M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[Johnny Big Horse]

@Johnny

if you were scum would your team take a rose and use factional kill on one of your own?

BB, why ask me? Don't worry, I don't suspect you any more for asking me.

But, yes, definitely. I don't know if Scum get to meet before they pick guns and roses, but it seems a perfect plan to have one scum shoot another scum who has a Rose. That is why I don't really believe in Jamiet's reasoning that the shooter and the two shot are town. If scum did as I would, and if it is possible to do it, then the shooter, I think chaqa khan, and one of the shot are scum, which would be Jamiet.

[Hamilton Brian]

With an hour to go, EMC became “almost” a relevant wagon. With enough of a push they could have gone from 3 to 4, or more. Why didn’t that happen? Who got in the way?

If we look at the end vote it’s Food, Bomb, EMC. Was Brain saved by scum teammates moving to Food? Was EMC saved by scum teammates moving to food?

I think it’s a strong implication that there is scum on that Food wagon. Where I thought that it might have been protecting Brain, brain didn’t do a self-preservation vote. So slight town read of Brain. The D1 stuff still unnerves me. Maybe scum brain doesn't feel the need to self-preserve? Realized teammate will help out?

Brings us to the rest of the crew on Food. Rivera, ghug, chaqa, emc, jamie. At least one of them is scum.

If we DK Jamie, then that potentially gives us info about chaqa. Otherwise, with having lost their vest, they’re a good bet to take the mafia kill. Disregarding jamie, who of the other 4 would make a worthwhile flip?

[ghug]

Sure it does. I never claimed any degree of certainty on anything mechanics-based, just that starting with people who claimed guns was a smart starting point since there could be at most 2 town with guns and since mafia are incentivized to take guns. That is a heuristic, which was employed in the first couple of hours of day 1, and which triggered enough of a reaction out of brainbomb that I thought he was actually mafia from behavior (acting like caught mafia begging to be allowed to play the game).

I thought and still think it's extremely bizarre that you and Chaqa are townreading each other. Y'all are always at each other's throats in these games and neither of you have acted obviously town in a way that I thought should have abated that tendency. I thought it even more bizarre neither of you shot the other. Turns out you apparently didn't have a gun, so that explains half of it, but it's still bizarre that Chaqa was out to shoot someone with a rose to clear them, that you claimed rose near EON, and he didn't shoot you.

You weren't just saying we should shoot in the gun claimamts, though. You were saying all of us were scum together, which is a laughably absurd place to take the argument. Saying the targets should be among the three of us would have been a town reaction, and in fact your progression on brain closely mirrored my own.

I, for my part, townread Chaqa because he claimed the gun in an environment that was already hostile to gun claimamts. I agree that it's a little weird he didn't shoot me, but certainly not gameshatteringly so, and I know that Chaqa believes he's quite good at reading me, which seems a plausible enough explanation.

You're grasping at straws to support your arguments again, rather than actually synthesizing information to decide what your arguments should be. My rose claim was absolutely irrelevant to Chaqa's night action, since I made it seconds before night ended.

You're just arguing semantics in the bold and again throwing suspicion on me for what amounts to a play style and personality difference, just as I've been saying. I listed what I thought was my best guess at the team at the time. My arguments started with the mechanics info but developed into behavioral reads, as is clear if you would read what I'm saying with an open mind and not as though you have an agenda to tear it down no matter what.

You're now saying that our progression on brain was similar and that you see why I might think it weird how you and Chaqa were interacting, so what exactly is your issue with me?

No, it's not semantics or playstyle. Thinking we're each individually a good bet at being scum makes some sense to me. Extending that to saying we're all a team together, which makes no sense, may have its roots in misplaced bravado, but also demonstrates that you're just trying to push the arguments you think will work rather than actually objectively examine the bigger picture. The fact that a couple of your scumreads now looking like town is causing you to reevaluate everything is proof that you weren't just treating us as independent scumreads in a vacuum, which leaves us only with you not thinking like a towny.

Add to the behavioral change, which I'll acknowledge could easily be out of game stuff, and the regularity with which your posts ping my gut as fake, and I feel comfortable continuing to scumread you.

Why do you care so much about one scumread when I'm not even voting you?

[snowy801]

##vote macca

[Hamilton Brian]

##vote macca

Why are you down for a Macca flip?

[snowy801]

##vote macca

Why are you down for a Macca flip?

I don't believe they've written a single useful post all game.

[Vecna]

##GM Note
Vote Count 2.4

Macca573 (3) damo666, ghug, snowy801
ghug (2) Johnny Big Horse, Macca573
e.m.c^42 (2) rdrivera2005, Jamiet99uk
damo666 (1) brainbomb
worcej (1) President Eden

[worcej]

I also think the people truly flying under the radar aren't people like macca and emc, but worcej and rdrivera.

