Do you think ghug/kgray could be both scum?
If not, which is your preference and why?
#8381 Post by snowy801 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:47 pm
Do you think ghug/kgray could be both scum?
#8382 Post by President Eden » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:47 pm
Hunting for the Oracle is particularly pointless as it's self-confirming and works even if it dies. Hunting for the JOAT before night 3 is understandable, but from night 3 onward the JOAT has done whatever it's going to do, and is likely to claim as TheFlyingJOAT did to ensure its info isn't lost, so there's not a lot of point to hunting for it by then.snowy801 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:42 pmworcej thought bona was cop and I figured he might be JOAT so I think there is reason to believe they're PR hunting.
Maybe lfischl was killed because they thought he was oracle and wanted Jasnah to flip? I'm not entirely sure what the motive would be there I'll think about it
#8383 Post by snowy801 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:51 pm
1) Oracle is a town clear, so taking them out is beneficial regardless if rightPresident Eden wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:47 pmHunting for the Oracle is particularly pointless as it's self-confirming and works even if it dies. Hunting for the JOAT before night 3 is understandable, but from night 3 onward the JOAT has done whatever it's going to do, and is likely to claim as TheFlyingJOAT did to ensure its info isn't lost, so there's not a lot of point to hunting for it by then.snowy801 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:42 pmworcej thought bona was cop and I figured he might be JOAT so I think there is reason to believe they're PR hunting.
Maybe lfischl was killed because they thought he was oracle and wanted Jasnah to flip? I'm not entirely sure what the motive would be there I'll think about it
lfischl's kill superficially looks like PR hunting, but the only unclaimed PRs remaining when they'd have made the call are not PRs you would actually go hunting for. So again, setting my idea aside, they weren't PR hunting.
#8384 Post by ghug » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:53 pm
Having taken much smaller risks as scum with bozo before, he'd have to have been pretty strongly overridden. I also thank you for not including me. Clears win games.Vecna wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:48 pmI mean, my first instinct was going to be that it would be in the group of <PE/Chaqa/Vecna/Snowy>snowy801 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:43 pmReach for the stars Vecna, you'll can always use it in the future as evidence if you're right and if not who's even going to remember itVecna wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:41 pm
There is -at least- 1 person in a very specific sub-set of this playerlist on the scumteam, yes.
I wont embarass myself trying to narrow it down who would and would not make that cut in my mind, but it points towards a certain playstyle that gave this quite a lot of thought.
But this is just stacking assumption on top of assumption, and really doesnt result in any actually usefull deductions.
#8385 Post by snowy801 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:55 pm
#8386 Post by President Eden » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:58 pm
(1) is true, but I at least would value capping a claimed Cop or a confirmed Doc over a hypothetical Oracle to prevent a claim. I imagine virtually any mafia team would, too.snowy801 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:51 pm1) Oracle is a town clear, so taking them out is beneficial regardless if right
2) It might prevent the use of a decisive strategic oracle use in the future
3) I still think they might be shooting for cops, though my confidence is somewhat waning. Still, not one to be discarded. Was there any reason to think lfischl looked coppish?
I do agree that if they're not PR hunting they're trying to set up the appearance of such, which may be an attempt to frame Chaqa (who else is touchable in that lineup) which is unfortunate if true
#8387 Post by President Eden » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:58 pm
why would you give this away -.-
#8388 Post by snowy801 » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:59 pm
Don't worry if we never say it again they'll forget it entirely
#8389 Post by President Eden » Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:59 pm
Not to stir any more shit tonight, but Bunny wouldVecna wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:41 pmThere is -at least- 1 person in a very specific sub-set of this playerlist on the scumteam, yes.snowy801 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:38 pmThis is a good point, and runs counter to the concept someone mentioned earlier that this looks like a noob scum teamVecna wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:35 pmRegardless, it doesnt matter.
If all the PR's are real, this type of approach is likely also the only way to a win for scum.
Shoot any people that could somewhat be seen as a potential PR. Create distrust. Make sure not all corpses can be dug up and we just grow more paranoid over time. Never kill the PR's and we'll turn on them eventually.
Who said that I want to town read them for it
I wont embarass myself trying to narrow it down who would and would not make that cut in my mind, but it points towards a certain playstyle that gave this quite a lot of thought.
#8390 Post by President Eden » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:01 am
#8391 Post by snowy801 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:01 am
Honestly I didn't even pick anything up and I checked him out after your hintsPresident Eden wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:58 pm(1) is true, but I at least would value capping a claimed Cop or a confirmed Doc over a hypothetical Oracle to prevent a claim. I imagine virtually any mafia team would, too.snowy801 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:51 pm1) Oracle is a town clear, so taking them out is beneficial regardless if right
2) It might prevent the use of a decisive strategic oracle use in the future
3) I still think they might be shooting for cops, though my confidence is somewhat waning. Still, not one to be discarded. Was there any reason to think lfischl looked coppish?
I do agree that if they're not PR hunting they're trying to set up the appearance of such, which may be an attempt to frame Chaqa (who else is touchable in that lineup) which is unfortunate if true
If (2) is a factor then that points to the existing deaths being inconsequential. Probably means jasnah is VT, damo is VT, bozo is non-Godfather mafia.
