M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[rdrivera2005]

I think Chaqa is scum, one of ghug/rdr is scum (leaning ghug atm), and I'm not sure who the third is. ##vote Chaqa

I don't think that there is an open and shut case on him, but I have a hard time building a scumteam assuming town Chaqa. Removing Damo, JBH, Chaqa, and myself rdr, ghug, worcej, and emc are left. I liked damo's of worcej/emc likely not being scum together and while I can see that an rdr, ghug, worcej/emc team is possible, it wouldn't be my top bet. For one, I think ghug would have used his comment about rdr bussing to move to Chaqa's wagon.

Given this post I can't see ghug killing celaph unless he was JBH's partner.

Why not? Celaph was scumreading Ghug. The last part was just to say he can't see scum Ghug with town Chaqa, but he was scumreading both.

[damo666]

I think Chaqa is scum, one of ghug/rdr is scum (leaning ghug atm), and I'm not sure who the third is. ##vote Chaqa

I don't think that there is an open and shut case on him, but I have a hard time building a scumteam assuming town Chaqa. Removing Damo, JBH, Chaqa, and myself rdr, ghug, worcej, and emc are left. I liked damo's of worcej/emc likely not being scum together and while I can see that an rdr, ghug, worcej/emc team is possible, it wouldn't be my top bet. For one, I think ghug would have used his comment about rdr bussing to move to Chaqa's wagon.

Given this post I can't see ghug killing celaph unless he was JBH's partner.

Why not? Celaph was scumreading Ghug. The last part was just to say he can't see scum Ghug with town Chaqa, but he was scumreading both.

Precisely because celaph was scumreading ghug.

[rdrivera2005]

Given this post I can't see ghug killing celaph unless he was JBH's partner.

Why not? Celaph was scumreading Ghug. The last part was just to say he can't see scum Ghug with town Chaqa, but he was scumreading both.

Precisely because celaph was scumreading ghug.

I don't think killing who scumread you is a bad move. I did this with PE last game. In the end it's pure WIFOM.

[damo666]

Why not? Celaph was scumreading Ghug. The last part was just to say he can't see scum Ghug with town Chaqa, but he was scumreading both.

Precisely because celaph was scumreading ghug.

I don't think killing who scumread you is a bad move. I did this with PE last game. In the end it's pure WIFOM.

Well it's WIFOM either way I guess.

I'm pretty sure it's not GR anyway!

[damo666]

Whoa. Mistake in my assumption.

GJ and JW could have killed celaph.

Add those pairings back in the mix.

Anyway JBH is scum in all cases unless ER has me fooled.

To summarise I am left with

EJ
ER
GJ
JW

Can anybody outside a pairing justify eliminating any of these?

I still think JBH is the best vote.

If I add back EG and GW then I get the following frequency count:

E 3
G 3
J 3
R 1
W 1

However E and G are voting each other so if I give this pairing less weight J is still the best vote.

I'm interested in what W has to say.

[Johnny Big Horse]

Vote for me if you want. You guys are more invested in this game than I am. You have put a lot of hours into studying and analyzing. It is a shame to throw away your chances of victory like this.

I will say this. If you vote me out, you will be disappointed. I am town.

(But, every mafioso says that.)

Do what you will. But I told you so.

[Johnny Big Horse]

And also, I am really unimpressed by all your analysis, grasping at straws, and still, you have no more clue than I do. That should make you scratch your head and consider that maybe you guys are playing this game wrong.

I know, this will piss you off, and then you will really want to vote me out of town. Go ahead.

But really, you should think it over. Just because everyone thinks a certain way, it does not mean it is right. Usually it means it is insufficient because most people are mediocrities.

You guys are playing this game wrong. But I don't know the right way to play. Maybe there is no better way.

[worcej]

FWIW - I am here now. 2nd half of the weekend was rough with wife at a funeral and I turned into daddy daycare.

eg gw or rw

@JBH who do you think is more likely to he scum out of ghug and worcej?

