M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[ghug]

##VOTE rd

[dargorygel]

VOTE COUNT 5.02
ghug: (2) e.m.c^42, rdrivera2005
rdrivera2005: (2) Johnny Big Horse, ghug
worcej: (1) damo666

Not voting yet, nor yet posting: worcej
No one is set to be killinated

[ghug]

rd, assume for a second we're both town. Who's scum?

[rdrivera2005]

rd, assume for a second we're both town. Who's scum?

I would still assume JBH. The other one would be emc probably as I don't think Damo or Worcej are scum.
I can see Damo as scum with you if I am wrong about JBH, but it's really unlikely.

[Johnny Big Horse]

I don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.

The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.

[rdrivera2005]

I don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.

The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.

So, if you are just a clueless newbie, why the experienced scumteam decided to kill you N2 instead of any of the other experienced players that are alive, including one that didn't have a rose for sure (Jamiet)? You fake claiming a shot is the best way to get pressure off you and give a cover for the scum Chaqa shot.
The fact no other town can see this is just making me crazy. No one was able to give a reason to why scum shoot you but they still think you are town.

[Johnny Big Horse]

I don't know how to clear myself. But think about it. Can a clueless newb fool you this good? Even if coached, can I do it? You guys are expert at this game. Maybe a genius who has played before can do it. Not me. I haven't played before. I have played Avalon about 10 times.

The fact that rivera thinks I am scum makes me think he is deflecting from the truth of his mafia nature.

So, if you are just a clueless newbie, why the experienced scumteam decided to kill you N2 instead of any of the other experienced players that are alive, including one that didn't have a rose for sure (Jamiet)? You fake claiming a shot is the best way to get pressure off you and give a cover for the scum Chaqa shot.
The fact no other town can see this is just making me crazy. No one was able to give a reason to why scum shoot you but they still think you are town.

I don't know why I was shot. Nor am I convinced Scum did it. I hope when the game is over, the Mafia can explain this.

[damo666]

Rdr is right. No pairing out of Damo emc ghug rdr worcej would have shot JBH.

I suspect his partner is EMC with just a vague chance of worcej

##vote Johnny

[ghug]

Rdr is right. No pairing out of Damo emc ghug rdr worcej would have shot JBH.

I suspect his partner is EMC with just a vague chance of worcej

##vote Johnny

We have to remember that Chaqa was involved

[ghug]

It's going to be 110 degrees here tomorrow (that's like 44 for y'all sensible nations) and I don't have AC so if I don't post a lot it's because I'm dead.

[damo666]

Rdr is right. No pairing out of Damo emc ghug rdr worcej would have shot JBH.

I suspect his partner is EMC with just a vague chance of worcej

##vote Johnny

We have to remember that Chaqa was involved

So? Which pair would allow Chaqa to kill townJBH at that stage? EMC and rdr? EMC and worcej?

[damo666]

It's going to be 110 degrees here tomorrow (that's like 44 for y'all sensible nations) and I don't have AC so if I don't post a lot it's because I'm dead.

Game will be over if we don't kill scum.

[damo666]

A couple of thoughts on the voting:

• Chaqa didn't vote for rdr today until I pressed him on it, despite the fact that he supposedly scumread him for days and it was the leading counterwagon to his own kill.

• The JBH move to celaph feels like he wasn't trying to protect Chaqa. If they were scum together, Horsey would have known Chaqa was willing to flip to rdr and stayed on that wagon with me. Obviously if rdr is scum too this makes more sense, but it seems likely that mafia settled on Chaqa dying before today, so JBH as a partner putting himself out there to half-heartedly doesn't make a lot of sense anyway.

• There was no last minute attempt by scum to shift the vote. I think this is probably just risk aversion/people not being here, but it is worth keeping in mind. A damo emc pairing, for examine, could plausibly have gone for it.

The second point here would indicate either JBH is town or ghug is his scum partner

[damo666]

Well if Johnny is scum the only person who would possibly have gone along with that plan is brain so

Celaph is still the best kill tomorrow.

