M69: Trapped in the Chipotle R&D Lab [HIDDEN]

[snowy801]

Okay a question that ought to have been resolved long ago:

Who actually got the item from bonatogether?

If nobody claims, safe to assume 3P on that wagon.

Its sad we didnt actually do this at the start of N1. Right now we still have a 25% chance the knowledge died with Celaph/Ghug and we'd need to trust scum on revealing the info to us (if they even know).

I did not get anything.

The implication that the knowledge died with celaph/ghug is in itself useful, as it likely says there was either no 3P in there or it wasn't a 3P item.

I'm drawing up a chart now.

[rdrivera2005]

@Vecna - Show me a way I can be 3P with Guac? I am not clear of being scum, but it's almost impossible for me to be 3P (unless you think I am a absolutely dumb 3P player who shot Ghug to take Guac).

[damo666]

How strong could the 3P now be?

They could’ve started with an item they need +1 (1) , they could’ve been on Bona kill and collected his item if it was on the list +1 (2) (Has anyone claimed receiving Bona’s item, or do they want to now?) Could they have stolen from Celaph before scum NK him? Yes but unlikely +0 (2), They could have been on Kakarroto wagon +1 (3) They could’ve stole an item N2 but nothing reported and no one died +0 (3) they could’ve shot Ghug but even if he had a 3P item it would mean 3P had the gun so still +0 (3), they allegedly stole an item n3 (Cheese) +1 (4). If people are being truthful and not hiding items being stolen from them, then pretty sure 3P doesn’t have chicken or any rice. But they could have beans, napkins (likely because of message), cheese (almost certainly), Pico de Gallo.

Assuming Tom gave any items he had away to scum buddies, 3P shouldn’t gain from Tom’s kill today – but it is still prudent to for us to pick 3 or 4 players to kill Tom and everyone else vote and unvote.+0 (4)

What then happens if 3P steals from a player holding 2 of their required item? +2 (6)

We could lose to the 3P tonight in the worst-case scenario.

I suppose that 3P might have been gifted an item(s) so we could be in very precarious position.

Likelihood of being 3P

Snowy – almost certainly not 3P (roleblocked when cheese was stolen)
Macca – almost certainly not 3P (gave a 3P item away)
Brainbomb – very unlikely 3P (had and item stolen, didn’t visit anyone N3, claims started with non 3P starting item, was on Bona kill)

Vecna – possible (started with a 3P starting item, was on both DKs)
Jamie – possible (On Kak DK, started with a 3P starting item)
Damo – very unlikely (Claims uncontested Doc – either town or mafia)
Rdr – very unlikely (Claims uncontested Doc – either town or mafia)
Bob – possible – hasn’t yet claimed his starting item.
Tom – very unlikely 3P – very likely mafia
Foodcoats possible – no claims
Bozo – possible – no claims
Hamilton Brian – possible (started with a 3P starting item, would their tracker role help them acquire items?)
Maniac – far too handsome to steal items, (but yes I’m aware I’m still a possible candidate, started with a 3P starting item, was last on Bona d1 wagon.)

TL;DR – we really shouldn’t all vote Tom, he needs to die, but to be ultra safe we can’t allow any items he holds to fall into 3P hands.

Possible 3P – me, HB, Bozo, Food, Bob, Jamie, Vecna

##unvote

Some comments:
-The claiming of uncontested roles shouldnt factor into this as strongly as you are doing atm, since all of them happened after 2 DK's, 1 NK and a yet unclaimed Ghug shot.
-Damo did the very convincing -not knowing the rules for 3P item acquisition after getting the item from the D2 DK, which is a much stronger reason I think to not suspect him as 3P
-I have a feeling that if bob was 3P the game would be pretty much over now. That and his play feel like good enough reasons to rule him out.
-There are some other people that have given 3P items away that this list is missing.

Regardless, your conclusion about how to proceed today is correct

Some self-votes for a bunch of people are in order. I think todays vote should just be done by snowy/brain/damo/bob

##vote Vecna

With only 4 people we'd need to wait the full 48 hours. I prefer 24hr hammer.