You shouldn't ask me. I know jack squat.
I thought Worcez was town until his last long missive, and now I reconsider.

This sticks out awkward to me. What context led to you reconsidering?

[worcej]

If you are town and rdr/worcej is impossible then one of JBH and EMC must be scum. Should we not obviously vote EMC?

Can I ask if your willingness to vote EMC is only because ghug's reads?

[Johnny Big Horse]

FWIW - I am here now. 2nd half of the weekend was rough with wife at a funeral and I turned into daddy daycare.

eg gw or rw

@JBH who do you think is more likely to he scum out of ghug and worcej?

You shouldn't ask me. I know jack squat.
I thought Worcez was town until his last long missive, and now I reconsider.

This sticks out awkward to me. What context led to you reconsidering?

@Worcez, I don't remember what it was. I don't have a clue anymore on anyone. I lean towards Rivera as mafia.

Also, anyone who thinks I am scum, must be. But that is silly reasoning, but I am going with it.

[ghug]

Day 2 voting makes ER problematic.

Conclusion

The remaining scum pair are

Johnny and EMC

These are the only pair that explains JBH shot claim N2 AND the celaph NK.

They both also failed to vote Chaqa d4.

@rdr @ghug @worcej

If you disagree please point out the failing in my argument.

I think you make too many assumptions, like Ghug or Worcej won't kill Celaph (they will, Ghug have a high respect for Celaph town play) or that I can't be scum with emc because of voting (that's a buss/distancing that would make sense, not the Chaqa push at EOD like Ghug tried to force that I was bussing out of the blue).

But overall I think flipping JBH today isn't a bad choice, specially if the other option is myself.

I largely agree with this, though my complaints are more with the assumptions that eliminate rd's teams.

It would help if you were explaining things better, damo. Why does that one post eliminate JR? Why does the day two voting eliminate ER?

[ghug]

I think Chaqa is scum, one of ghug/rdr is scum (leaning ghug atm), and I'm not sure who the third is. ##vote Chaqa

I don't think that there is an open and shut case on him, but I have a hard time building a scumteam assuming town Chaqa. Removing Damo, JBH, Chaqa, and myself rdr, ghug, worcej, and emc are left. I liked damo's of worcej/emc likely not being scum together and while I can see that an rdr, ghug, worcej/emc team is possible, it wouldn't be my top bet. For one, I think ghug would have used his comment about rdr bussing to move to Chaqa's wagon.

Given this post I can't see ghug killing celaph unless he was JBH's partner.

Why not? Celaph was scumreading Ghug. The last part was just to say he can't see scum Ghug with town Chaqa, but he was scumreading both.

I think it's a stretch to say he was absolutely scumreading me. He said it was one of the two of us and he was leaning me. He proceeded to not post all night, which suggests to me that he was killed because his reads were a wildcard that could lead to less certainty going into the day.

[ghug]

Precisely because celaph was scumreading ghug.

I don't think killing who scumread you is a bad move. I did this with PE last game. In the end it's pure WIFOM.

Well it's WIFOM either way I guess.

I'm pretty sure it's not GR anyway!

Man, that would be awesome.

[worcej]

This was a unexpected NK. Celahp wasn´t widely townread and neither have strong reads. I guess scum went for good town player, which is inline with the other NKs (Snowy, Xorxes, PE).
Which get me back to the question that wasn´t answered since N2. Why scum decide to kill JBH?

Honestly, this is a good question. The best guess I have is aim a shot at the new guy and hope he panic picked a N1 rose. Contextually at the time, the shot doesn't make any real sense. Putting on some thick WIFOM glasses, maybe it was done to shade Jamie?

He wasn´t widele townread, his reads are awful and he was a potential misskil. The most sensible answer is: They didn´t. It was a cover to Chaqa scum shot.

You lose me here. I don't see how the shot was a cover for Chaqa because, to me, it brought more attention to Chaqa than anything else.

