M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

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Chaqa
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5821 Post by Chaqa » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:04 am

snowy801 wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:59 am
Doom427 wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:44 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:31 am
I'm taking a break from math hw to make my VCA post.
Pretty sure you're actually doing your math homework by doing Vote Count Analysis (thanks bot website, I know this acronym now!)
I had no idea peterbot had resources.

I'm thinking of maintaining the Spreadsheet, it seems updated to 55, which just means like 20 games to update. Doesn't seem so hard.

Do you think they'll mind?
I think we actually had a talk about me taking it over since I'm assuming primary Peterbot duties going forward.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5822 Post by snowy801 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:06 am

Well... are you going to do it?
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5823 Post by Chaqa » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:18 am

snowy801 wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:06 am
Well... are you going to do it?
Eventually man, I'm way busy
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5824 Post by President Eden » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:22 am

fmpov, we kill bozo, rivera, doom, snowy, tom, ghug, sabi (not in this order, though bozo is obviously right first) and we win. kgray and vecna look good despite not voting bozo. i think even rightfully adding me to the list that's still auto or very close

so i guess this is the time to ask these questions:
- did mafia bus bozo?
- is vecna mafia?
- is kgray mafia?
if the answer to all these is "no," congrats, we've won the game
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5825 Post by worcej » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:33 am

President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:26 am
worcej, why didn't you vote bozo?
Panic focus on timing the CC. I was focused on getting the CC in over moving to bozo and missed the deadline - my first post of N2 is that bozo vote.

I didn't want to claim once bozo did it and only pulled the trigger when my death looked likely to occur. The absolute last thing I wanted to do is let bozo slip the claim through uncontested.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5826 Post by worcej » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:34 am

President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:26 am
never mind you tied yourself and Tom. forget it :lol:
Indeed that what I was trying to do when the movement began.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5827 Post by Chaqa » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:34 am

President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:22 am
fmpov, we kill bozo, rivera, doom, snowy, tom, ghug, sabi (not in this order, though bozo is obviously right first) and we win. kgray and vecna look good despite not voting bozo. i think even rightfully adding me to the list that's still auto or very close

so i guess this is the time to ask these questions:
- did mafia bus bozo?
- is vecna mafia?
- is kgray mafia?
if the answer to all these is "no," congrats, we've won the game
I want to flip Bozo and then Snowy.

The ones on your list, I think Sabi is almost certainly town. Ghug I still have a pretty solid town read on but I have kinda lost focus on him in all the noise.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5828 Post by worcej » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:35 am

snowy801 wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:57 am
President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:46 am
you know, in theory, if that's right, this game is almost auto given Bunny's and worcej's claims :lol:

I think we need one successful docsave and we can literally kill all non-bozo voters except worcej and Bunny and win
I don't know how true this is but it's too bad we can't hammer night
There is a game occurring in the game right now between scum and myself.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5829 Post by worcej » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:36 am

Chaqa wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:34 am
President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:22 am
fmpov, we kill bozo, rivera, doom, snowy, tom, ghug, sabi (not in this order, though bozo is obviously right first) and we win. kgray and vecna look good despite not voting bozo. i think even rightfully adding me to the list that's still auto or very close

so i guess this is the time to ask these questions:
- did mafia bus bozo?
- is vecna mafia?
- is kgray mafia?
if the answer to all these is "no," congrats, we've won the game
I want to flip Bozo and then Snowy.

The ones on your list, I think Sabi is almost certainly town. Ghug I still have a pretty solid town read on but I have kinda lost focus on him in all the noise.
I will throw in ghug looks worse for EOD2 and is similar a focus of my 'save bozo' group
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5830 Post by Chaqa » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:37 am

worcej wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:36 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:34 am
President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:22 am
fmpov, we kill bozo, rivera, doom, snowy, tom, ghug, sabi (not in this order, though bozo is obviously right first) and we win. kgray and vecna look good despite not voting bozo. i think even rightfully adding me to the list that's still auto or very close

so i guess this is the time to ask these questions:
- did mafia bus bozo?
- is vecna mafia?
- is kgray mafia?
if the answer to all these is "no," congrats, we've won the game
I want to flip Bozo and then Snowy.

