M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[brainbomb]

Lol I'm failing to understand what's happening with snowy, is this a bait 'n switch or actual scumread?

the way you say this pretty much guarantees you are scum whether with him or not kinda is irrelevant. this is tantamount to confessionmockery

[brainbomb]

when you get to a point where everyones reads are amusing and its all a huge Wow you really feel that way?

yea thats when its time to kill emc

[e.m.c^42]

Lol I'm failing to understand what's happening with snowy, is this a bait 'n switch or actual scumread?

the way you say this pretty much guarantees you are scum whether with him or not kinda is irrelevant. this is tantamount to confessionmockery

When you are saying that he has vest and scum team shot themselves for clear, it is bit of reach? But at same time during signups did try to ask Vecna if I could self-target, so it's not implausible strategy, but he doesn't seem type of player to do that.

[e.m.c^42]

Like snowy seems like all hardass and serious about shit, sort of like HR meets Jamie under bar, from his posts here so far.

[e.m.c^42]

All old-school formulae and cocky, y'know? idk

[brainbomb]

whatever it is you are trying to say im going to regard as anti spew scum tactics to clog the thread.

death becometh you

that is your fate.

[e.m.c^42]

Someone else come and tell me, if I am reading him wrong wrt snowy?

[brainbomb]

the fact you are giving me +1 on posts where im calling for your head to be chopped off and drug through the streets by my golden chariot really tells the tale

[e.m.c^42]

the fact you are giving me +1 on posts where im calling for your head to be chopped off and drug through the streets by my golden chariot really tells the tale

Have you met me :v

[ghug]

the fact you are giving me +1 on posts where im calling for your head to be chopped off and drug through the streets by my golden chariot really tells the tale

He's just into that.

[President Eden]

If I die tonight, my best guess at the mafia team is Chaqa, rivera, worcej, but I only feel confident about Chaqa and I won't be upset if you ignore my other two reads.

Half this town is scumbo-or-dumbo and I am having a lot of trouble sorting it out. If you feel the same way about me I don't blame you.

[Chaqa]

If I die tonight, my best guess at the mafia team is Chaqa, rivera, worcej, but I only feel confident about Chaqa and I won't be upset if you ignore my other two reads.

Half this town is scumbo-or-dumbo and I am having a lot of trouble sorting it out. If you feel the same way about me I don't blame you.

You're in a tunnel my man

[brainbomb]

My top three is always
1. damo
2. emc
3. snowy

after that its
4. Eden
5. Johnny
6. worcej

[Chaqa]

Assuming I live I'll have some thoughts in depth more.

I think scum team is like Hamilton, Rivera, worcej or something.

I feel good about Eden and ghug and brain, and maybe damo.

Snowy/Jamie town for now.

Unsure on others.

[ghug]

My POE is the same as it was except Macca and emc are town now. I'm not as solidly locktown on Chaqa as snowy, but I still think he's likely town.

If I'm putting them in order of scumminess, it's probably:
HB
damo
Eden
worcej
Rivera

I guess, but none of them have done much to distinguish themselves except Eden, and he's earned a bit of ambivalence.

Someone will now accuse me of forgetting Macca is dead.

[rdrivera2005]

I don't think I am going to die tonight with so many people scumreading me, but my actual bet for the scumteam is Damo, HB and a third one between Chaqa, Eden or emc (I keep flip floping my read on this 3).

[snowy801]

I suspect my time is soon to come. Though I shalln't complain should I be graced with another day to live. Either way, here is my last post for the night.

Foreword.

I want to urge all our town players again: abandon your preconceptions. You are wrong. Even if you are right, you are wrong, because 10 minutes later you'll be guessing something else. The important thing to do - the only thing you can do - is to blindly grope towards what few specks of truth floating around and vigorously, ruthlessly crushing any "ideas" you may have thought of as new information and understanding comes in in favor of the new.

Arrogance is exciting. Confidence is exhilarating. But it is also a lie, spurned by your rejection of the notion that you could possibly be wrong - and that if you ever make a mistake, it is the town player's fault for playing poorly and not that you have simply misread the room. You are wrong, always. Remember that, if nothing else.

