M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

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President Eden
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7081 Post by President Eden » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:34 am

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:23 am
You know I was thinking

When bozo self voted with his rationale someone (I think Durga?) was like "what made you give up bozo" (actually it was definitely Durga that's where the engagement talk came from - is that real I still can't tell). Anyway, and then someone else was like "wow mafia must've really given him up"

Given that even in the face of insurmountable odds bozo was making that effort but he gave up about then, do we think a bus vote made him call off his efforts and shut up? I think it's a plausible theory worth considering. Could just mean he read the room and decided it was hopeless

Voters at the time:

Jamiet
lfischl
TheFlyingBoat
Vecna
bona
worcej
I think he just read the room and decided not to make the all-out effort needed. the “tactically optimal” play is to raise holy hell until town kills you and fight as hard as you can to make the claims battle as unsettled as possible. tapping out is just “incorrect,” in a strategic sense, no matter who’s voting

I imagine mafia was shook by the save and whatever plan they had to drag out the WIFOM battle got demolished by worcej. mafia is probably either voting bozo or waiting to see what we decide to do today between killing bozo or killing someone we might prefer to gravedig

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7082 Post by President Eden » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:36 am

##VOTE Tom Bombadil

daerb siht teg s’teL

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7083 Post by snowy801 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:37 am

It did strike me as being odd that after all the talk about "well now we know bozo's alignment let's vote someone out to give oracle a good target" so many people just defaulted to voting him anyway

Though I don't think anyone on that list is particularly scummy. Maybe Jamiet - I forget who but whoever said "Jamiet doesn't seem to give a shit about lurkers" struck me as true, though I'm not really sure that makes sense unless scum mass bussed bozo D2 which I kinda think might've happened but I don't know why they would

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7084 Post by snowy801 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:38 am

##vote Tom Bomb

It's a card we'll have to flip eventually anyway

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7085 Post by President Eden » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:38 am

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:37 am
It did strike me as being odd that after all the talk about "well now we know bozo's alignment let's vote someone out to give oracle a good target" so many people just defaulted to voting him anyway

Though I don't think anyone on that list is particularly scummy. Maybe Jamiet - I forget who but whoever said "Jamiet doesn't seem to give a shit about lurkers" struck me as true, though I'm not really sure that makes sense unless scum mass bussed bozo D2 which I kinda think might've happened but I don't know why they would
consider that they might have just not had a choice d2 because we put 2 mafia up at the end

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7086 Post by snowy801 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:41 am

President Eden wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:38 am
snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:37 am
It did strike me as being odd that after all the talk about "well now we know bozo's alignment let's vote someone out to give oracle a good target" so many people just defaulted to voting him anyway

Though I don't think anyone on that list is particularly scummy. Maybe Jamiet - I forget who but whoever said "Jamiet doesn't seem to give a shit about lurkers" struck me as true, though I'm not really sure that makes sense unless scum mass bussed bozo D2 which I kinda think might've happened but I don't know why they would
consider that they might have just not had a choice d2 because we put 2 mafia up at the end
The thought has occurred to me, but

I mean sure, maybe. I don't know if this group is that good

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7087 Post by President Eden » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:42 am

additionally / alternatively

the one thing I did take away from how Jamie buses in M63 is that once he decides that his town persona would have voted his teammate, he locks into the bus and doesn’t budge, even if the tactical situation might call for more fluidity

it makes sense that he would lock in on bozo and stay there for this reason

and then Tom and bozo were both on worcej… so… maybe aside from Jamie they didn’t actually bus?

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7088 Post by snowy801 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:42 am

Also I don't want to make it seem like anyone who ever checks the thread has to write something but Boat man totally just ghosted me

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7089 Post by Fluminator » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:44 am

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:37 am
It did strike me as being odd that after all the talk about "well now we know bozo's alignment let's vote someone out to give oracle a good target" so many people just defaulted to voting him anyway

Though I don't think anyone on that list is particularly scummy. Maybe Jamiet - I forget who but whoever said "Jamiet doesn't seem to give a shit about lurkers" struck me as true, though I'm not really sure that makes sense unless scum mass bussed bozo D2 which I kinda think might've happened but I don't know why they would
Sorry I was out all night. I do plan on pushing someone soon assuming rdr does something.