The ones on your list, I think Sabi is almost certainly town. Ghug I still have a pretty solid town read on but I have kinda lost focus on him in all the noise.
I will throw in ghug looks worse for EOD2 and is similar a focus of my 'save bozo' group
It's possible. I thought he was the Doctor for most of this game so I wasn't really paying much mind to him.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5831 Post by worcej » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:37 am

Chaqa wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:18 am
snowy801 wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:06 am
Well... are you going to do it?
Eventually man, I'm way busy
I say take it over if you want to snowy. Squiggles I believe is the current owner.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5832 Post by Chaqa » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:42 am

I have a few mafia improvement projects in mind but there's absolutely no way they get worked on until I move in November.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5833 Post by BesharamSabi » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:49 am

President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:22 am
fmpov, we kill bozo, rivera, doom, snowy, tom, ghug, sabi (not in this order, though bozo is obviously right first) and we win. kgray and vecna look good despite not voting bozo. i think even rightfully adding me to the list that's still auto or very close

so i guess this is the time to ask these questions:
- did mafia bus bozo?
- is vecna mafia?
- is kgray mafia?
if the answer to all these is "no," congrats, we've won the game
Doom and I have been town deemed by everyone. I voted for tfb ffs.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5834 Post by Bonatogether » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:55 am

A major wagon is any wagon with 3 or more votes at any time in the day.

The first major wagon was lfischl. This wagon peaks at 4 votes (jamie, doom, snowy, eden), and is relatively uninteresting. It's simply an attempt to remove lurkers from the pool. Perhaps something to note is that although Eden is the first person to raise the possibility of this wagon in day 2, he is the last to join and the first to leave (immediately after). This wagon had very little thread traction due to the conversation being primarily driven by the whole "was damo cop and is eden clear because of it?" business.

The second major wagon was Chaqa, which, incidentally, was started earlier than the lfischl wagon. This wagon also peaks at 4 votes (Eden, kgray, bona, chaqa). The primary force behind this wagon was to resolve the issues left over from Chaqa's claim and retraction. During the night there were many people voicing support for this (even hammers were mentioned, if I recall correctly), but support had dissipated once the initial anger had faded.

The next major wagon is Vecna's meme wagon, peaking at 6 votes (Eden, snowy, ghug, lfischl, boat man, and finally bozo). There is not much to say about reads from this wagon. However, perhaps some value may still be derived from this. 4 of the 6 votes (Eden, snowy, ghug, boat man) are explicit in their joke. 1 (lfischl) apparently was just going along with what ghug asked without being aware of the joke, which is a worrying sign if we ever find one to be scum. Lastly, bozo, that renowned joker, hopped on without any explanation. I do not know what to make of this, but it is certainly noteworthy as atypical of bozo under any alignment.

The fourth major wagon is on Eden. It briefly holds major wagon status, but is perhaps solely notable for its longevity and it being a wagon that is noob pushed (love to see it). The 3 voters who are on it during the wagon's brief time as major are myself, chaqa, and doom. There is no cohesive reasoning here. I vote Eden as a joke, Chaqa votes him on the basis that Eden hates meme votes in Among Us, and, most interestingly, Doom says that it is apparent to her that a lot of people scumread Eden without voting him, so she was going to be the one to take the leap and get the wagon going.

The first very interesting wagon is on snowy as the first example of the accordion-like quality of wagons today. The voters (flum, vecna, durga, kgray, worcej, chaqa, boat man) can be divided into several groups. The first is flum, vecna, durga, kgray, and boat man who are the ones who give concrete reasons for their votes. The first 3 specifically call out snowy for a lack of vigor. kgray gives similar reasoning elsewhere in the day repeatedly, and boat man gives a scumread for VCA once earlier in the day. Chaqa and worcej both give reasons without effort ('i like the people on the wagon' and 'i like the wagon') without spelling out anything more specific. I would like to call out that the people on this wagon had a tendency to vote for the second or third bozo wagon and then to switch to Tom (4 of the 7), which indicates a possible bloc (or at least substantially similar reads on the game). These four are Chaqa, kgray, Vecna, and worcej.

It is at this time that the first bozo wagon starts to form. This is another of the accordion wagons. This wagon peaks at 7 at T-5:56 after gaining major wagon status at T-22:02. The people who were ever on this wagon are myself, flum, snowy, durga, eden, jamie, worcej, and kgray. The broad consensus of people on this wagon is that it's their 2nd choice. The 1st choice for various people in the group varies, but can be found by anyone using the bot. It's not pertinent here. This wagon loses 3 voters (Durga->rdr, snowy->kgray, flum->kgray) by T-2:38 to place us into the period of flux that lasted until about 10 minutes before EoD.

This period of time is very hard to read. There were many people off-wagon, the bozo wagon accordioning, and the wagons that would become the final 3 hovered around 3 votes. There was no bloc voting here. Wagon sizes stayed the same even as their composition changed radically over the course of the 2 hours or so in the leadup to the final EoD. Alternative analysis will be very useful in this situation.

At the beginning (T-2:38), bozo had 4 votes, worcej had 3, kgray had 3, chaqa had 2, and snowy had 2. There was so much fluidity on these wagons, except for 1, that I don't know how to analyze them, or if there are any scum-indicative behavoirs here.