Condescending moralising aside, here are my current thoughts. I know people said my posts are sometimes hard to understand, so I'll largely break them down into three sections:

1) Chaqa
2) EoD Wagon Analysis
3) General Reads

1. Chaqa. What is it about him? The day 1 gun claim should have, in my mind, immediately exonerated him as town. I currently have a 95%+ confidence that Chaqa is town, and here is why.

Immediately off the bat, he claims a gun 1 hour in before really any additional information comes in. The GM announces that town has 0-2 guns. Imagine, if two more town players come in to hard gun claim - he's toast. Or at least, somebody is, and it elevates him to a very narrow suspicion pool to shoot from, as it did in day 1, especially as flips reveal our items. Brainbomb and ghug edged around a potential gun claim, dancing around the idea but never committing to it. This is a scummy action. Chaqa's is not: he said he had a gun, said who he'd shoot, and had his claim corroborated by Jamiet. Once again: Chaqa did not know how many guns town had. Maybe he's lucky and we actually have 0 guns in our possession - who knows? But until such a point as we see gun counter claims, which can at the very latest be the start of day 3 (deception is a moot point if you are no longer in danger of being shot at n2), there can be little question.

What does this say about the controversy around him? Well first, it says town is stupid, as we cannot possibly have this many scum. But let's dig deeper.

The first person to commit to suspicion on Chaqa was President Eden. In fact, he hard committed to the idea that not only was Chaqa scum, Brainbomb and ghug who softed gun claims (ghug, who claims his post was intended to be a hard gun claim but never really contradicted anyone who stated otherwise day 1 - kinda weird) was out of this world. Either this man is the worst mafia player known to mankind, or he is likely scum. Ghug seems to believe the former, but frankly I believe the latter. I made a long post on this subject here, if you care to revisit it:

https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3 ... 51#p243951

I later suspected that this wanton suspicion came from the fact that President Eden was in possession of a gun and decided nobody else who is town could possibly have one. If President Eden does not claim a n3 gun by the start of d3, strongly consider lynching him. More on Eden later.

But back to Chaqa - overall, there are going to be two camps of people who suspect him. The rampantly idiotic, who are likely to be town as scum would not to be willing to commit wantonly to an idea so stupid. The town players with a gun, who rightly believe the chance of other people also having a gun be unlikely. And the scum who want to encourage misinformation and mistrust, as I stated before, in the forming towncore (for those of you who don't know, towncore is a concept of a group of players who are more or less considered to be town unite to bounce ideas and prevent suspicion and paranoia from splitting rational ideas - more frequent in a game with cops and PR claims).

OBVIOUS DISCLAIMER: if we have further gun claimants, this point is moot. If so, Chaqa is in fact supremely suspicious. My point is that there is no reason to draw out this argument until we come to find such a claimant

I will combine the idiots and the gun possessors into one as both are town indicative, and say off the top of my head that these are the people.

President Eden
ghug
Jamiet99uk
Johnny Big Horse

The people unwilling to commit to Chaqa being scum, but slyly adding to the pile of mistrustees are as follows:

worcej
rdrivera
Hamilton Brian
damo

Keep an eye out on these people. Whatever the truth of Chaqa may turn out to be, this line of thought will prove to be supremely revealing come end game, of that I am sure.

2) EoD Wagon Analysis

Of the first day, I do not have too much to say. People have already commented on who voted for town, who abstained, et al.

Two points I want to raise:

One! I think e.m.c. was unironically saved. Twice he was a contender to vote, twice despite numerous votes asking for his death the town strayed from murdering him outright.

Who do I think saved him? Funnily enough, President Eden. Day 1 we thought both top wagons (Food, brain) were town and were fishing for a wagon. I wanted loudly to vote e.m.c., who already had votes on him. Eden said nah, I'd rather fail to accomplish by putting a useless vote on ghug. If either turn out to be scum, this duo should be considered highly suspect. They are rather hard defending each other too.