Anyone who is impressed by his "noob town aggresive" play should take another look at him and his play at D3/D4 where he was scumreading Chaqa but never pushed him, verry different from the interaction with Damo and Jamiet.

The way I look at it is JBH withdrew this style because his Jamie read was actually that awful. I think it's natural for people, especially newer people at this game, to regress in assertiveness when they are blatantly wrong. JBH has shown this heavily, especially with the comments to sheep, that lead me to believe still that JBH is town.

And the other one I think is Ghug. The way he avoided Chaqa, the way he and Chaqa interacted D1 in a way that Chaqa could not shoot him like he told he will do, it's scum Ghug in action.

I agree that there is a change in style from ghug compared to other games, where he had no issue to kill 'bad people', however the change in style can also just fall into trying to be a better mannered player.

I think there is a chance this is scum motivated and having recently played as scum with ghug, he wasn't incredibly active with his scum partners but also didn't obviously separate either. With that being said, I do not see a world where you (rdr) and ghug are on the same team, unless you both decided to bus each other heavily as a strategy.

I am pretty sure that Damo and Worcej are town at this point, I see the same reactions I have at some points and the same town approach to try to solve the game, even when we don´t agree. If one of them are scum, congrats.

Which leaves emc, that is a big question mark. This is why we can´t allow emc to play this way and should police kill him at first days. Nothing personal, but it hurts towns at the end. If I am wrong on Ghug or JBH it's emc, but I honestly can´t find any reason to either solid townread him or scumread him. Right now only the vote on Ghug, but it could still be a well crafted buss.

Can I ask what makes you certain of Damo? I see a lot of inconsistency from damo right now on his reasoning when typically he is more analytical and stubborn (for the lack of a better word right now) when having discussions about alignment/teams.

And we agree on EMC, that's for sure. I wish some other members of the community would agree to resolve a flip of an AFK EMC more often...

[ghug]

And also, I am really unimpressed by all your analysis, grasping at straws, and still, you have no more clue than I do. That should make you scratch your head and consider that maybe you guys are playing this game wrong.

I know, this will piss you off, and then you will really want to vote me out of town. Go ahead.

But really, you should think it over. Just because everyone thinks a certain way, it does not mean it is right. Usually it means it is insufficient because most people are mediocrities.

You guys are playing this game wrong. But I don't know the right way to play. Maybe there is no better way.

Heh, yeah, it's just hard.

[damo666]

If you are town and rdr/worcej is impossible then one of JBH and EMC must be scum. Should we not obviously vote EMC?

Can I ask if your willingness to vote EMC is only because ghug's reads?

No, I'm questioning whether ghug is willing to vote emc.

[worcej]

@rdr you say celaph was killed because he is a good player. Surely that argument could be used against most potential kills.

Let's think about why celaph was killed.

I'm going to list each possible pair and see if celaph makes sense as a kill.

Eg arguably w or me make more sense
EJ possible
Er I think kill me
Ew possible
Gj possible
Gr I think kill me or w
Gw I think kill me
Jr maybe
Jw possible
Rw more likely to kill me I think

So possibles count

E 2
G 1
J 3
R 1
W 2

Interesting.

What was the criteria for possibilities or not?

Without knowing how you arrived at the conclusions, this is just a made up list to me.

[ghug]

This was a unexpected NK. Celahp wasn´t widely townread and neither have strong reads. I guess scum went for good town player, which is inline with the other NKs (Snowy, Xorxes, PE).
Which get me back to the question that wasn´t answered since N2. Why scum decide to kill JBH?

Honestly, this is a good question. The best guess I have is aim a shot at the new guy and hope he panic picked a N1 rose. Contextually at the time, the shot doesn't make any real sense. Putting on some thick WIFOM glasses, maybe it was done to shade Jamie?

He wasn´t widele townread, his reads are awful and he was a potential misskil. The most sensible answer is: They didn´t. It was a cover to Chaqa scum shot.