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7090 Post by President Eden » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:44 am

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:41 am
President Eden wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:38 am
snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:37 am
It did strike me as being odd that after all the talk about "well now we know bozo's alignment let's vote someone out to give oracle a good target" so many people just defaulted to voting him anyway

Though I don't think anyone on that list is particularly scummy. Maybe Jamiet - I forget who but whoever said "Jamiet doesn't seem to give a shit about lurkers" struck me as true, though I'm not really sure that makes sense unless scum mass bussed bozo D2 which I kinda think might've happened but I don't know why they would
consider that they might have just not had a choice d2 because we put 2 mafia up at the end
The thought has occurred to me, but

I mean sure, maybe. I don't know if this group is that good
if all the talkers are town, we don’t have to be especially good at actually catching mafia to have that happen. solely by avoiding the half of the game that’s obvtowning we can get to an appreciably high % of simply highrolling in the POE pool

in a funny way it would balance out the terrible luck of outing multiple PRs

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7091 Post by snowy801 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:44 am

President Eden wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:42 am
additionally / alternatively

the one thing I did take away from how Jamie buses in M63 is that once he decides that his town persona would have voted his teammate, he locks into the bus and doesn’t budge, even if the tactical situation might call for more fluidity

it makes sense that he would lock in on bozo and stay there for this reason

and then Tom and bozo were both on worcej… so… maybe aside from Jamie they didn’t actually bus?
The traditional method is to spread across multiple wagons
Or so I thought, until I looked back on the Maniac bus on D1 M69, but still

Also obviously bozo wouldn't be on his own wagon so I'm not entirely sure if what you're saying matches what you're implying

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7092 Post by snowy801 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:46 am

President Eden wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:44 am
snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:41 am
President Eden wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:38 am

consider that they might have just not had a choice d2 because we put 2 mafia up at the end
The thought has occurred to me, but

I mean sure, maybe. I don't know if this group is that good
if all the talkers are town, we don’t have to be especially good at actually catching mafia to have that happen. solely by avoiding the half of the game that’s obvtowning we can get to an appreciably high % of simply highrolling in the POE pool

in a funny way it would balance out the terrible luck of outing multiple PRs
It is a bad habit in this group where scum just defaults to lurking
Just by sorting the 4-5 lurkers you can find like half the scum team at least in there every game

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7093 Post by TheFlyingBoat » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:46 am

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:23 am
You know I was thinking

When bozo self voted with his rationale someone (I think Durga?) was like "what made you give up bozo" (actually it was definitely Durga that's where the engagement talk came from - is that real I still can't tell). Anyway, and then someone else was like "wow mafia must've really given him up"

Given that even in the face of insurmountable odds bozo was making that effort but he gave up about then, do we think a bus vote made him call off his efforts and shut up? I think it's a plausible theory worth considering. Could just mean he read the room and decided it was hopeless

Voters at the time:

Jamiet
lfischl
TheFlyingBoat
Vecna
bona
worcej
That's an interesting thought. I suppose it would be interesting to see who each person was voting for at EoD 2 and see if there is a discrepancy that could suggest the possibility for early coordination by mafia.

Jamiet - bozo
lfischl - bozo
TheFlyingBoat - bozo
Vecna - tom
bona - bozo - also lead wagon on bozo forever
worcej - tom - but also rival CC

With the obvious worcej exception (unless you think scum team is bona, worcej, and bozo, in which case jesus), everyone voted for bozo at the end of the day besides Vecna. I think Vecna has been a relatively popular townread, but maybe something is there? I doubt it, though.

Given the timeline of EoN2/D3 I doubt Mafia planned for the bus or at least for it to happen the way it did. There is no way they could have predicted that Bona would be saved by the doc, after all if we believe the Bona-Worcej claim we have to assume mafia chose Bona precisely because they assumed he'd be unprotected. A ton of those votes came right after Worcej's gloating about how he saved Bona.

Given that, do we really think over the course of N2 that mafia came up with a plan to bus Bozo at the beginning of the day or do you think it was more likely they'd try to waste time litigating the 50/50 and trying to maybe force a worcej wagon today if they could get away with it and accept a bozo one tomorrow. I certainly don't think they expected things to go the way they did.