The truly exceptional lurkers are more noticeable than the barely passable, and I know a lot of people townread rivera... why?

Not sure, just a thought.

I agree with you in principle here - the "active lurkers" like worcej and rivera and Chaqa are typically where mafia are going to be when town is at each other's throats (as it increasingly feels right now). They obviously can be among the near totally absent like Macca and emc, but that's less likely to be alignment-indicative and more likely to be indicative of either IRL business getting in the way or a predisposition to lurking. emc certainly fits the latter bill these days. Macca was pretty active last game, so I'm a little more concerned there.

I can't point to a specific post off the top of my head as to why I townread rivera, and to tell the truth it's possible he should be in the null pile, but whenever he chimes in I feel like he's looking at reasonable things and making constructive points.

Out of those four, I think:

- emc isn't especially suspicious. He obviously could be mafia, but I only really think so by POE, because he's not really doing anything one way or the other.
- Macca is more suspicious the more I think about it. They were really active and involved last game as town. Maybe it's a byproduct of thread energy - newer players' energy levels tend to correlate to town's overall energy level, and there's not a lot of optimism at the moment - but as I think more about it, I definitely expect more involvement.
- rivera tends to be a low-key poster regardless of alignment, I can't really place it but I don't think he's mafia here. I have moderate confidence in him being town but I admit the evidence doesn't really support it.
- worcej is uncharacteristically quiet and disengaged. I'm not holding him missing EOD against him, work shit happens, but I think a lot has happened over the last week of play time and he's just not been here for any of it and isn't doing anything to solve from it.

If it wasn’t explicitly clear to you - I am on a weekend vacation with my wife and child to Seattle.

Webdip is also being shitty with the long random loads making catching up fucking annoying, so here is a direct response: I missed EOD and the night phase I was driving to Seattle. There are 28-ish hours left in the phase for me to contribute.

Also - how am I disengaged otherwise? I was actively expressing my opinions on D1, so how have I been checked out exactly?

[Johnny Big Horse]

##Vote Jamiet

Why? Jamiet was on my suspicious list anyway. And I really think the shooter, chaqa and one of the shot, Jamie, is mafia.

Like I said, I don't try to use "reasoning" on evidence that usually isn't really evidence, like some of you.

Example:
Dictatorships are our enemies
UAE is a dictatorship
therefore UAE is our enemy.

That may seem good reasoning, except, dictatorships are not our enemies. And they are allied with Western nations. Good reasoning based on bad premises is worthless. And this is what you guys are doing.

I am trying instead a statistical approach. I make add checks to people's names when things seem fishy. More checks means more likely. Is this the best way? Who knows? It is a probability approac. But you guys are using reason, and therefore a black and white approach, and where does it get you? You all have different conclusions. Makes me think your reason approach is worthless.

I am sure I pissed you all off, but I am right. This game should be played statistically, not based on reasoning.

[worcej]

With an hour to go, EMC became “almost” a relevant wagon. With enough of a push they could have gone from 3 to 4, or more. Why didn’t that happen? Who got in the way?

If we look at the end vote it’s Food, Bomb, EMC. Was Brain saved by scum teammates moving to Food? Was EMC saved by scum teammates moving to food?

I think it’s a strong implication that there is scum on that Food wagon. Where I thought that it might have been protecting Brain, brain didn’t do a self-preservation vote. So slight town read of Brain. The D1 stuff still unnerves me. Maybe scum brain doesn't feel the need to self-preserve? Realized teammate will help out?

Brings us to the rest of the crew on Food. Rivera, ghug, chaqa, emc, jamie. At least one of them is scum.

If we DK Jamie, then that potentially gives us info about chaqa. Otherwise, with having lost their vest, they’re a good bet to take the mafia kill. Disregarding jamie, who of the other 4 would make a worthwhile flip?

IDK why no one voted EMC with me - I thought it was a very decent option considering the entrance and lack of contribution.

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Jamiet

Why? Jamiet was on my suspicious list anyway. And I really think the shooter, chaqa and one of the shot, Jamie, is mafia.

Like I said, I don't try to use "reasoning" on evidence that usually isn't really evidence, like some of you.

Example:
Dictatorships are our enemies
UAE is a dictatorship
therefore UAE is our enemy.

That may seem good reasoning, except, dictatorships are not our enemies. And they are allied with Western nations. Good reasoning based on bad premises is worthless. And this is what you guys are doing.

I am trying instead a statistical approach. I make add checks to people's names when things seem fishy. More checks means more likely. Is this the best way? Who knows? It is a probability approac. But you guys are using reason, and therefore a black and white approach, and where does it get you? You all have different conclusions. Makes me think your reason approach is worthless.

I am sure I pissed you all off, but I am right. This game should be played statistically, not based on reasoning.

Please provide the numbers that this vote is based on.

