Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

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Hamilton Brian
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#301 Post by Hamilton Brian » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:18 pm

ghug wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:12 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:06 pm
Alright, a few more pages since I left the optometrist.

The peculiarity is they added dilation drops so I can barely make out shit right now. Just going on what I think I read.

I was really on the side of voting ghug, per chaqa. I think it favours us. The significnat downside is that we get no voting pattern info for later on.

Ghug gets saved today, what makes him handy as a nightkill? Is he? I don't know. Does it matter? As long as he is around helping us solve, then good. But a jester that wants to win wants to get daykilled, so wouldn't it be better for the jester to advocate that? Mafia will want to take that glory away from ghug (if jester).

Here's where I sit right now as I am doing quick reading. Lean town on chaqa, ghug, snowy. Need to see interactions from others before committing a vote.
I'm confused by this post. Am I town or jester? Do you want to kill me or no?
I seem to be confusing you a lot.

I think you're jester. No one else has claimed it. So you should want to be daykilled, but not nightkilled. Does that answer your question?
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#302 Post by foodcoats » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:19 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:06 pm
Alright, a few more pages since I left the optometrist.

The peculiarity is they added dilation drops so I can barely make out shit right now. Just going on what I think I read.

I was really on the side of voting ghug, per chaqa. I think it favours us. The significnat downside is that we get no voting pattern info for later on.

Ghug gets saved today, what makes him handy as a nightkill? Is he? I don't know. Does it matter? As long as he is around helping us solve, then good. But a jester that wants to win wants to get daykilled, so wouldn't it be better for the jester to advocate that? Mafia will want to take that glory away from ghug (if jester).

Here's where I sit right now as I am doing quick reading. Lean town on chaqa, ghug, snowy. Need to see interactions from others before committing a vote.
What made you change your mind that ghug was Jester to ghug is town?
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#303 Post by ghug » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:20 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:18 pm
ghug wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:12 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:06 pm
Alright, a few more pages since I left the optometrist.

The peculiarity is they added dilation drops so I can barely make out shit right now. Just going on what I think I read.

I was really on the side of voting ghug, per chaqa. I think it favours us. The significnat downside is that we get no voting pattern info for later on.

Ghug gets saved today, what makes him handy as a nightkill? Is he? I don't know. Does it matter? As long as he is around helping us solve, then good. But a jester that wants to win wants to get daykilled, so wouldn't it be better for the jester to advocate that? Mafia will want to take that glory away from ghug (if jester).

Here's where I sit right now as I am doing quick reading. Lean town on chaqa, ghug, snowy. Need to see interactions from others before committing a vote.
I'm confused by this post. Am I town or jester? Do you want to kill me or no?
I seem to be confusing you a lot.

I think you're jester. No one else has claimed it. So you should want to be daykilled, but not nightkilled. Does that answer your question?
Then why did you say that I'm likely town? Do you see any reason the jester wouldn't claim?
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#304 Post by foodcoats » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:20 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:18 pm
ghug wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:12 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:06 pm
Alright, a few more pages since I left the optometrist.

The peculiarity is they added dilation drops so I can barely make out shit right now. Just going on what I think I read.

I was really on the side of voting ghug, per chaqa. I think it favours us. The significnat downside is that we get no voting pattern info for later on.

Ghug gets saved today, what makes him handy as a nightkill? Is he? I don't know. Does it matter? As long as he is around helping us solve, then good. But a jester that wants to win wants to get daykilled, so wouldn't it be better for the jester to advocate that? Mafia will want to take that glory away from ghug (if jester).

Here's where I sit right now as I am doing quick reading. Lean town on chaqa, ghug, snowy. Need to see interactions from others before committing a vote.
I'm confused by this post. Am I town or jester? Do you want to kill me or no?
I seem to be confusing you a lot.

I think you're jester. No one else has claimed it. So you should want to be daykilled, but not nightkilled. Does that answer your question?
Double-posting here, but aren't you saying you townlean ghug? How can ghug be town and Jester?
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#305 Post by foodcoats » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:21 pm

Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:10 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:21 am
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 12:06 am
##Vote Johnny Big Horse

WHERE IS YOUR FIRE?
Johnny, what do you make of all these expectations you’ve been… saddled… with?
That is pretty fynny foodcoats!
It's a pretty good bit... and bridle.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#306 Post by Hamilton Brian » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:22 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:31 pm

Yes, but the mafia could hit the jester, and we do not know who the jester is anyway. If the jester were to claim, it might be worth DKing him, because letting the game go to 4-3-1 would give the jester the opportunity to work out a deal with the mafia.
So I think you are explicitly telling me that you are not a fan of killing ghug if ghug is the jester. Let the mafia nightkill ghug instead?

