M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[Johnny Big Horse]

The question is why did they shoot me. I hope after the game they will explain.

But... I did say on Day 2 that was Jaime, Chaqa and Rivera. I was wrong on Jaime, but I had 2 of the 3. For stupid reasons, sure, but I think I had 2 of the 3. Maybe that is why they shot me.

[Johnny Big Horse]

then I voted Macca.... and then I decided it was Damo and Jamie...

So, no point bragging about anything. I was all over the map.

[worcej]

I fucking knew it! Got one!

Time to digest. I think I am next over anyone else and will reflect/post accordingly near EOD.

[ghug]

I fucking knew it! Got one!

Time to digest. I think I am next over anyone else and will reflect/post accordingly near EOD.

Please expand on why you think this.

[damo666]

JBH is almost certainly town.

A scum JBH would imply a n3 scum gun. Why would they not just shoot me say. This would throw shade on JBH but give town wriggle room for Chaqa.

I'm locktowning JBH

[damo666]

Tonight's kill is probably me, Johnny or Worcej.

I'll post my conclusions before EON

[rdrivera2005]

JBH is almost certainly town.

A scum JBH would imply a n3 scum gun. Why would they not just shoot me say. This would throw shade on JBH but give town wriggle room for Chaqa.

I'm locktowning JBH

If scum use a gun N3 it will be 100% sure one of Chaqa or JBH was lying and we will flip one of them. If it's Chaqa we will also learn JBH is scum. So the right move here is hold the shot.
So, don't clear JBH over this.

[damo666]

I'm fairly confident worcej is town so for me it's 2 from
braincel
EMC
Ghug
Rdr

Braincel - brain being a scumgun could explain his early rantings and he would be fair game for Chaqa's plan, celaph has been very quiet, possibly finding it difficult to have inherited the role and/or struggle to find something useful to say - strong possibility of guilt

EMC - usual low input play NAI. A likely candidate to submit to Chaqa shenanigans. False reaction to D4 reveal? - medium possibilty of guilt

Ghug - mainly townreading him but then I usually do. Seemed reluctant to vote Chaqa but late late move seems much more towny than scum. Slight possibilty he's budding me. Low possibility of guilt

Rdr - looks like him and Chaqa could have been bussing each other. Hard to read as per usual. Medium possibilty of guilt.

If I go with my gut feel that ghug is town (and I can't see ghug endorsing a n2 JBH hit) we are left with 3 possibilities

Braincel EMC
Braincel rdr
EMC rdr

I think EMC rdr is doubtful due to day 2 voting.

Therefore I think you should vote celaph tomorrow. I am reluctant to guess his partner.

If I'm right about braincel I expect day 6 will be

EMC ghug JBH rdr

In this case Johnny follow ghug which will no doubt vote rdr.

This way if EMC is the guilty party with braincel it will be ghug's fault, not mine. Lol.

[damo666]

JBH is almost certainly town.

A scum JBH would imply a n3 scum gun. Why would they not just shoot me say. This would throw shade on JBH but give town wriggle room for Chaqa.

I'm locktowning JBH

If scum use a gun N3 it will be 100% sure one of Chaqa or JBH was lying and we will flip one of them. If it's Chaqa we will also learn JBH is scum. So the right move here is hold the shot.
So, don't clear JBH over this.

Oh.

[damo666]

Well if Johnny is scum the only person who would possibly have gone along with that plan is brain so

Celaph is still the best kill tomorrow.

If the n5 and n6 kills are me and worcej then you can seriously look at JBH

[damo666]

I wish the site wouldn't crash at such inopportune moments.

Now the question is how many bussers?

None - could it be that simple?
One - celaph? rdr?
Two - hmmm?

Yey, one down and we are still in the game. I am starting to feel good about town chances for the first time after D2.

And I think the asnwer is the simple one. Ghug is scum and made all the possible effor to avoid a Chaqa wagon on D3 and D4, while even scumreading Chaqa. And his puppet JHK who never voted Chaqa either is the third one

Damo, I think you are the most likely NK so try to read the game carefully and please re-read Ghug D1 and his interaction with Chaqa and try to understand why he choose to shot Jamiet instead of Ghug....

