M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

If we can get the oracle to flip someone (especially someone alive now), then we have a lot more information. Flipping jasnah is only insurance against if one of the clears is bullshit, which isn't impossible? But given how things are I think we really just have to gamble on the most likely scenario being the one that's true (that the clears are all legit).

True. There are better uses of the Oracle than insurance against unlikely scenarios. It’d be best if we could point it at someone still alive at this point, and luckily we’ll be able to do so provided we kill someone—literally anyone—today.

I think we should kill a VT hard claimant. I believe so far that’s me, rivera, and Sabi. Obviously I don’t want to go, but reasoning from an objective outside perspective, any of these people wouldn’t have hardclaimed VT while actually being the Oracle (I think). So we’ll be giving the Oracle a valid target.

We should leave the Oracle unclaimed so that mafia might make a mistake and shoot the Oracle instead of a clear.

[President Eden]

I think Oracle claims only at KILO or if they’re on the block with T-10mins. Otherwise, if mafia want to continue to be galaxy brains and try to stir up paranoia against the clears, they run the risk of making the game actual factual auto by shooting the Oracle and giving us the last two clears we need.

[President Eden]

One last thing.

snowy, I’m obviously not happy with how Chaqa’s played this game either, but I don’t see the benefit in getting into it with him about it. He’s disappointed that he rolled a powerful town PR and then largely got neutralized because town was unlucky in its Day 1 pushes. As is often the case on Day 1, there wasn’t much of substance to refute to the accusations made against him. Maybe we could have asked for a more nuanced and deeper dive into the Miller claims question, but you can imagine why a Cop would rather just 50/50 them and focus his attention elsewhere. It’s pretty easy to see why he’d be annoyed about it.

To me, you should either (1) be making the case that he’s actually a fake, or (2) let well enough alone and focus efforts elsewhere. As someone who spent quite a lot of time on (1) I wish you good luck, but I’m pretty sure he’s the real Cop, and blasting the way he’s handled past events doesn’t get us any closer to winning the game.

[…]

I’m gonna go play Stellaris and turn it over to the clears to figure out what else they want from me

[ghug]

That’s their loss then…

But we should delay the choice and put it to them.

In bridge we’d call this a squeeze. Whatever they choose will end up harming them because we get to choose 2nd. If they leave our clears, we can afford an Oracle “miskill” to clear it up for us. If they don’t. We don’t need to kill the Oracle and can just have them as a clear.

does town have the collective willpower to not start voting them out?

I’m not budging. And I think chaqa, Rdr, Vecna, snowy, worcej, you, TFB, doom, Eden, Ghug and even Sabi are willing to vote Sabi.

Why do you think I'm willing to vote Sabi.

[ghug]

?*

[ghug]

Actually, I suppose I should stop prattling and ask the clears what they want from here. However you intend to solve the game from your perspective, what can I do to help?

Responding to this instead of your long post because it's shorter.

1. I really don't think the sudden "let's defer to the clears" act from you. It's bad play at the best of times, and our clears are playing particularly poorly right now.
2. My problem with your jasnah logic is that I think option 4 is far and away the most likely AND I'm not convinced jasnah's any more likely as the way our clears could be lying than anyone else?

[snowy801]

I'm also a VT for whatever that's worth

And Eden you have a Stellaris problem

[ghug]

.*

All my nerd meetings are distracting.

[Bonatogether]

If we can get the oracle to flip someone (especially someone alive now), then we have a lot more information. Flipping jasnah is only insurance against if one of the clears is bullshit, which isn't impossible? But given how things are I think we really just have to gamble on the most likely scenario being the one that's true (that the clears are all legit).

True. There are better uses of the Oracle than insurance against unlikely scenarios. It’d be best if we could point it at someone still alive at this point, and luckily we’ll be able to do so provided we kill someone—literally anyone—today.

I think we should kill a VT hard claimant. I believe so far that’s me, rivera, and Sabi. Obviously I don’t want to go, but reasoning from an objective outside perspective, any of these people wouldn’t have hardclaimed VT while actually being the Oracle (I think). So we’ll be giving the Oracle a valid target.

We should leave the Oracle unclaimed so that mafia might make a mistake and shoot the Oracle instead of a clear.

Yeah. VTs are expendable. We don't care about them anymore aside from the fact that they could be scum, so we really should just start flipping them. There's several that we agree are most likely not scum, so we pretty much have a 95% chance of a dub here without thinking any more.

