M70 - THE BASKIN-ROBBINS CONSPIRACY [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

I remember jasnah from M64, but I was eliminated early in that game. She was also in M65, which I was not in. I have reviewed those games, and jasnah was certainly competent enough that it does not seem likely she would claim miller as scum D1 without being under any pressure. Thinking about it more, fake claiming miller as town is not without merit. If that is what is going on, it certainly has generated a lot of discussion, and there is not much down side to forcing the real miller to claim.

I find those who immediately jumped to DKing jasnah and BunnyGo suspicious, since it seems likely they would be setting up 2 town DKs.

[bozotheclown]

How come you're not looking for scum theater in this mess??

Scum theater is usually a case where 2 scum players interact in a way that they think will come across as town or at least as 2 players not on the same scum team. I am not sure how you think that could be applied to the CCs we have here.

I mean we sure as hell think they're 2 players not on the same scum team now

True, but there is also almost no possibility they are both scum, and therefore not participating in scum theater.

[snowy801]

I remember jasnah from M64, but I was eliminated early in that game. She was also in M65, which I was not in. I have reviewed those games, and jasnah was certainly competent enough that it does not seem likely she would claim miller as scum D1 without being under any pressure. Thinking about it more, fake claiming miller as town is not without merit. If that is what is going on, it certainly has generated a lot of discussion, and there is not much down side to forcing the real miller to claim.

I find those who immediately jumped to DKing jasnah and BunnyGo suspicious, since it seems likely they would be setting up 2 town DKs.

I would think that in a world where both claimants are town scum would seek to get ahead of the curve and town read them, don't you think?

Honestly I think the most suspicious are the ones who came late to the party on 50/50 both, as for whatever reason they saw a large number of people were predisposed to the plan but didn't want to be the one to push it.

[bozotheclown]

I think I'm supposed to like the worcej wagon based on the names on it... but I don't. Kind of makes me wonder what I got wrong.

I think I get where Boat is coming from although I disagree. And Durga is sheeping snowy, which is fair enough I guess. So I suppose this is directed to snowy and Chaqa, why worcej?

Chaqa's vote is particularly perplexing, as the only reason he doesn't want to kill both jasnah and Bunny is because the Oracle allows us to learn one of their identities... but that only works if we vote one off, yet Chaqa is on neither of them, and in fact on the wagon that happens to be the strongest contender besides either of them. Surely you should be voting jasnah here Chaq?

Why did you scare everyone off of the worcej wagon? worcej wants to DK jasnah and BunnyGo, even though he immediately believed BunnyGo's miller claim.

[Fluminator]

I remember jasnah from M64, but I was eliminated early in that game. She was also in M65, which I was not in. I have reviewed those games, and jasnah was certainly competent enough that it does not seem likely she would claim miller as scum D1 without being under any pressure. Thinking about it more, fake claiming miller as town is not without merit. If that is what is going on, it certainly has generated a lot of discussion, and there is not much down side to forcing the real miller to claim.

I find those who immediately jumped to DKing jasnah and BunnyGo suspicious, since it seems likely they would be setting up 2 town DKs.

I would think that in a world where both claimants are town scum would seek to get ahead of the curve and town read them, don't you think?

Honestly I think the most suspicious are the ones who came late to the party on 50/50 both, as for whatever reason they saw a large number of people were predisposed to the plan but didn't want to be the one to push it.

What? What curve is there to get ahead? It's a no flip game. If they are both town, there is no town cred gained by it.

[bozotheclown]

I remember jasnah from M64, but I was eliminated early in that game. She was also in M65, which I was not in. I have reviewed those games, and jasnah was certainly competent enough that it does not seem likely she would claim miller as scum D1 without being under any pressure. Thinking about it more, fake claiming miller as town is not without merit. If that is what is going on, it certainly has generated a lot of discussion, and there is not much down side to forcing the real miller to claim.

I find those who immediately jumped to DKing jasnah and BunnyGo suspicious, since it seems likely they would be setting up 2 town DKs.

I would think that in a world where both claimants are town scum would seek to get ahead of the curve and town read them, don't you think?

Honestly I think the most suspicious are the ones who came late to the party on 50/50 both, as for whatever reason they saw a large number of people were predisposed to the plan but didn't want to be the one to push it.

I don't know if town reading them would help the mafia considering the no reveal.

[snowy801]

I think you and everyone else vastly underestimate the amount of information we can accumulate in this game

Time will reveal all, though I'm personally trying to get ahead of that curve

[snowy801]

But I suppose under the premise that people are underestimating, they would not in fact town read the two claimants

[bozotheclown]

Lame!
##Vote Flyingboat

Although tbh, I do like your super fast changed mind on Bunnygo

##VOTE FlyingFluminator

[President Eden]

I think I'm supposed to like the worcej wagon based on the names on it... but I don't. Kind of makes me wonder what I got wrong.

I think I get where Boat is coming from although I disagree. And Durga is sheeping snowy, which is fair enough I guess. So I suppose this is directed to snowy and Chaqa, why worcej?

