M68: Guns N' Roses GAMETHREAD [hidden]

[snowy801]

that you claimed rose near EON, and he didn't shoot you.

Not to detract from the rest of your post, but ghug claimed at 5:59. Chaqa would likely not have had time to process and reorder.

[President Eden]

So I suppose we live now in a world where Eden thinks Chaqa at least was scum, used his scumgun / nk to shoot at Jamiet who in this world I imagine is loosely affiliated with being scum with rose, though Chaqa could've just been shooting town, and I'm... town who got shot by... scumgun / vig?

Versus brainbomb thinks I'm scum with rose who used factional nk on myself (scumgun excluded as he himself excluded it), and so must believe that Chaqa and Jamiet are equally town.

I genuinely think brainbomb's scenario is more likely than Eden's, frankly.

Let us suppose this mythical and wholly unrealistic scenario that all three of us are town and speak the truth, however. Why was I shot? It is difficult for me to discern between the "they hated me for speaking the truth" versus the more probable reason that they were just shooting someone who posted a lot and wasn't scum read too often. I especially weigh the fact that I was especially confused at EoD and didn't have a clear target that would make scum say "he knows too much, get him" so cannot really imagine a reason for someone thinking I'm a threat except possibly my constant calls to axe e.m.c., which may be confirmation bias, and invite opinions on this matter.

I think Chaqa is appreciably likely to be mafia, Jamie is more than likely town, and I have no idea why you were shot - but that if you're mafia it's far more likely that a townie shot you and didn't claim vs the mafia wasting their factional kill on themselves. Mafia has never done anything close to that before. It's a total red herring. Generously I'd put it at a 5% chance that happened, which means 19 out of 20 times it's a waste to even think about. It probably comes from town brainbomb but that doesn't make it any more worth thinking about.
I think you're town and I could plausibly see a townie shooting you, as you were under some suspicion and might have rubbed a gunner the wrong way, or the mafia shooting you because the mafia thinks you look townie and aren't a viable miskill. I have no insight as to which of those is the case.

[President Eden]

that you claimed rose near EON, and he didn't shoot you.

Not to detract from the rest of your post, but ghug claimed at 5:59. Chaqa would likely not have had time to process and reorder.

True, fair enough on that

[ghug]

Also it’s super frustrating that ghug judges my day 1 heuristic starting point votes like they should be day 5 deep dives when (1) he knows better (2) his own analysis is even more superficial (3) my opinions at least change as more info comes in and I start to root things more in behavior while he keeps to his superficial reads

Unclear if mafia or simply out of it but step your game up bro.

I'm not claiming things aren't deep dives. I'm claiming the logic you're putting out doesn't hold up to the tiniest bit of scrutiny.

The worcej vote might be the most sensible thing you've done all game.

Sure it does. I never claimed any degree of certainty on anything mechanics-based, just that starting with people who claimed guns was a smart starting point since there could be at most 2 town with guns and since mafia are incentivized to take guns. That is a heuristic, which was employed in the first couple of hours of day 1, and which triggered enough of a reaction out of brainbomb that I thought he was actually mafia from behavior (acting like caught mafia begging to be allowed to play the game).

I thought and still think it's extremely bizarre that you and Chaqa are townreading each other. Y'all are always at each other's throats in these games and neither of you have acted obviously town in a way that I thought should have abated that tendency. I thought it even more bizarre neither of you shot the other. Turns out you apparently didn't have a gun, so that explains half of it, but it's still bizarre that Chaqa was out to shoot someone with a rose to clear them, that you claimed rose near EON, and he didn't shoot you.

You weren't just saying we should shoot in the gun claimamts, though. You were saying all of us were scum together, which is a laughably absurd place to take the argument. Saying the targets should be among the three of us would have been a town reaction, and in fact your progression on brain closely mirrored my own.

I, for my part, townread Chaqa because he claimed the gun in an environment that was already hostile to gun claimamts. I agree that it's a little weird he didn't shoot me, but certainly not gameshatteringly so, and I know that Chaqa believes he's quite good at reading me, which seems a plausible enough explanation.

You're grasping at straws to support your arguments again, rather than actually synthesizing information to decide what your arguments should be. My rose claim was absolutely irrelevant to Chaqa's night action, since I made it seconds before night ended.