[Jamiet99uk]

I demand quantitative data

[Jamiet99uk]

I also want to know what "fishy" things I have said, please, Jonny Big Bollocks.

[Chaqa]

there is only one time where eden ever mentions damo all game and its n1 where he says he is probably town. there is only one momen where damo ever mentions eden and its day 1 where he says eden is kinda sus.

Eden is kinda sus, I tell no lie

Eden, what made you say you're stupid and unvote? What exactly went through your head there?

There’s too many people who should know better being fucking bad at this game and it’s messing up my ability to read mafia faking vs town lack of info grasping at straws. Brain apparently authentically believes that I townread damo higher than myself when even a five second look at my list compared to the player list in the OP would make it clear I was simply going down the player list and sorting the players into three piles. Wtf am I supposed to do with that? This guy actually thinks I townread damo more than I townread MYSELF.

I’m playing the exact same game I always play every single time and I always get townreads from these guys because I’m obviously fucking town, but somehow this time it’s different. Logically I think that’s supposed to come from town not having all the info, but my gut reaction is getting mad and thinking they’re faking it, so I am having trouble processing what I’m supposed to be doing.

Brain, if you wanted to know why not fucking ask? I thought it was really obvious damo was genuinely pissed off town, since he doesn’t lose his cool like that when he’s mafia. I think y’all get way too far up your asses about people potentially faking things.

Chaqa doesn’t actually think the order of my list is weird, he didn’t pay any attention to it and has no real opinion about it. He’s probably mafia faking. But worcej is completely absent in a very uncharacteristic way and needs to come out and play.

##VOTE worcej

It's not the kind of thing I catch, but I do find it interesting. As you're aware, I've been a little preoccupied lol

[Johnny Big Horse]

I also want to know what "fishy" things I have said, please, Jonny Big Bollocks.

It's just one vote. You know better than to sweat it. I am not going to supply my checklist. Make your own.

[Jamiet99uk]

I also want to know what "fishy" things I have said, please, Jonny Big Bollocks.

It's just one vote. You know better than to sweat it. I am not going to supply my checklist. Make your own.

You are accusing me, based on evidence you refuse to provide.

That's scummy.

[Chaqa]

I'm not claiming things aren't deep dives. I'm claiming the logic you're putting out doesn't hold up to the tiniest bit of scrutiny.

The worcej vote might be the most sensible thing you've done all game.

Sure it does. I never claimed any degree of certainty on anything mechanics-based, just that starting with people who claimed guns was a smart starting point since there could be at most 2 town with guns and since mafia are incentivized to take guns. That is a heuristic, which was employed in the first couple of hours of day 1, and which triggered enough of a reaction out of brainbomb that I thought he was actually mafia from behavior (acting like caught mafia begging to be allowed to play the game).

I thought and still think it's extremely bizarre that you and Chaqa are townreading each other. Y'all are always at each other's throats in these games and neither of you have acted obviously town in a way that I thought should have abated that tendency. I thought it even more bizarre neither of you shot the other. Turns out you apparently didn't have a gun, so that explains half of it, but it's still bizarre that Chaqa was out to shoot someone with a rose to clear them, that you claimed rose near EON, and he didn't shoot you.

You weren't just saying we should shoot in the gun claimamts, though. You were saying all of us were scum together, which is a laughably absurd place to take the argument. Saying the targets should be among the three of us would have been a town reaction, and in fact your progression on brain closely mirrored my own.

I, for my part, townread Chaqa because he claimed the gun in an environment that was already hostile to gun claimamts. I agree that it's a little weird he didn't shoot me, but certainly not gameshatteringly so, and I know that Chaqa believes he's quite good at reading me, which seems a plausible enough explanation.

You're grasping at straws to support your arguments again, rather than actually synthesizing information to decide what your arguments should be. My rose claim was absolutely irrelevant to Chaqa's night action, since I made it seconds before night ended.

I haven't misread your alignment in literally months lol

The twwo games you D1'd me I had you pinged as mafia, though i didn't get the time to push it

[Jamiet99uk]

Johnny doesn't actually care about trying to get me daykilled, he's just trying to give the impression he's making an effort.

That's scummy.

[worcej]

I think everyone who has been posting has had a material chance to claim except the following:

e.m.c
macca
worcej

(just going by time last posted)

The three of you, if you have any claims to make please do so today. If not, we must proceed as though you three have no claims to make (whether people are hiding or not is a different issue, but at the very least there's no reason why someone who was *shot* to not claim).

Did I not soft it well enough? I picked a rose.

[Chaqa]

I'm sorry, but in what world is Jamie possible scum?

If I were scum with a gun, I wouldn't EVER waste it clearing a teammate. I mean, I might think about doing it, but I'm sure my teammates (especially Jamie, in this case) would shoot it down and call me dumb

As an example, look at the ridiculous strategy I wanted to do when I was scum with Bunny and Damo a few games back.