M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[damo666]

Ok my bedtime.

Think through what I have said and you can see it makes sense.

@JBH if you are town (very possible I admit) think through the logic of what I am saying and you will see it makes sense. Sometimes you have to take one for the team and if you are town then your sacrifice may still help us win.

[Hamilton Brian]

Since no one claimed anything it's probably NK and two scum guns then, which is good since that only leaves one at most?

Can't assume one was used N1 or is that falling for potential fake claims?

[damo666]

Is it legal to copy paste the private msg vecna sent me about being shot? If so I can.

Do you think a newbie, who has never seen a msg like this, would be able to create an authentic one?

If it is legal, I will copy paste it..

You have seen it in post #1006.

[damo666]

Since no one claimed anything it's probably NK and two scum guns then, which is good since that only leaves one at most?

Can't assume one was used N1 or is that falling for potential fake claims?

EMC is talking about N2 and assuming JBH was shot. In this case if Chaqa is town 1 scum gun left, if Chaqa scum no scum guns left.

[Hamilton Brian]

The hell are you talking END for with a vote on JBH, damo?

[Hamilton Brian]

I feel like I've been blacked-out and putting together the pieces. No one claimed to have shot at Snow. We're taking chaqa at their word that they shot at Jamie?

[Hamilton Brian]

##Vote Chaqa

I think it's as viable as a ghug wagon. Both wagons fit my foodcoats D1 hypothesis. A tied wagon right now...well, it's the squirming I want to see. And chaqa got past the D1 kill barrier.

[Hamilton Brian]

When I was postulating that Jamie or Snowy would be the prime N2 mafia kills, I expected it to be Jamie the whole time. Mafia feel like more people read snowy as townier than Jamie OR Jamie is scum. Are we 100% Jamie is townclear from the events of N1?

[Johnny Big Horse]

When I was postulating that Jamie or Snowy would be the prime N2 mafia kills, I expected it to be Jamie the whole time. Mafia feel like more people read snowy as townier than Jamie OR Jamie is scum. Are we 100% Jamie is townclear from the events of N1?

Who is we? I think Jaime is scum. PE thought Jaime is scum. At one point, even BB thought so, but probably not anymore.

[Johnny Big Horse]

and even Snowy entertained the idea, did not rule it out in his last message before death.

[Hamilton Brian]

Longer damo sits on this end vote I'm going to think they're scum.

[ghug]

im operating under the assumption that eden was right about ghug early and was killed by ghug

Eden wasn't scumreading me anymore, and you know I'm all about killing townclears. That's some bullshit.

[Johnny Big Horse]

@Damo: Doesn't your little theory rely on the assumption that JBH is not only lying, but that *he* has a gun which he has not yet fired? How could you know that last part?

Otherwise, I fail to see how your idea is the only possible logical vote.

Let us assume JBH is scum and Chaqa is town having fired a gun N1.

Case A JBH has already used his gun. There are 2 other scum guns left with two known vulnerable targets.

We mk a town it is 6-3, the 2 guaranteed kills is 6-4 and they use the factional kill against someone not having a N3 rose (>67% surely) town is toast.

Case A JBH has not yet used his gun. Exactly as above with JBH as a gun holder.

We cannot afford to not lynch JBH.

If we mk JBH scum then only has one gun left and we have a chance.

JBH IS THE ONLY SENSIBLE VOTE FOR TOWNSFOLK

Your logic is great here.... except you base it on false assumptions.
Let's assume A, therefore B, therefore A is true.
That is your argument.
Assume Johnny is scum, therefore this or that, therefore vote Johnny because he is scum.
This is the type of crazy logic I was criticizing earlier when I talked about statistics for the first time. You have to get your premises right, then you can apply your reasoning.
Damo, I know you are smarter than this. You are an expert player. Play like one.

[Johnny Big Horse]

oh, or you are mafia, but I already have my 3 slots taken up. Can't have 4.

[ghug]

@Damo: Doesn't your little theory rely on the assumption that JBH is not only lying, but that *he* has a gun which he has not yet fired? How could you know that last part?

Otherwise, I fail to see how your idea is the only possible logical vote.

Let us assume JBH is scum and Chaqa is town having fired a gun N1.

Case A JBH has already used his gun. There are 2 other scum guns left with two known vulnerable targets.

We mk a town it is 6-3, the 2 guaranteed kills is 6-4 and they use the factional kill against someone not having a N3 rose (>67% surely) town is toast.

Case A JBH has not yet used his gun. Exactly as above with JBH as a gun holder.

We cannot afford to not lynch JBH.

If we mk JBH scum then only has one gun left and we have a chance.

JBH IS THE ONLY SENSIBLE VOTE FOR TOWNSFOLK

This feels like town damo.

[ghug]

Longer damo sits on this end vote I'm going to think they're scum.

This is the scum HB that likes to threaten people.##VOTE Hamilton

[rdrivera2005]

@Damo: Doesn't your little theory rely on the assumption that JBH is not only lying, but that *he* has a gun which he has not yet fired? How could you know that last part?

Otherwise, I fail to see how your idea is the only possible logical vote.

Let us assume JBH is scum and Chaqa is town having fired a gun N1.

Case A JBH has already used his gun. There are 2 other scum guns left with two known vulnerable targets.

We mk a town it is 6-3, the 2 guaranteed kills is 6-4 and they use the factional kill against someone not having a N3 rose (>67% surely) town is toast.

Case A JBH has not yet used his gun. Exactly as above with JBH as a gun holder.

We cannot afford to not lynch JBH.

If we mk JBH scum then only has one gun left and we have a chance.

JBH IS THE ONLY SENSIBLE VOTE FOR TOWNSFOLK

Damo, I understand your logic, but it only makes sense if you think JBH is scum. I understand that if he is scum and we miskill today we can lose at night if Mafia still have two guns. But if he is town, we will probably be down to 4-3 tomorrow with 0 info from today. This is almost sure defeat too.

So, voting JBH only makes sense if you think he is scum and I don't think he is.

[ghug]

Alright, so max three scum guns. Assume scum hit both snowy and Eden, and JBH If he was really hit. If that's not the case, the town shooter needs to claim.

Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Potentially 2 scum guns outstanding for N3, but there were multiple shots N1, so Chaqa actually probably shot Jamie, barring some other claim. This could be KILO, but it's very unlikely.
Chaqa scum, Jamie scum, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH scum - 1 scum gun outstanding
Chaqa scum, Jamie town, JBH town - Chaqa shot Jamie, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH scum - Jamie had a rose, so one scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie scum, JBH town - Jamie had a rose, JBH was shot, so no scum gun outstanding
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH scum - Potentially two guns left to be shot. This is the scary timeline
Chaqa town, Jamie town, JBH town - 1 scum gun outstanding

The only case where we're in KILO, presuming no town tells us anything new about shots, which they must if they know something, is if Chaqa and Jamie are town. To me, that means scum has to be horsey plus some combination of Rd/worcej/Brian/damo, and I'd rather just kill in that group, since I independently townread our horse friend.

It'll be useful to come back to this tomorrow after another round of kills. If there's a shot, we eliminate the possibilities with no shots remaining

[ghug]

If the Eden kill implicates anyone, it's Chaqa and kinda Jamie, but this seems like a scenario where mafia can gamble on misdirecting a little.

[ghug]

Jamie, why did you join brainbomb in voting for me?