[Jamiet99uk]

I think scum expected more town to take guns so they had 1 scum member take a rose just in case. and it was snowy. and they used factional kill on him to false clear him

That would be one of the most extreme cases of fancy play syndrome I've ever seen in mafia. Way more likely that a town with a gun shot him and didn't claim the shot

If that is the case I would urge them to claim.

[Hamilton Brian]

All we know is more than one shot was fired.

What's a valid reason that someone wouldn't claim taking the shot OR getting shot?

If every single voter on the Food wagon was town, that'd be a travesty, probably improbable.

And now I am falling into my circuitous thinking again. I think I need to be more confident with my gut.

[Jamiet99uk]

My instinct that EMC is scum is really pretty strong.

I am occasionally right about some things, you know.

[ghug]

My instinct that EMC is scum is really pretty strong.

I am occasionally right about some things, you know.

I did not know that. Thank you for telling me.

[Jamiet99uk]

All we know is more than one shot was fired.

We know that there was a Mafia NK attempt plus at least one gunshot. The Mafia NK is a "shot" for flavour purposes. Excluding the Mafia factional NK, we have no information to suggest there was more than one other gunshot.

Both Snowy and myself are claiming to have been hit with exactly one shot.

[snowy801]

I think everyone who has been posting has had a material chance to claim except the following:

e.m.c
macca
worcej

(just going by time last posted)

The three of you, if you have any claims to make please do so today. If not, we must proceed as though you three have no claims to make (whether people are hiding or not is a different issue, but at the very least there's no reason why someone who was *shot* to not claim).

[Jamiet99uk]

My instinct that EMC is scum is really pretty strong.

I am occasionally right about some things, you know.

I did not know that. Thank you for telling me.

Get bent.

[rdrivera2005]

I also think the people truly flying under the radar aren't people like macca and emc, but worcej and rdrivera.

The truly exceptional lurkers are more noticeable than the barely passable, and I know a lot of people townread rivera... why?

Not sure, just a thought.

Because I am 100% confirmed vanilla town

I miss Kgray, by the way.

[snowy801]

I also think the people truly flying under the radar aren't people like macca and emc, but worcej and rdrivera.

The truly exceptional lurkers are more noticeable than the barely passable, and I know a lot of people townread rivera... why?

Not sure, just a thought.

Because I am 100% confirmed vanilla town

I miss Kgray, by the way.

How do I -1 a post

rivera, can you elaborate on what you find problematic with JBH?

[Hamilton Brian]

I also think the people truly flying under the radar aren't people like macca and emc, but worcej and rdrivera.

The truly exceptional lurkers are more noticeable than the barely passable, and I know a lot of people townread rivera... why?

Not sure, just a thought.

Because I am 100% confirmed vanilla town

I miss Kgray, by the way.

Who 100% confirmed you?

[rdrivera2005]

damo needs to die first no matter whatt. snowy will out himself by surviving too long if he is indeed faked. so im not concerned about him. hes definetely scum though

There is the point where your theory doesn´t make sense. If Snowy survives next two nights he will lose any town clearence he got being saved.

[rdrivera2005]

I also think the people truly flying under the radar aren't people like macca and emc, but worcej and rdrivera.

The truly exceptional lurkers are more noticeable than the barely passable, and I know a lot of people townread rivera... why?

Not sure, just a thought.

Because I am 100% confirmed vanilla town

I miss Kgray, by the way.

How do I -1 a post

rivera, can you elaborate on what you find problematic with JBH?

I said I want him to be shot. He is either scum or if he is town the scumteam would be working really hard to have him at milo. He isn´t really interacting or giving his reads other then "BB should be shot even if he is town".
The same reasoning is valid for emc.

[rdrivera2005]

I also think the people truly flying under the radar aren't people like macca and emc, but worcej and rdrivera.

The truly exceptional lurkers are more noticeable than the barely passable, and I know a lot of people townread rivera... why?

Not sure, just a thought.

Because I am 100% confirmed vanilla town

I miss Kgray, by the way.

Who 100% confirmed you?