You lose me here. I don't see how the shot was a cover for Chaqa because, to me, it brought more attention to Chaqa than anything else.

Anyone who is impressed by his "noob town aggresive" play should take another look at him and his play at D3/D4 where he was scumreading Chaqa but never pushed him, verry different from the interaction with Damo and Jamiet.

The way I look at it is JBH withdrew this style because his Jamie read was actually that awful. I think it's natural for people, especially newer people at this game, to regress in assertiveness when they are blatantly wrong. JBH has shown this heavily, especially with the comments to sheep, that lead me to believe still that JBH is town.

And the other one I think is Ghug. The way he avoided Chaqa, the way he and Chaqa interacted D1 in a way that Chaqa could not shoot him like he told he will do, it's scum Ghug in action.

I agree that there is a change in style from ghug compared to other games, where he had no issue to kill 'bad people', however the change in style can also just fall into trying to be a better mannered player.

I think there is a chance this is scum motivated and having recently played as scum with ghug, he wasn't incredibly active with his scum partners but also didn't obviously separate either. With that being said, I do not see a world where you (rdr) and ghug are on the same team, unless you both decided to bus each other heavily as a strategy.

I am pretty sure that Damo and Worcej are town at this point, I see the same reactions I have at some points and the same town approach to try to solve the game, even when we don´t agree. If one of them are scum, congrats.

Which leaves emc, that is a big question mark. This is why we can´t allow emc to play this way and should police kill him at first days. Nothing personal, but it hurts towns at the end. If I am wrong on Ghug or JBH it's emc, but I honestly can´t find any reason to either solid townread him or scumread him. Right now only the vote on Ghug, but it could still be a well crafted buss.

Can I ask what makes you certain of Damo? I see a lot of inconsistency from damo right now on his reasoning when typically he is more analytical and stubborn (for the lack of a better word right now) when having discussions about alignment/teams.

And we agree on EMC, that's for sure. I wish some other members of the community would agree to resolve a flip of an AFK EMC more often...

I was actually just wondering if damo being more flip-floppy than normal means something, but I'm also really struggling to make sense of this game right now, so I think it's just that.

[damo666]

Day 2 voting makes ER problematic.

Conclusion

The remaining scum pair are

Johnny and EMC

These are the only pair that explains JBH shot claim N2 AND the celaph NK.

They both also failed to vote Chaqa d4.

@rdr @ghug @worcej

If you disagree please point out the failing in my argument.

I think you make too many assumptions, like Ghug or Worcej won't kill Celaph (they will, Ghug have a high respect for Celaph town play) or that I can't be scum with emc because of voting (that's a buss/distancing that would make sense, not the Chaqa push at EOD like Ghug tried to force that I was bussing out of the blue).

But overall I think flipping JBH today isn't a bad choice, specially if the other option is myself.

I largely agree with this, though my complaints are more with the assumptions that eliminate rd's teams.

It would help if you were explaining things better, damo. Why does that one post eliminate JR? Why does the day two voting eliminate ER?

Eliminate is probably too strong. 'Makes less likely' is more appropriate. One has to make some assumptions in order to decide on who to vote.

[ghug]

I think you make too many assumptions, like Ghug or Worcej won't kill Celaph (they will, Ghug have a high respect for Celaph town play) or that I can't be scum with emc because of voting (that's a buss/distancing that would make sense, not the Chaqa push at EOD like Ghug tried to force that I was bussing out of the blue).

But overall I think flipping JBH today isn't a bad choice, specially if the other option is myself.

I largely agree with this, though my complaints are more with the assumptions that eliminate rd's teams.

It would help if you were explaining things better, damo. Why does that one post eliminate JR? Why does the day two voting eliminate ER?

Eliminate is probably too strong. 'Makes less likely' is more appropriate. One has to make some assumptions in order to decide on who to vote.

Ok. I'm less concerned with the semantics and more with explaining your logic.