M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[snowy801]

People I will vote for today:
ghug
kgray
rdrivera2005
snowy801

Do you think ghug/kgray could be both scum?

If not, which is your preference and why?

[President Eden]

worcej thought bona was cop and I figured he might be JOAT so I think there is reason to believe they're PR hunting.

Maybe lfischl was killed because they thought he was oracle and wanted Jasnah to flip? I'm not entirely sure what the motive would be there I'll think about it

Hunting for the Oracle is particularly pointless as it's self-confirming and works even if it dies. Hunting for the JOAT before night 3 is understandable, but from night 3 onward the JOAT has done whatever it's going to do, and is likely to claim as TheFlyingJOAT did to ensure its info isn't lost, so there's not a lot of point to hunting for it by then.

lfischl's kill superficially looks like PR hunting, but the only unclaimed PRs remaining when they'd have made the call are not PRs you would actually go hunting for. So again, setting my idea aside, they weren't PR hunting.

[snowy801]

worcej thought bona was cop and I figured he might be JOAT so I think there is reason to believe they're PR hunting.

Maybe lfischl was killed because they thought he was oracle and wanted Jasnah to flip? I'm not entirely sure what the motive would be there I'll think about it

Hunting for the Oracle is particularly pointless as it's self-confirming and works even if it dies. Hunting for the JOAT before night 3 is understandable, but from night 3 onward the JOAT has done whatever it's going to do, and is likely to claim as TheFlyingJOAT did to ensure its info isn't lost, so there's not a lot of point to hunting for it by then.

lfischl's kill superficially looks like PR hunting, but the only unclaimed PRs remaining when they'd have made the call are not PRs you would actually go hunting for. So again, setting my idea aside, they weren't PR hunting.

1) Oracle is a town clear, so taking them out is beneficial regardless if right
2) It might prevent the use of a decisive strategic oracle use in the future
3) I still think they might be shooting for cops, though my confidence is somewhat waning. Still, not one to be discarded. Was there any reason to think lfischl looked coppish?

I do agree that if they're not PR hunting they're trying to set up the appearance of such, which may be an attempt to frame Chaqa (who else is touchable in that lineup) which is unfortunate if true

[ghug]

There is -at least- 1 person in a very specific sub-set of this playerlist on the scumteam, yes.

I wont embarass myself trying to narrow it down who would and would not make that cut in my mind, but it points towards a certain playstyle that gave this quite a lot of thought.

Reach for the stars Vecna, you'll can always use it in the future as evidence if you're right and if not who's even going to remember it

I mean, my first instinct was going to be that it would be in the group of <PE/Chaqa/Vecna/Snowy>

But this is just stacking assumption on top of assumption, and really doesnt result in any actually usefull deductions.

Having taken much smaller risks as scum with bozo before, he'd have to have been pretty strongly overridden. I also thank you for not including me. Clears win games.

[snowy801]

Honestly Eden/kgray whoever the strat might be just to universally town read Chaqa so scum get scared and shoot him if he's real

[President Eden]

1) Oracle is a town clear, so taking them out is beneficial regardless if right
2) It might prevent the use of a decisive strategic oracle use in the future
3) I still think they might be shooting for cops, though my confidence is somewhat waning. Still, not one to be discarded. Was there any reason to think lfischl looked coppish?

I do agree that if they're not PR hunting they're trying to set up the appearance of such, which may be an attempt to frame Chaqa (who else is touchable in that lineup) which is unfortunate if true

(1) is true, but I at least would value capping a claimed Cop or a confirmed Doc over a hypothetical Oracle to prevent a claim. I imagine virtually any mafia team would, too.
If (2) is a factor then that points to the existing deaths being inconsequential. Probably means jasnah is VT, damo is VT, bozo is non-Godfather mafia.
As for (3), maybe, but it's kind of odd that they'd shoot lfischl, because while a few people picked up that he might be a PR, Cop wasn't on anyone's radar to my knowledge.

[President Eden]

Honestly Eden/kgray whoever the strat might be just to universally town read Chaqa so scum get scared and shoot him if he's real

why would you give this away -.-

[snowy801]

Honestly Eden/kgray whoever the strat might be just to universally town read Chaqa so scum get scared and shoot him if he's real

why would you give this away -.-

Don't worry if we never say it again they'll forget it entirely

[President Eden]

Regardless, it doesnt matter.

If all the PR's are real, this type of approach is likely also the only way to a win for scum.

Shoot any people that could somewhat be seen as a potential PR. Create distrust. Make sure not all corpses can be dug up and we just grow more paranoid over time. Never kill the PR's and we'll turn on them eventually.

This is a good point, and runs counter to the concept someone mentioned earlier that this looks like a noob scum team

Who said that I want to town read them for it

There is -at least- 1 person in a very specific sub-set of this playerlist on the scumteam, yes.

I wont embarass myself trying to narrow it down who would and would not make that cut in my mind, but it points towards a certain playstyle that gave this quite a lot of thought.

Not to stir any more shit tonight, but Bunny would

[President Eden]

Just to be very clear I don't think Bunny is mafia. Just that that's the type of player who would take such a psychoanalytical approach to the game.

[snowy801]

1) Oracle is a town clear, so taking them out is beneficial regardless if right
2) It might prevent the use of a decisive strategic oracle use in the future
3) I still think they might be shooting for cops, though my confidence is somewhat waning. Still, not one to be discarded. Was there any reason to think lfischl looked coppish?

