Mini Mafia 1018 - Race with the Devil [hidden]

[rdrivera2005]

Oh God, I think I agree with Chaqa.

Why I am not surprised....

I'm swinging back towards thinking you're town, so you really need to come out of your ghug tunnel. When have I ever advocated bad process as scum?

Ok, so please explain me why no-kill today is better then tomorrow?

[Chaqa]

Rivera, you’re just wrong about when to vote no kill.

If you want to vote someone today, vote me.

Do not vote ghug. He could be the cop, and if we wagon him that’s bad

I’m hardclaimed VT, if you want to flip someone, it should be me, but the optimal play is to no kill.

I can't follow your logic. Why today is better then tomorrow? And why didn't you advocate for a no-kill yesterday then?

Well, I hadn't had the idea yesterday. Can't time travel it back into my head lol

As for why it's better today:

8 players left. mafia knows 3 of them (mafia + Chaqa) are not cop.

If we wagon ANYONE but me today, there is a chance it's the cop, and they have to claim to save themselves. Then mafia kills them, and we have no more scans.

If we vote someone out that turns out to be a non-Cop town, then the pool for cop is own to 4, and mafia can RB one (prob celaph) and kill another, effectively giving them 50% chance to disrupt the cop.

If we no kill today, then they can disrupt 2 people, which is only 2/5, slightly better odds, and then tomorrow cop can have 2-3 scans to give us, we can vote someone out.

Vote wise, we always want more townies than mafia involved, so a 3-2 day is the worst outcome possible for a make-or-break vote

Voting now gives us a 6-2 day, then either a 4-2 or 3-2 day.

Voting later gives us a 5-2 day then a 3-2 day, with the added benefit of a mich higher probability of a mafia getting guilty scanned.

If you want a middle ground, voting me out is safe, since mafia will never nightkill me and I will always be suspected until the Godfather is dead and the cop has scanned me, which may never happen.

[Chaqa]

Honestly, voting me out maybe is the better bet, because of all the suspicion on me. I feel like I lose any final three or final five situation anyway, so it's best to take the hit while we can afford it.

[ghug]

Why I am not surprised....

I'm swinging back towards thinking you're town, so you really need to come out of your ghug tunnel. When have I ever advocated bad process as scum?

Ok, so please explain me why no-kill today is better then tomorrow?

a) not considering the cop, a no kill isn't bad for us, and we have exactly one to use, so it follows that it doesn't matter when we do it
b) considering the cop, killing today gives scum a 1/8 shot of hitting the cop, and a 1/5 or 1/6 (depending on whether we kill scum or town tonight) shot at hitting the cop at night, before a presumed claim tomorrow. If we don't kill today, they just have that 1/6 (or I suppose all of the denominators decrease by one because of Chaqa's VT claim) before a presumed claim tomorrow. If the cop is waiting to claim until the next day, the logic still holds; we have a better chance of the cop surviving overall if we wait to kill for longer.
c) selfishly, I'm at a bit of a loss on reading the game right now, so holding off on killing until we have more information, in the form of another death and/or a cop claim seems prudent. It appears that the only people who don't feel that way are confident in an incorrect scumread on me, so I'm comfortable painting in broad strokes and saying everyone is at a loss right now, even if they don't know it.

[rdrivera2005]

Ok, after Ghug and Chaqa's reasoning I can see a reason to no- kill considering the chance Cop have another scan before claiming. Considering Cop isn't Celaph or that he isn't NKed.

But we have the downside of stalling the game for a whole day/night abd having one town less on the voting.

Not sure if the upside is worth the downside.

[ghug]

##VOTE no-kill

[Bonatogether]

Bona and Maniac should probably be switched… but I just don’t think Bona is scum.

then put me at the top? this looks like a way to softpush me while townreading me

[Bonatogether]

Oh, I forgot there was a godfather.

ok this explains it lol

Ghug town

i didnt even read the setup and i know there's a godfather, ghug saying that means jack shit

[Bonatogether]

I'm basically offering an ultimatum to you all.

You can vote no kill, and make the right play for protecting the cop, or you can flip me, and then at least the Cop is also not being wagoned and revealed today, and likely it's the same as voting no kill, except you've lost a VT.

if you're going to do this flip me instead cause no one townreads me at this point

[ghug]

I'm basically offering an ultimatum to you all.

You can vote no kill, and make the right play for protecting the cop, or you can flip me, and then at least the Cop is also not being wagoned and revealed today, and likely it's the same as voting no kill, except you've lost a VT.

if you're going to do this flip me instead cause no one townreads me at this point

If everyone offers to die to protect the cop, we out the cop.

[Bonatogether]

I'm going to make a big reads post

[Bonatogether]

I'm basically offering an ultimatum to you all.

You can vote no kill, and make the right play for protecting the cop, or you can flip me, and then at least the Cop is also not being wagoned and revealed today, and likely it's the same as voting no kill, except you've lost a VT.

if you're going to do this flip me instead cause no one townreads me at this point

If everyone offers to die to protect the cop, we out the cop.

what?

[Chaqa]

if you're going to do this flip me instead cause no one townreads me at this point

If everyone offers to die to protect the cop, we out the cop.

what?

The entire point of this is to minimize scum's odds of finding the cop.

By offering yourself up, you've effectively said you aren't the cop.

AKA you've just reduced their PoE from 5 players to 4 players.

AKA you fucked up.

[Chaqa]

So now they have the 50% chance of finding the cop we didn't want them to have anyway.

[Maniac]

Chaqa’s idea makes sense.

##vote no kill

[ghug]

If everyone offers to die to protect the cop, we out the cop.

what?

The entire point of this is to minimize scum's odds of finding the cop.

By offering yourself up, you've effectively said you aren't the cop.

AKA you've just reduced their PoE from 5 players to 4 players.

AKA you fucked up.

I mean really you did too

[Chaqa]

what?

The entire point of this is to minimize scum's odds of finding the cop.

By offering yourself up, you've effectively said you aren't the cop.

AKA you've just reduced their PoE from 5 players to 4 players.

AKA you fucked up.

I mean really you did too

uhh no? Jamie hardclaimed VT before I subbed in

[ghug]

The entire point of this is to minimize scum's odds of finding the cop.

By offering yourself up, you've effectively said you aren't the cop.

AKA you've just reduced their PoE from 5 players to 4 players.

AKA you fucked up.

I mean really you did too

uhh no? Jamie hardclaimed VT before I subbed in

Oh right.

Have I mentioned how much I hate the concept of hardclaims?

[Chaqa]

I mean really you did too

uhh no? Jamie hardclaimed VT before I subbed in

Oh right.

Have I mentioned how much I hate the concept of hardclaims?

yeah...

I kinda just want to flip Bona now lol

[ghug]

uhh no? Jamie hardclaimed VT before I subbed in

Oh right.

Have I mentioned how much I hate the concept of hardclaims?

yeah...

I kinda just want to flip Bona now lol

Eh, I'm not.

I think I'm at
Maniac
Bob
Bona
rd
Chaqa
Kak
celaph
ghug