I've reread both Chaqa and ghug D1 and N1 and I don't find anything obvious to implicate anyone.

[Johnny Big Horse]

Tonight, they should kill most obvious towny guy, who is me.

But they might also kill whomever is closest to figuring it out and who is listened to. Not me.

Mafia is RDR and Cell

Riveria keeps saying I am mafia. No one else buys his arguments, I think. Why would he do that? Nobody is really pointing at Ghug or Damo anymore. Deflect, deflect, deflect.

[damo666]

Tonight, they should kill most obvious towny guy, who is me.

But they might also kill whomever is closest to figuring it out and who is listened to. Not me.

Mafia is RDR and Cell

Riveria keeps saying I am mafia. No one else buys his arguments, I think. Why would he do that? Nobody is really pointing at Ghug or Damo anymore. Deflect, deflect, deflect.

I suspect you'll be kept alive due to the confusion factor because of your claim.

[damo666]

.......

If I'm right about braincel I expect day 6 will be

EMC ghug JBH rdr

In this case Johnny follow ghug which* will no doubt vote rdr.

This way if EMC is the guilty party with braincel it will be ghug's fault, not mine. Lol.

*who [sorry]

[ghug]

This way if EMC is the guilty party with braincel it will be ghug's fault, not mine. Lol.

Thanks...

[damo666]

This way if EMC is the guilty party with braincel it will be ghug's fault, not mine. Lol.

Thanks...

[worcej]

I fucking knew it! Got one!

Time to digest. I think I am next over anyone else and will reflect/post accordingly near EOD.

Please expand on why you think this.

Because I am town and I am fairly sure JBH is town based off gun math alone. I can see JBH dying here because of that claim and the chance to get him miskilled has been eliminated due to the Chaqa flip.

[damo666]

@worcej what do you make of my analysis?

[Johnny Big Horse]

I fucking knew it! Got one!

Time to digest. I think I am next over anyone else and will reflect/post accordingly near EOD.

Please expand on why you think this.

Because I am town and I am fairly sure JBH is town based off gun math alone. I can see JBH dying here because of that claim and the chance to get him miskilled has been eliminated due to the Chaqa flip.

What claim?

[worcej]

My reads in case I do die:

JBH - unchanged, still think he is town who took the 3rd bullet from the third scum gun. I've discussed him a lot already, so no need to repeat it all.

Damo - I questioned his hard push on JBH with Jamie on D3 and now knowing Chaqa was scum, there is a connection now in that Chaqa's move when the vote was all tied onto HB could've been the move to save a scum!damo partner. Also, via VCA, damo never pushed Chaqa nor probed him until D4. He also tried to get people to move to EMC over Chaqa... That all being said, his posting lately seems in line with town and I am getting those vibes (unless he is trying to pocket me...) but the circumstances around him point to possible pairings.

ghug - Similar to damo, there was a lot of distancing from Chaqa and never voted him until the last minute. He also came off hard with a sense of vocalized concern regarding the game ending, but did eventually vote him to ensure no last-minute shenanigans. I sense this would be in his bussing potential and not much of a stretch to pull off.

rdr - My reads are very in line with the same thinking he has, which is leading me to town him. He isn't piggybacking off my reads either (we each post something first then the other agrees) so I don't sense him pocketing me in any way.

Brain/Celaph - Brain's contribution led me to town him and celaph continues to also do the same, though with limited posting. The questioning and poke backs that he is doing at numerous people is what I expect from town!celaph trying to figure things out.

EMC - I haven't sensed any large amount of engagement or even concern about the gamestate, however this isn't AI with him based on meta... I am now stuck at the point of needing to assess scum teams that could include him, which is pretty much anyone other than my town reads. I wish we would've flipped him earlier...

TL;DR - I town JBH, rdr, and celaph, and the scum are amongst damo, ghug, and emc.