If the n5 and n6 kills are me and worcej then you can seriously look at JBH

JBH scum would explain the celaph kill

[damo666]

I'm fairly confident worcej is town so for me it's 2 from
braincel
EMC
Ghug
Rdr

Braincel - brain being a scumgun could explain his early rantings and he would be fair game for Chaqa's plan, celaph has been very quiet, possibly finding it difficult to have inherited the role and/or struggle to find something useful to say - strong possibility of guilt

EMC - usual low input play NAI. A likely candidate to submit to Chaqa shenanigans. False reaction to D4 reveal? - medium possibilty of guilt

Ghug - mainly townreading him but then I usually do. Seemed reluctant to vote Chaqa but late late move seems much more towny than scum. Slight possibilty he's budding me. Low possibility of guilt

Rdr - looks like him and Chaqa could have been bussing each other. Hard to read as per usual. Medium possibilty of guilt.

If I go with my gut feel that ghug is town (and I can't see ghug endorsing a n2 JBH hit) we are left with 3 possibilities

Braincel EMC
Braincel rdr
EMC rdr

I think EMC rdr is doubtful due to day 2 voting.

Therefore I think you should vote celaph tomorrow. I am reluctant to guess his partner.

If I'm right about braincel I expect day 6 will be

EMC ghug JBH rdr

In this case Johnny follow ghug which will no doubt vote rdr.

This way if EMC is the guilty party with braincel it will be ghug's fault, not mine. Lol.

Given the above post surely any pairing with g or w would kill the other with gw killing J. I therefore assume g and w are town.

This leaves three possibilities

EJ
ER
JR

[damo666]

JBH is almost certainly town.

A scum JBH would imply a n3 scum gun. Why would they not just shoot me say. This would throw shade on JBH but give town wriggle room for Chaqa.

I'm locktowning JBH

If scum use a gun N3 it will be 100% sure one of Chaqa or JBH was lying and we will flip one of them. If it's Chaqa we will also learn JBH is scum. So the right move here is hold the shot.
So, don't clear JBH over this.

I can't see rdr posting this if he were partner with J so eliminate JR

[damo666]

Day 2 voting makes ER problematic.

Conclusion

The remaining scum pair are

Johnny and EMC

These are the only pair that explains JBH shot claim N2 AND the celaph NK.

They both also failed to vote Chaqa d4.

@rdr @ghug @worcej

If you disagree please point out the failing in my argument.

[damo666]

Whoa. Mistake in my assumption.

GJ and JW could have killed celaph.

Add those pairings back in the mix.

Anyway JBH is scum in all cases unless ER has me fooled.

To summarise I am left with

EJ
ER
GJ
JW

Can anybody outside a pairing justify eliminating any of these?

I still think JBH is the best vote.

[rdrivera2005]

Day 2 voting makes ER problematic.

Conclusion

The remaining scum pair are

Johnny and EMC

These are the only pair that explains JBH shot claim N2 AND the celaph NK.

They both also failed to vote Chaqa d4.

@rdr @ghug @worcej

If you disagree please point out the failing in my argument.

I think you make too many assumptions, like Ghug or Worcej won't kill Celaph (they will, Ghug have a high respect for Celaph town play) or that I can't be scum with emc because of voting (that's a buss/distancing that would make sense, not the Chaqa push at EOD like Ghug tried to force that I was bussing out of the blue).

But overall I think flipping JBH today isn't a bad choice, specially if the other option is myself.

[damo666]

I think Chaqa is scum, one of ghug/rdr is scum (leaning ghug atm), and I'm not sure who the third is. ##vote Chaqa

I don't think that there is an open and shut case on him, but I have a hard time building a scumteam assuming town Chaqa. Removing Damo, JBH, Chaqa, and myself rdr, ghug, worcej, and emc are left. I liked damo's of worcej/emc likely not being scum together and while I can see that an rdr, ghug, worcej/emc team is possible, it wouldn't be my top bet. For one, I think ghug would have used his comment about rdr bussing to move to Chaqa's wagon.

Given this post I can't see ghug killing celaph unless he was JBH's partner.