That is the best-case scenario, possibly aside from Chaqa getting a second scan.

[ghug]

I'm also a VT for whatever that's worth

And Eden you have a Stellaris problem

I don't think you should be claiming not Oracle unless you think it's best for the Oracle to reveal now.

[snowy801]

I'm also a VT for whatever that's worth

And Eden you have a Stellaris problem

I don't think you should be claiming not Oracle unless you think it's best for the Oracle to reveal now.

Shrug
I already did, so it's spilt milk

[President Eden]

Actually, I suppose I should stop prattling and ask the clears what they want from here. However you intend to solve the game from your perspective, what can I do to help?

Responding to this instead of your long post because it's shorter.

1. I really don't think the sudden "let's defer to the clears" act from you. It's bad play at the best of times, and our clears are playing particularly poorly right now.
2. My problem with your jasnah logic is that I think option 4 is far and away the most likely AND I'm not convinced jasnah's any more likely as the way our clears could be lying than anyone else?

1. They’re the ones who have actual decisions to make. I’m not saying I’m not going to do anything else this day/this game/whatever, just that ultimately they are the ones who have to get it right from among all of us, and so it makes more sense for me to focus my analysis on things that will help them, rather than just guessing what would help them, because from my perspective the game is solved—and unless you’re the Oracle, that should also be true for you too.
2. After Bona made a similar point, I agree that we should want to flip someone else with the Oracle. On further reflection, I think it’s probably moot, but to the extent it matters, you’re right that the Oracle should target someone else (probably whoever we kill today).

[ghug]

Actually, I suppose I should stop prattling and ask the clears what they want from here. However you intend to solve the game from your perspective, what can I do to help?

Responding to this instead of your long post because it's shorter.

1. I really don't think the sudden "let's defer to the clears" act from you. It's bad play at the best of times, and our clears are playing particularly poorly right now.
2. My problem with your jasnah logic is that I think option 4 is far and away the most likely AND I'm not convinced jasnah's any more likely as the way our clears could be lying than anyone else?

1. They’re the ones who have actual decisions to make. I’m not saying I’m not going to do anything else this day/this game/whatever, just that ultimately they are the ones who have to get it right from among all of us, and so it makes more sense for me to focus my analysis on things that will help them, rather than just guessing what would help them, because from my perspective the game is solved—and unless you’re the Oracle, that should also be true for you too.
2. After Bona made a similar point, I agree that we should want to flip someone else with the Oracle. On further reflection, I think it’s probably moot, but to the extent it matters, you’re right that the Oracle should target someone else (probably whoever we kill today).

Oh, I also don't like how inauthentic your progression to townreading Chaqa was.

[President Eden]

And actually in that spirit, since Bunny is asking a lot about Sabi, and since other clears have expressed interest in killing there, I’m not convinced that Sabi is mafia. When I started coming up with a priority list of daykills before realizing the game was just auto FMPOV, Sabi was near the bottom. I just don’t see the act that others do.

I agree Sabi’s voting record isn’t great. There are a lot of votes that manage to be off mafia wagons, which kind of fits the profile of someone who doesn’t want to bus a teammate, which in turn fits the profile of newer mafia players. But idk, can’t even really point to specific things, I just think Sabi’s being genuine. Probably a bit overfocused on not dying and on being townread, but that’s certainly within new town player range.

[President Eden]

Oh, I also don't like how inauthentic your progression to townreading Chaqa was.

What on Earth was inauthentic about it? I hate how he’s played some parts of the game. But how I feel about it doesn’t matter. He hard claimed a guilty on Tom, no one counterclaimed. The only way that the real Cop doesn’t counterclaim there is if (1) the real Cop is dead, which I went over extensively; or (2) the real Cop also had a guilty on Tom and decided to let it ride, which would be wild, but would also suggest the real Cop is still alive to counterclaim Chaqa now (and should definitely beyond a shadow of a doubt do so if this is true). I don’t think there’s a way to make sense of the world where Chaqa isn’t Cop without a living player counterclaiming him, so unless that happens I see no reason to doubt his claim further. I can take all kinds of issue with how he’s done it without doubting it.

[ghug]

Oh, I also don't like how inauthentic your progression to townreading Chaqa was.