As for (3), maybe, but it's kind of odd that they'd shoot lfischl, because while a few people picked up that he might be a PR, Cop wasn't on anyone's radar to my knowledge.
#8392 Post by President Eden » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:02 am
that's fucked up and I would neversnowy801 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:01 amHonestly I didn't even pick anything up and I checked him out after your hintsPresident Eden wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:58 pm(1) is true, but I at least would value capping a claimed Cop or a confirmed Doc over a hypothetical Oracle to prevent a claim. I imagine virtually any mafia team would, too.snowy801 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:51 pm1) Oracle is a town clear, so taking them out is beneficial regardless if right
2) It might prevent the use of a decisive strategic oracle use in the future
3) I still think they might be shooting for cops, though my confidence is somewhat waning. Still, not one to be discarded. Was there any reason to think lfischl looked coppish?
I do agree that if they're not PR hunting they're trying to set up the appearance of such, which may be an attempt to frame Chaqa (who else is touchable in that lineup) which is unfortunate if true
If (2) is a factor then that points to the existing deaths being inconsequential. Probably means jasnah is VT, damo is VT, bozo is non-Godfather mafia.
As for (3), maybe, but it's kind of odd that they'd shoot lfischl, because while a few people picked up that he might be a PR, Cop wasn't on anyone's radar to my knowledge.
I thought you were trying to draw the shot to a typically useless low poster, which if worked then great job maybe
#8393 Post by snowy801 » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:03 am
You're a better guy than me I'm absolutely doing this to people who piss me off in the futurePresident Eden wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:02 amthat's fucked up and I would neversnowy801 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:01 amHonestly I didn't even pick anything up and I checked him out after your hintsPresident Eden wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:58 pm
(1) is true, but I at least would value capping a claimed Cop or a confirmed Doc over a hypothetical Oracle to prevent a claim. I imagine virtually any mafia team would, too.
If (2) is a factor then that points to the existing deaths being inconsequential. Probably means jasnah is VT, damo is VT, bozo is non-Godfather mafia.
As for (3), maybe, but it's kind of odd that they'd shoot lfischl, because while a few people picked up that he might be a PR, Cop wasn't on anyone's radar to my knowledge.
I thought you were trying to draw the shot to a typically useless low poster, which if worked then great job maybe
#8394 Post by President Eden » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:04 am
#8395 Post by ghug » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:07 am
Sure. If I'm fakeclaiming a role with night actions, I want my actions to be a) plausible, b) unfalsifiable, and c) not give town any information when I'm eventually caught. You scanned a townclear, you oracled damo, who in my opinion was obviously not the cop, and you docsaved someone right as you were claiming, which is easy to not get wrong if you know who the NK target is. They're all plausible (though I haven't actually checked who the scan is yet), but it's also what a scum claim would look like.TheFlyingBoat wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:49 pmCare to expound, mon frere?
#8396 Post by ghug » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:10 am
No I'm not. This is textbook you and textbook Jamie. I could see it from Flum/Vecna too, but I townread them. PE and snowy are maybes.Chaqa wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:09 pmDay 1 VCA doesn't look great for ghug if my belief jasnah was scum is true.
I also think he's the type who would play up the misdirection strategy scum seems to be employing.
I'm not so sure kgray or rivera would go for it.
Maybe snowy, but I haven't seem his scumgame. His imposter game is usually pretty strong, though.
#8397 Post by TheFlyingBoat » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:10 am
I think you're vastly underestimating how many people incorrectly believed damo was cop in this thread, including some town clears.ghug wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:07 amSure. If I'm fakeclaiming a role with night actions, I want my actions to be a) plausible, b) unfalsifiable, and c) not give town any information when I'm eventually caught. You scanned a townclear, you oracled damo, who in my opinion was obviously not the cop, and you docsaved someone right as you were claiming, which is easy to not get wrong if you know who the NK target is. They're all plausible (though I haven't actually checked who the scan is yet), but it's also what a scum claim would look like.
That said, I see no scum motivation whatsoever for scum to claim when you did. Really I'm more just grumpy that your scan was unfortunate, your oracle was dumb, and you claimed (and probably used your actions) prematurely.
#8398 Post by BunnyGo » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:11 am
Ok. So I just sent to the GT my analysis of how the end game will look. I was too excited before. We have 5 miskills left before KiLo (if I mathed correctly). We should think hard about who we want with us then.
#8399 Post by ghug » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:11 am
I'm confused why you think the kills are weird if you're convinced Chaqa's scum. Can you elaborate?President Eden wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 pmWell clearly something... unorthodox/tinfoil/whatever is happening, whatever it might be. These kills are bizarre no matter what your theory for them is
#8400 Post by President Eden » Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:13 am
I don't think lfischl had any real shot at being the Cop based on his behavior, so if they were cophunting killing him is still weird. I thought he was Oracle based off a few early posts about how the role worked that showed some uncharacteristically high interest in it. But if he were Cop and Chaqa were mafia then I feel strongly that he'd have come out and said it. He was a straight shooter with his suspects all the way.ghug wrote: ↑Fri Oct 01, 2021 12:11 amI'm confused why you think the kills are weird if you're convinced Chaqa's scum. Can you elaborate?President Eden wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:19 pmWell clearly something... unorthodox/tinfoil/whatever is happening, whatever it might be. These kills are bizarre no matter what your theory for them is
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