That one is bozo's 2nd wagon. This is a towering 9 vote stack at T-0:20, with a second peak (still the 2nd wagon, in my opinion) of 8 votes at T-0:07. The reasons for voting are not fundamentally different from the first wagon, so I won't talk about them here. The composition of the first peak is myself, worcej, kgray, jamie, lfischl, durga, eden, chaqa, vecna. Durga, Eden, and Chaqa slide off to drop it down to 6, but durga quickly rejoins, along with bunny, to put it back up to 8.

This fearsome, seemingly unkillable wagon prompts bozo's claim at T-0:05, when the other major wagons were worcej 6, Tom 3. The claim sent 3 votes to Tom (kgray, bunny, worcej) and 1 to worcej (durga). This made a 7-7-4 Tom-worcej-bozo set up at T-0:03.

After this point forward, almost every post is just a vote. Anarchy reigns. This is where scum will be found most easily.

Worcej claims at T-0:02, sending kgray, durga, flum, and boat man back to bozo (although kgray rapidly switches to tom). Snowy goes straight to Tom. Ghug is a guy and so votes worcej, and vecna switches from bozo in an apparent effort to save the doc claimants. Sabi splits the difference and goes back to vote boat man (a perennial minor wagon through the period of flux). It is interesting that kgray votes tom again in this period, although it is hard to say what she meant by it. It's a Rorschach test, like many things in this game.

---------------------

I claim that the votes for d2 during the period of flux (EoD2) show that town has not consolidated on any one general POE. Even as late as half an hour out, there was almost no wagon consolidation until it was clear that it was going to be bozo, worcej, and tom. This means that almost no info can be gained from the votes before the consolidation. A central objective of town should be to establish consensus reads and work from there, therefore.

I also claim that Tom was a scum-driven wagon on the basis of the fact that when push came to shove, a majority of the online players moving rushed to bozo. Only snowy, bunny, and kgray moved to Tom, and kgray only after initially moving to bozo. Therefore, Tom is most likely town.

Next, I claim that scum did not push worcej, although they preferred the wagon (but were not tied to it). This is a related claim to my previous one, in that no one online who was on worcej didn't move except for bozo. This singles out flum (voted him early over a weak scumread and very late, and doesn't mention him much); boat man (who had a weak scumread of him at the beginning of the day but then almost never mentions him), and sabi (who only has gut reads against him, despite having not read most of d2 and n1).

Lastly, I claim that the bozo wagon was town driven as well, although scum could easily have hidden on it. Bozo was almost never anyone's first choice for the dk, but was generally a consensus 2nd place who accordioned up and down throughout the whole day. There is no reason that scum could not also have made that argument, so I don't have any ideas about how many scum were on the bozo wagon.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5835 Post by snowy801 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:55 am

worcej wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:37 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:18 am
snowy801 wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:06 am
Well... are you going to do it?
Eventually man, I'm way busy
I say take it over if you want to snowy. Squiggles I believe is the current owner.
I would if nobody else was going to, but now that I know Chaqa's responsible for it I'll settle for heckling him over it like he owes me money
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5836 Post by Bonatogether » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:56 am

Doom427 wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:44 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:31 am
I'm taking a break from math hw to make my VCA post.
Pretty sure you're actually doing your math homework by doing Vote Count Analysis (thanks bot website, I know this acronym now!)
No, my math hw is discrete math proofs :lol:
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5837 Post by Bonatogether » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:56 am

President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:45 am
my expert opinion is that the entire bozo wagon is town

I know, I know, someone had to do the hard work
This is almost certainly untrue.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5838 Post by Bonatogether » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:58 am

President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:22 am
fmpov, we kill bozo, rivera, doom, snowy, tom, ghug, sabi (not in this order, though bozo is obviously right first) and we win. kgray and vecna look good despite not voting bozo. i think even rightfully adding me to the list that's still auto or very close

so i guess this is the time to ask these questions:
- did mafia bus bozo?
- is vecna mafia?
- is kgray mafia?
if the answer to all these is "no," congrats, we've won the game
1) Yes, in some capacity
2) Most likely not
3) Maybe?
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5839 Post by Bonatogether » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:59 am

BesharamSabi wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:49 am
President Eden wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:22 am
fmpov, we kill bozo, rivera, doom, snowy, tom, ghug, sabi (not in this order, though bozo is obviously right first) and we win. kgray and vecna look good despite not voting bozo. i think even rightfully adding me to the list that's still auto or very close

so i guess this is the time to ask these questions:
- did mafia bus bozo?
- is vecna mafia?
- is kgray mafia?
if the answer to all these is "no," congrats, we've won the game
Doom and I have been town deemed by everyone. I voted for tfb ffs.
This isn't a townclear by any stretch.
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Re: M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

#5840 Post by Bonatogether » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:59 am

I will go to bed.

Please do not bully me over some grammatical error I made in the wallpost, I'm tired.
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