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7094 Post by President Eden » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:47 am

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:44 am
President Eden wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:42 am
additionally / alternatively

the one thing I did take away from how Jamie buses in M63 is that once he decides that his town persona would have voted his teammate, he locks into the bus and doesn’t budge, even if the tactical situation might call for more fluidity

it makes sense that he would lock in on bozo and stay there for this reason

and then Tom and bozo were both on worcej… so… maybe aside from Jamie they didn’t actually bus?
The traditional method is to spread across multiple wagons
Or so I thought, until I looked back on the Maniac bus on D1 M69, but still

Also obviously bozo wouldn't be on his own wagon so I'm not entirely sure if what you're saying matches what you're implying
EOD was insanely chaotic, maybe they didn’t have time to reflect and coordinate spreading onto multiple wagons
and my “they” comment was really directed at the mystery 4th, although on further reflection, if that person isn’t exactly ghug or Sabi, they had to bus a teammate in a Tom/bozo world

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7095 Post by snowy801 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:47 am

Fluminator wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:44 am
snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:37 am
It did strike me as being odd that after all the talk about "well now we know bozo's alignment let's vote someone out to give oracle a good target" so many people just defaulted to voting him anyway

Though I don't think anyone on that list is particularly scummy. Maybe Jamiet - I forget who but whoever said "Jamiet doesn't seem to give a shit about lurkers" struck me as true, though I'm not really sure that makes sense unless scum mass bussed bozo D2 which I kinda think might've happened but I don't know why they would
Sorry I was out all night. I do plan on pushing someone soon assuming rdr does something.
I don't know if you were responding to the right post Flum, but if so you're going to have to explain the relevancy

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7096 Post by Fluminator » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:47 am

Yeah, even though my two biggest scumreads are kgary and jameit they're active enough I want to go lurker hunting today.

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7097 Post by snowy801 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:48 am

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:42 am
Also I don't want to make it seem like anyone who ever checks the thread has to write something but Boat man totally just ghosted me
Never mind on this Boat man good

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7098 Post by Fluminator » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:48 am

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:47 am
Fluminator wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:44 am
snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:37 am
It did strike me as being odd that after all the talk about "well now we know bozo's alignment let's vote someone out to give oracle a good target" so many people just defaulted to voting him anyway

Though I don't think anyone on that list is particularly scummy. Maybe Jamiet - I forget who but whoever said "Jamiet doesn't seem to give a shit about lurkers" struck me as true, though I'm not really sure that makes sense unless scum mass bussed bozo D2 which I kinda think might've happened but I don't know why they would
Sorry I was out all night. I do plan on pushing someone soon assuming rdr does something.
I don't know if you were responding to the right post Flum, but if so you're going to have to explain the relevancy
You were sad no one was pushing something outside of bozo

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7099 Post by TheFlyingBoat » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:49 am

snowy801 wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:24 am
TheFlyingBoat wrote:
Wed Sep 29, 2021 4:51 am
And then as for your scum read, I really just disagree with it and I don't want to rehash this in long form for the nth time unless you want me to, so I'll just say I really don't think I am that careful at all or avoided controversy. I've made plenty of jokes, led wagons on people like Flum (though it ultimately failed), was probably Jasnah's most ardent defender and sought out fights on the issue a BUNCH, and was really active in the D1 controversies. D2 I was less active on because of watching Texas football with friends and then playing VDL R3 but when I did engage I had plenty of longform posts and back and forth argumentation with people like Bona where had deep replies to each other. I also posted a read list early at the top the day which I defended periodically too.
Boat I have a question

Do you understand why people are saying you're being careful and avoiding controversy and simply disagreeing, or do you not understand it at all?
I simply don't understand it. I think I have courted controversy frequently when I was very convinced I was right and that others were wrong.

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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#7100 Post by President Eden » Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:49 am

probably the mafia went into the day hoping bozo could buy himself one or more turn cycles on his own power, but certainly with no plan of actually helping him do it directly. the top priority would be avoiding stupidly tying yourself to bozo

unsure how that fits into the analysis but i’d start there

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