I do agree that if they're not PR hunting they're trying to set up the appearance of such, which may be an attempt to frame Chaqa (who else is touchable in that lineup) which is unfortunate if true

(1) is true, but I at least would value capping a claimed Cop or a confirmed Doc over a hypothetical Oracle to prevent a claim. I imagine virtually any mafia team would, too.
If (2) is a factor then that points to the existing deaths being inconsequential. Probably means jasnah is VT, damo is VT, bozo is non-Godfather mafia.
As for (3), maybe, but it's kind of odd that they'd shoot lfischl, because while a few people picked up that he might be a PR, Cop wasn't on anyone's radar to my knowledge.

Honestly I didn't even pick anything up and I checked him out after your hints

I thought you were trying to draw the shot to a typically useless low poster, which if worked then great job maybe

[President Eden]

1) Oracle is a town clear, so taking them out is beneficial regardless if right
2) It might prevent the use of a decisive strategic oracle use in the future
3) I still think they might be shooting for cops, though my confidence is somewhat waning. Still, not one to be discarded. Was there any reason to think lfischl looked coppish?

I do agree that if they're not PR hunting they're trying to set up the appearance of such, which may be an attempt to frame Chaqa (who else is touchable in that lineup) which is unfortunate if true

(1) is true, but I at least would value capping a claimed Cop or a confirmed Doc over a hypothetical Oracle to prevent a claim. I imagine virtually any mafia team would, too.
If (2) is a factor then that points to the existing deaths being inconsequential. Probably means jasnah is VT, damo is VT, bozo is non-Godfather mafia.
As for (3), maybe, but it's kind of odd that they'd shoot lfischl, because while a few people picked up that he might be a PR, Cop wasn't on anyone's radar to my knowledge.

Honestly I didn't even pick anything up and I checked him out after your hints

I thought you were trying to draw the shot to a typically useless low poster, which if worked then great job maybe

that's fucked up and I would never

[snowy801]

(1) is true, but I at least would value capping a claimed Cop or a confirmed Doc over a hypothetical Oracle to prevent a claim. I imagine virtually any mafia team would, too.
If (2) is a factor then that points to the existing deaths being inconsequential. Probably means jasnah is VT, damo is VT, bozo is non-Godfather mafia.
As for (3), maybe, but it's kind of odd that they'd shoot lfischl, because while a few people picked up that he might be a PR, Cop wasn't on anyone's radar to my knowledge.

Honestly I didn't even pick anything up and I checked him out after your hints

I thought you were trying to draw the shot to a typically useless low poster, which if worked then great job maybe

that's fucked up and I would never

You're a better guy than me I'm absolutely doing this to people who piss me off in the future

"oops I slipped a PR hint mea culpa"

[President Eden]

Remind me to vociferously claim VT in every game we're in

[ghug]

Bona wasn't a town clear EoD1...

Yeah, it's more that your specific actions have the hallmarks of a fakeclaim.

Care to expound, mon frere?

Sure. If I'm fakeclaiming a role with night actions, I want my actions to be a) plausible, b) unfalsifiable, and c) not give town any information when I'm eventually caught. You scanned a townclear, you oracled damo, who in my opinion was obviously not the cop, and you docsaved someone right as you were claiming, which is easy to not get wrong if you know who the NK target is. They're all plausible (though I haven't actually checked who the scan is yet), but it's also what a scum claim would look like.

That said, I see no scum motivation whatsoever for scum to claim when you did. Really I'm more just grumpy that your scan was unfortunate, your oracle was dumb, and you claimed (and probably used your actions) prematurely.

[ghug]

Day 1 VCA doesn't look great for ghug if my belief jasnah was scum is true.

I also think he's the type who would play up the misdirection strategy scum seems to be employing.

I'm not so sure kgray or rivera would go for it.

Maybe snowy, but I haven't seem his scumgame. His imposter game is usually pretty strong, though.

No I'm not. This is textbook you and textbook Jamie. I could see it from Flum/Vecna too, but I townread them. PE and snowy are maybes.

[TheFlyingBoat]

Yeah, it's more that your specific actions have the hallmarks of a fakeclaim.

Care to expound, mon frere?

Sure. If I'm fakeclaiming a role with night actions, I want my actions to be a) plausible, b) unfalsifiable, and c) not give town any information when I'm eventually caught. You scanned a townclear, you oracled damo, who in my opinion was obviously not the cop, and you docsaved someone right as you were claiming, which is easy to not get wrong if you know who the NK target is. They're all plausible (though I haven't actually checked who the scan is yet), but it's also what a scum claim would look like.

That said, I see no scum motivation whatsoever for scum to claim when you did. Really I'm more just grumpy that your scan was unfortunate, your oracle was dumb, and you claimed (and probably used your actions) prematurely.

I think you're vastly underestimating how many people incorrectly believed damo was cop in this thread, including some town clears.

[BunnyGo]

Honestly Eden/kgray whoever the strat might be just to universally town read Chaqa so scum get scared and shoot him if he's real

Ok. So I just sent to the GT my analysis of how the end game will look. I was too excited before. We have 5 miskills left before KiLo (if I mathed correctly). We should think hard about who we want with us then.

I’m happy with the Tom wagon.

I’m happier with ##vote Eden

[ghug]

Well clearly something... unorthodox/tinfoil/whatever is happening, whatever it might be. These kills are bizarre no matter what your theory for them is

I'm confused why you think the kills are weird if you're convinced Chaqa's scum. Can you elaborate?

[President Eden]

Well clearly something... unorthodox/tinfoil/whatever is happening, whatever it might be. These kills are bizarre no matter what your theory for them is

I'm confused why you think the kills are weird if you're convinced Chaqa's scum. Can you elaborate?

I don't think lfischl had any real shot at being the Cop based on his behavior, so if they were cophunting killing him is still weird. I thought he was Oracle based off a few early posts about how the role worked that showed some uncharacteristically high interest in it. But if he were Cop and Chaqa were mafia then I feel strongly that he'd have come out and said it. He was a straight shooter with his suspects all the way.