This is a mostly a joke. But it´s also a towntell

[President Eden]

I'm not claiming things aren't deep dives. I'm claiming the logic you're putting out doesn't hold up to the tiniest bit of scrutiny.

The worcej vote might be the most sensible thing you've done all game.

Sure it does. I never claimed any degree of certainty on anything mechanics-based, just that starting with people who claimed guns was a smart starting point since there could be at most 2 town with guns and since mafia are incentivized to take guns. That is a heuristic, which was employed in the first couple of hours of day 1, and which triggered enough of a reaction out of brainbomb that I thought he was actually mafia from behavior (acting like caught mafia begging to be allowed to play the game).

I thought and still think it's extremely bizarre that you and Chaqa are townreading each other. Y'all are always at each other's throats in these games and neither of you have acted obviously town in a way that I thought should have abated that tendency. I thought it even more bizarre neither of you shot the other. Turns out you apparently didn't have a gun, so that explains half of it, but it's still bizarre that Chaqa was out to shoot someone with a rose to clear them, that you claimed rose near EON, and he didn't shoot you.

You weren't just saying we should shoot in the gun claimamts, though. You were saying all of us were scum together, which is a laughably absurd place to take the argument. Saying the targets should be among the three of us would have been a town reaction, and in fact your progression on brain closely mirrored my own.

I, for my part, townread Chaqa because he claimed the gun in an environment that was already hostile to gun claimamts. I agree that it's a little weird he didn't shoot me, but certainly not gameshatteringly so, and I know that Chaqa believes he's quite good at reading me, which seems a plausible enough explanation.

You're grasping at straws to support your arguments again, rather than actually synthesizing information to decide what your arguments should be. My rose claim was absolutely irrelevant to Chaqa's night action, since I made it seconds before night ended.

You're just arguing semantics in the bold and again throwing suspicion on me for what amounts to a play style and personality difference, just as I've been saying. I listed what I thought was my best guess at the team at the time. My arguments started with the mechanics info but developed into behavioral reads, as is clear if you would read what I'm saying with an open mind and not as though you have an agenda to tear it down no matter what.

You're now saying that our progression on brain was similar and that you see why I might think it weird how you and Chaqa were interacting, so what exactly is your issue with me?

[Jamiet99uk]

I also think the people truly flying under the radar aren't people like macca and emc, but worcej and rdrivera.

The truly exceptional lurkers are more noticeable than the barely passable, and I know a lot of people townread rivera... why?

Not sure, just a thought.

Because I am 100% confirmed vanilla town

I miss Kgray, by the way.

Who 100% confirmed you?

Is this sarcasm?

[President Eden]

I also think the people truly flying under the radar aren't people like macca and emc, but worcej and rdrivera.

The truly exceptional lurkers are more noticeable than the barely passable, and I know a lot of people townread rivera... why?

Not sure, just a thought.

I agree with you in principle here - the "active lurkers" like worcej and rivera and Chaqa are typically where mafia are going to be when town is at each other's throats (as it increasingly feels right now). They obviously can be among the near totally absent like Macca and emc, but that's less likely to be alignment-indicative and more likely to be indicative of either IRL business getting in the way or a predisposition to lurking. emc certainly fits the latter bill these days. Macca was pretty active last game, so I'm a little more concerned there.

I can't point to a specific post off the top of my head as to why I townread rivera, and to tell the truth it's possible he should be in the null pile, but whenever he chimes in I feel like he's looking at reasonable things and making constructive points.

Out of those four, I think:

- emc isn't especially suspicious. He obviously could be mafia, but I only really think so by POE, because he's not really doing anything one way or the other.
- Macca is more suspicious the more I think about it. They were really active and involved last game as town. Maybe it's a byproduct of thread energy - newer players' energy levels tend to correlate to town's overall energy level, and there's not a lot of optimism at the moment - but as I think more about it, I definitely expect more involvement.
- rivera tends to be a low-key poster regardless of alignment, I can't really place it but I don't think he's mafia here. I have moderate confidence in him being town but I admit the evidence doesn't really support it.
- worcej is uncharacteristically quiet and disengaged. I'm not holding him missing EOD against him, work shit happens, but I think a lot has happened over the last week of play time and he's just not been here for any of it and isn't doing anything to solve from it.