What on Earth was inauthentic about it? I hate how he’s played some parts of the game. But how I feel about it doesn’t matter. He hard claimed a guilty on Tom, no one counterclaimed. The only way that the real Cop doesn’t counterclaim there is if (1) the real Cop is dead, which I went over extensively; or (2) the real Cop also had a guilty on Tom and decided to let it ride, which would be wild, but would also suggest the real Cop is still alive to counterclaim Chaqa now (and should definitely beyond a shadow of a doubt do so if this is true). I don’t think there’s a way to make sense of the world where Chaqa isn’t Cop without a living player counterclaiming him, so unless that happens I see no reason to doubt his claim further. I can take all kinds of issue with how he’s done it without doubting it.

It happened very suddenly and awkwardly. I empathized with you for most of the game because your emotional baggage with Chaqa felt genuine and I had the same healthy skepticism, but I think the townie reaction to the mounting evidence that Chaqa is actually the cop, especially combined with the weird night actions, is shock, disbelief, and paranoia. I expected to see that amplified in you because of the emotional baggage, but instead you just kinda stopped questioning it.

[Chaqa]

FWIW I also don’t really think Sabi is mafia. They would be below several others on my priority.

[President Eden]

It happened very suddenly and awkwardly. I empathized with you for most of the game because your emotional baggage with Chaqa felt genuine and I had the same healthy skepticism, but I think the townie reaction to the mounting evidence that Chaqa is actually the cop, especially combined with the weird night actions, is shock, disbelief, and paranoia. I expected to see that amplified in you because of the emotional baggage, but instead you just kinda stopped questioning it.

The night actions don’t really matter that much in hindsight. What mattered was that Chaqa claimed a guilty on Tom and no living player counterclaimed Cop. Unless the Cop also had a guilty on Tom, they should have claimed at that point to prevent a likely misfire. Since they didn’t, I presume that either the real Cop is still out there, or they’re among the dead, or they’re Chaqa. At that point the only people who could be Cop besides Chaqa are:

jasnah—covered earlier
damo—ditto
bozo—claimed Doc
lfischl—meh
Jamie—claimed VT
Flum—claimed VT

I guess I didn’t cover lfischl in the recap posts, but it’s been my belief for a while that lfischl would have counterclaimed Chaqa. He had at least one post clearly indicating that he knew Chaqa claimed, and in fact explicitly asked why the real Cop hadn’t cc’d if Chaqa was faking. I don’t think he fakes that as the actual Cop, I think that was real belief that Chaqa was the Cop due to no cc.

I did cover jasnah and damo, and I trust Jamie and Flum not to have let Chaqa go uncontested. I also trust bozo not to have claimed Doc and gone through the rigamarole he did as Cop lol… and since then we killed Tom (claimed VT) and Durga (did not cc), both of whom I also trust not to have let Chaqa’s claim go uncontested.

At that point you either have to decide jasnah or damo is the Cop or you have to drop any suspicion of Chaqa, period. And I’ve gone over those scenarios many times… and I just don’t see it.

So that’s why it’s sudden, I suppose. All the other evidence pales in comparison to that specific inflection point, because while it’s conceivable to me that a real Cop might wait to rack up scans for a while, it seems like stopping a fake claimant from pushing a kill through on a guilty scan you know they didn’t get is a high enough priority to draw out a counterclaim, and one didn’t come.

As for awkward… is it? Maybe in the sense that I’m still not particularly happy about him being Cop, since if he is town, he’s made some appeals to me that I find rather underhanded and unwarranted between teammates. In the interest of minimizing unnecessary drama I’ve minimized my comments on it. Maybe there’s some disconnect there that leads you to that conclusion?

[DemonRHK]

Completely Fallible Human Yet GM Vote Count Day Six The First
(Through post 11378)

BesharamSabi(4) - rdrivera2005, BunnyGo*, worcej, Bonatogether
rdrivera2005(3) - snowy801, ghug, kgray
Vecna(2) - BesharamSabi*, President Eden*
ghug(1) - Doom427
snowy801(1) - Chaqa

Unvote(1) - Vecna
Non-votes(1) - TheFlyingBoat

Currently, BESHARAMSABI is set to be killed.

##GM NOTE

The bot is NOT picking up votes for 'Sabi' correctly and is inaccurate. Players are asked to cast votes with full names when possible for clarity, but clearly identified votes are absolutely counted.

23.5 Hours remain in Day 6.

[President Eden]

##UNEND