Two! Weird behavior from people. brainbomb was absent at EoD for two days in a row. No matter how busy you may become, unless professional obligations literally prevent you from whipping out your phone for 3 minutes, checking the top wagons, shrugging as nobody you see really fits your bill and voting anyway on who you think is best given the wagons. brainbomb is absolutely the type to do that, and he didnt. Honestly overall, I didn't and still don't think he's scum - but as aforementioned that may be my misplaced condescension and he may be playing me like a fiddle. Who knows. It was anomalous, and I wished to raise the point.

worcej has only ever voted for e.m.c. He reveals nothing about his thoughts. I repeat: he has literally only ever voted for e.m.c. throughout both days. Very strange. Does that mean he's definitely scum? No, but keep an eye out.

3) General Reads:

Think ghug, brainbomb, Johnny Big Horse is most towny.

Honestly don't understand the accusations to damo and Hamilton Brian either, both seem towny.

Barring further claims may as well clear Chaqa and Jamiet (all comments on Chaqa conditional on aforementioned axioms)

Likewise conditional town read on President Eden

I'm seeing two or three worlds of scum, mostly in this pool:

President Eden - e.m.c. - damo/Hamilton/worcej/rdrivera
worcej - rdrivera - bb/damo/Johnny???

And I guess you guys could be right about Chaqa. Guys, I am begging you - if there are guns left to be claimed, please claim tomorrow.

My general POE pool:

Unconditional:

e.m.c.
rdrivera
worcej

Conditional:
President Eden
Chaqa
--- (much less scummier even if conditional below - again, things are conditional based on gun claims and other weird shenanigans, like if none of the above turn out to be scum)
brainbomb
ghug

I guess in that order. I suppose it could be Brian and damo too as many others have mentioned, but it seems silly to add them to the list just to not be "wrong" later when I don't think so. Definitely not helping my inner turmoil seeing rdrivera keep scum reading them when I think he's scummy. I guess people could know something I don't, I've never played with them before and meta reads are a thing (yeah remember Macca? Stop trusting meta reads).

My read on HB and damo is largely based on demonstrating inquisitive nature and tone, which I believe the two to have done.

Let's see how wrong I was. See you on the flip side. Good will hunting.

---

PRE-POST EDIT: I APOLOGIZE IN ADVANCE THAT I AM RUNNING QUICKLY OUT OF TIME AND HAVE NOT HAD THE CHANCE TO SUBSTANTIATE ALL MY POINTS WITH ACTUAL REREADS. IF THERE ARE ANY MISINFORMATIONS MAY THE MAFIA GODS FORGIVE ME

[Vecna]

HALT

N2 has ENDED

[Vecna]

All the people in the room are anxiously awaiting for the speaker to turn on again, and for their tormentor to speak once more. Everyone can sense something big is about to happen. It almost feels like….death is in the air.

However, this time the silence is not broken. The feeling of dread that overwhelms you when the lights suddenly turn off without any prior announcement almost chokes the air out of your lungs.

Multiple loud BANGS sound, nearly simultaneously.

Somewhere in the room you hear an odd gurgling sound. When the lights turn back on, you see a man with a pale pace sitting on his knees, his hands grasping his throat, almost like he is attempting to stop the blood from leaving his neck. To no avail.

In a corner on the opposite side of the room you see another person, with a part of his skull missing.

Both corpses are clasping a withered rose that has long lost its protective powers.
Suddenly the speaker crackles, with one lone announcement
“Your numbers are dwindling detectives. Better not waste todays opportunity again to eliminate one of these murderers. Who knows whether you’ll get another opportunity….”

OFFICIAL GAME INFORMATION:

Multiple shots were fired.

President Eden has died. They were El Presidente, Member of SWAT, of the TOWN. They held a N1 Rose.

Snowy801 has died. They were Snowball, K9 trainer, of the TOWN. They held a N1 Rose.

Day 3 has started and will last for 48H.

You may resume posting

[e.m.c^42]

Huh