Chaqa's vote is particularly perplexing, as the only reason he doesn't want to kill both jasnah and Bunny is because the Oracle allows us to learn one of their identities... but that only works if we vote one off, yet Chaqa is on neither of them, and in fact on the wagon that happens to be the strongest contender besides either of them. Surely you should be voting jasnah here Chaq?

Why did you scare everyone off of the worcej wagon? worcej wants to DK jasnah and BunnyGo, even though he immediately believed BunnyGo's miller claim.

I didn’t figure that asking them why they voted would result in them all leaving!

I still think worcej is town in any case so I don’t mind the wagon dissipating. But it wasn’t my goal. I was just surprised he had 4 votes, and a quick (concededly lazy) scan of the votes left me with not much explanation for it, so I asked.

[bozotheclown]

The most sensible read I have on it is to accelerate the timeline on the miller claim. Most other lines of thought involve jasnah going to IQ 3000 land with a zany strat and a ton of flourish which just doesn't seem to be a good scum strat. Whether you think she's a good or bad town is up for debate, but I just can't imagine a world in which she is mafia and trying to win while playing like this.

(As an early aside, I am also not super convinced by arguments that Bunny HAS to be genuine. Placing breadcrumbs makes sense for both Genuine, and a planend non-Genuine Mafia)

I think it's just 101 that if two players claim a role, one of them is probably scum. Yeah, going 1 for 1 is bad for scum, sure. But it's also really bad for town to give us a good at killing Miller and a VT. Accelerating the timeline for a miller claim makes no sense. If someone wanted the Miller to claim, really really badly, they should just say the Miller should claim. If we were in night 1 or day 2, and Miller still hadn't, sure, fakeclaim to force it, maybe. But it was day 1.

There are other reasons to fake claim, such as generating reactions. With the miller, there is at least not much down side to forcing a CC.

[President Eden]

I have trouble faulting the people whose first instinct is to 50/50, even though mine was the opposite. If you forget the Oracle exists and you’re reasonably convinced one claimant is mafia, the 50/50 exchange is a safe enough play. And at least in the moment, I know my first reaction was that one claimant was mafia, because it’s the default heuristic, sort of—town doesn’t fakeclaim, so a fakeclaim is mafia. Not accurate generally, and maybe not accurate here, but understandable. It took a little digging and slowing down to get to the idea that both could be town. Not obvious in hindsight I think

[bozotheclown]

I have trouble faulting the people whose first instinct is to 50/50, even though mine was the opposite. If you forget the Oracle exists and you’re reasonably convinced one claimant is mafia, the 50/50 exchange is a safe enough play. And at least in the moment, I know my first reaction was that one claimant was mafia, because it’s the default heuristic, sort of—town doesn’t fakeclaim, so a fakeclaim is mafia. Not accurate generally, and maybe not accurate here, but understandable. It took a little digging and slowing down to get to the idea that both could be town. Not obvious in hindsight I think

OK, but the fact that it is a reasonable first instinct makes it a good opportunity for the mafia to take.

[Vecna]

I think the best play is still to kill Bunny because if he is town, he will drive the town into the ground, and if he's mafia, then killing him helps town

##vote bunnygo

lol, I thought u were just kidding, but did it just turn into openwolfing season?

What about this post makes you think jasnah is more scummy than the rest of her posts?

Is this really a serious question?

[Vecna]

##VOTE bunnygo

We haven’t really met. Do you think I’m making a deep scum play here? Do you just not like me? Do you think I’m not the Miller?

The weird part is, bunny really isnt acting like the miller either

[ghug]

##VOTE bunnygo

We haven’t really met. Do you think I’m making a deep scum play here? Do you just not like me? Do you think I’m not the Miller?

The weird part is, bunny really isnt acting like the miller either

Yeah, this is nagging at me, but he's now the only claimant.

If there is another Miller out there, you need to claim ASAP.

[ghug]

How'd you sleep, Veccy?

[Vecna]

Eden v Durga seems TvT to me.

How do people feel about Vecna's case on Jamiet? Seems a little flimsy, yeah?

What happened to my snowy? Did you lobotomize him and take his bodysuit?

[Vecna]

How'd you sleep, Veccy?

Got waken up way too early because my phone wasnt on silent mode and some joker with unid # started calling me

[BesharamSabi]

Anyway Sabi, snowy did a good job picking up where I left off:

It is not completely clear to me what your perspective is. Are you saying that a true miller ought to have taken steps to ascertain whether their direct counterclaim is being serious about their claim, and that Bunny failed to do so is suspicious? In the sense that the true miller ought to have been more cautious and reluctant to immediately reveal their role?

Yes (I have been drinking but this makes sense to me).

There's no right or wrong answer here, this is a thought exercise to help you develop your perspective here for the benefit of those (including myself, but mostly other people) who would like to understand it better.

Suppose you were the Miller, not BG. When jasnah claimed, how do you imagine you might have approached jasnah's claim?

I have woken up too early so here we go :

I would have asked jasnah questions. While waiting for a response I would check jasnah game history of she has ever made similar claims before. I would ask more pressing questions before I decided to burn at the stake.