[Jamiet99uk]

I keep thinking people are talking about Guak

[BobMcBob]

also i can confirm that i did not receive bonas item

[damo666]

vecna if we want to hammer the day to avoid losing a ton of momentum to a dead day i think youre a pretty good candidate for one of the voters on it

agreed

[damo666]

also i can confirm that i did not receive bonas item

Nor did I

[damo666]

Okay a question that ought to have been resolved long ago:

Who actually got the item from bonatogether?

If nobody claims, safe to assume 3P on that wagon.

Its sad we didnt actually do this at the start of N1. Right now we still have a 25% chance the knowledge died with Celaph/Ghug and we'd need to trust scum on revealing the info to us (if they even know).

I did not get anything.

The implication that the knowledge died with celaph/ghug is in itself useful, as it likely says there was either no 3P in there or it wasn't a 3P item.

I'm drawing up a chart now.

I like charts.

[snowy801]

Code: Select all

Item	        3P Item?	Potential Alignment	Actual Alignment	Possible Starters	Quick Reason
Commute (2)	Y	        Town	                Town	                bonatogether	        Celaph would be alive
Replenisher (2)	N	        Town/Mafia	        Town	                Celaph	                Bob got replenished
Watcher (2)	Y	        Town/Mafia	        Mafia	                Tom/Kaka        	Why hasn't watcher claimed?
Day Kill (1)	N	        Town/3P	                3P	                foodcoats/bozo	        3P stole a required item D2
Mailman	        Y	        Town/Mafia/3P	        Town	                ghug	                "Ghug is mafia"
Day Hammer (1)	N	        Town/Mafia/3P	        Town	                foodcoats/bozo	        Because it hammered Kaka
Bulletproof (2)	N	        Town/Mafia/3P	        Mafia	                Tom/Kaka	        PoE

Thoughts?

[snowy801]

With only 4 people we'd need to wait the full 48 hours. I prefer 24hr hammer.

Same. I'm really worried about momentum / interest loss. We've gone near two full days without any (particularly) new info.

I mean sure I got cleared, but who even was going to vote me out? Brainbomb not being 3P is good too, but you know what I'm saying.

[brainbomb]

##End

[Vecna]

i couldve sworn Damo was softing the watcher thing with his implications about macca n all

[snowy801]

i couldve sworn Damo was softing the watcher thing with his implications about macca n all

I mean I thought that too, but we do know his starting item is White Rice, so...

I suppose he'll reveal it when he sees fit.

[Vecna]

I agree with the no momentum loss thing, but lets please go 24h then so we do not risk people coming back and having an excuse not to pass their items along n all.

[snowy801]

I agree with the no momentum loss thing, but lets please go 24h then so we do not risk people coming back and having an excuse not to pass their items along n all.

This is the plan. 24 H hammer (in about 8 hours)

[snowy801]

##unend

I am almost certain to be available at that time, so I will final hammer I believe.

Everyone else please feel free to hammer according to the list, unless you also anticipate being on then.

[snowy801]

If watcher is town (and gave it to damo) then I imagine that ghug/bona was watcher, and the other was commute. That would mean possibly both items are in 3P's hands, alongside Cheese.

3/6. Kinda spook.

That would also mean that Napkins are in the hands of scum, which means... although Kaka's item went to damo, so no worries there.

[snowy801]

Wait hang on that makes 0 sense. Please ignore, as my brain defies friction.

I'm in a meeting I'll think this through later.

[Vecna]

I still think the most likely scenario is that one faction had possession of the napkin and the gun, and orchestrated that event.

Fully possible also that they just wanted cover for shooting the gun later on.

Huh, maybe theyve actually dumped the napkins on Tom B today to make Bozo look good?

[Vecna]

that second sentence didnt come out too well.

Wanted to shoot the gun early, and have a plausible story later on how it could be a town shot.