I would approach not killing jester/ghug to avoid the runaway wagon that won't really offer us any data.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#307 Post by foodcoats » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:23 pm

@Vecna

Can you detail your vote for dargorygel? Do you believe he is scum? If so, for what reasons?
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#308 Post by foodcoats » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:23 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:14 am
Hello fine town people and some evil bastards.

Tried to catch up last night but fall asleep at page 4 ( one of the side effects of waking up at 06:30 to drive daughter to school). Will catch up now.
I don't think rdr ever caught up. We should help him.

##VOTE rdrivera
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#309 Post by Hamilton Brian » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:24 pm

I see where the confusion is coming into play, and I am really sorry I hadn't explained myself cleaer. I was lumping ghug in with town; for all intents and purposes I feel like ghug is pro-town as the jester. I'll go back to the writeup to clarify.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#310 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:27 pm

Vecna wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:30 am
snowy801 wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:54 pm
foodcoats wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:52 pm


Well, of course: I don’t want to vote for the Jester. And I brought up this conversation because you suggested darg might be the third party. But perhaps that was… in… jest?
Generally I don't worry overmuch about accidentally jestering day 1. Good on them if they did, but I think pure min/max it's better to try to properly vote out scum than carefully avoid type II errors, and ending up voting out town.
Killing jester day1 might actually be not such a terrible side effect. Eliminate that pesky wifom "oh he's not actually scum, he just wanna die" train of logic thats undoubtedly to follow. And give the pr's gamesolve time.
Vecna's reaction to the Jester stuff is town-aligned.

Vecna town.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#311 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:28 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:59 pm
Vecna wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:30 am
snowy801 wrote:
Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:54 pm


Generally I don't worry overmuch about accidentally jestering day 1. Good on them if they did, but I think pure min/max it's better to try to properly vote out scum than carefully avoid type II errors, and ending up voting out town.
Killing jester day1 might actually be not such a terrible side effect. Eliminate that pesky wifom "oh he's not actually scum, he just wanna die" train of logic thats undoubtedly to follow. And give the pr's gamesolve time.
I agree we should not worry about the jester. Although, it would be better for town if the mafia wasted a NK on him.
Mechanical analysis king Bozo would recognize there's no world where jester gets night-killed. The only way Jester loses is by being night killed, basically, and any competent Jester would out themselves and make a deal with mafia or town.

Bozo gets scum points for wanting the jester alive later
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#312 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:29 pm

snowy801 wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:10 pm
Has it occurred to you logical folk that ghug is not guaranteed or even likely to be scum?

I suggest we table this discussion until ghug has an opportunity to further comment on this matter.

I am willing to agree on principle that a guaranteed jester vote today is the best move, if they are willing to hard claim. I am not so willing to agree that guesswork to hit only jester is in any way superior to normal scum hunting.
Snowy gets town points.

It's in the Jester's best interest to take the Day 1 hit.

It means town eliminates a potential enemy late game while not killing a towny on the lowest information day.

It's pure upside.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#313 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:29 pm

BobMcBob wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:12 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:06 pm
BobMcBob wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:02 pm
i want to propose a revolutionary new idea
what if we tried to catch scum today?
instead of trying specifically to catch the jester, we try to catch scum, and if we happen to hit the jester thats just a bonus...ish...kinda
Bob scum.

Any town would see the math of this situation and agree that getting the Jester out of the way is purely positive to town.
chaqa scum

any town would realise that getting rid of scum is beneficial to our wincon regardless of any other factors and thus should be our focus
especially since jester cant actually claim
the clock is actually the same regardless of when we kill the jester and i think that should be obvious
Bob is trying to dance around the point that the Jester is not town-aligned. The longer the game goes on, the more the Jester's interests shift from town to scum. Scum points.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#314 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:30 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:23 pm
Chaqa is presumably not the Jester.

From a tpov chance of Chaqa being scum is 3/10 whereas chance of any non-Chaqa being scum is 3/11.

Perhaps we should therefore vote Chaqa.

