ghug]

Ghug, 3 top scumreads

Kgray, still waiting on yours

Rivera, snowy, Eden? Rivera, Eden, snowy? Chaqa, worcej, bona?

[kgray]

Ghug, 3 top scumreads

Kgray, still waiting on yours

Oh sorry, I'm behind again.

Rivera, snowy, and Eden maybe? I don't know. I can convince myself it's not Vecna or ghug but I also don't really have that much conviction there. Maybe Doom but I think that's just paranoia and her recent relative silence.

So like almost every non "clear"

[President Eden]

The fact that the Oracle hard counters hypothetical mafia worcej’s + Bona’s strategy is enough for me to discard it.

Chaqa and/or Boat could have gotten lucky and nightkilled the roles they ended up claiming.

But mafia in worcej’s and Bona’s spot just takes the 1-for-1, kills bozo, kills our PRs and then keeps rolling. Forget analyzing the costs of the play—though they are relevant; they gave us an extra kill for it after all—and look at the benefit. We literally just point an Oracle at bozo and the whole play is broken. No mafia looks at that and goes “nah bro they won’t point the Oracle there, fuck it.” They think “alright, we traded one guy for the Doctor, not ideal but acceptable.”

[kgray]

Those are all possible, but collectively are highly unlikely to me—so much so that I’d rather not spend one of our shots on Chaqa without an explicit counterclaim from someone. I think he’s less likely to be mafia than anyone in the POE, and we don’t have enough shots to get through the POE from an objective standpoint. So I don’t really see the utility in continuing to think about it and worry about it.

I’d be inclined to believe almost any counterclaim (and perhaps this is what mafia is counting on?), but I see no reason to spend time on thinking through a counterclaim that may never come. It was one thing back on Day 2 or Day 3 when the Cop might not want to claim just yet, but in my mind they’ve clearly had their chance and passed.

Wait at this point? You'd believe any cop CC??

[ghug]

Unfortunately the solutions don't get any better even with knowledge about my role. Like, I know I'm the Cop, but I can see pretty much any other of the PRs being potentially fake except probably TFB.

Why mafia is shooting non-clears, I'm not sure.

Could Bozo have been actual Doc? Maybe. But it seems pretty unlikely.

The whole game state is a clusterfuck

Bona and worcej are not fake. There is literally no universe where bozo was the real doctor and scum held a NK to frame him when he was already obvscum by that point.

I don't even think you're lying anymore. TFB was premature but I don't think lying, because in the off-chance that scum totally misread whatever PR read of lfischl I assume they had, he'd be screwed.

I can't see Bunny CCing Jasnah as scum so early in the day, there's no way he'd have felt that pressure.

The game is a clusterfuck because mafia are shooting non-clears for wifom reasons. Unless somebody has a great case on why a "clear" isn't clear then I think we ignore it.

I know I've been the considerer today, but that's been more about Eden. I think we start seriously considering if clears are lying in two days, since it's theoretically possible we're at KILO at that point. We shouldn't even entertain it at that point. Even then I think it's better to wait a third day because KILO is unlikely and then the rest of the days too because the whole thing is unlikely, but right now we shouldn't even bother.

[President Eden]

Those are all possible, but collectively are highly unlikely to me—so much so that I’d rather not spend one of our shots on Chaqa without an explicit counterclaim from someone. I think he’s less likely to be mafia than anyone in the POE, and we don’t have enough shots to get through the POE from an objective standpoint. So I don’t really see the utility in continuing to think about it and worry about it.

I’d be inclined to believe almost any counterclaim (and perhaps this is what mafia is counting on?), but I see no reason to spend time on thinking through a counterclaim that may never come. It was one thing back on Day 2 or Day 3 when the Cop might not want to claim just yet, but in my mind they’ve clearly had their chance and passed.

Wait at this point? You'd believe any cop CC??

I shouldn’t have said “almost any,” to be completely honest it’s contextual and I can’t speculate. The place at which I later arrived was that we just treat him as town if/until a counterclaim arises and then look at it. It’s not worth spending energy on hypothetical counterclaims.

[Chaqa]

Ghug, give me exactly three names. Not including any of the clears