Is this sound?
This seems like a pretty standard faire damo post. NAI.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#315 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:31 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:31 pm
Hamilton Brian wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:02 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:59 pm


I agree we should not worry about the jester. Although, it would be better for town if the mafia wasted a NK on him.
They’re more likely to hit one of us though, right? I think I’d like going into N1 as 8-3 as opposed to 7-3-1?
Yes, but the mafia could hit the jester, and we do not know who the jester is anyway. If the jester were to claim, it might be worth DKing him, because letting the game go to 4-3-1 would give the jester the opportunity to work out a deal with the mafia.
Oh good, Bozo got there.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#316 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:32 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:39 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:25 am
I believe there to be at least 2 scum in the group:

Johnny
Hamilton
Vecna
Dargo

I will explain why later in the day phase.
Is it later yet?
Indeed it is. Working my way there.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#317 Post by foodcoats » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:33 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:28 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:59 pm
Vecna wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 10:30 am


Killing jester day1 might actually be not such a terrible side effect. Eliminate that pesky wifom "oh he's not actually scum, he just wanna die" train of logic thats undoubtedly to follow. And give the pr's gamesolve time.
I agree we should not worry about the jester. Although, it would be better for town if the mafia wasted a NK on him.
Mechanical analysis king Bozo would recognize there's no world where jester gets night-killed. The only way Jester loses is by being night killed, basically, and any competent Jester would out themselves and make a deal with mafia or town.

Bozo gets scum points for wanting the jester alive later
How is there "no world where jester gets night-killed?" If the Jester outs themselves, then yes. But the best way for the Jester to win is not to claim.

This is quite a stretch to shade bozo... but since the scum don't know who the Jester is, either, I think Chaqa is speaking from a town perspective. So this post gives me a townlean on Chaqa.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#318 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:34 pm

ghug wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:43 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:06 pm
I think the math checks out that killing the Jester day 1 is good. We ideally want to hit mafia, but the Jester makes endgame math and motivations fuzzy.

##Vote ghug

for now on the basis he is the Jester
I mean I am the jester but that's why you shouldn't kill me. Hoping the jester dies is fine. Not concerning ourselves with the possibility scummy people are trying to be scummy is fine. Intentionally wasting a miskill is bad.
jester!ghug would never play againat his wincon like this when a win is literally within his laps if he claims.

I will say, the jester is NOT a miskill, and that difference should be apparent to town!ghug, so I'm going to lock ghug in as scum in my PoE.
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#319 Post by Chaqa » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:35 pm

ghug wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 4:49 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 3:55 pm
Sorry, I ran through the math on my own and didn't explain it in the thread, but I'll go back over it now.

Game starts at 8-3-1 spread on day 1.
Mafia has no incentive to nightkill the jester.

We have two lines:
1. Leave the jester alive
2. Kill the jester today

If we follow Line 1, assuming miskills and no doc saves:
On day 2, we are down to 6-3-1.
On day 3, we are down to 4-3-1.

At this point, the jester WANTS to get killed, and the mafia don't care if the Jester does, so it's essentially 4-4 since mafia and jester's interests are aligned, although they can't communicate it as such. Essentially, by keeping the Jester alive, Day 3 is a really good chance of town autoloss.

This does assume Jester stays alive somehow and can figure out a way to make this happen, but I think that's reasonably possible.

Line 2:
If we kill the Jester today, then:
On day 2, we are down to 7-3
On day 3, we are down to 5-3

Day 3 is now not nearly autoloss. We could either vote to try to make it 4-2 on day 4, or we could vote no kill to be at 4-3 on day 4.

Essentially, killing the Jester now is great for town.

The Jester should just claim and let us flip them, they can win and we can focus on mafia.
You're ignoring that the first scenario gives town two chances to kill scum before getting to day 3, whereas the second scenario only gives one, so they amount to roughly the same thing.
Except the first scenario allows Jester to fuck things up for town later on, which you should be aware of. +10 scum points
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Re: Mini-Mafia Game - Interesting Facts Edition GAME THREAD [Hidden]

#320 Post by foodcoats » Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:37 pm

foodcoats wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 6:23 pm
rdrivera2005 wrote:
Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:14 am
Hello fine town people and some evil bastards.

Tried to catch up last night but fall asleep at page 4 ( one of the side effects of waking up at 06:30 to drive daughter to school). Will catch up now.
I don't think rdr ever caught up. We should help him.

##VOTE rdrivera
With respect to my vote on rdr, what does everyone of policy killing him or someone else for lurking?

We know that in the last three games, at least one scum lurked ('68 emc, '67 Vecna [and by lurked I mean did the parrot thing], '66 Macca). I don't think it would be crazy to assume that one of rdr, JBH, or darg is scum.
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